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Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

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  • #16
    Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

    (part two)

    ---
    Well, we know that UMA can be 12th, but how high can they get with the remaining interplay of point sharing? We saw after Tuesday that some of the teams are going to have to get to 19 that aren't there yet. The key for UMA will be how many teams that they can't catch can we limit to stem their fall.

    For starters, UMA wins out. Then, there are three teams (BC, BU, UVM) that UMA can't catch. Those teams can soak up all available points to give UMA a hand. Without playing any other games, we have UMA in a tie for 4th at 17 with ND and UML.

    Now, we can't use the 5-way RRRs from Tuesday that gave us UMA up top. Why? Because UMA lost (so can't reach 19 any more) and the actual results don't match our scenario we used to distribute points to get that logjam. So, we start anew.

    Right away we can see that ND (17) and PC (16) have to distribute 4 points from their series. That means at least one of them has to pass UMA (17). That's a 4th team they can't catch. No Bye for the Minutemen.

    PC (16) and CT (15) also have to distribute 4 points, so one of them has to pass 17. If we let that be PC in both instances, then that's the same team and UMA is still behind only four.

    That said, CT (15) and UNH (15) also have to distribute 4. That means either a new, fifth team gets past UMA at 17, or we add to the tie at 17. If we go with the tie, then UML v UNH (both at 17) has to lift one of those two. Since that's UML's only undecided game, I'm going to give UNH those two points, and keep UML (who would lose a sweep to UMA) at 17 and all games done.

    Now we have CT (15) v UNH (17), so we have to promote one of those two as the fifth past UMA.

    So... let's catch our breath. Where are we?
    BC, BU, UVM all past UMA
    ND or PC
    PC or CT
    CT or UNH

    That means it makes sense that either we move up ND and CT, leaving PC (16) and UNH (17) back, or PC and UNH, leaving ND (17) and CT (15) back. (We could also do PC and CT, leaving ND and UNH back, but that wastes and opportunity for soaking points from PC/CT.)

    What else do we have to resolve?

    ME (9) plays both ND and PC. They should sweep whoever we leave behind of that pair and (to save flexibility) be swept by whoever we promote. That leaves ME with 13 points either way (see correction below).

    At this point, MC (12) has only their pair with ME left undecided. Let's have MC sweep that to stay at 16 and take four points away from Maine's Max.

    We still have the balance of NU's (13) schedule against CT and ME to deal with, plus the CT/MC game Saturday.

    With so many games on tap for CT, and UMA sweeping PC here. It feels like we should let ND and CT go and soak up points. (I realize that UMA was swept by PC's pair-mate UNH, but don't forget UML will be in the mix at 17 in the RR and UMA will sweep them too. Still a net 4-2-0. 2-2-0 from PC/UNH is better than the 1-2-1 from ND/CT.)

    Oh, look! It turns out PC has only one game remaining against Maine, since they played Friday. So much the better. Plus, at 16, we want PC in the RR with UMA at 17, so they can tie Maine to soak that point away from ME leaving them at 10, not 13.

    That just leaves us with ME (10) and NU (13). Anything but a NU sweep leaves both behind UMA. In fact, along with MC (16), the only teams behind UMA. However, that leaves us open to pulling NU into the RR in case that helps UMA. We could also move MC a point up if that helps. Since UMA has a MC sweep, I'm going to do that pre-emptively by either taking one from CT (well past UMA now) or ME (well below).

    So:
    BC, BU, UVM, CT, ND all past 17.
    UMA at 17 with MC, UML, UNH, PC.
    ME behind.
    NU pending.

    OK. Let's see how the 5-way RR would work before adding in NU if needed. A lot of UMA sweeps in here, so I'm optimistic.

    RRRs UMA MC UML UNH PC Total
    UMA: 2-0-0 2-0-0 0-2-0 2-0-0 6-2-0
    MC: 0-2-0 0-2-0 0-1-1 1-0-1 1-5-2
    UML: 0-2-0 2-0-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 3-5-0
    UNH: 2-0-0 1-0-1 1-1-0 0-2-0 4-3-1
    PC: 0-2-0 0-1-1 2-0-0 2-0-0 4-3-1
    There we have it.

    Now, what is it we "have"...

    Due to our selective picking of UMA being in ties predominately with teams they sweep, they come out atop this jam. Better yet, we don't have to add NU because we only need one answer that works.

    With UMA having a 6-2-0 record and giving 0-2-0 to three of the other four teams, the only real concerns were 1) if one of the three that UMA swept in turn swept the others and we had a tb among 6-2-0 teams, or 2) that UNH (the "fourth" team) would ride their 2-0-0 start and lose fewer than 4 points to the rest of the grid. #1 wouldn't really be an issue because any of those three would lose H2H vs UMA due to the sweep.

    #2 wasn't settled however until the last match-up on the grid. UNH was 4-1-1 with PC pending. If they had swept PC, their 6-1-1 would best UMA. Even 1-0-1 from PC would leave them with 12 points (5-1-2) to match UMA. The league has never clarified how to break such a tie ("best record": do they go by points (go to TBs) or is 6-2-0 better because of more wins... or 5-1-2 better because of fewer losses?) Assuming a tie, they would go H2H and the UNH sweep would move UNH up. Then UMA's 6-0-0 record would leave them next in line.

