ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

[lugnut92]

Another year, another season of simulated KRACH standings. The first week of the season had five league games, so this is a more legitimate first post than most years have been. Anyway, it's crazy early, so we have to throw in the fake tie to keep KRACH real and finite. Usually I hold off until like January to start posting the playoff matchup possibilities, but I generate them immediately anyway, so whatever. Look at those way too early numbers too.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^60.59 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

1. Princeton
2. Cornell
3. Quinnipiac
4. Harvard
   —————
5. Clarkson
6. Colgate
7. Yale
8. Brown
   —————
9. Union
10. RPI
11. SLU
12. Dartmouth

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |  322.7 |  41.4  25.0  15.3   9.0   4.9   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  2.27 | 31.42
Cr |  271.3 |  27.2  25.4  18.8  12.5   7.8   4.4   2.3   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  2.79 | 30.09
Qu |  225.4 |  16.2  20.3  20.4  16.3  11.6   7.3   4.3   2.3   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.46 | 28.58
Ha |  168.3 |   6.9  11.8  16.0  18.0  16.4  12.6   8.7   5.6   3.0   0.8   0.1   0.0 |  4.50 | 26.41
Ck |  164.3 |   5.6  10.1  14.2  17.1  16.9  13.8  10.1   6.8   3.9   1.2   0.2   0.0 |  4.79 | 25.84
Cg |  119.2 |   1.4   3.5   6.5  10.2  14.0  16.7  16.3  14.6  11.1   4.5   0.9   0.1 |  6.27 | 22.96
Ya |  100.0 |   0.5   1.5   3.4   6.2  10.0  14.5  18.1  19.5  16.8   7.7   1.7   0.3 |  7.07 | 21.37
Br |  100.0 |   0.5   1.5   3.3   6.1  10.0  14.5  18.2  19.5  16.9   7.6   1.7   0.3 |  7.08 | 21.37
Un |   73.1 |   0.2   0.8   2.1   4.2   7.6  11.9  16.6  20.8  23.9   9.2   2.2   0.4 |  7.54 | 20.40
RP |   59.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.6   7.4  16.3  42.3  19.8   7.8 |  9.81 | 14.98
SL |   26.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   3.9  15.1  39.7  39.5 | 11.10 | 10.73
Da |   24.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.5  11.2  33.8  51.5 | 11.32 |  9.87

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |  322.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.5   3.7   5.1   6.7   8.2   9.6  10.4  10.5  10.0   8.8   7.2   5.4   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 31.42
Cr |  271.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.0   4.2   5.7   7.2   8.6   9.7  10.2  10.1   9.4   8.1   6.5   4.9   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.09
Qu |  225.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.5   3.7   5.1   6.5   7.9   9.1   9.8  10.0   9.6   8.6   7.2   5.6   4.1   2.8   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.58
Ha |  168.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.1   1.8   2.7   4.0   5.4   6.8   8.2   9.3   9.9   9.8   9.3   8.2   6.9   5.3   3.9   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.41
Ck |  164.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.4   3.5   4.8   6.2   7.6   8.7   9.5   9.8   9.5   8.6   7.4   6.0   4.5   3.2   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.84
Cg |  119.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.3   3.4   4.7   6.1   7.5   8.6   9.4   9.7   9.4   8.6   7.4   6.0   4.6   3.3   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 22.96
Ya |  100.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.1   5.5   7.1   8.5   9.6  10.2  10.1   9.3   8.1   6.6   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 21.37
Br |  100.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.0   5.5   7.1   8.6   9.7  10.2  10.1   9.3   8.1   6.6   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.37
Un |   73.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.6   7.2   8.8   9.8  10.3  10.2   9.4   8.1   6.5   5.0   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.40
RP |   59.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.1   4.6   6.3   8.1   9.4  10.4  10.5  10.1   8.9   7.4   5.8   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.98
SL |   26.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.0   7.0   9.0  10.5  11.3  11.1  10.2   8.7   6.8   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.73
Da |   24.6 |   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.7   4.5   6.7   8.9  10.7  11.6  11.6  10.6   9.1   7.2   5.3   3.6   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.87

