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ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

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  • Earl_Leatherland
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    Good grief, one of my alter egos has returned or someone stole his password. I see that I am still mentioned in your sig.

    When was the last time that you were either here or the Clarkson board?
    I have not posted for a number of years, but am on USCHO constantly throughout the year.

    I have been doing the instant replay review for Niagara University for the past 10 years, so keeping up with other goings on via USCHO is incredibly useful.
    Last edited by Earl_Leatherland; 03-07-2019, 01:05 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Originally posted by Earl_Leatherland View Post
    It is great to see this competition still going!

    It is not great to see my only claim to participation is one of the biggest losers.
    Good grief, one of my alter egos has returned or someone stole his password. I see that I am still mentioned in your sig.

    When was the last time that you were either here or the Clarkson board?

    Leave a comment:


  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Thanks, Lugnut and congrats Flaggie.

    Leave a comment:


  • TalonsUpPuckDown
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    First time caller, long time listener...it was fun, congrats FlagDUDE and I'm in next year.

    Leave a comment:


  • goldenbriggsy
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Congrats FlagDUDE08 on this win this season

    Leave a comment:


  • Earl_Leatherland
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    It is great to see this competition still going!

    It is not great to see my only claim to participation is one of the biggest losers.

    Leave a comment:


  • vicb
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Thanks for keeping the contest alive and well. Look forward to playing again next year.

    Leave a comment:


  • BIG Green
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    It's a worst-to-first story as FlagDUDE08 wins this year's ECAC Pick The Standings contest just a season after taking last place (among real people)! His score places him 7th of 17 among the pantheon of our previous winners. He somehow didn't get any teams exactly correct, but he did get 5 teams with one position (and 9 teams within two) of the real standings. His worst miss was Princeton in 4th place (remember this for later).

    As a whole, we did much better than last year, with 7 participants posting scores under 100 (up from one), the Fan Average improving by 58 points, and only one poster (me!) posting a score of 200 or worse (down from 16 last season). Last year's winner, goldenbriggsy, basically matched their performance from last year and took second place. Last year's overall loser "chose not to participate" but as I mentioned above, the worst real poster from last year did well for himself this time around.

    The non-poster picks did decently, as Mr. Last Year, the Media, and the Coaches all placed right in the middle of the standings. The Random Number was toward the bottom of the table, but did beat three posters and had one of its better performances of the last few seasons.

    I take last place, but I'll take consolation in the fact that I had the best ever last overall score, edging out Papa Smurf's 2005-06 season picks. Imagine if I wasn't a reckless homer about RPI!

    The long-distance travel pair had by far the biggest affect on our selections, as they combined to cost us an average of 73 points as we all overestimated Princeton and underestimated Quinnipiac. Conversely, we all did a good job of placing Clarkson, Cornell, Harvard, RPI, SLU, and Yale, which cost us fewer than four points each and were nailed by at least six of us. Looking more closely, SLU was picked in the correct position by 12 of us (over 25%), and Cornell lost us just 1.2 points as only two of us (including the RNG and Mr. Last Year) missed them by more than one spot.

    Thanks to everyone on their participation in this year's contest!

    Summary Graphs:


    (left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)


    Final standings:
    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    66         FlagDUDE08   68
     2    76      goldenbriggsy   80
     3    49            Rolevio   90
     4    20               Turk   92
     5    42  Bronco Hockey Fan   96
     6    70        Mike Hutter   98
          71   hockeyplayer1015   98
     8    36  iowabasedtraveler  102
     9    25         GoldenBear  104
          75         slumulva88  104
    11    37              sgt12  110
          62               TBRW  110
    13    29           TchrBill  112
          39       techtodenver  112
    15    26             Replay  114
          28            drshoen  114
          78    The Fan Average  114
    18    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  116
    19     2      Mr. Last Year  118
    20    43     TovarishchLisa  120
    21     2          The Media  122
          19         Ralph Baer  122
          53             cudmud  122
          62             Kepler  122
          69          BIG Green  122
    26    15          GreenBear  130
          34         fishcore12  130
          41    TheValleyRaider  130
    29     2        The Coaches  132
          50 still an empty net  132
    31     7      ecachawkeyfan  136
    32     3               vicb  138
          22           Saints#1  138
          60            jstadts  138
    35    54            capswon  140
          73           sshablak  140
    37    65            Rainman  142
    38    72           Dutchman  144
    39     6         ColSkate65  150
    40    59            bothman  154
    41    35         Go Puckman  162
    42    74          red133883  176
    43     2  The Random Number  178
    44    17            kdiff77  182
    45    58            Rjm7272  194
    46    44           lugnut92  224
     *     *                  *  114
    Two BG shout outs to Lug for constructing this whole fun contest, putting in the time and effort and Flag for bringing home the hardware! As for me, I picked BG to finish 4th, off by one and now off to the playoffs!