    As it turns out, the sweep went the other way, with PC taking 2-0-0 from UNH - so, UMA wins the grid.

    That means that selecting ND and CT to move up and soak points worked out. We limited the damage to only losing two more places and UMA can still be... 6th.

    UMA range: 6-12.
    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
    cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
    smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
    MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
    Scarlet - What he said.
    brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
    TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
    Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
    David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
    Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

      After Sat 2/4:
      UVM 1 @ ND 4
      ME 3 @ PC 5
      MC 2 @ CT 2 (OT)
      UNH 2 @ UML 8

      Mon 2/6:
      Beanpot is non-conference

      Wed 2/8:
      PC @ CT

      --- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC/UVM) ---
      BC 27 - 37 [1-6]
      --- Home Lock – 25 (MC) ---
      BU 24 - 34 [1-9]
      ND 19 - 31 [1-11]
      UML 19 - 29 [1-11]
      UVM 18 - 30 [1-11]
      PC 18 - 30 [1-11]
      --------- Bleen Line --------------
      CT 16 - 28 [1-12]
      UNH 15 - 27 [2-12]
      MC 13 - 25 [2-12]
      NU 13 - 23 [3-12]
      ME 9 - 21 [3-12]
      --- Bye Eligible - 19 (Field) ---
      UMA 5 - 17 [8-12]
      --- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/NU/ME/MC) ---

      Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
      BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
      BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
      ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {6}
      UML - BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {5}
      UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {6}
      PC - @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {6}
      CT - PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {6}
      UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {6}
      MC - @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {6}
      NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
      ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {6}
      UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}

      Geez! Did UML have a puck-based stomach virus? I ask because it looks like most of their team skated by the UNH net and vomited rubber into it.

      Seriously, poor Tirone (UNH starting G). He went into the 3rd looking like a star by keeping UNH in the game after facing 22 UML shots in just the 2nd period and only letting in one goal. However, in about 8 minutes of the 3rd, he had only faced 3 shots. Good for the UNH D. The bad news is that all three went in. Maybe he was exhausted from fighting for his life the period prior? Come to think of it, he let in 2 of 6 in the 1st. Maybe the key is to not shoot at him in bunches, but quietly sneak up on him and catch him by surprise?

      Anyway... Three late goals again in this game. UNH with under :90 to go in the second, and UML twice in the final :93 of the 3rd.

      CT and MC switched buildings and had a mirrored result. The visitors in both games managed a game-tying EAG with about a half minute left to salvage a 2-2 tie.

      At PC, the Friars gave up a PS only seven seconds into the 3rd, but still managed to sweep ME to extend their W streak to 7. Keeping the late goals coming, PC got a PPG at 19:30 of the 2nd, and an ENG at 19:45 of the 3rd.

      The Irish took 3 of 4 points from UVM with their win tonight, helped by late goals with a 4x4 at 19:42 of the 2nd and an ENG just inside the final two minutes of the game.

      On the weekend, that's four games tonight and five-of-six last night where teams scored in the final two minutes of at least one period.

      The league's new marketing campaign: Hockey East - Don't leave early to beat the snack line or traffic.

      ---
      The Beanpotters and UMA all had the night off. That leaves the top (BC, BU) and bottom (UMA) of the league idle as teams in the middle moved around. In the mean time, the GIH are levelling out, as we have all 5s and 6s left in games-to-play.

      ---
      ND and UML jumped past UVM and PC jumped up to meet them. That drops UVM from solo 3rd to a tie for 5th. CT sneaks ahead of UNH for 7th and MC ties NU for 9th.

      ---
      There are now six teams already above UMA's Max (17). CT (16) and UNH (15) play two, so that means a 7th team that UMA can't catch. If we promote CT, then UNH can lose out and NU/MC/ME can share points so that all four of them could stay below 17. UMA is now barely staving off a first-round bus (or plane?) ride with a range of 8-12.

      ---
      That also means ND, UML, and PC can no longer be 12th. UVM already couldn't. Each of these four could be caught by everyone but UMA, and could each top the table. All ranges 1-11.

      ---
      For BC, we now know a little more about their range. At 27, they are ahead of four teams' Max.

      UNH (27 Max) and CT (28) play two, so only one of those could catch BC. UNH also plays two with UVM (30). For UNH to stay in the mix by tying BC, they have to pull down both UConn and UVM. Instead, we'll let UNH - a tie at best anyway - sink. That's five teams in BC's rear view.

      CT plays PC for two. A 3-1 split leaves matching 27 Maxes. PC then plays ND for 2. A PC sweep pulls ND back to 27 as well. BU, UVM, and UML all have enough points left to clear 27.

      In this 4-way (BC, PC, ND, CT) RR at 27, BC has sweep, split, sweep for a 5-1-0 record. They gave both PC and UConn two losses, so only ND could match BC (at best) if they had matching sweeps. Instead the Irish were swept by the Friars and split with the Huskies. Eagles prevail.

