ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

[goldenbriggsy]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

1. Cornell
2. Clarkson
3. Princeton
4. Harvard
5. Union
6. Quinnipiac
7. Dartmouth
8. Yale
9. Colgate
10. Brown
11. RPI
12. SLU

[Ralph Baer]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Did anyone but me expect lugnut to post the contest standings first thing this morning? (Of course the standings could depend upon how he breaks ties.)

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Late Rankings

Because this wasn't posted until after two games had been played, you're not eligible to win and your entry was not included in The Fan Average, but I will post your score from week to week.

---

Here are the final statistics for all on-time human entries to the contest (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=43):

Team       | Mean±SD  | Median(Range) |
---------------------------------------
Cornell    |  1.6±1.1 |   1   ( 1- 6) |
Princeton  |  2.7±1.6 |   2   ( 1- 9) |
Union      |  3.6±1.6 |   3   ( 1- 7) |
Clarkson   |  3.8±1.6 |   4   ( 1- 9) |
Harvard    |  5.0±1.6 |   5   ( 2- 9) |
Quinnipiac |  6.4±1.5 |   7   ( 2- 9) |
Yale       |  6.9±1.6 |   7   ( 3- 9) |
Dartmouth  |  7.2±1.7 |   8   ( 3-10) |
Colgate    |  8.8±1.8 |   9   ( 4-12) |
RPI        | 10.6±1.9 |  11   ( 1-12) |
Brown      | 10.7±1.0 |  11   ( 8-12) |
SLU        | 10.7±1.4 |  11   ( 5-12) |

The highest consensus around any team was Brown, though Cornell received the most votes for a single position (28 votes, 1st). As always, RPI has the highest standard deviation, though if we ignore my annual delusion, Colgate would have the title. Yale has the fewest votes for its modal position (10 votes, 8th).

As with last year, no team was picked for every position, and no position had every team chosen at least once.

The Coaches and the Fan Average were in very tight agreement, with only SLU-Brown and Yale-Quinnipiac swapped. Of actual posters to the board, drshoen, Kepler, and TovarishchLisa were the closest to the average. Also I didn't notice until just now but sgt12 and TBRW made identical entries. At the other end, the Random Number was unsurprisingly the furthest away from the average. ColSkate65 holds that honor for USCHO posters.

Graphs:


(left: Mean ± SD, right: heat map of votes)

---

The season started and I AM VINDICATED! Okay, we're only four games in and there is still about 97% of the league schedule left to play, but based on all the evidence, RPI is going to go 22-0 in-conference and I'm the smartest. At the other end of the table is Mike Hutter, but again, a lot of hockey left to play. Here are your first real standings:

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    44           lugnut92  262
 2    35         Go Puckman  288
 3    17            kdiff77  294
 4     2  The Random Number  296
 5    36  iowabasedtraveler  324
      42  Bronco Hockey Fan  324
 7    77                ***  328
 8    20               Turk  330
 9    19         Ralph Baer  332
      54            capswon  332
11     3               vicb  334
12    39       techtodenver  336
      41    TheValleyRaider  336
14    74          red133883  340
15    29           TchrBill  350
16     6         ColSkate65  354
17     2          The Media  358
18    34         fishcore12  362
19     2        The Coaches  364
20    25         GoldenBear  366
21    26             Replay  374
      40   TalonsUpPuckDown  374
      76      goldenbriggsy  374
24    62             Kepler  376
      79    The Fan Average  376
26    22           Saints#1  378
      28            drshoen  378
28    53             cudmud  380
29    15          GreenBear  382
30    66         FlagDUDE08  386
31    58            Rjm7272  388
32    69          BIG Green  390
33    73           sshablak  392
34    75         slumulva88  394
35     2      Mr. Last Year  396
      50 still an empty net  396
37    72           Dutchman  398
38    43     TovarishchLisa  404
39    49            Rolevio  406
      71   hockeyplayer1015  406
41    65            Rainman  410
42    60            jstadts  412
43    37              sgt12  414
      59            bothman  414
      62               TBRW  414
46     7      ecachawkeyfan  416
47    70        Mike Hutter  424

Because half the league hasn't played an ECAC contest yet, I had to invent a bunch of tiebreakers. First was ECAC games played, then overall win percentage and overall games played, and finally shot differential (because both non-RPI-Union-ECAC games were decided by one goal). None of this will matter in five months, but here we are for now.