    Leave a comment:


  • Ralph Baer
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
    This year was arguably one of our best ever, though looking back at previous years with over 100 entries just kind of make me sad.
    That probably reflects the downturn in posting overall on USCHO.

    Leave a comment:


  • hockeyplayer1015
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    I believe this was my historical best performance.

    Thanks for running it! May the predictions be in your favor next year folks.

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Another summary graph, this time comparing the score distributions over the last 10 years. Hope you all like violin plots.



    This year was arguably one of our best ever, though looking back at previous years with over 100 entries just kind of make me sad. Also, the standings were apparently super predictable in 15-16. I had forgotten.

    Leave a comment:


  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    w00t!

    Are you doing Pick the Playoffs as well?

    Leave a comment:


  • ColSkate65
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    Thanks, lugnut, for running the contest this year. Always fun, even if I do poorly every season....:-(

    Leave a comment:


  • lugnut92
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    It's a worst-to-first story as FlagDUDE08 wins this year's ECAC Pick The Standings contest just a season after taking last place (among real people)! His score places him 7th of 17 among the pantheon of our previous winners. He somehow didn't get any teams exactly correct, but he did get 5 teams with one position (and 9 teams within two) of the real standings. His worst miss was Princeton in 4th place (remember this for later).

    As a whole, we did much better than last year, with 7 participants posting scores under 100 (up from one), the Fan Average improving by 58 points, and only one poster (me!) posting a score of 200 or worse (down from 16 last season). Last year's winner, goldenbriggsy, basically matched their performance from last year and took second place. Last year's overall loser "chose not to participate" but as I mentioned above, the worst real poster from last year did well for himself this time around.

    The non-poster picks did decently, as Mr. Last Year, the Media, and the Coaches all placed right in the middle of the standings. The Random Number was toward the bottom of the table, but did beat three posters and had one of its better performances of the last few seasons.

    I take last place, but I'll take consolation in the fact that I had the best ever last overall score, edging out Papa Smurf's 2005-06 season picks. Imagine if I wasn't a reckless homer about RPI!

    The long-distance travel pair had by far the biggest affect on our selections, as they combined to cost us an average of 73 points as we all overestimated Princeton and underestimated Quinnipiac. Conversely, we all did a good job of placing Clarkson, Cornell, Harvard, RPI, SLU, and Yale, which cost us fewer than four points each and were nailed by at least six of us. Looking more closely, SLU was picked in the correct position by 12 of us (over 25%), and Cornell lost us just 1.2 points as only two of us (including the RNG and Mr. Last Year) missed them by more than one spot.

    Thanks to everyone on their participation in this year's contest!

    Summary Graphs:


    (left: Violin plot of scores, right: Heat map of our deviations from reality)


    Final standings:
    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
     1    66         FlagDUDE08   68
     2    76      goldenbriggsy   80
     3    49            Rolevio   90
     4    20               Turk   92
     5    42  Bronco Hockey Fan   96
     6    70        Mike Hutter   98
          71   hockeyplayer1015   98
     8    36  iowabasedtraveler  102
     9    25         GoldenBear  104
          75         slumulva88  104
    11    37              sgt12  110
          62               TBRW  110
    13    29           TchrBill  112
          39       techtodenver  112
    15    26             Replay  114
          28            drshoen  114
          78    The Fan Average  114
    18    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  116
    19     2      Mr. Last Year  118
    20    43     TovarishchLisa  120
    21     2          The Media  122
          19         Ralph Baer  122
          53             cudmud  122
          62             Kepler  122
          69          BIG Green  122
    26    15          GreenBear  130
          34         fishcore12  130
          41    TheValleyRaider  130
    29     2        The Coaches  132
          50 still an empty net  132
    31     7      ecachawkeyfan  136
    32     3               vicb  138
          22           Saints#1  138
          60            jstadts  138
    35    54            capswon  140
          73           sshablak  140
    37    65            Rainman  142
    38    72           Dutchman  144
    39     6         ColSkate65  150
    40    59            bothman  154
    41    35         Go Puckman  162
    42    74          red133883  176
    43     2  The Random Number  178
    44    17            kdiff77  182
    45    58            Rjm7272  194
    46    44           lugnut92  224
     *     *                  *  114

    Leave a comment:


  • kdiff77
    replied
    Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

    I finish close to last in this every single year lol

    Leave a comment:

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