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2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

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  • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

    Originally posted by D2D View Post
    I really think if the two teams played each other three more times SCSU would win them all.
    Statistically speaking you're right. I was looking at a research study recently using an OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression model that examined favorite vs. underdog in single elimination contests in NCAA basketball with a large sample population consisting of 35 years of Final Four tournament regional semi-final and final games.

    The study assumptions included the concept of equilibrium in which each player maximizes the probability of winning the tournament by a predictor variable of effort allocation decisions. Ability differences between players are therefore compressed in the opening round so upsets are more likely.

    Higher effort in the semi-final increases the chance of making it to the final, but at the opportunity cost of a lower chance of succeeding in the final. A favorite plays a weak opponent in the semi-final, but is likely to face a tough opponent in the final, so it has a strong incentive to hold back.

    Conversely, an underdog already plays a tough opponent in the semi-final, so it has less incentive to conserve effort for the final. Because of these different incentives, the study results indicated that in any symmetric Nash equilibrium underdogs exert more effort than favorites in the semi-final. Upsets in the first round are often the result of restrained effort by the favorite (especially since the NCAA's introduction of the "rest day" before the final).

    EDIT:

    The research above seems to have external validity given that for the 13th straight year, a No. 4 seed beat a No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA tournament.
    Last edited by SteveO; 03-24-2018, 05:05 AM.

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    • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

      Originally posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
      Just call it what it was. A choke job. We looked terrified the first ten minutes of the game.
      Assuming "choke job" is accurate, then how - and why - did it happen?

      Nervousness?
      Overconfidence?
      Mental preparation?
      Execution?
      Game plan?
      All of the above?

      To my eyes, bad luck had as much to do with it as anything.
      Minnesota Golden Gopher Hockey

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      • Originally posted by D2D View Post
        Assuming "choke job" is accurate, then how - and why - did it happen?

        Nervousness?
        Overconfidence?
        Mental preparation?
        Execution?
        Game plan?
        All of the above?

        To my eyes, bad luck had as much to do with it as anything.
        Nervousness. They had been thinking about Ferris State since the point it was evident that they were going to be a high seed in the tournament. I think they psyched themselves out. Just my opinion but that's what I get from watching the game and having heard the captain of the team talking about it a month ago.
        Originally posted by SJHovey
        Pretty sure this post, made on January 3, 2016, when UNO was 14-3-1 and #2 in the pairwise, will go down in USCHO lore as The Curse of Tipsy McStagger.
        Originally posted by Brenthoven
        We mourn for days after a loss, puff out our chests for a week or more after we win. We brave the cold for tailgates, our friends know not to ask about the game after a tough loss, we laugh, we cry, we BLEED hockey, specifically the maroon'n'gold. Many of us have a tattoo waiting in the wings, WHEN (not IF) the Gophers are champions again.

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        • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

          We knew they were going to come hard. We prepared for it all week at practice. That was frustrating but we tried to stay the course” said Junior forward Robby Jackson. Said Coach Motzko “We were nervous in the first period – that first power play was nerves.”
          Originally posted by SJHovey
          Pretty sure this post, made on January 3, 2016, when UNO was 14-3-1 and #2 in the pairwise, will go down in USCHO lore as The Curse of Tipsy McStagger.
          Originally posted by Brenthoven
          We mourn for days after a loss, puff out our chests for a week or more after we win. We brave the cold for tailgates, our friends know not to ask about the game after a tough loss, we laugh, we cry, we BLEED hockey, specifically the maroon'n'gold. Many of us have a tattoo waiting in the wings, WHEN (not IF) the Gophers are champions again.

          Comment


          • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

            But typically "nervousness" tends to wane as the game ensues and can't be systemically factored across all players. Reflecting on the previous loss in 2016 normally would compel players to put more effort into their performance.

            That seems to be the case here with > twice as many TSA by SCSU/78 v. AF/38. But judging by blocked shots (AF/29 v. SCSU/5), the effort by AF was more consistent throughout the game.

            IMO, SCSU's lack of execution; and AF's extraordinary 60 min. effort and "shot blk" game plan iced the upset. AF keyed in on Eyssimont and Schuldt. Out of a combined 26 total shot attempts = 12 blks, 3 wide, 11 SVs (only a couple grade A chances).

            Sorry about the loss SCSU fans. This one is more of a stinger than 2016, especially since this was projected by many to be SCSU's year (I certainly thought so).
            Last edited by SteveO; 03-24-2018, 01:20 AM.

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            • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

              I think it was a combination of worrying too much about the other team (not in your control- Ferris was on their minds) and focusing on your own game (in your control) explaining the nerves and the sloppy and complacent play at the beginning of the game.
              When you see 3 clears in one PK that come out wobbly and right to the other team you can bet something else was going on. It wasn't the Husky team we saw all year until they were down 2-0.
              Bob and Patrick Newell in the post game disagreed but like SteveO said it wasn't the whole team is was 2 or 3 players and I don't want to single them out because it's unfair with the great seasons they had.

              You have to credit Air Force for jumping on, outworking and cashing in on those opportunities.

              Another contributing factor is SCSU's schedule the second half of the season. Since the Princeton series on 28-29Dec the Huskies haven't had a weekend off due to Hockey day Minnesota this year.
              Starman brought up the week to week toll including the Frozen Faceoff.