      So, we can't get the Eagles behind this logjam. However, if we sacrifice one of these three to sink, we might salvage the other two. In this case, we can let PC give up a point or more to each of CT and ND. That leaves BC ahead of six, but cleanly behind the other five. That's how we get their range of 1-6.

      ---
      BU's 24 in the bank is ahead of three Maxes (UMA, ME, NU).

      MC's 25 Max is the next vulnerable. MC's only remaining opponent still in the mix is UVMx2. MC can tie BU with the sweep tb, but they would have to take at least three from UVM (30), dropping the Cats' Max to 27.

      UVM (27) plays UNH (27) twice. If they split, that's still each Maxing at 25, and that's where UVM can stay.

      UNH (now 25) plays CT (28) twice. For UNH to stay at 25, CT has to drop into a tie with BU at 24. Instead, since UNH would have to sweep BU for this to matter, let's put CT at 25, and add UNH to the BU/MC mix at 24.

      CT (now 25) still has a pair with PC (30). A UConn sweep closes out the Huskies at 25, and drops PC to 26. PC (26) then has a pair with ND (31) with enough points available for both to stay above 24.

      UML (29) plays only BC, BU, and UMA, so it's obvious where those points would go here - all to UML, who can stay at 29.

      So: BC, UML, ND, PC all with points to spare over BU. UVM and CT at 25. MC and UNH tied with BU at 24, but each swept the Terriers, so BU is third of three. I count eight teams ahead and three behind. That's what gives BU's range of 1-9.

      ---
      CT can still bottom out or top the table. Range: 1-12.

      ---
      The best hope for UNH (Max 27) for the 1 seed is to win the tb among co-champs. That has to include at least BC, who already sits at 27. However BC already swept UNH. That 0-2-0 hole leaves UNH to need another team that evens the trio at 2-2-0 all around and then win on a later tb, or add even more teams. Well, the easiest team to add is current 2, BU. UNH would have to sweep BU to max out and BU already swept BC. Just what the doctor ordered for the 2-2-0 RR tie. UNH already has 3 ties though, so they'd lose that trio on TB2, league wins. Have to add a 4th team. Is there a team that UNH has a better record against than BC and BU, without that 4th team taking the RR?

      UVM would be ideal, as they would need to sweep BC to keep them at 27 and be swept by UNH for UNH to max out. Plus, UVM already split with BU. Perfect! Except... with only six games left and the sweep/swept with BC/UNH, UVM only has two games left (MC) to get from 22 to 27. 4 != 5. Basically, UNH sweeping UVM drops UVM's Max from 30 to 26 - one point shy. UVM would be a great option, but they can't get there and have UNH be there, too.

      UNH winning out also removes CT from consideration, dropping CT's Max to 24. That leaves PC, UML, and/or ND. PC swept UNH, as did UML, so that doesn't help. UNH got a point from ND, so that's no deal either. The only way that helps is if ND swept both BC and BU to give UNH a 1-point advantage on the Comm Ave pair. However, that would also mean that ND had a massive 5-0-1 record against the other three, meaning UNH isn't the 1 seed anyway. As it is, ND split with BC and the BU series is TBD.

      However we slice it, there aren't any ties left that UNH can win at 27. Had UVM gotten even a single point Saturday, UNH could still reach the 1 seed. Instead, their range drops to 2-12.

      ---
      At Max 25, MC can still be 2-12, and, at Max 23, NU stays 3-12.

      ME, however, dropped to Max 21. Still, I can squeak ME to a 3-way RR for 3rd at 21 with CT and ND. ME would sweep ND and split w/ CT. ND and CT split. That goes to ME (3-1-0) over CT (2-2-0) and ND (1-3-0). ME also stays 3-12.
      The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
      cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
      smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
      MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
      Scarlet - What he said.
      brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
      TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
      Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
      Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
      Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
      David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
      Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

        Todd... you are really, really good at this.
        Love this thread.
        'Eavesdropped the BC forum in USCHO. A range of intellects over there. Mostly gentlemen, but a couple of coarse imbeciles' - academic_index, a Brown fan

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

          Todd,. You should check yourself into a mental institution

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

            Originally posted by dillon View Post
            Todd,. You should check yourself into a mental institution
            lol, i don't know how he does it but you have to be in awe. #Toddisthe****
            *****

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by dillon View Post
              Todd,. You should check yourself into a mental institution
              He did already.. he's on USCHO.. we all senseless on here..
              GO NU HOCKEY
              Always bullish on the future.
              We don't always win Hockey East or the Beanpot (#trilogy).. but when we do.. we are the Champions

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                Just for fun I predicted every game left in the HE schedule and came up with these results....Todd have fun with these tiebreakers

                BC 33
                BU 30

                UML 26
                ND 26
                VT 26
                Prov 26

                UConn 24

                UNH 18
                Merr 18
                NE 18

                Maine 14
                UMass 5
                New Arena New Arena where for art thou New Arena

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                  Originally posted by Cat lover View Post
                  Just for fun I predicted every game left in the HE schedule and came up with these results....Todd have fun with these tiebreakers

                  BC 33
                  BU 30

                  UML 26
                  ND 26
                  VT 26
                  Prov 26

                  UConn 24

                  UNH 18
                  Merr 18
                  NE 18

                  Maine 14
                  UMass 5
                  I have some time to kill before a conference call, so...

