Announcement

**lugnut92** · 01-02-2018, 01:42 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Here we are on the other side of the Christmas break. No more ECAC games have been played, but pretty much everyone has played a couple games, which should make their KRACH values more accurate. I'm doing this now instead of waiting until Tuesday and Wednesday's games are played because I feel like it. So the clashes at the dividing lines are going fine, with the 3-5 and 6-10 battles both within a couple of wins.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^40.08 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Colgate
Union
—————
Harvard
Princeton
Quinnipiac
Dartmouth
—————
Yale
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  608.6 |  76.6  23.1   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.24 | 39.07
Cr |  594.9 |  23.3  74.0   2.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.80 | 36.51
Cg |  107.8 |   0.1   1.9  48.4  29.8  12.7   4.4   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 26.94
Un |   92.0 |   0.0   0.9  34.6  34.5  19.2   6.6   2.6   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.11 | 25.85
Ha |   83.1 |   0.0   0.1  12.0  24.7  33.3  15.0   7.4   3.9   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.1 |  5.08 | 23.31
Pr |   76.2 |     x   0.0   1.1   4.8  13.5  24.6  20.3  14.9  10.4   6.7   3.0   0.6 |  7.01 | 19.56
Qu |   58.4 |     x   0.0   0.4   2.2   8.0  17.8  19.8  17.8  14.6  11.2   6.6   1.7 |  7.73 | 18.24
Da |   50.6 |     x   0.0   0.4   1.9   5.8  12.6  16.7  17.6  16.4  14.6  10.6   3.4 |  8.22 | 17.46
Ya |   50.1 |     x     x   0.2   1.1   3.9   8.9  13.8  17.8  20.2  19.3  12.5   2.4 |  8.58 | 16.87
Br |   44.1 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.7   7.5  12.2  16.8  20.7  22.2  14.3   2.9 |  8.82 | 16.37
RP |   33.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   2.5   5.0   8.1  12.4  19.1  35.9  16.1 | 10.10 | 13.93
SL |   27.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   5.7  16.8  72.8 | 11.54 |  9.89

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  608.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.0   6.7  10.1  13.7  16.0  16.4  13.6   9.5   4.5   1.7 | 39.07
Cr |  594.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.3   5.6   8.6  11.9  14.6  15.7  14.6  11.2   7.1   3.2   1.1     x     x | 36.51
Cg |  107.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.0   5.9   7.8   9.8  11.1  11.7  11.2  10.1   8.1   6.0   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.94
Un |   92.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.2   8.2  10.5  11.6  12.4  11.5  10.1   7.7   5.6   3.5   2.1   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 25.85
Ha |   83.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.4   5.1   7.3   9.2  11.1  11.8  11.9  10.6   8.9   6.6   4.5   2.7   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.31
Pr |   76.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.5   4.4   6.5   9.3  11.2  12.9  12.6  11.9   9.4   7.3   4.6   2.8   1.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.56
Qu |   58.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.2   5.0   7.8   9.9  12.1  12.7  12.6  10.8   8.8   6.1   4.0   2.2   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.24
Da |   50.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   5.1   7.1   9.4  10.9  11.9  11.7  10.7   8.8   6.8   4.7   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.46
Ya |   50.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.6   3.7   5.8   9.0  11.2  13.5  13.3  12.6  10.1   7.7   4.9   3.0   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.87
Br |   44.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.3   4.8   7.1  10.6  12.3  14.0  13.0  11.6   8.8   6.2   3.8   2.2   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.37
RP |   33.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.9   6.0   8.9  10.9  12.7  12.6  11.9   9.8   7.6   5.2   3.4   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.93
SL |   27.6 |   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.1   4.2   6.3   9.1  10.9  12.4  12.2  11.5   9.5   7.5   5.2   3.4   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.89
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Pr    Qu    Da    Ya    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.9   1.3   1.2   1.4   3.9  10.2 |  80.1
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.5   1.2   1.6   2.0   2.3   6.5  15.2 |  70.1
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.5   3.0   4.6   4.9   5.9  12.7  26.9 |  36.9
Pr |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5         6.5   9.6  11.6  12.3  17.0  15.6 |   5.9
Qu |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5   4.5         9.2  11.8  12.9  14.0  10.5 |   2.6
Da |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5   3.6   6.7        10.7  11.6  11.7   7.8 |   2.3
Ya |     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   4.0   6.5   7.9        10.0   9.0   5.8 |   1.3
Br |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.6   4.5   5.8   7.0   8.2         8.3   4.5 |   0.7
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.5   3.0   3.2   3.6   3.3         1.4 |   0.2
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.3   0.4   0.3       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 01-10-2018, 09:27 AM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Real ECAC games! What a concept! We still have veeeeery tight races at the breaklines, so we could be looking at a hell of a second half. Woo!