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

   |    Pr    Cr    Qu    Ha    Ck    Cg    Ya    Br    Un    RP    SL    Da |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   1.5   3.1   3.5 |  90.7
Cr |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.7   2.7   5.2   5.8 |  83.9
Qu |   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.5   0.8   0.8   1.3   4.7   8.2   9.0 |  73.2
Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.3   1.1   1.8   1.8   2.7   8.7  13.1  13.8 |  52.7
Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3         1.3   2.2   2.2   3.3   9.7  13.9  14.6 |  47.1
Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   0.8         4.4   4.5   6.8  14.1  15.2  15.1 |  21.7
Ya |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.0   3.5         6.2   8.9  15.2  13.3  12.7 |  11.5
Br |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.0   3.5   6.3         9.0  15.1  13.4  12.7 |  11.4
Un |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.3   4.3   7.0   7.1        14.1  11.2  10.4 |   7.4
RP |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.6   1.7   2.7   2.7   2.2         1.6   1.3 |   0.4
SL |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.3   0.4   0.3         0.1 |   0.0
Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.0       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

We're still crazy early in the season, but at least everyone has played a couple league games now. Cornell is apparently going to win everything forever and SLU is gonna do real bad.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^54.87 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

1. Cornell
2. Clarkson
3. Colgate
4. Princeton
   —————
5. Quinnipiac
6. Harvard
7. Union
8. Dartmouth
   —————
9. Yale
10. RPI
11. Brown
12. SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  876.8 |  92.2   7.0   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 38.07
Ck |  243.3 |   6.3  53.0  21.3  10.7   5.2   2.3   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  2.68 | 30.71
Cg |  146.1 |   0.8  15.1  25.4  22.5  15.8  10.1   5.8   3.0   1.2   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  4.15 | 26.80
Pr |  171.9 |   0.5  14.4  24.6  22.2  16.5  10.7   6.3   3.2   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0 |  4.23 | 26.60
Qu |  146.2 |   0.1   5.9  13.4  18.1  20.6  17.1  12.2   7.6   3.7   1.1   0.3   0.0 |  5.23 | 24.37
Ha |  104.4 |   0.1   3.1   8.6  13.3  17.8  20.1  16.8  11.6   6.2   1.8   0.5   0.1 |  5.86 | 23.00
Un |   67.2 |   0.0   0.6   2.9   6.1  10.7  16.2  20.7  21.0  15.1   5.0   1.3   0.2 |  7.02 | 20.67
Da |   71.4 |   0.0   0.7   2.5   5.3   9.3  14.7  20.6  22.4  15.7   6.2   2.1   0.5 |  7.21 | 20.28
Ya |   60.4 |   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.7   3.8   7.6  13.2  21.0  29.3  14.8   6.1   1.8 |  8.34 | 17.86
RP |   42.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.8   5.0  12.6  28.4  30.3  21.0 | 10.40 | 12.84
Br |   32.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   3.5  10.1  27.8  31.9  24.9 | 10.59 | 12.39
SL |   23.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   4.7  14.4  27.5  51.4 | 11.21 | 10.43

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  876.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.7   4.5   7.0   9.8  12.6  14.4  14.7  12.9   9.6   5.8   2.6   0.7 | 38.07
Ck |  243.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.1   4.6   6.2   8.0   9.6  10.7  11.1  10.6   9.4   7.7   5.7   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.71
Cg |  146.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.2   4.6   6.2   7.8   9.2  10.3  10.7  10.2   9.2   7.6   5.9   4.2   2.7   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 26.80
Pr |  171.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.4   4.9   6.4   8.1   9.5  10.4  10.7  10.1   9.0   7.4   5.6   3.9   2.5   1.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.60
Qu |  146.2 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.6   3.8   5.3   6.9   8.5   9.6  10.4  10.3   9.7   8.5   6.9   5.2   3.6   2.3   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 24.37
Ha |  104.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.8   9.1  10.2  10.6  10.2   9.2   7.8   6.0   4.5   3.0   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.00
Un |   67.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.3   5.0   6.8   8.6   9.9  10.8  10.8  10.1   8.8   7.1   5.3   3.7   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.67
Da |   71.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.7   7.4   9.0  10.1  10.7  10.4   9.5   8.1   6.5   4.8   3.3   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.28
Ya |   60.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.5   8.3   9.9  10.9  11.2  10.4   9.1   7.4   5.6   3.9   2.6   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.86
RP |   42.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   2.9   4.6   6.6   8.6  10.4  11.2  11.3  10.5   9.1   7.2   5.4   3.8   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.84
Br |   32.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.3   5.4   7.6   9.8  11.3  11.9  11.5  10.3   8.4   6.3   4.4   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.39
SL |   23.4 |     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   3.4   5.4   7.8   9.9  11.4  11.9  11.4  10.2   8.3   6.3   4.5   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.43

