Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Actually Todd, Merrimack is 4-0-2 when you throw PC in with BU/BC...crazy
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
(cont'd from last post)
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Even though MC's extra GIH over CT has them a point behind in the standings yet a Max point ahead (25), they are in the same situation as CT. With the interplay between BU/ND/PC, MC could either be in a 4-way tie at 25, or one of those three has to pass them at the expense of the other two. MC swept BU, but was swept by PC, and split with ND. Unless everyone has a mutual .500, MC's 3-3-0 won't let them be promoted first out of that RRR. For them all to be at 25, ND has to take 3 from BU and 1 from PC.
In that case, BU (0-2-0, 1-0-1, 0-1-1 = 1-3-1) is sub-.500, which means that someone(s) else has to be above .500, so we're done. MC can't be 2nd, so might as well let ND escape with all the points and keep BU and PC below for MC in 3rd.
MC could still be caught by UMA, and in so doing would lose a H2H sweep. MC is 3-12.
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NU matches MC's 15, but only has a Max of 23. BC and BU are out of reach and either of ND/PC has to reach 24. That's three they can't catch.
The flip side is that NU swept UMA (so wins H2H tb) and MC (so wins that 3-way RRR). However, they could be swept by ME to have a NU/ME/UMA 3-way RRR. Still, that means ME swept the other two and gets promoted, which brings us back to NU v UMA for last, taken by NU. So, NU can't be passed by UMA. NU is 4-11.
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ME's Max 19 now drops them behind five teams, meaning they can't get a Bye. With UVM (18) and UNH (17) playing again, one of them has to hit 19 by Sunday morning. UNH and CT (16) also have to have a 19-pointer, as do UVM/MC(15). CT/NU(15) has to at least hit 18, but CT also has the UNH series to consider.
ME has to tie either UVM or MC. ME lost 0-1-1 to UVM, but would sweep MC to Max out. So move MC up to 19. To keep UVM at 18, we have to move UNH up, but that also means UNH can soak up all the CT points, so CT and NU can both stay below 19. That means six teams ME can't pass and a tb win at 7 as the best case for ME. With only 9 in the bank, ME can easily be caught by UMA, despite their H2H sweep TB. ME is 7-12.
Remember when we talked about surges the other week? Well, Maine just dropped four spots off the top of their range in one night.
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We've covered that there are nine teams that can't be caught by UMA (all the non-12s at the bottom of ranges), leaving just MC and ME to be passed.
UMA drops two spots from the top of their range and - finally - succumbs to being our first official Road team at 10-12. Cue Willy Nelson...Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Fri 2/10:
MC 6 @ BC 3
ND 3 @ ME 2
UMA 2 @ NU 6
CT 3 @ PC 4
BU 2 @ UML 3
UNH 4 @ UVM 2
Sat 2/11:
ND @ ME
UMA @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC/UML) ---
--- Home Lock – 24 (UNH/CT) ---BC 27 - 35 [1-6] BU 24 - 32 [1-8]
--------- Bleen Line --------------PC 22 - 30 [1-9] ND 21 - 31 [1-10] UML 21 - 29 [1-10] UVM 18 - 28 [1-11]
--- Bye Eligible - 21 (ND/UML) ---UNH 17 - 27 [2-11] CT 16 - 24 [3-11] MC 15 - 25 [3-12] NU 15 - 23 [4-11]
--- R1 Road - 16 (CT) ---ME 9 - 19 [7-12]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:UMA 5 - 15 [10-12]
BC - (v NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - (v HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
ND - @ME, PCx2, @BUx2 {5}
UML - UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {4}
UVM - UNH, @BCx2, MCx2 {5}
UNH - @UVM, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {5}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
MC - @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {5}
NU - (v BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - ND, @MCx2, NUx2 {5}
UMA - @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {5}
MC (3rd) and BC (1st) both scored late. ME scored late (EAG 3rd) vs ND. UMA (1st) and NU (2nd) did, too. UNH got the ENG with :01 left. Despite BU having a 5x3 for most of the last 2:00 of the 1st, they did not score late - although they followed up with a 3x5 shortie to begin the 2nd. UML had an ENG on its way when the final horn went off, but ultimately, UML v BU had no late goals. CT and PC also had no lates. Still, six late goals from six league games.
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BC and BU losing let the 3, 4, and 5 teams - who all won - move a little closer. UVM's loss to UNH now makes them separated by only a point. UVM used to be in 3rd just a couple of weeks ago, right?
That UNH win also jumped them ahead of CT while winners MC and NU pulled closer to CT.
Going into their face off, ME had a Max of 21 and ND had 19 pts. Those numbers swapped. ME and UMA are becoming more separated from the rest of the field. Considering ME's sweep of UMA for the H2H tb, they are looking more and more like seeds 11 and 12. At least everyone makes the playoffs, I guess.