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^35.78 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Colgate
Harvard
—————
Union
Quinnipiac
Yale
Princeton
—————
Dartmouth
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  693.3 |  70.8  29.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.29 | 39.09
Cr |  710.2 |  29.2  70.1   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.72 | 37.30
Cg |  107.1 |   0.0   0.5  41.7  28.3  19.5   6.3   2.3   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.03 | 25.85
Ha |  106.4 |   0.0   0.2  28.2  33.3  25.0   8.4   3.1   1.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.30 | 25.04
Un |   90.3 |   0.0   0.2  27.4  29.7  28.1   9.3   3.4   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.37 | 24.87
Qu |   74.6 |     x   0.0   0.9   4.1  12.0  29.4  21.1  14.5   9.5   5.6   2.3   0.6 |  6.93 | 19.58
Ya |   66.9 |     x   0.0   0.5   2.0   5.4  12.7  17.8  19.5  18.7  14.8   6.7   1.9 |  8.06 | 17.65
Pr |   71.9 |     x     x   0.1   0.9   3.8  13.3  19.1  19.7  18.4  15.2   7.1   2.4 |  8.19 | 17.42
Da |   52.9 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.0   3.5  11.2  16.2  18.4  18.8  17.8   9.3   3.6 |  8.43 | 17.01
Br |   51.1 |     x     x   0.1   0.7   2.6   8.2  14.0  18.2  21.2  21.6  10.2   3.1 |  8.66 | 16.56
RP |   32.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   3.2   6.5  13.9  37.8  36.6 | 10.92 | 12.29
SL |   41.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.6   3.0   5.6  10.7  26.5  51.6 | 11.10 | 11.34

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  693.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.8   6.6  10.1  13.7  16.2  16.5  13.6   9.5   4.5   1.8 | 39.09
Cr |  710.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.3   5.9   9.3  13.2  16.2  17.0  14.7  10.5   5.1   2.0     x     x | 37.30
Cg |  107.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.0   8.3  10.3  12.1  12.4  12.0  10.1   8.0   5.4   3.5   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 25.85
Ha |  106.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.1   5.5   7.7  10.7  12.3  13.7  12.5  11.3   8.2   5.8   3.2   1.8   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.04
Un |   90.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.7   5.7   8.7  10.7  13.0  13.0  12.6  10.2   8.0   5.1   3.2   1.6   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.87
Qu |   74.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.1   4.2   6.3   9.5  11.5  13.7  13.2  12.6   9.5   7.3   4.3   2.5   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.58
Ya |   66.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.3   3.9   6.8   9.0  12.0  12.9  13.5  11.7  10.0   6.9   4.7   2.6   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.65
Pr |   71.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.5   6.7  10.0  11.7  13.9  13.0  12.2   9.2   6.8   3.9   2.2   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.42
Da |   52.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.0   3.4   5.9   8.2  10.9  12.2  13.0  12.0  10.4   7.9   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.01
Br |   51.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.4   6.6  10.0  11.9  13.8  13.1  12.0   9.3   6.8   4.2   2.5   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.56
RP |   32.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.6   4.6   7.3  11.7  13.6  15.3  13.7  11.7   8.3   5.6   3.1   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.29
SL |   41.0 |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.9   3.2   5.5   7.5  10.0  11.2  12.2  11.5  10.5   8.4   6.4   4.4   2.8   1.6   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.34
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Ha    Un    Qu    Ya    Pr    Da    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.0   1.8   9.4  12.4 |  70.4
Ha |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   1.7   1.9   2.6   2.7  13.1  15.2 |  61.7
Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.6   1.8   2.1   2.8   2.9  14.4  17.5 |  57.3
Qu |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1         8.8   9.1  10.2  12.3  19.2  17.1 |   5.0
Ya |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.2   3.8         9.1  10.3  11.6  10.7   9.5 |   2.5
Pr |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.6   9.9        11.1  11.5  10.8   8.7 |   1.0
Da |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.8   9.1   8.0        11.2   9.4   7.4 |   1.2
Br |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.6   7.8   9.1   8.5         7.4   6.3 |   0.9
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   1.2   0.9   0.9   1.0         0.4 |   0.0
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   0.9   1.1   1.1   1.0   0.6       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 01-14-2018, 07:57 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Sweet, sweet twelve-game weekend in early January. The best. Well, Colgate didn't do so hot, so they dropped out of bye territory, but the gap between 5th and 3rd remains under one point. Same basic deal between 7th and 9th. Like it has been all season.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^30.06 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Clarkson
Cornell
Harvard
Union
—————
Colgate
Yale
Quinnipiac
Princeton
—————
Dartmouth
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  706.0 |  85.8  14.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.14 | 39.80
Cr |  548.7 |  14.2  84.6   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.87 | 36.29
Ha |  110.3 |   0.0   0.3  37.4  33.1  21.2   6.3   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.01 | 26.03
Un |   92.1 |   0.0   0.5  30.3  30.5  25.9   9.1   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  4.25 | 25.45
Cg |   98.2 |   0.0   0.4  28.7  27.9  27.1  10.9   3.3   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.36 | 25.07
Ya |   82.2 |     x   0.0   2.2   6.7  15.3  28.2  20.0  13.7   8.9   3.9   1.1   0.1 |  6.60 | 20.48
Qu |   66.0 |     x     x   0.1   0.6   3.9  16.8  23.5  21.5  17.8  10.9   4.3   0.6 |  7.83 | 18.32
Pr |   73.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.5  13.2  20.8  22.6  20.5  14.1   5.3   0.8 |  8.12 | 17.68
Da |   54.0 |     x     x   0.1   0.8   3.3  11.6  18.2  21.8  21.6  15.1   6.3   1.1 |  8.20 | 17.57
Br |   45.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.1   8.0  13.1  20.1  32.2  19.9   2.9 |  9.39 | 15.34
RP |   34.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.2   4.7   9.4  21.2  54.6   7.2 | 10.40 | 13.38
SL |   32.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.6   8.5  87.3 | 11.81 |  8.59