                  The three-way for 8th goes like this:

                  RRRs NU MC UNH Total
                  NU: 2-0-0 0-1-1 2-1-1
                  MC: 0-2-0 0-1-1 0-3-1
                  UNH: 1-0-1 1-0-1 2-0-2
                  This one is is pretty simple.
                  UNH is the best of the 3-way RR, so is promoted to 8th and the final Home series.
                  NU swept MC, so gets 9th and a trip to UNH.
                  MC is 10th and goes to UConn.


                  The four-way for 3rd goes like this:
                  RRRs UML UVM ND PC Total
                  UML: 2-0-0 1-1-0 0-2-0 3-3-0
                  UVM: 0-2-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 1-4-1
                  ND: 1-1-0 1-0-1 ?-?-? 2-1-1 + ?-?-?
                  PC: 2-0-0 1-1-0 ?-?-? 3-1-0 + ?-?-?
                  The 4-way tie is tougher, because I don't know what assumptions you made in the PC@ND series, so the RRR grid is incomplete. I tried to reverse engineer your standings, but I seem to have two fewer points to distribute than you ended up with. Both PC and ND have a positive record against the other two, so they're unlikely to both end at the bottom. That said, PC swept UML, so once PC is removed, UML will likely bubble up. However, when we begin, UML is .500 and UVM is below. That means that whichever of PC or ND is more above .500 - which at least one has to be, as they are both there before their series and they either split, or one becomes more positive - they get promoted first. So, we can start there. Ultimately, there are only five outcomes, so let's what we can figure out.

                  If PC sweeps ND: PC tops the grid at 5-1-0 and is 3rd. In the 3-way, ND is 2-1-1, UML is 3-1-0 and UVM is 0-3-1. Removing PC's sweep of UML lifts the 'Hawks up into 4th by a point over ND. Then ND took three from UVM and would be promoted to 5th. That leaves UVM 6th.

                  If PC takes 3: 4-1-1 still tops the RRR grid, so we get the same result as above.

                  If PC/ND split (1-1-0 or 0-0-2): PC gets the nod by a point, and we have the same scenario already covered.

                  If ND takes 3: ND's 3-1-2 tops PC's 3-2-1. ND is 3rd. In this 3-way, UML is 2-2-0, UVM is 1-3-0, and PC is 3-1-0. PC is 4th. UML swept UVM for 5th. UVM 6th.

                  If ND sweeps, we get the same outcome as with ND taking 3.

                  In sum, in this scenario:
                  If PC splits or better against ND, we have PC, UML, ND, UVM.
                  If ND wins the series, we have ND, PC, UML, UVM.

                  Note that, in both cases, as soon as PC gets promoted, UML is next with the removal of the PC sweep that weighs them down.
                  Last edited by Todd; 02-08-2017, 02:21 PM. Reason: Swapped UML/UVM in the middle of the PC-promoted scenarios. Corrected now.
                  The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                  cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                  smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                  MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                  Scarlet - What he said.
                  brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                  TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                  Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                  Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                  Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                  David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                  Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                    Wednesday's outcome will be very interesting.

                    If home team UConn wins, they jump up to catch PC and UVM. That leaves us with five teams separated by a point and fighting for the last two byes.

                    If PC wins, they jump over ND, UML, UVM and into 3rd - which is a remarkable climb in a short period. Even so, we might have to wait for the weekend before we see movement in anyone's ranges, whether victorious PC's, or the MC, NU, ME grouping with games against each other still to come.

                    With a tie, PC moves into a tie for 3rd at 19 (with ND/UML). CT gets a little more separation from UNH and the rest of the bottom teams, and we would have five teams separated by two points instead of one.
                    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                    cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                    smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                    MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                    Scarlet - What he said.
                    brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                    TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                    Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                    David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                    Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                      After Wed 2/8:
                      PC 4 @ CT 1

                      Fri 2/10:
                      MC @ BC
                      ND @ ME
                      UMA @ NU
                      CT @ PC
                      BU @ UML
                      UNH @ UVM

                      Sat 2/11:
                      ND @ ME
                      UMA @ UML
                      UNH @ UVM

                      Mon 2/13:
                      Beanpot is non-conference
                      NU v BC
                      HU v BU

                      Tue 2/14:
                      MC @ UMA

                      --- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC/UVM) ---
                      BC 27 - 37 [1-6]
                      --- Home Lock – 25 (MC) ---
                      BU 24 - 34 [1-9]
                      PC 20 - 30 [1-10]
                      ND 19 - 31 [1-11]
                      UML 19 - 29 [1-11]
                      UVM 18 - 30 [1-11]
                      --------- Bleen Line --------------
                      CT 16 - 26 [2-12]
                      UNH 15 - 27 [2-12]
                      MC 13 - 25 [2-12]
                      NU 13 - 23 [3-12]
                      ME 9 - 21 [3-12]
                      --- Bye Eligible - 19 (Field) ---
                      UMA 5 - 17 [8-12]
                      --- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/NU/ME/MC) ---