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

   |    Cr    Ck    Cg    Pr    Qu    Ha    Un    Da    Ya    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.5   2.2   2.3   3.4 |  91.2
Cg |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.3   0.9   1.1   2.8   8.5   9.1  11.9 |  63.8
Pr |     x   0.0   0.1         0.2   0.3   1.0   1.2   3.0   9.0   9.6  12.5 |  61.7
Qu |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.7   2.0   2.4   6.0  14.0  14.8  17.3 |  37.6
Ha |     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5         2.9   3.8   8.1  16.4  16.7  17.7 |  25.0
Un |     x   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0   1.7         5.7  13.5  15.9  16.2  14.1 |   9.7
Da |     x   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0   1.6   5.1        14.3  15.9  15.5  13.1 |   8.5
Ya |     x   0.0   0.4   0.5   1.4   2.8   7.4   7.0         9.6   9.5   6.9 |   2.5
RP |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.7   0.9   1.9   2.0         0.9   0.7 |   0.1
Br |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.3   1.1   1.0   1.4   0.7         0.3 |   0.0
SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.3   0.2       |   0.0

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Cornell should go ahead and lose a game. There are a few sizeable gaps opening up, but the 6-10 range is pretty tight, with less than 2 points separating Harvard from RPI.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^49.14 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

1. Cornell
2. Clarkson
3. Colgate
4. Union
   —————
5. Princeton
6. Harvard
7. Quinnipiac
8. Yale
   —————
9. Dartmouth
10. RPI
11. Brown
12. SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a tie against a hypothetical average team to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  992.9 |  88.2  10.9   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.13 | 38.89
Ck |  296.1 |  10.6  65.2  17.3   5.1   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.22 | 33.36
Cg |  155.2 |   0.9  14.7  39.3  26.8  13.6   3.3   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.54 | 28.70
Un |  109.3 |   0.3   6.4  28.5  34.9  20.6   6.2   2.2   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.02 | 27.15
Pr |  134.9 |   0.0   2.7  12.2  24.4  35.1  14.0   6.3   3.0   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0 |  4.88 | 24.96
Ha |   64.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.0   8.8  20.0  20.0  17.5  14.2  10.3   4.7   0.7 |  7.50 | 18.96
Qu |   83.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.3   7.9  18.7  18.7  17.1  14.9  11.9   6.9   1.2 |  7.72 | 18.52
Ya |   55.2 |     x   0.0   0.3   1.5   5.1  13.6  17.4  18.8  18.6  16.1   7.6   0.8 |  8.09 | 17.74
Da |   50.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   4.5  12.2  16.4  18.4  18.8  16.9   9.4   1.8 |  8.27 | 17.41
RP |   59.4 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.7  10.4  14.6  17.4  19.0  19.2  13.6   2.5 |  8.62 | 16.72
Br |   33.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.2   6.2  11.5  21.5  44.8  11.1 | 10.26 | 13.20
SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   3.5  12.8  81.8 | 11.74 |  8.38