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  706.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.2   7.3  11.4  15.2  17.8  16.6  13.4   7.1   3.3 | 39.80
Cr |  548.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.9   9.4  13.4  16.2  17.3  14.5  10.5   4.7   2.1     x     x     x | 36.29
Ha |  110.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.4   4.9   7.5  11.6  13.3  15.6  13.7  12.2   7.9   5.2   2.4   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.03
Un |   92.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   3.9   7.1   9.4  12.9  13.4  14.3  11.7   9.9   6.2   4.1   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.45
Cg |   98.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.0   5.4   7.6  10.7  12.3  13.8  12.7  11.3   8.3   5.9   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.07
Ya |   82.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.7   6.9   9.3  12.9  13.6  14.7  12.0  10.1   6.3   4.1   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.48
Qu |   66.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.2   6.3  11.0  12.7  16.0  14.1  13.3   8.7   6.1   2.8   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.32
Pr |   73.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.2   5.3   9.5  11.7  15.6  14.6  14.5  10.0   7.4   3.6   1.9   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.68
Da |   54.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.1   6.3  10.0  12.1  14.4  13.6  12.6   9.5   6.8   4.0   2.2   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.57
Br |   45.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.2   3.8   7.7  10.1  14.0  14.1  14.5  11.5   9.2   5.7   3.5   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.34
RP |   34.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.9   7.8  10.4  15.5  15.2  15.6  11.8   9.0   5.2   3.0   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.38
SL |   32.0 |   0.3   0.7   2.3   4.0   7.3   9.7  12.6  13.2  13.2  11.4   9.3   6.5   4.4   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.59
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ck    Cr    Ha    Un    Cg    Ya    Qu    Pr    Da    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Cr |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   0.9   0.8   2.2   5.7  18.7 |  70.9
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.2   0.9   1.2   1.4   3.5   7.8  23.6 |  61.3
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.2   1.4   1.9   1.7   4.3   8.3  24.7 |  57.0
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1         6.2   7.9   8.9  15.8  21.8  16.5 |   8.9
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   3.6        11.7  10.5  17.5  16.5   5.7 |   0.7
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   3.7   8.2        13.4  15.2  14.3   4.0 |   0.3
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   3.6   9.8   8.8        14.9  13.2   4.6 |   0.9
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.8   4.6   6.7   5.8         4.6   1.2 |   0.1
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.8   1.5   1.7   1.5         0.3 |   0.0
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 01-21-2018, 01:11 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

We have a lead change to announce! Clarkson only pulling one point at home has dropped them below Cornell for the first time in two months. Our big **** heroes in green, Dartmouth, jumped quite a few spots with their upset of Clarkson (and also beating SLU, but who doesn't beat SLU, I mean honestly). The battle for a bye has calmed, as the 4th place Dutchmen are projected to outpace Colgate by over 3 points, but the struggle for first round home ice lives on, with Quinnipiac and Princeton separated by less than a point.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^25.29 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Harvard
Union
—————
Colgate
Dartmouth
Yale
Quinnipiac
—————
Princeton
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  631.8 |  58.3  41.1   0.6   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.42 | 37.39
Ck |  465.6 |  41.6  57.1   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.60 | 36.33
Ha |  132.2 |   0.0   1.1  47.9  34.2  12.9   3.1   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.71 | 27.61
Un |  104.2 |   0.0   0.6  38.4  39.1  17.1   3.8   0.8   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.88 | 27.14
Cg |   93.5 |   0.0   0.1  10.7  20.0  36.9  18.0   8.8   4.0   1.3   0.3   0.0     x |  5.13 | 23.97
Da |   76.8 |     x   0.0   0.9   4.3  16.9  30.7  22.8  14.6   7.5   2.3   0.1   0.0 |  6.56 | 21.22
Ya |   83.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   9.9  19.6  23.4  22.8  17.1   5.1   0.1   0.0 |  7.27 | 20.03
Qu |   76.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.9  13.6  22.8  25.6  21.8  10.3   1.5   0.1 |  7.84 | 18.97
Pr |   78.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.1   9.9  16.5  22.6  27.5  18.9   2.1   0.1 |  8.29 | 18.06
Br |   47.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.4   4.1   9.9  23.4  54.4   6.4   0.2 |  9.44 | 15.48
RP |   29.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.4   8.3  85.6   4.4 | 10.92 | 11.39
SL |   27.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   4.2  95.2 | 11.95 |  6.39