                      Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
                      BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
                      BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
                      PC - CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {5}
                      ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {6}
                      UML - BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {5}
                      UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {6}
                      CT - @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {5}
                      UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {6}
                      MC - @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {6}
                      NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
                      ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {6}
                      UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}

                      Regular readers of this thread may have noticed that I will occasionally find something in the numbers that at first is an oddity and then becomes a trend. For example, you might remember a few years ago (12-13) when it seemed like nearly every BU game for an extended period had the Terriers either scoring or letting up three goals.
                      Originally posted by Todd View Post
                      Last night's resolution to the BU 3-goal saga:

                      HE final: 1-0 UML. No addition to the string, but we came in with a one-over cushion

                      New tally: 16 three-goal leads and 8 three-goal responses (by either team) in the final 24 BU games of the 2012-2013 campaign.

                      That works out to an average of one (of either) per game.

                      That's just weird.
                      Well, this year it seems that HE teams are scoring at least once late (final 2 mins) in the period of every game for the last couple of weeks, and not just ENGs, either.

                      On Wednesday, PC added to the trend by scoring with :30 left in the 1st in their 4-1 win over UConn. I don't expect that this trend will continue - but I thought the BU 3-goal thing would be a short-term blip too. (FWIW, in the non-league Beanpot games, NU scored twice on Harvard in the final 2:00: 18:08 of the 2nd on a PPG, and 18:27 on an ENG. BU & BC did not comply.)

                      In any event, don't sleep on Hockey East.

                      ---
                      Friday, everyone is on the docket, so we have six league games. Saturday, we drop to three. BC/BU/NU all have the night off for the Beanpot. BU's and NU's Fri opponents match up on Sat in the same Home-road role as Fri, while BC's Fri opponent waits until Tuesday to play again. ND @ ME and UNH @ UVM repeat Fri and Sat. PC and CT don't repeat from Fri, because they played Tue in the first leg of the H/H.

                      ---
                      PC's Tue win leapfrogged them past three teams (ND/UML/UVM) and into third, solo. Now at 20 points, and with ME (Max 21) and NU (Max 23) still to play two, even if PC loses out, they will either be out of reach of one of those two, or in a three-way tie at 20. PC swept ME and split with NU, so they'd be 3-1-0 in the RR. The ME/NU series would be 1-0-1 ME, leaving Black Bears and Huskies both 1-2-1. RRR = PC/ME/NU.

                      Adding another team to the RR doesn't make PC drop behind the NU/ME pair. BC and BU are already past 20. PC staying at 20 puts ND above as well with a ND sweep. UMA is already too low. PC already swept UML and UNH, so if either/both are in the mix, it only helps PC's case. That leaves MC, CT, and UVM as possible additions to the RR.

                      For ME/NU to both hit 20, the only points they can lose are to each other. That leaves a ME sweep of MC, dropping MC's Max to 21. That also means a NU sweep of CT, dropping CT's Max to 22, but they are otherwise free to be at, under, or above 20. UVM has enough clearance that the MC/UVM series could leave either or both at 20. PC and UVM are already at 1-1-0 and CT would take Friday for the split. However, NU and MC are both sub-.500 with UVM, so PC's split is a strength, not a weakness. A thumbnail sketch tells me that UVM, with a winning or better record against the other three (4-1-1), would be the winner in that 4-way (PC: 4-2-0), and then we're back to where we started.

                      PC is 0-1-1 with MC but already has a 6-3-3 lead in points over NU/ME. Still, that looks the most promising to ding the Friars relative to NU/ME, so let's start there. MC would get swept by ME and was already swept by NU. Let's see the grid:

                      RRRs ME MC NU PC Total
                      ME: 2-0-0 1-0-1 0-2-0 3-2-1
                      MC: 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-0-1 1-4-1
                      NU: 0-1-1 2-0-0 1-1-0 3-2-1
                      PC: 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 3-2-1
                      Adding MC makes up the 3-point difference for both NU and ME (2 wins to PC's MC tie), but all that does it take this 4-way RRR and put into a 3-way tie at the top among the same three teams we started with. Same result, with PC atop this 4-way.

                      CT split with ME (0-0-2) and ME (1-1-0) to match the PC split (1-1-0), but NU would sweep CT, so that could spread this jam differently. Adding to the MC mix, we have:

                      RRRs ME MC NU PC CT Total
                      ME: 2-0-0 1-0-1 0-2-0 1-1-0 4-3-1
                      MC: 0-2-0 0-2-0 1-0-1 0-0-2 1-4-3
                      NU: 0-1-1 2-0-0 1-1-0 2-0-0 5-2-1
                      PC: 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 1-1-0 4-3-1
                      CT: 1-1-0 0-0-2 0-2-0 1-1-0 2-4-2
                      That promotes NU and we redo the next four.