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |  992.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.5   7.3  10.6  13.8  15.8  15.6  13.0   8.8   4.3   1.4 | 38.89
Ck |  296.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.8   6.8   8.9  10.8  12.0  12.1  11.2   9.5   7.0   4.8   2.7   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0 | 33.36
Cg |  155.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.1   1.8   3.0   4.5   6.4   8.2  10.0  11.0  11.5  10.8   9.5   7.5   5.6   3.7   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 28.70
Un |  109.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.5   7.6   9.5  11.0  11.6  11.5  10.2   8.5   6.3   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.15
Pr |  134.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.2   5.9   7.7   9.4  10.6  11.2  10.8   9.8   8.1   6.2   4.2   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 24.96
Ha |   64.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.4   6.1   8.1   9.7  10.8  11.1  10.7   9.4   7.7   5.8   4.1   2.7   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.96
Qu |   83.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.5   5.1   6.9   8.6   9.9  10.7  10.7  10.1   8.7   7.1   5.2   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.52
Ya |   55.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.6   6.8   8.8  10.7  11.5  11.7  10.7   9.2   7.2   5.3   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.74
Da |   50.4 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.1   3.6   5.3   7.4   9.2  10.6  11.2  11.1  10.1   8.5   6.6   4.8   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.41
RP |   59.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.6   8.5  10.4  11.3  11.6  10.7   9.3   7.4   5.4   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.72
Br |   33.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   3.5   5.6   8.2  10.4  12.1  12.4  11.9  10.1   8.1   5.9   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.20
SL |   17.9 |     x   0.3   1.0   2.6   5.0   8.0  10.7  12.8  13.2  12.5  10.6   8.3   5.9   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.38
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

   |    Cr    Ck    Cg    Un    Pr    Ha    Qu    Ya    Da    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Ck |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2 |  98.3
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   0.5   0.9   1.0   3.3  11.5 |  81.7
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   1.1   1.0   1.4   2.2   5.6  17.7 |  70.0
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.9   2.4   2.9   3.6   4.9  12.1  30.6 |  39.4
Ha |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4         7.3   9.0  10.6  11.6  16.5  10.8 |   3.8
Qu |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   6.4         9.4  10.0  10.4  15.8   9.8 |   2.8
Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   6.9   7.5         9.3  11.0  12.8   6.9 |   1.9
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   5.8   7.1   9.5        10.5  12.2   6.0 |   1.5
RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   6.1   6.7   8.5   8.8        10.2   4.4 |   0.6
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   2.0   2.1   2.1   2.4         0.5 |   0.1
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

[Kepler]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Cornell should go ahead and lose a game.

No need, you have that dummy tie to make the math work.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Cornell lost! Hooray! No more hypothetical tie! Generally this means that things will seem more dire for a while for those teams who don't have many wins. Everything to do with the Ivies remains a little screwy because of their low games played, but it'll work itself out eventually. Anyway, we're now past the quarter pole (yes I'm using that wrong I don't care) and no one plays any league games for a couple weekends (not counting stupid Tuesday games), so this information will have to tide us over for a bit.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^45.33 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

1. Clarkson
2. Cornell
3. Union
4. Colgate
   —————
5. Quinnipiac
6. Princeton
7. RPI
8. Harvard
   —————
9. Dartmouth
10. Yale
11. Brown
12. SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  605.2 |  73.9  25.1   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.27 | 39.07
Cr |  596.2 |  25.6  68.2   5.5   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.81 | 36.85
Un |   98.0 |   0.3   3.5  46.4  37.8   9.3   2.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.61 | 29.08
Cg |  119.0 |   0.2   3.1  42.6  39.5  10.9   3.0   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.70 | 28.83
Qu |   91.9 |   0.0   0.0   2.5  11.3  37.8  29.2  12.4   4.4   1.6   0.5   0.2   0.0 |  5.61 | 22.89
Pr |   70.3 |   0.0   0.0   2.0   9.2  31.4  33.9  14.3   5.7   2.3   0.9   0.3   0.0 |  5.82 | 22.35
RP |   43.5 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.9   5.9  15.6  29.4  20.2  13.4   8.5   5.3   0.7 |  7.67 | 18.05
Ha |   27.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.4   7.4  16.9  22.9  20.1  15.6  11.8   2.6 |  8.57 | 16.01
Da |   24.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   5.8  14.1  21.1  22.2  17.7  13.8   3.4 |  8.81 | 15.52
Ya |   20.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   6.1  12.8  19.8  26.2  28.4   5.1 |  9.68 | 13.71
Br |   20.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   5.7  12.0  19.1  26.8  29.5   5.2 |  9.72 | 13.71
SL |   10.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.6   3.9  10.8  82.9 | 11.73 |  7.92