[johnk]

[QUOTE=lugnut92;6716148]Because this wasn't posted until after two games had been played, you're not eligible to win and your entry was not included in The Fan Average, but I will post your score from week to week.

---

Here are the final statistics for all on-time human entries to the contest (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=43):[code]


I deleted mine.

[johnk]

Thanks JohnK, it was getting quite confusing... is he in? Is he not in? Did he take advantage of us by waiting two games? Or did he not? Was it an honest mistake? Or was it not? Finally, those questions are off the table.

I was late. My fault.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Hang on a sec... who has the censored name? Was that johnk?

Too bad Doc and Jenny didn't make it. Was going to be interesting to see what sort of expensive jewelry Jenny gets this year.

[DrDemento]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Hang on a sec... who has the censored name? Was that johnk?

Too bad Doc and Jenny didn't make it. Was going to be interesting to see what sort of expensive jewelry Jenny gets this year.

Completely forgot about the yearly contest. Had looked a few weeks ago but forget to look again. Made the mistake of looking for a post by VicB and forgot the great job that Lugnut has done. I am fairly sure that Jenny has just about everything Cartier and Bvlgari has ever made. She has a parure of so many collections that she could open up her own estate jewelry store. if we meet up at a game, do not allow her to talk to FlagDudette about her collections of jewelry, figurines or so many other things. She is one of those who believes whoever dies with the most toys, wins. high maintenance? It is like being with a Bugatti Veyron with all the options included!

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Hang on a sec... who has the censored name? Was that johnk?

Yes, johnk's submission is the censored entry.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Completely forgot about the yearly contest. Had looked a few weeks ago but forget to look again. Made the mistake of looking for a post by VicB and forgot the great job that Lugnut has done. I am fairly sure that Jenny has just about everything Cartier and Bvlgari has ever made. She has a parure of so many collections that she could open up her own estate jewelry store. if we meet up at a game, do not allow her to talk to FlagDudette about her collections of jewelry, figurines or so many other things. She is one of those who believes whoever dies with the most toys, wins. high maintenance? It is like being with a Bugatti Veyron with all the options included!

Oh, I'm sure, given when we walk around in the mall and pass by the Swarovski store, I have to remind her that's 12 years away. However, she's far from high maintenance, so Jenny probably won't be getting a buyer to help the estate anytime soon.

[Kepler]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Graphs:


(left: Mean ± SD, right: heat map of votes)

I love the heat map! How did you generate it?

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

I love the heat map! How did you generate it?

GraphPad Prism. One of the benefits of still being in school is free access to all sorts of software.

[Kepler]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

GraphPad Prism. One of the benefits of still being in school is free access to all sorts of software.

Do you know whether there's web generation functionality beyond creating image files for import? I have been looking for really nice statistically-driven visual imagery for my hobby website.

What I really want is whatever 538 uses. They are BEAUTIFUL.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

How great is it to have a full weekend of conference games? 12 games that really count and matter. It's amazing. Anyway, I hold on to my tenuous lead in this contest with a weekend split from RPI. Meanwhile, ColSkate65 plummeted from 16th overall to last among us real people (the RNG is in the lastest last position, though not by much). Here are this week's standings:

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    44           lugnut92  102
 2    35         Go Puckman  116
 3     3               vicb  144
 4    54            capswon  146
 5    41    TheValleyRaider  152
 6    36  iowabasedtraveler  156
 7     2          The Media  158
 8    39       techtodenver  160
 9    42  Bronco Hockey Fan  162
10     2        The Coaches  168
11    19         Ralph Baer  170
12    28            drshoen  174
      62             Kepler  174
      78    The Fan Average  174
15    26             Replay  180
16    17            kdiff77  182
      69          BIG Green  182
18    15          GreenBear  184
19    29           TchrBill  186
20     7      ecachawkeyfan  192
21     2      Mr. Last Year  194
22    73           sshablak  196
23    37              sgt12  200
      62               TBRW  200
      72           Dutchman  200
26    20               Turk  202
27    43     TovarishchLisa  208
      71   hockeyplayer1015  208
      75         slumulva88  208
      76      goldenbriggsy  208
31    74          red133883  212
32    58            Rjm7272  216
33    50 still an empty net  218
34    25         GoldenBear  220
      60            jstadts  220
      65            Rainman  220
37    70        Mike Hutter  230
38    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  232
39    53             cudmud  234
40    49            Rolevio  242
41    22           Saints#1  248
42    34         fishcore12  250
43    66         FlagDUDE08  260
44    59            bothman  288
45     6         ColSkate65  310
46     2  The Random Number  334
 *     *                  *  170

I think I implemented all of the tiebreakers correctly:
Cornell-Dartmouth-Yale-Union : Broken first by games played (Cornell on top, Union on bottom), H2H tie, wins tie, then broken by points against top-4 teams (Dartmouth 0pts/0GP; Yale 0pts/1GP)
Clarkson-Quinnipiac : GP, H2H, and wins tie, broken by points against top-4 teams (Clarkson 2pts/1GP; Quinnipiac 0pts/1GP)
Colgate-Brown-Harvard : Games played pops out Colgate, H2H, wins, and points against top-4 tie, then Harvard wins on points against top-8 (Harvard 1pt/3GP; Brown 0pts/2GP)

Not that it matters.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Not quite a full slate of games and four teams still only have 2 GP, but at the two-elevenths pole of the ECAC schedule, we have a new leader as Go Puckman jumps into the top spot. At the other end, ColSkate65 continues to hold down the bottom human spot by a fair margin. Here are this week's standings:

Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw
 1    35         Go Puckman  116
 2    44           lugnut92  118
 3    54            capswon  138
 4     3               vicb  150
 5    17            kdiff77  152
 6    69          BIG Green  156
 7    26             Replay  158
 8     2          The Media  162
      15          GreenBear  162
10    41    TheValleyRaider  164
      73           sshablak  164
12    28            drshoen  170
      78    The Fan Average  170
14     2        The Coaches  172
      62             Kepler  172
16    75         slumulva88  184
17    42  Bronco Hockey Fan  186
18    36  iowabasedtraveler  188
19    70        Mike Hutter  190
20     7      ecachawkeyfan  192
      19         Ralph Baer  192
      74          red133883  192
23    37              sgt12  194
      62               TBRW  194
25    43     TovarishchLisa  196
26    58            Rjm7272  198
      71   hockeyplayer1015  198
28    20               Turk  200
29    39       techtodenver  202
30    72           Dutchman  202
31    29           TchrBill  204
32    60            jstadts  206
33    65            Rainman  210
34    76      goldenbriggsy  214
35    25         GoldenBear  218
36    40   TalonsUpPuckDown  224
      50 still an empty net  224
38    34         fishcore12  234
39     2      Mr. Last Year  242
40    66         FlagDUDE08  246
41    22           Saints#1  254
      49            Rolevio  254
43    59            bothman  270
44    53             cudmud  288
45     6         ColSkate65  326
46     2  The Random Number  358
 *     *                  *  142

Ties were really easy this week, as they could all be broken by games played or H2H (hahahahahahaha suck it union).

[ColSkate65]

Re: ECAC Pick The Standings 2018-2019

Geez...I can't catch a break. I believe I was last a couple of seasons ago, and now I'm at the bottom again?? Is this game fixed lugnut? Anyway, thanks for running the contest lugnut.