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It should be noted that MC is now 3-0-1 against top two (BC/BU), but 0-3-0 so far against the bottom three (UMA, ME, NU)
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Going in to Friday's play, we had figured out where BC stood for range.Given the night's results, we can change that to:Originally posted by Todd View PostThat puts all five of those teams at exactly 28 to BC's 27. Any movement from these six teams that isn't described above means that BC will start looking at TBs or just move past some of these cleanly. For now, however, BC is still 1-6.Originally posted by Todd View Post
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Even though BU lost, there is still some good news in Terrier Nation based on other teams losing as well. UMA (Max 15), ME (19), and NU (23) are all already behind BU's 24. CT's loss drops their Max to 24. Without looking at CT v BU tbs, CT's new Max means that the coming UNH (27) v CT series puts one of those two at 23 or below. That's now four teams that have to be behind BU, so BU clinches a Home series.
MC (25) and UVM (28) also play a pair, meaning that one of them has to fall to 24 or lower. However, MC has the H2H tb, so BU doesn't move their range up another notch. UVM and UNH finish their series tomorrow, but that doesn't necessarily impact BU's range since they are in different pairs here.
BU split with CT and UVM, but was swept by MC and would be swept by UNH to stay at 24. None of those tbs look promising for the Terriers, whether H2H or RRR. Given that, I'm fine with saving all that TB and RRR time for tonight and saying that BU has clinched 1-8, but that's it.
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PC's 22 pts put them ahead of UMA (15) and ME (19). CT (24) and NU (23) play a pair, which means one of them has to be 21 or below. That's a 3rd team, so PC is 1-9.
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At 21, ND and UML move ahead of ME's 19 to go to 1-10.
CT split with ND and would lose on TB2 (CT would have 5 ties to ND's 3), but was 1-0-1 vs UML.
NU split with UML (and would lose TB2 3 ties to 1), but was 0-1-1 vs ND.
It's clear that UML could still come out at the bottom of the CT tb, so UML stays 1-10.
ND would win either a CT or NU tb, but what about RRRs?
Of the other four teams who could be at 21, ND's results are 1-0-1 vs UVM and UNH (and NU, above) and 1-1-0 vs UML and MC (and CT, above). For ND to still be 1-10 (and not 1-9), they would have to lose every promotion out of the RRR, including the last H2H. If that's with UVM, UNH or NU, ND isn't last. They win on TB2 (above) vs CT, and would similarly beat MC - in part because CT and MC tied twice, splitting 0-0-2 instead of 1-1-0. However, UML is one win ahead of ND, and if they both stayed at 21, that wouldn't change. UML would beat ND on TB2.
Can we find a RRR (that includes at least one of CT or NU) that puts UML v ND as the final two?
Well, UML/ND/NU has UML splitting with both, so ND's above-.500 record promotes ND. UML/ND/CT has UML at 1-2-1, ND at 2-2-0 and CT at 2-1-1. CT is promoted, then UML takes ND on TB2.
Which means ND can still be 10th. ND: 1-10.
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It seems like UVM (Max 28) can still be the 1 seed, but we showed before that we can bury BC under a five-way tie at 28. Can we distribute those points at the top to get UVM to either 28 solo, or winning the tbs?
Sure. In the BC case, we were trying to maximize the teams at the top to see if they could all pass BC. Now, we're trying to minimize the teams at the top to see if they can stay behind UVM. They can, and with plenty of room.
On the other end of the spectrum, we can still get everyone but UMA ahead of UVM's 18.
That leaves UVM at 1-11.
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Similarly, there is still room for UNH to get ahead of everyone but one (covered earlier that UNH can't win a tb at 27), but they can no longer be caught by UMA. All-but-one at both ends = 2-11.
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For CT, BC is uncatchable. BU (at 24) and ND (at 21) play two, so at least one of them has to have 25. That's two teams ahead. The best that CT can do with BU is tie, so it's tempting to just let BU go and keep ND behind with a BU sweep. Still, with PC now at 22 and ND/PC on tap for two, that also means that one of them has to at least have 24.
That leaves us with either BU staying at 24 and ND passing by, which lets us leave PC back, or BU passing 24 and either PC or ND in a tie at 24. Does CT have a chance against any of them in a tb?
CT split with BU and ND (both 1-1-0), but was swept by PC. BU (2 ties) would take CT (4 ties) on TB2, but ND would have to add a 4th tie to hit 24. At TB3, ND split with BC and CT was swept. However, here we'd have to have BU sweep ND, which might let them get to the top seed. In that case, CT's split would top ND's 0-2-0 vs BU and take TB3.
So, if BU wins out and passes or ties BC (BU sweep would be the tb) for the top seed, and ND takes 3 of 4 from PC, we could have CT in as the 3 seed. CT now can't be caught by UMA, so their range is 3-11.
(cont'd in next post)Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
(cont'd from last post)
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UConn's loss Maxes them at 26, which means they can't catch BC's banked 27 and can no longer be top seed.
Last week, we figured out that BC could be behind 5 teams, but that relied on CT taking at least 3 from PC and staying in the mix. Actually, we sacrificed PC (since they played both ND and CT) and gave CT a sweep to be clear of 27. Since CT lost 2 to PC and is sub-27, how does that impact BC?
Well, now that CT is out, we can still get 5 teams clear of 27 without needing to get into tbs.
We already saw that UVM (Max 30) and UNH (27) play two, so only one of those can reach (UNH or UVM) or surpass (UVM only) 27. We wrote off UNH last time because they also play CT. Now that CT is out of play, we could also add in UNH to a RR at 27, but a) they didn't come out ahead of any of those, b) their sweep by BC doesn't lessen BC's chances in any scenario, and c) they would pull down UVM.