                      RRRs ME MC PC CT Total
                      ME: 2-0-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 3-3-0
                      MC: 0-2-0 1-0-1 0-0-2 1-2-3
                      PC: 2-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0 3-2-1
                      CT: 1-1-0 0-0-2 1-1-0 2-2-2
                      That leaves PC as the only team above .500 and the next promoted. We can end there, as we're just trying to see if PC can fall to 11.

                      This all means that the worst PC could do is trail one of NU/ME, rather than coming out ahead of two or more in the various RRRs. Still, PC passes one of the two as well, plus UMA, so their range is now 1-10.

                      ---
                      With ND/UML/UVM sitting right behind PC, that NU/ME series also means that any of those three getting to 21 this weekend would also at least move their lower range up to 10. Getting to 20 might also get them there if, as with PC, they top the tb. We'll leave those RRRs until we know more.

                      (cont'd in next post)
                      The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                      cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                      smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                      MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                      Scarlet - What he said.
                      brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                      TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                      Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                      Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                      Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                      David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                      Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                        (cont'd from last post)
                        ---
                        UConn's loss Maxes them at 26, which means they can't catch BC's banked 27 and can no longer be top seed.

                        Last week, we figured out that BC could be behind 5 teams, but that relied on CT taking at least 3 from PC and staying in the mix. Actually, we sacrificed PC (since they played both ND and CT) and gave CT a sweep to be clear of 27. Since CT lost 2 to PC and is sub-27, how does that impact BC?

                        Well, now that CT is out, we can still get 5 teams clear of 27 without needing to get into tbs.

                        We already saw that UVM (Max 30) and UNH (27) play two, so only one of those can reach (UNH or UVM) or surpass (UVM only) 27. We wrote off UNH last time because they also play CT. Now that CT is out of play, we could also add in UNH to a RR at 27, but a) they didn't come out ahead of any of those, b) their sweep by BC doesn't lessen BC's chances in any scenario, and c) they would pull down UVM.

                        So, the teams behind BC are the bottom six.

                        ND and PC can split, bringing PC's max to 28 and ND's to 29. PC can win out to hit 28. UVM can win out for 30. BU (Max 34, 3 games with ND and UML), ND (29 and BUx2), and UML (29 and BUx1) have enough points to spread that each can be at 28 or above. Example: BU takes only one from both and ND/UML end up at 28 while BU only loses 4 points off their Max.

                        BC is still 1-6, but now we have identified the other five teams, which makes it easier going forward. There are only four points to spare above 28 for these five teams, so BC moving to 28 or 29 will move them up into at least a tie for 5th (28) or a Bye (29). Losses of more than four points among the others would also likely give BC a Bye. Maybe more, maybe less, depending on distribution of games and points, and tbs available.

                        ---
                        Similarly, BU hasn't clinched home ice yet, but with 4 teams below 26 Max, a Terrier win gives them a home series. A BU win plus bad outcomes for CT and UNH looks to separate BU from the bottom six and move BU up to 1-6.

                        ---
                        At the bottom end, we can still have UNH, NU, MC, ME all end up below UMA at 17, leaving UMA a shot at 8th and a home series. In fact, they can all end up at 15 or below at this point (15x3 & 13 or 15x2 & 14x2), so UMA still has a little wiggle room. However, one loss by UMA drops their Max to 15 and we're looking at tie-breaks and rapidly approaching a lock on no-better-than 10, then 11, then 12.
                        The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                        cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                        smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                        MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                        Scarlet - What he said.
                        brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                        TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                        Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                        Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                        Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                        David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                        Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                          After Fri 2/10:
                          MC 6 @ BC 3
                          ND 3 @ ME 2
                          UMA 2 @ NU 6
                          CT 3 @ PC 4
                          BU 2 @ UML 3
                          UNH 4 @ UVM 2

                          Sat 2/11:
                          ND @ ME
                          UMA @ UML
                          UNH @ UVM

                          Mon 2/13:
                          Beanpot is non-conference
                          NU v BC
                          HU v BU

                          Tue 2/14:
                          MC @ UMA

                          --- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC/UML) ---
                          BC 27 - 35 [1-6]
                          BU 24 - 32 [1-8]
                          --- Home Lock – 24 (UNH/CT) ---
                          PC 22 - 30 [1-9]
                          ND 21 - 31 [1-10]
                          UML 21 - 29 [1-10]
                          UVM 18 - 28 [1-11]
                          --------- Bleen Line --------------
                          UNH 17 - 27 [2-11]
                          CT 16 - 24 [3-11]
                          MC 15 - 25 [3-12]
                          NU 15 - 23 [4-11]
                          --- Bye Eligible - 21 (ND/UML) ---
                          ME 9 - 19 [7-12]
                          --- R1 Road - 16 (CT) ---
                          UMA 5 - 15 [10-12]
                          Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
                          BC - (v NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
                          BU - (v HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
                          PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
                          ND - @ME, PCx2, @BUx2 {5}
                          UML - UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {4}
                          UVM - UNH, @BCx2, MCx2 {5}
                          UNH - @UVM, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {5}
                          CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
                          MC - @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {5}
                          NU - (v BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
                          ME - ND, @MCx2, NUx2 {5}
                          UMA - @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {5}

                          MC (3rd) and BC (1st) both scored late. ME scored late (EAG 3rd) vs ND. UMA (1st) and NU (2nd) did, too. UNH got the ENG with :01 left. Despite BU having a 5x3 for most of the last 2:00 of the 1st, they did not score late - although they followed up with a 3x5 shortie to begin the 2nd. UML had an ENG on its way when the final horn went off, but ultimately, UML v BU had no late goals. CT and PC also had no lates. Still, six late goals from six league games.