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  631.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.4   4.9   8.9  13.5  18.0  18.7  17.1   9.7   5.3 | 37.39
Ck |  465.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   3.1   5.9   9.2  13.6  16.0  17.6  14.2  11.0   4.7   2.3 | 36.33
Ha |  132.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   3.0   5.1   9.8  12.0  16.8  15.0  15.4   9.6   7.1   2.8   1.4   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.61
Un |  104.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.2   3.7   8.2  10.4  15.5  14.6  15.9  11.2   9.1   4.5   2.7   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 27.14
Cg |   93.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.1   5.0   8.4  10.6  13.8  13.7  14.0  10.8   8.6   4.9   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.97
Da |   76.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.8   4.5   6.8  11.5  13.0  16.1  13.9  12.8   8.3   5.7   2.7   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.22
Ya |   83.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.3   3.8   8.6  10.8  16.1  14.9  15.8  10.9   8.5   4.2   2.3   0.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.03
Qu |   76.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.6   4.5   8.5  10.9  15.0  14.6  15.1  10.9   8.5   4.4   2.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.97
Pr |   78.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   4.2   8.1  10.6  14.8  14.6  15.4  11.2   8.8   4.6   2.6   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.06
Br |   47.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.2   7.0   9.5  15.7  15.4  17.0  12.3   9.7   5.3   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.48
RP |   29.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.2   9.8  19.3  17.8  18.5  12.2   8.4   4.0   1.9   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.39
SL |   27.0 |   1.6   3.2   8.0  10.8  15.0  15.1  14.8  11.6   8.7   5.3   3.2   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.39
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Un    Cg    Da    Ya    Qu    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.5   3.4  12.3 |  83.3
Un |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.8   4.2  16.4 |  78.2
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.3   0.6   2.3   3.9   7.0  17.8  35.8 |  30.8
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2         3.3   7.5   9.0  18.3  29.1  17.7 |   5.2
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.2         9.2  13.9  20.4  19.1  10.5 |   2.1
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.0   7.1        16.3  21.7  14.0   4.4 |   0.4
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.7   8.5  10.2        15.6  10.3   2.5 |   0.2
Br |     x     x   0.0     x   0.3   1.6   2.6   4.2   5.1         1.7   0.3 |   0.0
RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |    NO
SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**hockeyplayer1015** · 01-21-2018, 02:38 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

I find it funny that the simulation finds SLU will magically receive 5 points during the remainder of the season.

**bothman** · 01-21-2018, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post

I find it funny that the simulation finds SLU will magically receive 5 points during the remainder of the season.

Cornell has 1 win against a team ranked in the Top 17 PWR (Harvard @Lynah).

**hockeyplayer1015** · 01-21-2018, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by bothman View Post

Cornell has 1 win against a team ranked in the Top 17 PWR (Harvard @Lynah).

That's more a factor of their schedule though, as opposed to numerous missed opportunities.

SLU has just 1 point thus far (Thanks, RPI!), and it's totally conceivable they go 0-fer until March.

**FlagDUDE08** · 01-21-2018, 03:28 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Originally posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post

That's more a factor of their schedule though, as opposed to numerous missed opportunities.

SLU has just 1 point thus far (Thanks, RPI!), and it's totally conceivable they go 0-fer until March.

We thought the same thing about Colgate in the 10-11 season, and then they came out of nowhere. With how y'all did over the Christmas break, I wouldn't be surprised if you get a couple wins and/or a good playoff run.

**lugnut92** · 01-21-2018, 06:20 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Originally posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post

I find it funny that the simulation finds SLU will magically receive 5 points during the remainder of the season.

Basically, the rest of the teams they play are all bad (except Cornell and kind of Harvard), so they're expected to go about .250 in the match-up between awful and bad.

**lugnut92** · 01-29-2018, 11:43 AM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

And you thought SLU couldn't "magically" get 5 points. Well I guess they only got 4 this weekend, but now the model thinks they'll probably pull another 5 before season's end. All that said, who really cares if SLU ends in last or second to last, and whether they do it with 5 points or 9 or whatever. What we do care about is the breaklines. The bye line is significantly tightened after Harvard went oh-fer, but Colgate is still almost a whole win behind. The home ice line remains the much tighter race, at a near tie between Princeton and Yale. While the Tiger-Bulldog race is incredibly close, they're the only teams really battling at this line. Quinnipiac isn't very likely to fall to 9th and Brown almost definitely won't climb up to 8th.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^21.47 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Union
Harvard
—————
Colgate
Dartmouth
Quinnipiac
Princeton
—————
Yale
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  688.2 |  74.5  25.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.26 | 38.32
Ck |  424.3 |  25.4  74.1   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.75 | 35.88
Un |  106.1 |   0.0   0.4  56.7  25.3  12.7   4.2   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.66 | 27.28
Ha |  111.9 |     x   0.1  26.8  39.4  22.6   9.4   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.20 | 25.67
Cg |   88.0 |     x   0.0  13.2  23.7  33.5  20.4   6.5   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.92 | 23.91
Da |   82.2 |     x   0.0   2.6  10.5  24.0  38.9  16.0   5.9   1.8   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  5.82 | 22.27
Qu |   74.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.4  11.6  33.0  25.5  16.4   7.3   1.7   0.4 |  7.69 | 18.88
Pr |   74.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   8.6  21.1  27.1  22.9  14.5   3.0   0.7 |  8.19 | 17.87
Ya |   66.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.0   6.3  17.7  28.7  32.1  12.0   0.8   0.0 |  8.21 | 17.76
Br |   45.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.3   9.8  23.0  52.7   9.4   1.1 |  9.56 | 14.92
RP |   28.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.8   8.3  63.0  26.4 | 11.13 | 11.31
SL |   36.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.4   4.8  22.1  71.3 | 11.62 |  9.92