So, the teams behind BC are the bottom six.
ND and PC can split, bringing PC's max to 28 and ND's to 29. PC can win out to hit 28. UVM can win out for 30. BU (Max 34, 3 games with ND and UML), ND (29 and BUx2), and UML (29 and BUx1) have enough points to spread that each can be at 28 or above. Example: BU takes only one from both and ND/UML end up at 28 while BU only loses 4 points off their Max.
BC is still 1-6, but now we have identified the other five teams, which makes it easier going forward. There are only four points to spare above 28 for these five teams, so BC moving to 28 or 29 will move them up into at least a tie for 5th (28) or a Bye (29). Losses of more than four points among the others would also likely give BC a Bye. Maybe more, maybe less, depending on distribution of games and points, and tbs available.
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Similarly, BU hasn't clinched home ice yet, but with 4 teams below 26 Max, a Terrier win gives them a home series. A BU win plus bad outcomes for CT and UNH looks to separate BU from the bottom six and move BU up to 1-6.
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At the bottom end, we can still have UNH, NU, MC, ME all end up below UMA at 17, leaving UMA a shot at 8th and a home series. In fact, they can all end up at 15 or below at this point (15x3 & 13 or 15x2 & 14x2), so UMA still has a little wiggle room. However, one loss by UMA drops their Max to 15 and we're looking at tie-breaks and rapidly approaching a lock on no-better-than 10, then 11, then 12.Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Wed 2/8:
PC 4 @ CT 1
Fri 2/10:
MC @ BC
ND @ ME
UMA @ NU
CT @ PC
BU @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Sat 2/11:
ND @ ME
UMA @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC/UVM) ---
--- Home Lock – 25 (MC) ---BC 27 - 37 [1-6]
--------- Bleen Line --------------BU 24 - 34 [1-9] PC 20 - 30 [1-10] ND 19 - 31 [1-11] UML 19 - 29 [1-11] UVM 18 - 30 [1-11]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (Field) ---CT 16 - 26 [2-12] UNH 15 - 27 [2-12] MC 13 - 25 [2-12] NU 13 - 23 [3-12] ME 9 - 21 [3-12]
--- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/NU/ME/MC) ---UMA 5 - 17 [8-12]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
PC - CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {5}
ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {6}
UML - BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {5}
UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {6}
CT - @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {5}
UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {6}
MC - @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {6}
NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {6}
UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}
Regular readers of this thread may have noticed that I will occasionally find something in the numbers that at first is an oddity and then becomes a trend. For example, you might remember a few years ago (12-13) when it seemed like nearly every BU game for an extended period had the Terriers either scoring or letting up three goals.
Well, this year it seems that HE teams are scoring at least once late (final 2 mins) in the period of every game for the last couple of weeks, and not just ENGs, either.Originally posted by Todd View Post
On Wednesday, PC added to the trend by scoring with :30 left in the 1st in their 4-1 win over UConn. I don't expect that this trend will continue - but I thought the BU 3-goal thing would be a short-term blip too. (FWIW, in the non-league Beanpot games, NU scored twice on Harvard in the final 2:00: 18:08 of the 2nd on a PPG, and 18:27 on an ENG. BU & BC did not comply.)
In any event, don't sleep on Hockey East.
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Friday, everyone is on the docket, so we have six league games. Saturday, we drop to three. BC/BU/NU all have the night off for the Beanpot. BU's and NU's Fri opponents match up on Sat in the same Home-road role as Fri, while BC's Fri opponent waits until Tuesday to play again. ND @ ME and UNH @ UVM repeat Fri and Sat. PC and CT don't repeat from Fri, because they played Tue in the first leg of the H/H.
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PC's Tue win leapfrogged them past three teams (ND/UML/UVM) and into third, solo. Now at 20 points, and with ME (Max 21) and NU (Max 23) still to play two, even if PC loses out, they will either be out of reach of one of those two, or in a three-way tie at 20. PC swept ME and split with NU, so they'd be 3-1-0 in the RR. The ME/NU series would be 1-0-1 ME, leaving Black Bears and Huskies both 1-2-1. RRR = PC/ME/NU.
Adding another team to the RR doesn't make PC drop behind the NU/ME pair. BC and BU are already past 20. PC staying at 20 puts ND above as well with a ND sweep. UMA is already too low. PC already swept UML and UNH, so if either/both are in the mix, it only helps PC's case. That leaves MC, CT, and UVM as possible additions to the RR.
For ME/NU to both hit 20, the only points they can lose are to each other. That leaves a ME sweep of MC, dropping MC's Max to 21. That also means a NU sweep of CT, dropping CT's Max to 22, but they are otherwise free to be at, under, or above 20. UVM has enough clearance that the MC/UVM series could leave either or both at 20. PC and UVM are already at 1-1-0 and CT would take Friday for the split. However, NU and MC are both sub-.500 with UVM, so PC's split is a strength, not a weakness. A thumbnail sketch tells me that UVM, with a winning or better record against the other three (4-1-1), would be the winner in that 4-way (PC: 4-2-0), and then we're back to where we started.