              Just getting a mental break from the game would have been huge for these young guys. It just wasn't meant to be this year.

              I am looking forward to next year, with only 3 Seniors leaving and hopefully few moving on we should have another great season next year.

              Congrats to the Penrose Cup Champs, thanks for the memories and great play this year. Good luck in the future to Judd, Blake and Mika!

              Go Huskies!!!

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              • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

                Borgen and Peterson sign with Buffalo.
                "If you leave ignorance and stupidity alone, ignorance and stupidity will think it's ok."
                -Gallagher

                R.I.P.
                Grandpa G. ~ Feb 11, 1918-Oct. 6, 1999
                Grandma ~ Jan 2004
                Dad ~ Nov. 4, 1958-April 21, 2008
                Grandpa S. ~ June 21, 1932-November 11, 2013

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                • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

                  Before the loss to Air Force, I thought Schuldt would be an early loss too. But now, maybe not. Borgen is not a big surprise. I don't think R. Poehling is quite ready to bail even though he's a first round pick. And even if they lose one or two of those players early, they had some great freshman play this season too. Fitzgerald, Brodzinski, B. Lizotte, Hrenak, and Jaycox all played and contributed significantly this season. They're in good shape to be an NCAA tournament team again next season.

                  I'm not sure which loss is worse, the one to Ferris State (in St Paul) or this one. That team they had 2 years ago was statistically better than this one based on the fact that they won 31 games, but this one was a higher seed. They're both bad, demoralizing, depressing losses. The days of higher seeds advancing most of the time is over. The gap between these teams have closed in recent years.

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                  • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

                    Originally posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
                    Alright! Let's call the NCAA and have them play best of 3!

                    Just call it what it was. A choke job. We looked terrified the first ten minutes of the game. Luckily escaped the first period tied. Then made two lazy, terrible passes that cost us two goals. Happy with the way our guys fought back and played in the second half of the game, but it was too late. You can't give a team like that a two goal lead. They had three guys in front of the net every time we had the puck in their zone. And their guys played fearless.

                    This is the second time in 3 years we have squandered a really favorable draw. We had a regional in St Paul to ourselves and blew it to an inferior team. #1 seeds playing within driving distance to that point had won like 90-95% of the time or something crazy like that. Not St. Cloud, though. THIS YEAR, we had not only a regional within driving distance, the Frozen Four was in St. Paul. Minnesota in 2002, Duluth in 2011, hey that could be us. That should be us. Of course not. Become only the second #1 overall seed to lose in the first round.

                    This is like re-living that Vikings loss all over again two months later. I might have to take up rock climbing or something because I can't take this crap anymore.
                    Huskies are the Vikings of college hockey. So frustrating. Beat the #16 and #12 and you are in the Frozen Four, essentially at home. It doesn't set up any better than that. Above average regular season team. Below average tournament team. I don't know what it will take for this program to take the next full step.

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                    • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

                      Any concerns about anyone else leaving early?

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                      • Originally posted by Bender14 View Post
                        Any concerns about anyone else leaving early?
                        Schuldt and Eyssimont are the only ones IMO
                        "If you leave ignorance and stupidity alone, ignorance and stupidity will think it's ok."
                        -Gallagher

                        R.I.P.
                        Grandpa G. ~ Feb 11, 1918-Oct. 6, 1999
                        Grandma ~ Jan 2004
                        Dad ~ Nov. 4, 1958-April 21, 2008
                        Grandpa S. ~ June 21, 1932-November 11, 2013

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

                          Agreed with those two and possibly Jackson. Heard that if he gets an offer NHL or AHL he will be jumping on it. Wondering if there is a list of players that will no doubt joining the Huskies next season? I believe most of the lineup barring anymore early departures could be nearly 90 percent intact just trying to see who could possibly be filling the gaps.

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                          • Originally posted by Bender14 View Post
                            Agreed with those two and possibly Jackson. Heard that if he gets an offer NHL or AHL he will be jumping on it. Wondering if there is a list of players that will no doubt joining the Huskies next season? I believe most of the lineup barring anymore early departures could be nearly 90 percent intact just trying to see who could possibly be filling the gaps.
                            Jackson is going nowhere. He loves it here.

                            "Right now, I'm playing a video game and I'm not worried about it too much," he said of pro hockey. "There's plenty of time to decide. Right now, I'm making sure I pass my classes this semester so that I can be eligible for my senior season."

                            Doesn't sound like someone ready to jump on an offer.

                            As for recruits...
                            We have Nolan Walker, Micah Miller and Nathan Burke for forward and Nick Perbix, Brendan Bushy and Spencer Meier for D.
                            "If you leave ignorance and stupidity alone, ignorance and stupidity will think it's ok."
                            -Gallagher

                            R.I.P.
                            Grandpa G. ~ Feb 11, 1918-Oct. 6, 1999
                            Grandma ~ Jan 2004
                            Dad ~ Nov. 4, 1958-April 21, 2008
                            Grandpa S. ~ June 21, 1932-November 11, 2013

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

                              Any of you know if St. Cloud is coming out to play BC next year?

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                              • Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt

                                Originally posted by Bender14 View Post
                                Any concerns about anyone else leaving early?
                                Motzko, apparently.
                                "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984

                                "One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir

                                "Good news! We have a delivery." Professor Farnsworth

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