                          ---
                          BC and BU losing let the 3, 4, and 5 teams - who all won - move a little closer. UVM's loss to UNH now makes them separated by only a point. UVM used to be in 3rd just a couple of weeks ago, right?

                          That UNH win also jumped them ahead of CT while winners MC and NU pulled closer to CT.

                          Going into their face off, ME had a Max of 21 and ND had 19 pts. Those numbers swapped. ME and UMA are becoming more separated from the rest of the field. Considering ME's sweep of UMA for the H2H tb, they are looking more and more like seeds 11 and 12. At least everyone makes the playoffs, I guess.

                          ---
                          It should be noted that MC is now 3-0-1 against top two (BC/BU), but 0-3-0 so far against the bottom three (UMA, ME, NU)

                          ---
                          Going in to Friday's play, we had figured out where BC stood for range.
                          Originally posted by Todd View Post
                          ND and PC can split, bringing PC's max to 28 and ND's to 29. PC can win out to hit 28. UVM can win out for 30. BU (Max 34, 3 games with ND and UML), ND (29 and BUx2), and UML (29 and BUx1) have enough points to spread that each can be at 28 or above. Example: BU takes only one from both and ND/UML end up at 28 while BU only loses 4 points off their Max.
                          Given the night's results, we can change that to:
                          Originally posted by Todd View Post
                          ND and PC can split, bringing PC's max to 28 and ND's to 29. PC can win out to hit 28. UVM can win out for 28. BU (Max 32, 3 games with ND and UML), ND (29 and BUx2), and UML (29 and BUx1) have enough points to spread that each can be at 28 or above. Example: BU takes only one from both and ND/UML end up at 28 while BU only loses 4 points off their Max.
                          That puts all five of those teams at exactly 28 to BC's 27. Any movement from these six teams that isn't described above means that BC will start looking at TBs or just move past some of these cleanly. For now, however, BC is still 1-6.

                          ---
                          Even though BU lost, there is still some good news in Terrier Nation based on other teams losing as well. UMA (Max 15), ME (19), and NU (23) are all already behind BU's 24. CT's loss drops their Max to 24. Without looking at CT v BU tbs, CT's new Max means that the coming UNH (27) v CT series puts one of those two at 23 or below. That's now four teams that have to be behind BU, so BU clinches a Home series.

                          MC (25) and UVM (28) also play a pair, meaning that one of them has to fall to 24 or lower. However, MC has the H2H tb, so BU doesn't move their range up another notch. UVM and UNH finish their series tomorrow, but that doesn't necessarily impact BU's range since they are in different pairs here.

                          BU split with CT and UVM, but was swept by MC and would be swept by UNH to stay at 24. None of those tbs look promising for the Terriers, whether H2H or RRR. Given that, I'm fine with saving all that TB and RRR time for tonight and saying that BU has clinched 1-8, but that's it.

                          ---
                          PC's 22 pts put them ahead of UMA (15) and ME (19). CT (24) and NU (23) play a pair, which means one of them has to be 21 or below. That's a 3rd team, so PC is 1-9.

                          ---
                          At 21, ND and UML move ahead of ME's 19 to go to 1-10.

                          CT split with ND and would lose on TB2 (CT would have 5 ties to ND's 3), but was 1-0-1 vs UML.
                          NU split with UML (and would lose TB2 3 ties to 1), but was 0-1-1 vs ND.

                          It's clear that UML could still come out at the bottom of the CT tb, so UML stays 1-10.

                          ND would win either a CT or NU tb, but what about RRRs?

                          Of the other four teams who could be at 21, ND's results are 1-0-1 vs UVM and UNH (and NU, above) and 1-1-0 vs UML and MC (and CT, above). For ND to still be 1-10 (and not 1-9), they would have to lose every promotion out of the RRR, including the last H2H. If that's with UVM, UNH or NU, ND isn't last. They win on TB2 (above) vs CT, and would similarly beat MC - in part because CT and MC tied twice, splitting 0-0-2 instead of 1-1-0. However, UML is one win ahead of ND, and if they both stayed at 21, that wouldn't change. UML would beat ND on TB2.

                          Can we find a RRR (that includes at least one of CT or NU) that puts UML v ND as the final two?

                          Well, UML/ND/NU has UML splitting with both, so ND's above-.500 record promotes ND. UML/ND/CT has UML at 1-2-1, ND at 2-2-0 and CT at 2-1-1. CT is promoted, then UML takes ND on TB2.

                          Which means ND can still be 10th. ND: 1-10.

                          ---
                          It seems like UVM (Max 28) can still be the 1 seed, but we showed before that we can bury BC under a five-way tie at 28. Can we distribute those points at the top to get UVM to either 28 solo, or winning the tbs?