PC is 0-1-1 with MC but already has a 6-3-3 lead in points over NU/ME. Still, that looks the most promising to ding the Friars relative to NU/ME, so let's start there. MC would get swept by ME and was already swept by NU. Let's see the grid:
Adding MC makes up the 3-point difference for both NU and ME (2 wins to PC's MC tie), but all that does it take this 4-way RRR and put into a 3-way tie at the top among the same three teams we started with. Same result, with PC atop this 4-way.RRRs ME MC NU PC Total ME: 2-0-0 1-0-1 0-2-0 3-2-1 MC: 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-0-1 1-4-1 NU: 0-1-1 2-0-0 1-1-0 3-2-1 PC: 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 3-2-1
CT split with ME (0-0-2) and ME (1-1-0) to match the PC split (1-1-0), but NU would sweep CT, so that could spread this jam differently. Adding to the MC mix, we have:
That promotes NU and we redo the next four.RRRs ME MC NU PC CT Total ME: 2-0-0 1-0-1 0-2-0 1-1-0 4-3-1 MC: 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-0-1 0-0-2 1-4-3 NU: 0-1-1 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-0-0 5-2-1 PC: 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 1-1-0 4-3-1 CT: 1-1-0 0-0-2 0-2-0 1-1-0 2-4-2
That leaves PC as the only team above .500 and the next promoted. We can end there, as we're just trying to see if PC can fall to 11.RRRs ME MC PC CT Total ME: 2-0-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 3-3-0 MC: 0-2-0 1-0-1 0-0-2 1-2-3 PC: 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 3-2-1 CT: 1-1-0 0-0-2 1-1-0 2-2-2
This all means that the worst PC could do is trail one of NU/ME, rather than coming out ahead of two or more in the various RRRs. Still, PC passes one of the two as well, plus UMA, so their range is now 1-10.
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With ND/UML/UVM sitting right behind PC, that NU/ME series also means that any of those three getting to 21 this weekend would also at least move their lower range up to 10. Getting to 20 might also get them there if, as with PC, they top the tb. We'll leave those RRRs until we know more.
(cont'd in next post)Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Wednesday's outcome will be very interesting.
If home team UConn wins, they jump up to catch PC and UVM. That leaves us with five teams separated by a point and fighting for the last two byes.
If PC wins, they jump over ND, UML, UVM and into 3rd - which is a remarkable climb in a short period. Even so, we might have to wait for the weekend before we see movement in anyone's ranges, whether victorious PC's, or the MC, NU, ME grouping with games against each other still to come.
With a tie, PC moves into a tie for 3rd at 19 (with ND/UML). CT gets a little more separation from UNH and the rest of the bottom teams, and we would have five teams separated by two points instead of one.Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
I have some time to kill before a conference call, so...Originally posted by Cat lover View Post
The three-way for 8th goes like this:
This one is is pretty simple.RRRs NU MC UNH Total NU: 2-0-0 0-1-1 2-1-1 MC: 0-2-0 0-1-1 0-3-1 UNH: 1-0-1 1-0-1 2-0-2
UNH is the best of the 3-way RR, so is promoted to 8th and the final Home series.
NU swept MC, so gets 9th and a trip to UNH.
MC is 10th and goes to UConn.
The four-way for 3rd goes like this:
The 4-way tie is tougher, because I don't know what assumptions you made in the PC@ND series, so the RRR grid is incomplete. I tried to reverse engineer your standings, but I seem to have two fewer points to distribute than you ended up with. Both PC and ND have a positive record against the other two, so they're unlikely to both end at the bottom. That said, PC swept UML, so once PC is removed, UML will likely bubble up. However, when we begin, UML is .500 and UVM is below. That means that whichever of PC or ND is more above .500 - which at least one has to be, as they are both there before their series and they either split, or one becomes more positive - they get promoted first. So, we can start there. Ultimately, there are only five outcomes, so let's what we can figure out.RRRs UML UVM ND PC Total UML: 2-0-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 3-3-0 UVM: 0-2-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 1-4-1 ND: 1-1-0 1-0-1 ?-?-? 2-1-1 + ?-?-? PC: 2-0-0 1-1-0 ?-?-? 3-1-0 + ?-?-?
If PC sweeps ND: PC tops the grid at 5-1-0 and is 3rd. In the 3-way, ND is 2-1-1, UML is 3-1-0 and UVM is 0-3-1. Removing PC's sweep of UML lifts the 'Hawks up into 4th by a point over ND. Then ND took three from UVM and would be promoted to 5th. That leaves UVM 6th.
If PC takes 3: 4-1-1 still tops the RRR grid, so we get the same result as above.
If PC/ND split (1-1-0 or 0-0-2): PC gets the nod by a point, and we have the same scenario already covered.
If ND takes 3: ND's 3-1-2 tops PC's 3-2-1. ND is 3rd. In this 3-way, UML is 2-2-0, UVM is 1-3-0, and PC is 3-1-0. PC is 4th. UML swept UVM for 5th. UVM 6th.
If ND sweeps, we get the same outcome as with ND taking 3.
In sum, in this scenario:
If PC splits or better against ND, we have PC, UML, ND, UVM.
If ND wins the series, we have ND, PC, UML, UVM.