   |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  688.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.7   4.2   8.5  15.0  19.9  23.2  15.7  11.0 | 38.32
Ck |  424.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.7   3.8   6.8  11.9  15.1  19.5  16.3  14.7   5.9   3.4     x | 35.88
Un |  106.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.9   3.4   7.6   9.8  15.1  14.6  16.2  11.8   9.7   5.0   2.9   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 27.28
Ha |  111.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.3   3.8   9.8  11.6  19.2  15.6  18.0   9.2   7.3   1.7   0.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.67
Cg |   88.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.5   4.3   8.6  10.9  15.7  14.8  16.0  10.8   8.6   3.8   2.1   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.91
Da |   82.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.6   2.8   7.3   9.5  16.0  15.1  17.7  11.9  10.1   4.3   2.6   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.27
Qu |   74.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.9   4.8   8.8  11.0  15.1  14.4  14.7  10.6   8.2   4.2   2.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.88
Pr |   74.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.9   4.8   8.9  11.1  15.1  14.4  14.7  10.5   8.1   4.2   2.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.87
Ya |   66.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.1   3.3  10.6  11.7  19.6  15.5  16.9   9.2   7.0   2.5   1.3   0.2   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.76
Br |   45.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.6   6.3  16.4  15.3  20.6  13.8  12.2   5.8   3.5   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.92
RP |   28.2 |     x     x     x   7.6  10.4  19.8  18.0  18.3  11.8   8.0   3.7   1.7   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.31
SL |   36.8 |   2.2   3.9  10.0  12.1  17.2  15.3  14.9  10.1   7.3   3.8   2.0   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.92
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Un    Ha    Cg    Da    Qu    Pr    Ya    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Un |     x     x         0.0     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.9   6.2  10.0 |  82.4
Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.8   0.2   1.8  12.5  18.0 |  66.3
Cg |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   1.4   2.6   1.3   6.4  22.4  28.3 |  36.9
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         3.2   4.7   4.2  14.1  31.5  27.1 |  13.1
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3        13.2  15.8  25.8  11.4   6.8 |   0.6
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   7.5        18.9  18.8   8.2   4.3 |   0.3
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   9.8  14.7        18.2   6.5   4.4 |   0.3
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   3.2   4.7   4.1         0.8   0.5 |   0.0
RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |    NO
SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 02-04-2018, 12:42 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Our borders which had previously been so interesting are now separated by over 2.5 points. Cornell is, despite their recent embarrassment, cruising to the Cleary with a sizeable lead over Clarkson. Unfortunately we're still dealing with uneven games played (stupid Beanpot), but that will be taken care of next weekend.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^16.70 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Union
Harvard
—————
Colgate
Princeton
Dartmouth
Quinnipiac
—————
Yale
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  504.7 |  92.3   7.6   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.08 | 36.68
Ck |  287.9 |   7.6  81.0   9.2   1.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.06 | 31.93
Un |  110.6 |   0.1   5.8  51.0  32.3   8.0   2.1   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.51 | 27.78
Ha |  125.5 |   0.0   5.4  34.6  43.9  13.2   2.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.74 | 26.84
Cg |   88.0 |     x   0.3   4.4  16.0  40.4  20.5  11.5   5.3   1.6   0.1   0.0     x |  5.41 | 23.58
Pr |  102.6 |     x   0.0   0.3   3.1  17.6  33.1  24.5  15.4   5.1   0.9   0.0     x |  6.49 | 21.92
Da |   80.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   2.0  12.9  23.1  30.4  22.1   8.0   1.1   0.1     x |  6.86 | 21.37
Qu |   84.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   5.9  14.6  23.6  36.0  16.0   2.9   0.4   0.0 |  7.50 | 20.48
Ya |   77.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.7   4.0   8.1  18.1  53.5  13.2   1.2   0.0 |  8.62 | 17.93
Br |   43.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.7  13.9  64.9  17.0   0.5 |  9.95 | 14.69
RP |   32.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.9  16.6  78.4   2.8 | 10.81 | 12.65
SL |   33.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.9  96.7 | 11.96 |  8.17