                          Sure. In the BC case, we were trying to maximize the teams at the top to see if they could all pass BC. Now, we're trying to minimize the teams at the top to see if they can stay behind UVM. They can, and with plenty of room.

                          On the other end of the spectrum, we can still get everyone but UMA ahead of UVM's 18.

                          That leaves UVM at 1-11.

                          ---
                          Similarly, there is still room for UNH to get ahead of everyone but one (covered earlier that UNH can't win a tb at 27), but they can no longer be caught by UMA. All-but-one at both ends = 2-11.

                          ---
                          For CT, BC is uncatchable. BU (at 24) and ND (at 21) play two, so at least one of them has to have 25. That's two teams ahead. The best that CT can do with BU is tie, so it's tempting to just let BU go and keep ND behind with a BU sweep. Still, with PC now at 22 and ND/PC on tap for two, that also means that one of them has to at least have 24.

                          That leaves us with either BU staying at 24 and ND passing by, which lets us leave PC back, or BU passing 24 and either PC or ND in a tie at 24. Does CT have a chance against any of them in a tb?

                          CT split with BU and ND (both 1-1-0), but was swept by PC. BU (2 ties) would take CT (4 ties) on TB2, but ND would have to add a 4th tie to hit 24. At TB3, ND split with BC and CT was swept. However, here we'd have to have BU sweep ND, which might let them get to the top seed. In that case, CT's split would top ND's 0-2-0 vs BU and take TB3.

                          So, if BU wins out and passes or ties BC (BU sweep would be the tb) for the top seed, and ND takes 3 of 4 from PC, we could have CT in as the 3 seed. CT now can't be caught by UMA, so their range is 3-11.

                          (cont'd in next post)
                          The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                          cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                          smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                          MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                          Scarlet - What he said.
                          brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                          TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                          Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                          Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                          Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                          David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                          Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                            (cont'd from last post)
                            ---
                            Even though MC's extra GIH over CT has them a point behind in the standings yet a Max point ahead (25), they are in the same situation as CT. With the interplay between BU/ND/PC, MC could either be in a 4-way tie at 25, or one of those three has to pass them at the expense of the other two. MC swept BU, but was swept by PC, and split with ND. Unless everyone has a mutual .500, MC's 3-3-0 won't let them be promoted first out of that RRR. For them all to be at 25, ND has to take 3 from BU and 1 from PC.

                            In that case, BU (0-2-0, 1-0-1, 0-1-1 = 1-3-1) is sub-.500, which means that someone(s) else has to be above .500, so we're done. MC can't be 2nd, so might as well let ND escape with all the points and keep BU and PC below for MC in 3rd.

                            MC could still be caught by UMA, and in so doing would lose a H2H sweep. MC is 3-12.

                            ---
                            NU matches MC's 15, but only has a Max of 23. BC and BU are out of reach and either of ND/PC has to reach 24. That's three they can't catch.

                            The flip side is that NU swept UMA (so wins H2H tb) and MC (so wins that 3-way RRR). However, they could be swept by ME to have a NU/ME/UMA 3-way RRR. Still, that means ME swept the other two and gets promoted, which brings us back to NU v UMA for last, taken by NU. So, NU can't be passed by UMA. NU is 4-11.

                            ---
                            ME's Max 19 now drops them behind five teams, meaning they can't get a Bye. With UVM (18) and UNH (17) playing again, one of them has to hit 19 by Sunday morning. UNH and CT (16) also have to have a 19-pointer, as do UVM/MC(15). CT/NU(15) has to at least hit 18, but CT also has the UNH series to consider.

                            ME has to tie either UVM or MC. ME lost 0-1-1 to UVM, but would sweep MC to Max out. So move MC up to 19. To keep UVM at 18, we have to move UNH up, but that also means UNH can soak up all the CT points, so CT and NU can both stay below 19. That means six teams ME can't pass and a tb win at 7 as the best case for ME. With only 9 in the bank, ME can easily be caught by UMA, despite their H2H sweep TB. ME is 7-12.

                            Remember when we talked about surges the other week? Well, Maine just dropped four spots off the top of their range in one night.

                            ---
                            We've covered that there are nine teams that can't be caught by UMA (all the non-12s at the bottom of ranges), leaving just MC and ME to be passed.

                            UMA drops two spots from the top of their range and - finally - succumbs to being our first official Road team at 10-12. Cue Willy Nelson...
                            The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                            cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                            smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                            MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                            Scarlet - What he said.
                            brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                            TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                            Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                            Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                            Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                            David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                            Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                              Actually Todd, Merrimack is 4-0-2 when you throw PC in with BU/BC...crazy
                              Yes I am the former member known as Zlax45

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

                                Originally posted by Cat lover View Post
                                Just for fun I predicted every game left in the HE schedule and came up with these results....Todd have fun with these tiebreakers

                                BC 33
                                BU 30

                                UML 26
                                ND 26
                                VT 26
                                Prov 26

                                UConn 24

                                UNH 18
                                Merr 18
                                NE 18

                                Maine 14
                                UMass 5
                                I'm betting your predictions did not include Merrimack beating BC
                                Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult

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