Note that, in both cases, as soon as PC gets promoted, UML is next with the removal of the PC sweep that weighs them down.Last edited by Todd; 02-08-2017, 01:21 PM. Reason: Swapped UML/UVM in the middle of the PC-promoted scenarios. Corrected now.Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Just for fun I predicted every game left in the HE schedule and came up with these results....Todd have fun with these tiebreakers
BC 33
BU 30
UML 26
ND 26
VT 26
Prov 26
UConn 24
UNH 18
Merr 18
NE 18
Maine 14
UMass 5Leave a comment:
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He did already.. he's on USCHO.. we all senseless on here..Originally posted by dillon View Post
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
lol, i don't know how he does it but you have to be in awe. #Toddisthe****Originally posted by dillon View PostLeave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Todd,. You should check yourself into a mental institutionLeave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Todd... you are really, really good at this.
Love this thread.
Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Sat 2/4:
UVM 1 @ ND 4
ME 3 @ PC 5
MC 2 @ CT 2 (OT)
UNH 2 @ UML 8
Mon 2/6:
Beanpot is non-conference
Wed 2/8:
PC @ CT
--- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC/UVM) ---
--- Home Lock – 25 (MC) ---BC 27 - 37 [1-6]
--------- Bleen Line --------------BU 24 - 34 [1-9] ND 19 - 31 [1-11] UML 19 - 29 [1-11] UVM 18 - 30 [1-11] PC 18 - 30 [1-11]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (Field) ---CT 16 - 28 [1-12] UNH 15 - 27 [2-12] MC 13 - 25 [2-12] NU 13 - 23 [3-12] ME 9 - 21 [3-12]
--- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/NU/ME/MC) ---UMA 5 - 17 [8-12]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {6}
UML - BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {5}
UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {6}
PC - @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {6}
CT - PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {6}
UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {6}
MC - @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {6}
NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {6}
UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}
Geez! Did UML have a puck-based stomach virus? I ask because it looks like most of their team skated by the UNH net and vomited rubber into it.
Seriously, poor Tirone (UNH starting G). He went into the 3rd looking like a star by keeping UNH in the game after facing 22 UML shots in just the 2nd period and only letting in one goal. However, in about 8 minutes of the 3rd, he had only faced 3 shots. Good for the UNH D. The bad news is that all three went in. Maybe he was exhausted from fighting for his life the period prior? Come to think of it, he let in 2 of 6 in the 1st. Maybe the key is to not shoot at him in bunches, but quietly sneak up on him and catch him by surprise?
Anyway... Three late goals again in this game. UNH with under :90 to go in the second, and UML twice in the final :93 of the 3rd.
CT and MC switched buildings and had a mirrored result. The visitors in both games managed a game-tying EAG with about a half minute left to salvage a 2-2 tie.
At PC, the Friars gave up a PS only seven seconds into the 3rd, but still managed to sweep ME to extend their W streak to 7. Keeping the late goals coming, PC got a PPG at 19:30 of the 2nd, and an ENG at 19:45 of the 3rd.
The Irish took 3 of 4 points from UVM with their win tonight, helped by late goals with a 4x4 at 19:42 of the 2nd and an ENG just inside the final two minutes of the game.
On the weekend, that's four games tonight and five-of-six last night where teams scored in the final two minutes of at least one period.
The league's new marketing campaign: Hockey East - Don't leave early to beat the snack line or traffic.
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The Beanpotters and UMA all had the night off. That leaves the top (BC, BU) and bottom (UMA) of the league idle as teams in the middle moved around. In the mean time, the GIH are levelling out, as we have all 5s and 6s left in games-to-play.
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ND and UML jumped past UVM and PC jumped up to meet them. That drops UVM from solo 3rd to a tie for 5th. CT sneaks ahead of UNH for 7th and MC ties NU for 9th.
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There are now six teams already above UMA's Max (17). CT (16) and UNH (15) play two, so that means a 7th team that UMA can't catch. If we promote CT, then UNH can lose out and NU/MC/ME can share points so that all four of them could stay below 17. UMA is now barely staving off a first-round bus (or plane?) ride with a range of 8-12.
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That also means ND, UML, and PC can no longer be 12th. UVM already couldn't. Each of these four could be caught by everyone but UMA, and could each top the table. All ranges 1-11.
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For BC, we now know a little more about their range. At 27, they are ahead of four teams' Max.
UNH (27 Max) and CT (28) play two, so only one of those could catch BC. UNH also plays two with UVM (30). For UNH to stay in the mix by tying BC, they have to pull down both UConn and UVM. Instead, we'll let UNH - a tie at best anyway - sink. That's five teams in BC's rear view.
CT plays PC for two. A 3-1 split leaves matching 27 Maxes. PC then plays ND for 2. A PC sweep pulls ND back to 27 as well. BU, UVM, and UML all have enough points left to clear 27.
In this 4-way (BC, PC, ND, CT) RR at 27, BC has sweep, split, sweep for a 5-1-0 record. They gave both PC and UConn two losses, so only ND could match BC (at best) if they had matching sweeps. Instead the Irish were swept by the Friars and split with the Huskies. Eagles prevail.
So, we can't get the Eagles behind this logjam. However, if we sacrifice one of these three to sink, we might salvage the other two. In this case, we can let PC give up a point or more to each of CT and ND. That leaves BC ahead of six, but cleanly behind the other five. That's how we get their range of 1-6.