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  605.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.8   6.7  10.2  13.9  16.3  16.5  13.8   9.3   4.4   1.6 | 39.07
Cr |  596.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.5   4.6   7.4  11.0  14.3  16.2  15.9  12.6   8.3   3.8   1.3     x     x | 36.85
Un |   98.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.3   7.7   9.8  11.7  12.5  12.3  10.7   8.7   6.1   3.9   2.1   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 29.08
Cg |  119.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   3.8   5.9   8.1  10.4  12.0  12.7  11.9  10.5   8.0   5.5   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 28.83
Qu |   91.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.8   8.1  10.2  11.9  12.4  12.1  10.3   8.2   5.6   3.5   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.89
Pr |   70.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.2   4.9   7.1   9.3  11.2  12.0  12.2  10.9   9.0   6.7   4.6   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.35
RP |   43.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.9   5.7   7.9   9.8  11.4  11.9  11.6  10.1   8.2   6.0   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.05
Ha |   27.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.4   4.0   6.1   8.2  10.3  11.6  12.0  11.2   9.8   7.8   5.7   3.8   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.01
Da |   24.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.4  11.1  11.9  11.7  10.6   8.8   6.7   4.7   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.52
Ya |   20.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.8   3.6   6.7   9.4  12.5  13.7  13.8  12.0   9.6   6.8   4.4   2.5   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.71
Br |   20.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   1.8   3.6   6.6   9.5  12.5  13.7  13.7  11.9   9.6   6.8   4.4   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.71
SL |   10.7 |   0.4   1.3   3.3   6.0   9.3  12.0  13.7  13.6  12.3   9.9   7.2   4.8   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.92
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

   |    Ck    Cr    Un    Cg    Qu    Pr    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Br    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   0.7   1.1   1.2   8.1 |  88.1
Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   1.0   1.5   1.5   9.4 |  85.4
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.2   3.2   7.4   8.7  14.5  14.9  35.0 |  13.8
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1     x   4.0   8.4   9.8  16.2  16.6  30.3 |  11.1
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.6     x  12.4  14.0  17.7  17.8   8.2 |   1.0
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.8   6.4     x  13.3  12.1  12.8   3.7 |   0.3
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.8   6.2   9.8     x  11.4  11.0   2.9 |   0.2
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4   3.7   5.9   4.8     x   4.6   0.8 |   0.0
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   3.7   4.6   4.6   4.8     x   0.8 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1     x |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

So we have the top two teams that will fight it out, the other two teams that for the time being look pretty locked into byes, and then just a mess where pretty much everyone is a little less than a win away from their neighbors. Clarkson and Cornell are basically projected to run the table from here in, but their KRACHs are pretty high right now and that's not necessarily going to last forever (though this is circular reasoning: Eventually they'll look like they might lose a few games once they've lost a few games).

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^44.85 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

1. Clarkson
2. Cornell
3. Colgate
4. Union
   —————
5. Quinnipiac
6. Princeton
7. Harvard
8. RPI
   —————
9. Brown
10. Dartmouth
11. Yale
12. SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  669.4 |  68.8  29.7   1.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.33 | 38.95
Cr |  864.0 |  30.6  63.6   5.2   0.6   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.76 | 37.30
Cg |  167.0 |   0.3   3.6  48.2  41.0   5.6   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.52 | 29.68
Un |  127.0 |   0.3   3.1  43.4  45.1   6.6   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.59 | 29.35
Qu |   82.5 |   0.0   0.0   1.4   8.9  49.5  23.0  10.2   4.4   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.0 |  5.57 | 22.57
Pr |   64.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.7  20.9  33.9  20.8  11.4   5.9   2.9   1.2   0.1 |  6.52 | 20.31
Ha |   42.2 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.2   9.9  18.5  23.3  19.1  13.1   8.7   5.2   0.8 |  7.54 | 18.03
RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   4.3  10.7  18.5  20.3  17.6  14.5  11.8   1.8 |  8.35 | 16.53
Br |   33.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3   5.1  11.2  17.5  22.1  22.6  17.8   2.2 |  9.04 | 15.13
Da |   22.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.4   4.4   9.3  14.9  19.9  21.7  22.5   5.8 |  9.31 | 14.51
Ya |   23.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.1   6.2  11.7  18.3  25.5  31.0   4.8 |  9.70 | 13.82
SL |   11.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.3  10.4  84.4 | 11.77 |  7.81

