ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

[DrDemento]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Whatever Lug is doing, and I have no understanding of the math involved, it must be correct since Jenny is, as usual, about 10-20 slots above me.

[DrDemento]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.

But you keep a positive outlook!!

[Ralph Baer]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Well we're five games in, and we have to fake a whole hell of a lot of tiebreakers to make a set of standings that even remotely makes sense, but that's what happens when half of the league has no games played and 2 more split their home and home (with even goal differential). sshablak has the early lead, and (I think I'll be saying this an awful lot) RPI Standings Board is bringing up the rear. So here are your basically meaningless initial standings:

Rk Post#           Contestant        ρ
 1    48             sshablak   0.5734
 2    23          Mike Hutter   0.5385
 3    60             TchrBill   0.5315
 4     3        Mr. Last Year   0.4895
      46        goldenbriggsy   0.4895
 6    16                BigAl   0.4825
 7     3            The Media   0.4615
       2                 TBRW   0.4615
      18              bothman   0.4615
10    40             Dutchman   0.4545
11    33              Rainman   0.4196
12    53                johnk   0.3986
13    30      Section5forLife   0.3846
      52              kdiff77   0.3846
15    32               cudmud   0.3776
      59      TheValleyRaider   0.3776
17     3          The Coaches   0.3636
       5               Kepler   0.3636
      22         techtodenver   0.3636
      41              LTsatch   0.3636
      54            BIG Green   0.3636
      61              JennyRN   0.3636
23     9          IsThereADog   0.3601
24    17        ecachawkeyfan   0.3566
      63        TheFanAverage   0.3566
26    20            Muskieman   0.3497
      42           FireKnight   0.3497
      56     hockeyplayer1015   0.3497
29    61            DrDemento   0.3427
30    47           GoldenBear   0.3357
31    21           alslammerz   0.3252
32    28                 UFan   0.3077
33    10           slumulva88   0.3007
34    44           QUAlum2004   0.2867
35    34             Saints#1   0.2727
      57                 1988   0.2727
37    49           ColSkate65   0.2587
38     8                miker   0.2308
39    14           Go Puckman   0.2098
40    31                 Turk   0.1818
      39              drshoen   0.1818
42    62             jmhusker   0.1469
43    58            red133883   0.1399
44    11             lugnut92   0.0909
45    26           FlagDUDE08   0.0699
      50              Rjm7272   0.0699
47    15           Ralph Baer  -0.0140
48     3    The Random Number  -0.5315
49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  -0.7413

Okay, so I mentioned arbitrary tiebreakers, and here they are. If we extend past those tiebreakers provided by the ECAC, I'll basically try and apply the same thought process to teams' overall records. So right now, I'm just comparing win percentages and games played. That doesn't even fly for Brown and Yale, so I ranked them by shot differential. None of this matters, no one is going to care what tiebreakers I used 127 games from now.

Fun fact: Any time the scores here are negative, it means the prediction would be more accurate if it were reversed. So the RPI Standings Board would be #1 if it were literally backwards. But again, none of this matters, we're five games in.

Finally, I want to ask if people prefer the [code] tags I use for the formatted table or if they like the old [pre] tags better? [code] is smaller and more compact, but you end up having to scroll to the bottom. Does anyone care?

[ColSkate65]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

lugnut, TMI, you are way over my head. i was an English major, not a math major

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Here are the final statistics for all human entries (not including the Random Number, Mr. Last Year, and the Fan Average; n=46):

Team       |  Mean±SD   | Median(Range) |
-----------------------------------------
Harvard    |  1.59±1.44 |   1   ( 1-10) |
Quinnipiac |  2.59±1.24 |   2   ( 1- 6) |
Clarkson   |  3.80±2.07 |   3   ( 1-12) |
Cornell    |  3.83±1.27 |   4   ( 2- 7) |
Princeton  |  5.91±1.98 |   5   ( 1-12) |
Yale       |  6.57±1.63 |   7   ( 3-11) |
Union      |  6.98±2.01 |   7   ( 3-12) |
RPI        |  8.13±2.86 |   9   ( 1-12) |
SLU        |  8.30±2.40 |   9   ( 1-12) |
Dartmouth  |  9.48±1.95 |  10   ( 2-12) |
Colgate    |  9.89±1.87 |  10   ( 3-12) |
Brown      | 10.98±1.33 |  11.5 ( 7-12) |

The most consensus around any given team was Quinnipiac, though Harvard received more votes for a single position (1st, 31) than any other team. RPI had the least consensus, evidenced with a very wide distribution and the fewest votes for its mode (10th, 8) of any team. As the saying goes, never bet for or against RPI!

No team was picked to finish in every position, and no position had every team picked at least once.

hockeyplayer1015's entry most closely matches the fan average (only flipping the positions of Harvard and Quinnipiac), while the RPI Standings Board is the most different (ColSkate65 and Rjm7272 hold that crown for those who actually post on the board). As I mentioned in a previous post, LTsatch and The Coaches made identical entries.

Visualizations


Data on the first graph represent the mean ± SD ranking of all human entries. The second shows the frequency with which each team was predicted for each position.

[jmhusker]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

1. Harvard
2. Clarkson
3. Quinnipiac
4. RPI
5. Union
6. Cornell
7. Yale
8. Dartmouth
9. St. Lawrence
10. Princeton
11. Colgate
12. Brown

[DrDemento]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Just got back in time!!!! Will have to put both my picks and Jenny's together on this one post as she cannot seem to remember her login information password and is too pressed for time so here goes.

Me

1. Harvard
2. Quinnipiac
3. Cornell
4. Yale
5. RPI
6. Union
7. Clarkson
8. SLU
9. Princeton
10. Dartmouth
11. Colgate
12. Brown


Jenny

1. Harvard
2. Quinnipiac
3. Cornell
4. Union
5. RPI
6. Clarkson
7.Yale
8. Princeton
9. Dartmouth
10.Colgate
11. St. Lawrence
12. Brown

[TchrBill]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

1-Harvard
2-Cornell
3-Quinnipiac
4-Clarkson
5-Princeton
6-Union
7-Yale
8-Dartmouth
9-St. Lawrence
10-Brown
11-Colgate
12-Rensselaer

[TheValleyRaider]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

1-Harvard
2-Quinnipiac
3-Clarkson
4-Cornell
5-St. Lawrence
6-Princeton
7-Brown
8-Yale
9-Union
10-Colgate
11-Rensselaer
12-Dartmouth

[red133883]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Harvard
Clarkson
Colgate
Yale
Princeton
QU
Cornell
SLU
Dartmouth
Brown
Rpi
Union

[1988]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

1. Quinnipiac
2. Harvard
3. Clarkson
4. Cornell
5. Princeton
6. Yale
7. St. Lawerence
8. Union
9. RPI
10. Dartmouth
11. Colgate
12. Brown

[hockeyplayer1015]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

1. Harvard
2. Clarkson
3. Quinnipiac
4. Cornell
5. Princeton
6. Yale
7. Union
8. RPI
9. St. Lawrence
10. Dartmouth
11. Colgate
12. Brown

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Here are the statistics through ~4.5 days of entries (not including the Random Number and Mr. Last Year; n=38):

Team       |  Mean±SD   | Median(Range) |
-----------------------------------------
Harvard    |  1.68±1.56 |   1   ( 1-10) |
Quinnipiac |  2.55±1.20 |   2   ( 1- 6) |
Cornell    |  3.76±1.20 |   4   ( 2- 7) |
Clarkson   |  3.84±2.13 |   3   ( 1-12) |
Princeton  |  5.76±1.95 |   5   ( 1-12) |
Yale       |  6.66±1.66 |   7   ( 3-11) |
Union      |  6.95±1.92 |   7   ( 3-11) |
RPI        |  8.13±2.84 |   9   ( 1-12) |
SLU        |  8.32±2.54 |   9   ( 1-12) |
Dartmouth  |  9.47±2.08 |  10   ( 2-12) |
Colgate    |  9.92±1.67 |  10   ( 5-12) |
Brown      | 11.00±1.23 |  11   ( 7-12) |

I will be away from my computer until after the pucks drop tonight at 7, so this will be your final summary post until after submissions are closed. You may still submit standings (or make changes IN A NEW POST) until 7 PM tonight. See you on the other side!

[BIG Green]

Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18:

1. Harvard
2. Clarkson
3. Cornell
4. Quinnipiac
5. Princeton
6. Dartmouth
7. Yale
8. Union
9. St. Lawrence
10. Brown
11. Colgate
12. RPI