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BU's 24 in the bank is ahead of three Maxes (UMA, ME, NU).
MC's 25 Max is the next vulnerable. MC's only remaining opponent still in the mix is UVMx2. MC can tie BU with the sweep tb, but they would have to take at least three from UVM (30), dropping the Cats' Max to 27.
UVM (27) plays UNH (27) twice. If they split, that's still each Maxing at 25, and that's where UVM can stay.
UNH (now 25) plays CT (28) twice. For UNH to stay at 25, CT has to drop into a tie with BU at 24. Instead, since UNH would have to sweep BU for this to matter, let's put CT at 25, and add UNH to the BU/MC mix at 24.
CT (now 25) still has a pair with PC (30). A UConn sweep closes out the Huskies at 25, and drops PC to 26. PC (26) then has a pair with ND (31) with enough points available for both to stay above 24.
UML (29) plays only BC, BU, and UMA, so it's obvious where those points would go here - all to UML, who can stay at 29.
So: BC, UML, ND, PC all with points to spare over BU. UVM and CT at 25. MC and UNH tied with BU at 24, but each swept the Terriers, so BU is third of three. I count eight teams ahead and three behind. That's what gives BU's range of 1-9.
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CT can still bottom out or top the table. Range: 1-12.
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The best hope for UNH (Max 27) for the 1 seed is to win the tb among co-champs. That has to include at least BC, who already sits at 27. However BC already swept UNH. That 0-2-0 hole leaves UNH to need another team that evens the trio at 2-2-0 all around and then win on a later tb, or add even more teams. Well, the easiest team to add is current 2, BU. UNH would have to sweep BU to max out and BU already swept BC. Just what the doctor ordered for the 2-2-0 RR tie. UNH already has 3 ties though, so they'd lose that trio on TB2, league wins. Have to add a 4th team. Is there a team that UNH has a better record against than BC and BU, without that 4th team taking the RR?
UVM would be ideal, as they would need to sweep BC to keep them at 27 and be swept by UNH for UNH to max out. Plus, UVM already split with BU. Perfect! Except... with only six games left and the sweep/swept with BC/UNH, UVM only has two games left (MC) to get from 22 to 27. 4 != 5. Basically, UNH sweeping UVM drops UVM's Max from 30 to 26 - one point shy. UVM would be a great option, but they can't get there and have UNH be there, too.
UNH winning out also removes CT from consideration, dropping CT's Max to 24. That leaves PC, UML, and/or ND. PC swept UNH, as did UML, so that doesn't help. UNH got a point from ND, so that's no deal either. The only way that helps is if ND swept both BC and BU to give UNH a 1-point advantage on the Comm Ave pair. However, that would also mean that ND had a massive 5-0-1 record against the other three, meaning UNH isn't the 1 seed anyway. As it is, ND split with BC and the BU series is TBD.
However we slice it, there aren't any ties left that UNH can win at 27. Had UVM gotten even a single point Saturday, UNH could still reach the 1 seed. Instead, their range drops to 2-12.
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At Max 25, MC can still be 2-12, and, at Max 23, NU stays 3-12.
ME, however, dropped to Max 21. Still, I can squeak ME to a 3-way RR for 3rd at 21 with CT and ND. ME would sweep ND and split w/ CT. ND and CT split. That goes to ME (3-1-0) over CT (2-2-0) and ND (1-3-0). ME also stays 3-12.Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
(part two)
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Well, we know that UMA can be 12th, but how high can they get with the remaining interplay of point sharing? We saw after Tuesday that some of the teams are going to have to get to 19 that aren't there yet. The key for UMA will be how many teams that they can't catch can we limit to stem their fall.
For starters, UMA wins out. Then, there are three teams (BC, BU, UVM) that UMA can't catch. Those teams can soak up all available points to give UMA a hand. Without playing any other games, we have UMA in a tie for 4th at 17 with ND and UML.
Now, we can't use the 5-way RRRs from Tuesday that gave us UMA up top. Why? Because UMA lost (so can't reach 19 any more) and the actual results don't match our scenario we used to distribute points to get that logjam. So, we start anew.
Right away we can see that ND (17) and PC (16) have to distribute 4 points from their series. That means at least one of them has to pass UMA (17). That's a 4th team they can't catch. No Bye for the Minutemen.
PC (16) and CT (15) also have to distribute 4 points, so one of them has to pass 17. If we let that be PC in both instances, then that's the same team and UMA is still behind only four.
That said, CT (15) and UNH (15) also have to distribute 4. That means either a new, fifth team gets past UMA at 17, or we add to the tie at 17. If we go with the tie, then UML v UNH (both at 17) has to lift one of those two. Since that's UML's only undecided game, I'm going to give UNH those two points, and keep UML (who would lose a sweep to UMA) at 17 and all games done.
Now we have CT (15) v UNH (17), so we have to promote one of those two as the fifth past UMA.
So... let's catch our breath. Where are we?
BC, BU, UVM all past UMA
ND or PC
PC or CT
CT or UNH
That means it makes sense that either we move up ND and CT, leaving PC (16) and UNH (17) back, or PC and UNH, leaving ND (17) and CT (15) back. (We could also do PC and CT, leaving ND and UNH back, but that wastes and opportunity for soaking points from PC/CT.)