   |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  504.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.8   6.2  13.2  18.1  25.8  17.2  15.5 | 36.68
Ck |  287.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.8   6.1  12.8  14.5  21.3  15.2  15.6   5.3   3.6     x     x     x | 31.93
Un |  110.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.3   5.4   7.2  15.0  14.4  19.7  13.2  12.7   5.5   3.7   0.8   0.3     x     x     x     x     x | 27.78
Ha |  125.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.8   3.9   5.8  15.0  14.8  23.5  14.1  14.8   4.2   2.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.84
Cg |   88.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.5   4.1  10.4  12.0  19.6  15.6  17.5   8.6   6.7   1.6   0.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.58
Pr |  102.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.7   3.1   8.4  10.6  18.5  16.0  19.1  10.2   8.5   2.2   1.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.92
Da |   80.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.6   3.0   4.8  11.6  12.8  20.0  15.1  16.3   7.8   5.7   1.3   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.37
Qu |   84.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.8   4.4  11.0  12.3  19.8  15.4  16.8   8.2   6.3   1.5   0.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.48
Ya |   77.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.8   2.9   9.7  10.9  19.0  15.3  17.4  10.0   7.9   2.9   1.6   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.93
Br |   43.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.8   7.5  17.9  16.1  20.2  13.1  10.7   4.8   2.8   0.8   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.69
RP |   32.7 |     x     x     x     x     x  12.9  13.2  25.4  17.2  16.9   7.7   4.7   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.65
SL |   33.1 |   8.7  10.6  21.4  17.5  18.5  10.8   7.5   3.1   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.17
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Un    Ha    Cg    Pr    Da    Qu    Ya    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2 |  99.7
Un |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.0   7.8 |  89.2
Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.5  12.8 |  83.9
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.5   0.5   1.4   4.5  12.0  19.1  39.7 |  20.6
Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1         1.5   2.8  13.5  23.9  30.7  18.1 |   3.4
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7         4.5  18.7  27.0  24.1  13.3 |   2.2
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   0.4   1.6   2.0        29.8  23.8  16.2   6.3 |   0.7
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   2.6   4.5   9.3         8.0   4.8   1.8 |   0.2
Br |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.5   0.6   1.1   1.1         0.3   0.0 |   0.0
RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0 |    NO
SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 02-13-2018, 11:31 AM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Finally, everyone has played the same number of games and we're in the final stretch of the ECAC season. A small amount of intrigue has crept back into the home-road dividing line, with Yale's win over Quinnipiac catapulting them into eighth place, and a mere 1.2 points separating 9th from 6th. Cornell, Clarkson, and Union are all set to coast to byes, while SLU, RPI, and Brown are just playing out the string to find out where they'll be headed in two weeks.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 282,429,536,481 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Clarkson
Union
Harvard
—————
Colgate
Princeton
Dartmouth
Yale
—————
Quinnipiac
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  487.0 |  97.5   2.3   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.03 | 36.58
Ck |  287.2 |   1.8  80.7  15.9   1.6   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.17 | 31.76
Un |  128.9 |   0.7  16.6  80.3   2.3   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.84 | 29.99
Ha |  116.4 |     x   0.3   3.5  78.0  14.1   3.0   0.9   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  4.20 | 25.59
Cg |   81.6 |     x     x   0.1  11.7  36.7  21.7  14.0  10.0   5.8   0.0     x     x |  5.91 | 22.43
Pr |   97.8 |     x     x     x   1.4  16.9  28.6  24.7  17.4  11.0   0.0   0.0     x |  6.73 | 21.29
Da |   78.3 |     x     x     x   1.2  15.5  21.1  24.3  20.9  16.9   0.2     x     x |  7.00 | 21.01
Ya |   94.9 |     x     x     x   3.6  12.2  14.7  18.7  23.9  26.8   0.1   0.0     x |  7.28 | 20.48
Qu |   83.5 |     x     x     x   0.3   4.6  10.8  17.4  27.6  39.0   0.3   0.0     x |  7.86 | 20.07
Br |   39.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4  74.7  22.2   2.6 | 10.27 | 13.26
RP |   31.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2  21.7  68.4   9.7 | 10.88 | 12.01
SL |   37.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.0   9.4  87.6 | 11.85 |  9.53

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  487.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   5.8  11.0  25.7  23.1  32.3 | 36.58
Ck |  287.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   3.0   5.0  14.6  15.3  28.4  14.9  18.1     x     x     x     x | 31.76
Un |  128.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.9   4.0  15.7  13.8  26.8  14.1  16.3   3.8   2.5     x     x     x     x | 29.99
Ha |  116.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.0   9.8  11.0  25.8  16.5  22.5   6.2   5.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.59
Cg |   81.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.7   2.6  11.8  11.8  25.7  15.4  20.2   5.7   4.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.43
Pr |   97.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.6   2.7  12.5  12.8  27.8  15.5  19.0   4.7   3.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.29
Da |   78.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.6   3.7  15.6  14.0  27.4  14.3  16.2   3.8   2.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.01
Ya |   94.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.4   6.2  21.0  15.7  25.6  11.6  11.1   2.3   1.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.48
Qu |   83.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.2   3.4  14.8  13.9  28.2  14.7  16.5   3.8   2.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.07
Br |   39.7 |     x     x     x     x  17.3  14.6  29.0  15.8  15.1   5.0   2.7   0.4   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.26
RP |   31.4 |     x     x     x  21.0  16.8  29.0  14.8  12.4   3.8   1.8   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.01
SL |   37.3 |  14.4  12.6  27.5  15.9  17.5   6.4   4.4   0.8   0.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.53
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Ck    Un    Ha    Cg    Pr    Da    Ya    Qu    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Un |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.1   1.6   4.3  12.0 |  81.8
Cg |     x     x     x   0.0         1.7   1.9   1.5   4.9  17.1  21.6  33.7 |  11.8
Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.4         4.8   5.7   6.6  23.8  27.1  19.2 |   1.4
Da |     x     x     x   0.0   1.3   1.4         5.4  12.8  24.4  19.8  16.8 |   1.2
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   1.5   3.5   3.9        15.0  17.5  15.4  12.8 |   3.6
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   2.6   4.4   6.3  14.3        15.6  11.7   5.6 |   0.3
Br |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0 |    NO
RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x           x |    NO
SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 02-17-2018, 01:46 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

MIDWEEK UPDATE.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 387,420,489 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

Cornell
Union
Clarkson
Harvard
—————
Dartmouth
Princeton
Colgate
Yale
—————
Quinnipiac
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  493.9 |  98.8   1.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.01 | 36.82
Un |  136.0 |   1.2  51.1  47.1   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.47 | 30.86
Ck |  255.5 |   0.0  47.3  44.2   8.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.61 | 30.12
Ha |  122.9 |     x   0.4   8.7  83.4   5.9   1.4   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x |  4.00 | 26.22
Da |   89.7 |     x     x     x   2.0  39.0  25.1  18.8  12.6   2.4     x     x     x |  6.08 | 22.66
Pr |  103.9 |     x     x     x   0.9  25.7  25.7  24.0  18.1   5.7     x     x     x |  6.50 | 21.95
Cg |   77.9 |     x     x     x   0.9  13.4  24.4  24.6  24.6  12.2     x     x     x |  6.95 | 21.44
Ya |  102.6 |     x     x     x   3.7  15.7  21.1  25.2  25.0   9.3     x     x     x |  6.80 | 21.41
Qu |   81.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.3   2.4   7.2  19.7  70.3   0.1   0.0     x |  8.58 | 19.29
Br |   39.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1  81.9  16.9   1.1 | 10.19 | 12.93
RP |   30.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0  16.6  77.1   6.2 | 10.89 | 11.45
SL |   35.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.4   6.0  92.6 | 11.91 |  8.86

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  493.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.6   4.2   8.0  25.6  21.8  39.7 | 36.82
Un |  136.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   7.9  29.2  16.4  27.2   6.3   5.0     x     x     x     x | 30.86
Ck |  255.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.4  12.6  12.6  31.8  15.5  23.6     x     x     x     x     x     x | 30.12
Ha |  122.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.8   5.8  25.4  16.2  30.6   8.5   8.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.22
Da |   89.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.0   4.0  18.7  14.7  32.8  11.7  15.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.66
Pr |  103.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.7   7.3  29.7  16.4  27.2   6.7   6.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.95
Cg |   77.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.8   4.9  21.7  15.7  32.6   9.9  11.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.44
Ya |  102.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.7  10.9  32.7  15.3  20.5   4.2   2.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.41
Qu |   81.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.0   5.2  23.6  16.6  34.0   8.6   7.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.29
Br |   39.1 |     x     x     x     x  22.8  15.1  32.0  12.8  13.2   2.6   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.93
RP |   30.1 |     x     x     x  32.2  19.1  30.0  10.3   7.0   1.1   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.45
SL |   35.4 |  24.1  15.6  31.7  12.5  12.3   2.4   1.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.86
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cr    Un    Ck    Ha    Da    Pr    Cg    Ya    Qu    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Un |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ck |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
Ha |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.6   5.6 |  92.5
Da |     x     x     x     x         0.1   0.7   0.2  11.7  20.7  23.9  38.3 |   2.0
Pr |     x     x     x     x   0.6         0.6   1.5  15.4  24.1  25.1  26.2 |   0.9
Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.4         1.3  21.5  23.9  24.7  13.7 |   0.9
Ya |     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.8   2.0        21.9  24.3  21.9  15.7 |   3.7
Qu |     x     x     x     x   1.2   3.4   8.8   6.3         6.7   2.8   0.5 |    NO
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 02-18-2018, 06:13 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

One weekend, and Clarkson still sucks. Not in the standings or on the ice or anything, but you know, yeah. The bye teams are set, as are three of the four road teams. Quinnipiac is more likely that not to be on the road next week, but they have a pretty reasonable shot to jumping into the middle four.

Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 531,441 possibilites):

Cornell
Union
Clarkson
Harvard
—————
Dartmouth
Colgate
Princeton
Yale
—————
Quinnipiac
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
Note: I've continued to be lazy and never implemented tie-breaking for more than three teams or beyond the second tiebreaker. I just flip a coin. That introduces some fuzziness in the middle of the standings, since we could theoretically have a five-way tie there. So don't take these odds as gospel and hope that I decide to fix it some time before next February.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  512.7 |  99.5   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 37.26
Un |  142.9 |   0.5  91.4   8.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.08 | 31.76
Ck |  229.1 |     x   8.1  58.7  33.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.25 | 28.76
Ha |  136.9 |     x     x  33.2  66.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.67 | 27.65
Da |   92.8 |     x     x     x     x  63.9  19.9   9.3   6.0   0.9     x     x     x |  5.60 | 23.36
Cg |   79.7 |     x     x     x     x  18.8  44.1  21.6  10.8   4.7     x     x     x |  6.38 | 22.17
Pr |   96.5 |     x     x     x     x   7.5  15.2  32.1  29.6  15.5     x     x     x |  7.30 | 21.07
Ya |   98.1 |     x     x     x     x   9.5  16.5  24.6  28.2  21.1     x     x     x |  7.34 | 20.88
Qu |   83.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.3   4.3  12.3  25.3  57.8     x     x     x |  8.36 | 19.97
Br |   36.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  86.4  13.3   0.3 | 10.14 | 12.11
RP |   28.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.0  84.1   2.9 | 10.90 | 10.81
SL |   33.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   2.6  96.8 | 11.96 |  8.20

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  512.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.8   3.1  20.3  20.1  55.5 | 37.26
Un |  142.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.0  13.3  45.3  10.0  10.5     x     x     x     x | 31.76
Ck |  229.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.9   6.6  32.2  16.7  38.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.76
Ha |  136.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.5   7.3  35.7  16.0  34.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.65
Da |   92.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.8   9.2  39.7  14.0  26.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.36
Cg |   79.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.5  10.5  44.4  12.8  19.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.17
Pr |   96.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.5  11.2  46.7  12.1  16.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.07
Ya |   98.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.2  12.4  39.4  10.8  16.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.88
Qu |   83.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  15.6  11.8  46.8  11.4  14.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.97
Br |   36.1 |     x     x     x     x  42.7  17.6  29.7   5.7   4.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.11
RP |   28.1 |     x     x     x  52.5  19.6  23.2   3.6   1.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.81
SL |   33.2 |  39.9  17.0  31.4   6.3   5.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.20
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Da    Cg    Pr    Ya    Qu    Br    RP    SL
----------------------------------------------------
Da |         0.2   0.2   0.1   5.5  10.8  19.8  62.5
Cg |   0.0         2.4   1.5   6.8  21.7  43.2  19.6
Pr |   0.4   0.4         6.5  22.4  31.6  15.5   7.7
Ya |   0.4   0.9   3.9        23.1  24.6  16.2   9.9
Qu |   0.1   3.3   9.0  13.0        11.3   5.3   0.3
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

**lugnut92** · 02-24-2018, 01:22 PM

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Last one of these! Only one playoff match-up is set, with Dartmouth and SLU locked into 5th and 12th, respectively. We don't know which team of the four jockeying in the middle will fall to ninth, though it'll probably be Yale. Colgate controls their own destiny, as a win tonight at RPI would lock in a rematch in Hamilton next weekend.

Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 729 possibilites):

Cornell
Union
Clarkson
Harvard
—————
Dartmouth
Colgate
Princeton
Quinnipiac
—————
Yale
Brown
RPI
SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  522.7 | 100.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 37.50
Un |  138.7 |     x 100.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.50
Ck |  220.2 |     x     x  87.9  12.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.12 | 28.38
Ha |  120.4 |     x     x  12.1  87.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.88 | 26.12
Da |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x 100.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.00 | 24.36
Cg |   80.9 |     x     x     x     x     x  80.4  10.1   7.4   2.0     x     x     x |  6.30 | 22.43
Pr |   99.2 |     x     x     x     x     x  13.0  54.4  25.8   6.8     x     x     x |  7.26 | 21.45
Qu |   86.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   4.5  22.4  44.7  28.4     x     x     x |  7.97 | 20.62
Ya |   90.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   2.1  13.1  22.1  62.8     x     x     x |  8.46 | 19.88
Br |   41.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0     x     x | 10.00 | 13.64
RP |   27.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0     x | 11.00 | 10.57
SL |   31.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0 | 12.00 |  7.55

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  522.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  18.1  13.5  68.4 | 37.50
Un |  138.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  68.4  13.5  18.1     x     x     x     x     x | 31.50
Ck |  220.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  24.4  13.4  62.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.38
Ha |  120.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  37.2  13.5  49.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.12
Da |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  25.2  13.4  61.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.36
Cg |   80.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.9  13.5  64.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.43
Pr |   99.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  20.9  13.5  65.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.45
Qu |   86.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  62.1  13.4  24.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.62
Ya |   90.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  49.3  13.5  37.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.88
Br |   41.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x  61.3  13.4  25.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.64
RP |   27.4 |     x     x     x  64.6  13.5  21.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.57
SL |   31.6 |  65.7  13.5  20.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.55
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Cg    Pr    Qu    Ya    Br    RP    SL
----------------------------------------------
Da |     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0
Cg |         0.9   3.3   3.2  10.1  80.4     x
Pr |     x         7.4  18.4  54.4  13.0     x
Qu |   0.7   2.8        41.1  22.4   4.5     x
Ya |   1.3   3.1  17.7        13.1   2.1     x
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

Announcement

ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

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