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  669.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.1   7.0  10.8  14.4  16.7  16.3  13.1   8.6   3.8   1.3 | 38.95
Cr |  864.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.8   9.3  13.3  16.2  17.0  14.8  10.4   5.2   1.9     x     x | 37.30
Cg |  167.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.1   8.5  10.7  12.5  13.0  12.3  10.2   7.7   5.0   2.9   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 29.68
Un |  127.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.7   7.0   9.3  11.4  12.5  12.7  11.3   9.4   6.7   4.4   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 29.35
Qu |   82.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.4   9.0  11.1  12.6  12.7  11.9   9.7   7.3   4.7   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.57
Pr |   64.1 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.5  11.6  12.5  12.5  11.1   9.1   6.5   4.3   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.31
Ha |   42.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   4.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  11.2  11.7  11.1   9.9   7.9   5.9   4.0   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.03
RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.8   7.0   9.0  10.9  11.8  12.0  10.8   9.1   7.0   4.9   3.1   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.53
Br |   33.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.4   3.1   5.2   8.3  10.8  12.9  13.3  12.7  10.6   8.2   5.5   3.5   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.13
Da |   22.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   5.0   7.2   9.6  11.3  12.3  11.9  10.7   8.8   6.7   4.6   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.51
Ya |   23.6 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.6   3.3   6.3   9.1  12.3  13.6  13.9  12.3  10.0   7.1   4.6   2.7   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.82
SL |   11.7 |   0.4   1.3   3.6   6.3   9.7  12.3  13.9  13.6  12.1   9.6   6.9   4.5   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.81
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Qu    Pr    Ha    RP    Br    Da    Ya    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   0.6   4.9 |  93.1
Un |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.7   0.7   5.7 |  91.9
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.8   2.8   5.8   8.9  11.4  13.1  44.5 |  10.2
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3         5.1   9.8  14.1  16.5  19.2  22.0 |   3.0
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.9        10.3  15.0  15.4  16.5  11.3 |   1.3
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.9   6.3        13.1  12.9  13.4   5.7 |   0.3
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.4   5.2   8.2         8.0   8.7   2.3 |   0.1
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.9   4.1   6.4   7.8         7.3   2.0 |   0.1
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   4.0   4.7   5.1   4.3         0.9 |   0.0
SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |    NO
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

[StayPuftMMcu]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

I shouldn't have laughed at this, but in the BYE column, KRACH doesn't even give SLU a 0.0 chance. It literally just says "NO".

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

I shouldn't have laughed at this, but in the BYE column, KRACH doesn't even give SLU a 0.0 chance. It literally just says "NO".

Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.

This is accurate.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

With everyone except the North Country done with the league schedule for 2017, the most action is happening at the home-road line, with positions 8 through 11 separated by just over two points. Elsewhere, Cornell is Clarkson's only real competition for the Cleary, Harvard is locked in fifth, and the Princeton-Quinnipiac travel pair is wonderfully mediocre.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^41.03 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

1. Clarkson
2. Cornell
3. Colgate
4. Union
   —————
5. Harvard
6. Quinnipiac
7. Princeton
8. Brown
   —————
9. Yale
10. RPI
11. Dartmouth
12. SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  627.7 |  78.0  21.3   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.23 | 38.99
Cr |  522.7 |  21.6  71.9   5.7   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.86 | 36.18
Cg |  127.8 |   0.2   4.1  47.5  33.7  11.0   2.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.63 | 28.38
Un |  112.2 |   0.1   2.5  37.8  39.0  16.3   3.1   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.83 | 27.58
Ha |   82.0 |   0.0   0.2   7.7  21.5  44.6  15.2   6.3   2.7   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0 |  5.07 | 23.82
Qu |   66.2 |     x   0.0   0.3   2.5  12.6  31.3  22.8  14.2   8.7   5.1   2.3   0.2 |  6.92 | 19.66
Pr |   57.8 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.7   9.0  24.0  25.3  17.7  11.6   7.0   3.2   0.3 |  7.28 | 19.04
Br |   43.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.5   9.5  16.3  20.8  20.8  17.6  11.4   0.7 |  8.49 | 16.70
Ya |   32.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   4.9   9.8  16.1  21.3  24.3  20.6   1.5 |  9.14 | 15.71
RP |   38.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   6.0  10.6  15.6  18.9  21.4  22.5   3.0 |  9.12 | 15.56
Da |   25.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   3.5   7.4  12.3  16.6  22.0  31.4   5.9 |  9.61 | 14.62
SL |   12.9 |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   2.1   8.4  88.4 | 11.84 |  7.76

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  627.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   4.2   7.0  10.5  13.9  16.2  16.1  13.3   9.0   4.3   1.5 | 38.99
Cr |  522.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.0   6.7   9.8  12.8  14.9  15.1  13.5   9.7   5.9   2.5   0.8     x     x | 36.18
Cg |  127.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.2   4.9   7.0   9.1  10.9  11.9  12.1  11.0   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 28.38
Un |  112.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.6   8.8  11.2  12.3  12.9  11.5   9.8   7.1   4.9   2.8   1.5   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.58
Ha |   82.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.2   8.3  10.6  11.8  12.4  11.6  10.1   7.7   5.5   3.4   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.82
Qu |   66.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.2   4.1   6.2   9.1  11.3  13.3  13.1  12.3   9.8   7.4   4.6   2.7   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.66
Pr |   57.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.2   5.5   7.9  10.8  12.4  13.5  12.5  11.0   8.2   5.7   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.04
Br |   43.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.6   3.8   6.1   9.6  11.9  14.1  13.6  12.6   9.7   7.1   4.3   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.70
Ya |   32.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.4   1.6   3.2   6.5   9.2  12.8  13.9  14.4  12.3  10.0   6.8   4.3   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.71
RP |   38.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   2.5   4.6   6.8   9.6  11.4  12.9  12.5  11.5   9.2   6.9   4.5   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.56
Da |   25.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.5   4.3   7.0   9.4  11.8  12.7  12.7  11.2   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.62
SL |   12.9 |   0.5   1.4   3.7   6.5  10.0  12.5  13.9  13.5  11.9   9.4   6.8   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.76
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Qu    Pr    Br    Ya    RP    Da    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.0   1.7  10.0 |  85.6
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.1   1.6   2.0  14.7 |  79.5
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.9   1.3   3.9   6.0   6.4   9.4  40.7 |  29.3
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2         4.4  11.8  16.2  15.5  18.3  14.5 |   2.8
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.2        11.8  16.5  15.9  17.6  10.7 |   1.9
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.5   5.7        12.1  12.4  11.3   3.6 |   0.4
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.0   4.0   8.1         7.3   7.3   2.0 |   0.2
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.3   3.6   7.5   8.8         8.1   2.4 |   0.2
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.2   2.6   6.3   6.1   5.5         1.1 |   0.1
SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.

lugnut92 hit upon at least one this time.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

lugnut92 hit upon at least one this time.

Yup, exactly once they ended up in third. I imagine that was the one time the simulator got them up to 27 points.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Just out of curiosity, how long does it take to run 1,000,000 simulations? Not that we'd expect you to run 100 dodectillion simulations, mind you...

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Just out of curiosity, how long does it take to run 1,000,000 simulations? Not that we'd expect you to run 100 dodectillion simulations, mind you...

This one took 412.2 seconds, but we're also a little over a third of the way into the season. At its longest, it takes about ten minutes. When I tried to do an exhaustive sim of the last two weeks of the season, it took over a week.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

Only a pair of ECAC games this week, but a bunch of other games led to a rejiggering of each team's KRACH. No one changed position, so whatever.

Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^40.08 possibilites; n=1,000,000):

1. Clarkson
2. Cornell
3. Colgate
4. Union
   —————
5. Harvard
6. Quinnipiac
7. Princeton
8. Brown
   —————
9. Yale
10. RPI
11. Dartmouth
12. SLU

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  589.4 |  80.9  18.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.19 | 39.50
Cr |  497.4 |  18.9  75.9   4.7   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.87 | 36.42
Cg |  103.4 |   0.1   2.8  43.4  37.3  12.3   2.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.73 | 27.91
Un |  101.4 |   0.1   2.5  43.7  36.7  13.8   2.4   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.72 | 27.85
Ha |   68.8 |   0.0   0.1   7.4  20.5  45.0  15.3   6.5   3.1   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.0 |  5.12 | 23.59
Qu |   52.3 |     x   0.0   0.2   2.0  11.2  28.2  22.6  15.5  10.4   6.6   3.0   0.2 |  7.12 | 19.22
Pr |   50.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.9   9.9  24.9  23.9  16.9  11.6   7.2   3.1   0.3 |  7.24 | 19.05
Br |   34.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.3   8.7  14.7  19.4  21.2  19.7  12.9   0.8 |  8.62 | 16.46
Ya |   34.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.4   2.5   7.8  13.3  18.7  21.4  20.9  14.2   0.9 |  8.71 | 16.44
RP |   34.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.4   7.3  11.9  16.0  18.6  21.3  19.8   2.3 |  8.95 | 15.87
Da |   19.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.6   5.6   9.8  14.5  21.5  37.9   7.5 |  9.88 | 14.05
SL |   11.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   2.0   9.0  88.0 | 11.84 |  7.66

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |  589.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.7   5.2   8.6  12.5  15.9  17.5  15.6  11.5   5.9   2.4 | 39.50
Cr |  497.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.4   5.9   9.0  12.3  14.9  15.6  14.2  10.7   6.7   2.9   1.0     x     x | 36.42
Cg |  103.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.4   4.0   5.8   8.0   9.9  11.5  12.0  11.8  10.2   8.2   5.8   3.8   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.91
Un |  101.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.7   5.9   8.2  10.7  12.2  13.1  12.1  10.5   7.8   5.5   3.1   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.85
Ha |   68.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.8   4.4   6.7   8.8  11.0  12.1  12.4  11.3   9.7   7.2   5.0   3.0   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.59
Qu |   52.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.5   2.8   5.1   7.4  10.4  12.1  13.5  12.7  11.4   8.6   6.2   3.7   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.22
Pr |   50.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.5   7.8  10.8  12.4  13.6  12.5  11.1   8.1   5.7   3.3   1.9   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.05
Br |   34.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.9   4.4   6.8  10.4  12.5  14.4  13.5  12.1   9.0   6.3   3.8   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.46
Ya |   34.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   2.0   4.4   6.8  10.5  12.5  14.4  13.5  12.0   9.0   6.3   3.7   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.44
RP |   34.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.1   3.9   6.0   8.8  10.8  12.6  12.6  12.0   9.9   7.6   5.2   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.87
Da |   19.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.6   3.5   5.7   8.6  10.9  12.8  12.9  12.2  10.1   7.9   5.4   3.5   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.05
SL |   11.6 |   0.6   1.5   4.0   6.7  10.3  12.6  14.1  13.4  11.8   9.2   6.5   4.2   2.5   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.66
Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

   |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Qu    Pr    Br    Ya    RP    Da    SL |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cr |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.7   0.7   1.1   2.3  11.1 |  83.5
Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.6   0.6   1.1   1.9  12.5 |  83.0
Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.3   1.4   4.6   4.6   5.9  11.2  40.9 |  27.9
Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3         4.7  12.9  13.4  14.2  19.0  12.9 |   2.2
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.0        12.6  13.8  14.9  18.4  11.6 |   2.2
Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.1   5.5        10.3  11.1  10.1   3.3 |   0.3
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   4.2   4.7  10.3         9.5   9.6   3.4 |   0.4
RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.1   3.7   8.3   9.2         8.8   3.1 |   0.3
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.2   2.0   4.8   4.6   4.1         0.8 |   0.1
SL |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0       |   0.0
Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.