What else do we have to resolve?
ME (9) plays both ND and PC. They should sweep whoever we leave behind of that pair and (to save flexibility) be swept by whoever we promote. That leaves ME with 13 points either way (see correction below).
At this point, MC (12) has only their pair with ME left undecided. Let's have MC sweep that to stay at 16 and take four points away from Maine's Max.
We still have the balance of NU's (13) schedule against CT and ME to deal with, plus the CT/MC game Saturday.
With so many games on tap for CT, and UMA sweeping PC here. It feels like we should let ND and CT go and soak up points. (I realize that UMA was swept by PC's pair-mate UNH, but don't forget UML will be in the mix at 17 in the RR and UMA will sweep them too. Still a net 4-2-0. 2-2-0 from PC/UNH is better than the 1-2-1 from ND/CT.)
Oh, look! It turns out PC has only one game remaining against Maine, since they played Friday. So much the better. Plus, at 16, we want PC in the RR with UMA at 17, so they can tie Maine to soak that point away from ME leaving them at 10, not 13.
That just leaves us with ME (10) and NU (13). Anything but a NU sweep leaves both behind UMA. In fact, along with MC (16), the only teams behind UMA. However, that leaves us open to pulling NU into the RR in case that helps UMA. We could also move MC a point up if that helps. Since UMA has a MC sweep, I'm going to do that pre-emptively by either taking one from CT (well past UMA now) or ME (well below).
So:
BC, BU, UVM, CT, ND all past 17.
UMA at 17 with MC, UML, UNH, PC.
ME behind.
NU pending.
OK. Let's see how the 5-way RR would work before adding in NU if needed. A lot of UMA sweeps in here, so I'm optimistic.
There we have it.RRRs UMA MC UML UNH PC Total UMA: 2-0-0 2-0-0 0-2-0 2-0-0 6-2-0 MC: 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-1-1 1-0-1 1-5-2 UML: 0-2-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 3-5-0 UNH: 2-0-0 1-0-1 1-1-0 0-2-0 4-3-1 PC: 0-2-0 0-1-1 2-0-0 2-0-0 4-3-1
Now, what is it we "have"...
Due to our selective picking of UMA being in ties predominately with teams they sweep, they come out atop this jam. Better yet, we don't have to add NU because we only need one answer that works.
With UMA having a 6-2-0 record and giving 0-2-0 to three of the other four teams, the only real concerns were 1) if one of the three that UMA swept in turn swept the others and we had a tb among 6-2-0 teams, or 2) that UNH (the "fourth" team) would ride their 2-0-0 start and lose fewer than 4 points to the rest of the grid. #1 wouldn't really be an issue because any of those three would lose H2H vs UMA due to the sweep.
#2 wasn't settled however until the last match-up on the grid. UNH was 4-1-1 with PC pending. If they had swept PC, their 6-1-1 would best UMA. Even 1-0-1 from PC would leave them with 12 points (5-1-2) to match UMA. The league has never clarified how to break such a tie ("best record": do they go by points (go to TBs) or is 6-2-0 better because of more wins... or 5-1-2 better because of fewer losses?) Assuming a tie, they would go H2H and the UNH sweep would move UNH up. Then UMA's 6-0-0 record would leave them next in line.
As it turns out, the sweep went the other way, with PC taking 2-0-0 from UNH - so, UMA wins the grid.
That means that selecting ND and CT to move up and soak points worked out. We limited the damage to only losing two more places and UMA can still be... 6th.
UMA range: 6-12.Leave a comment:
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Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Fri 2/3:
UMA 1 @ BU 3
CT 2 @ MC 2 (OT)
UVM 4 @ ND 4 (OT)
UML 6 @ NU 4
ME 2 @ PC 3
BC 6 @ UNH 4
Sat 2/4:
UVM @ ND
ME @ PC
MC @ CT
UNH @ UML
Mon 2/6:
Beanpot is non-conference
Wed 2/8:
PC @ CT
--- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC) ---
--- Home Lock – 26 (MC) ---BC 27 - 37 [1-6]
--------- Bleen Line ------------------------------------BU 24 - 34 [1-9] UVM 18 - 32 [1-11] ND 17 - 31 [1-12] UML 17 - 29 [1-12] PC 16 - 30 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (RR tie) ---UNH 15 - 29 [1-12] CT 15 - 29 [1-12] NU 13 - 23 [3-12] MC 12 - 26 [2-12] ME 9 - 23 [3-12]
--- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/CT) ---UMA 5 - 17 [6-12]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
UVM - @ND, UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {7}
ND - UVM, @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {7}
UML - UNH, BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {6}
PC - ME, @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {7}
UNH - @UML, @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {7}
CT - MC, PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {7}
NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
MC - @CT, @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {7}
ME - @PC, NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {7}
UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}
On Friday, we had a lot of late-period and late-game heroics across the league.
At MC, CT got the EAG at 19:27 to send that game to OT, where it ended in a draw.
In South Bend, each team got late-in-the-period goals with ND scoring in the final 3:30 of the 1st and UVM scoring with just over 2:00 left in the 2nd. UVM followed with two more in the first 2:00 of the 3rd. Trailing 4-2 late, ND drew closer at 16:50 and got the EAG PPG at 18:47 to pull out the tie there as well.
In a 2-2 deadlock with ME, PC got the game-winner with a PPG inside the final 2:00 at Schneider. That extends the Friars' win streak to six.
At the Whitt, UNH had turned a 5-2 deficit to BC into a 5-4 nail-biter with a 6x4 as the game's end drew near. BC potted the ENG shortie in the final minute for a 6-4 final, earning their fourth in a row since the BU sweep. That also extends UNH's winless streak to six (0-4-2).
Not to be outdone, UML scored in the final 2:00 of each period at Matthews. Those three goals, including a late ENG, proved the difference in the 6-4 victory over NU, stopping the Huskies' win streak at four. That also rights the UML ship after losing four straight.
At Agganis, there was no late-period drama, but UMA's woes continue (9 straight Ls and 14 of 15), while BU is now riding a 10-game win streak against all teams not based in North Andover (0-2-0) into their match-up with BC in the Beanpot nightcap.
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Speaking of the Beanpot, we're now at the point where the GIH start to even out as the Beanpot schools (BU, BC, NU) play NC games. Coming into Friday night's play, those teams each had six HE games left, the UMasses (A and L) had seven each, and the rest of the league had eight each. After Friday, when everyone played, drop all of those by one.
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So far this year, since this thread started, the teams have been drawing closer in the middle, but no one has flipped position in the stack yet. As things tighten, that means that when someone does make a move, it may be a big jump. It also means that once a threshold of any kind is crossed - bye, home, road, range (top or bottom) - it may be in a burst, either a lot of teams cross at once or a team rises or falls many positions. With the two schools at the top being on the short end of the GIH tally, it should also be interesting to see who moves up by climbing over whom to get separation from the pack.
The first team to change in the stack this year is PC, who jumps past both CT and UNH and into 6th. That leap also places them only a point behind ND and UML in a tie for the final Bye and two points behind UVM for 3rd.
Another team at risk of a negative burst is UMA. On Tuesday, we still had UMA in the hunt for a Bye. They are now a possible two points away from being locked into a first round Road trip.
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At the top of the leaderboard, BC's W combined with three Ls and a T from the bottom four, now puts the Eagles ahead of the Maxes of all of those teams. That means that with or without the Bye, BC won't be on the road for their first playoff series. It also means that none of those teams can reach the 1 seed.
Looking at the remaining league slate, UML, UNH and CT all have Maxes of 29, but UNH and CT finish with a pair and UML and UNH play Saturday. If each team loses only two points (UNH over UML, UNH/CT split), then they could all still match BC's 27. Without even getting in to that 4-way RR, we then see that PC (30 max) plays CT for two, meaning that one of those has to fall to at least 26. That's some combination of five teams that can't catch BC. In fact, looking at the rest of the mix and spreading available points in available games, the worst I can do for BC's positioning is get them down to 6th. So raise their range Min from 9 to 6.
See... bursts.
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At 24, BU is now clear of the lowest three Maxes (UMA, ME, NU), taking their range Min at least from 11 to 9.
I can get everyone else clear of BU at 25 or higher, but there are a number of teams at 25 or 26. Even if MC were to fall to 24, they would take the H2H tb, so we'd have the same result. BU's range is 1-9. No Home Ice yet for the Terriers, but it's close.
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UVM's 18 is also clear of UMA's 17 Max, so the Cats can't be last. There are plenty of points to spread around to put UVM in 11th, though. The same is true at the top where they could end up #1. Range 1-11.
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ND and UMA could tie at 17 and at the bottom alone. UMA gets promoted on the second TB, so ND can still be 12th. The Irish could also clear the rest of the league by as many as four points, taking the top seed in a walk. Range: 1-12.
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Similarly, UML could bottom out with UMA, which would include a UMA sweep on back-to-back Saturdays. That puts UML 12th. On the other end of the spectrum, UML could go into their final game with BC needing only a tie to take the TB (1-0-1) and the 1 seed, or win to take the title outright. Range: 1-12.
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PC can still end up below UMA by one at the bottom for #12, or clear the league by three at the top for #1. Range: 1-12.
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UNH and CT can each be last by 2 or first by 2. Range: 1-12.
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NU (Max 23) can no longer catch BC (27) or BU (24). That makes them top out at 3rd, but they can settle there above the rest of the fray. Range: 3-12.
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While MC is a point behind NU in the standings, they have 2 GIH. That allows them to be below everyone, but also ahead of everyone but BC. Range: 2-12.
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Maine also has 2 GIH over NU, but since they're four points back, that just gives them the same Max. The remaining schedule gives them the same range: 3-12.
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Due to character restrictions, the long UMA analysis is in the next post.
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Going into Saturday's games, the Bye Eligible line is still at 19.
However, since PC and ND play two, one of their Maxes has to drop to 29 or lower, along with the UML/UNH/CT. That puts the Bye Lock line (guaranteed 4th or higher) at 30 (eventually 29 with tbs), to get past all the 29s.
I suspect that the Home Lock and R1 lines may need to drop due to schedule interplay, but I'll leave those in their simple forms (banked points and single-team Maxes) until they're discovered in the analysis.
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With so much in flux in the pairwise, we'll wait until the Saturday games are complete for a status review there.
(cont'd in next post)Leave a comment:
Leave a comment: