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Re: 2016 WCHA Offseason; It's All Over, Save Ferris
I don’t post often but, hopefully, what I have written previously has allowed me to establish enough credibility here that what I’m about to say will be not be dismissed outright, especially since I’m unable to provide the level of sourcing I’m sure many of you will ask for. I’m going to pass along what I’ve been told by people I trust but, I simply won’t be able to be very specific about who these people are. I apologize in advance as I know that creates doubt (as well as frustration) about the information’s accuracy or validity but, with Tuesday’s announcement regarding Notre Dame, it’s evident things could possibly be happening fairly quickly and I genuinely feel I can add to the conversation in a constructive way.
A little over two years ago, I came on here and suggested a plan that I felt was the only way that the current (nWCHA) could significantly reduce the increased travel costs that the teams were obviously facing and give the conference the best chance for long term stability. That plan entailed adding two more teams and create two geographically friendly divisions (with an Alaska school in each) -- whereby the majority of each team’s league play would occur within their division, thus reducing travel costs as much as possible. In conjunction with that, I suggested moving the conference tournament to a “permanent” but smaller site that was as centrally located as possible and, with as strong of a built in hockey market as possible. I suggested Duluth as some of the previous roadblocks for going there have been reduced, if not eliminated. The league approached Duluth immediately after the realignment as it was their top choice for a smaller venue but, UMD blocked it at that time. Now, it’s my understanding there’s less resistance to that possibility and, I’ve been told that league representatives toured the building again earlier this season. Interestingly, WCHA commissioner Bill Robertson has recently gone on record as supporting a very similar, if not the exact same plan that I’ve laid out (minus the conference tourney portion). In my version, I had the teams aligned this way:
West Division: UAF, BSU, Mankato, MTU, NMU, LSSU
East Division: UAA, Ferris, BGSU, UAH, Niagra, RMU
Since then, I have learned from someone connected with RMU that it’s extremely unlikely they would accept an invitation into the WCHA as they simply are enjoying the fact they’re consistently one of the top 3 teams in AHA and feel their chances at an NCAA birth are much better than if they were to move to the WCHA. If by some chance ASU does not go to the Big 10 (and I’m not convinced they will) then, based on a conversation I had with someone close to the NCHC administration back in February, I believe ASU will end up in the WCHA. If so, then the WCHA would obviously only need to grab one team from AHA. However, based on information I received recently, I believe that there’s just as good of a chance that a different outcome could result. First though, let’s look at the timing for what might happen and how that might affect any possible changes.
Obviously, the number one thing that is driving the possibility of change is the large increases in travel costs. As davyd83 and others closely connected with some of these programs have accurately expressed, most (if not all) of these schools have seen these costs increase substantially. And, after three seasons, the extra burden is starting to take a significant toll. Next, it’s my understanding that all of the agreements that each western league has with the various conference tournament venues expire at the end of next season. If so, then any negotiations to renew these agreements or, develop any new agreements with any possible new sites would need to begin soon – I’d say by the end of the summer at the latest but, probably even earlier. Finally, what ASU decides to do will impact future decisions as well. If they end up in the WCHA, that obviously gives the league 11 teams and would make it that much easier for Robertson to get to 12 and do the two division setup and thus cut off any momentum there might be for a “new” CCHA.
However, IF, repeat IF there is any “plan” or impetus to recreate the CCHA, considering the time it would take to set up a “new” league – hire a commissioner, supervisor of officials, office staff, decide on a city/site for the office, decide and approve a conference tournament site, develop a schedule, create a board of governors -- it would not be surprising if this new league were to be announced by mid to late summer of this year or, possibly even earlier. Let me emphasize that I have not heard anything to indicate that something like this will happen this summer. Still, IF it was going to happen, isn’t the timing as good as it could possibly be at the end of this season? With that, let’s get back to the information I received recently that I referenced in the previous paragraph.
Within the last 60 days, I had a very interesting conversation with a current WCHA head coach. It lasted about an hour with the majority of it focused on the possible future conference alignments. It was his feeling that the previous realignment was driven more by a very select group of coaches and administrators, especially the decision to create the NCHC. However, it was his contention that this time, the coaches as a whole would take a greater lead and ensure that the next round of moves would be done with the long-term health of the game at the forefront. When I asked what he thought was going to happen, he said that, although nothing concrete had been decided or agreed on, there has been much informal discussion among the coaches and ADs the last year or two. First, he predicted (accurately as it turns out) that Notre Dame would leave Hockey East in the near future. He then expressed his opinion that he felt there was a good chance of a reborn CCHA or Great Lakes League. I asked him if there were any specific WCHA coaches or schools actively pushing for this as I have heard that there are. He said that two coaches/schools in particular had much stronger opinions than the others, one from the UP and one south of the UP. He also stated he felt that the UP teams would very likely stay together from here on forward, regardless of what happens. As for the Alaska schools, he simply said that there’s a real feeling among the coaches that they need to be taken care of no matter what happens as we can’t afford to lose anyone if at all possible. Finally, he wasn’t sure where ASU would go but, he didn’t think there was a high level of excitement by many of the coaches or ADs in either the WCHA or NCHA to add them simply because of the travel. To be clear, he wasn’t saying either conference wouldn’t take them as they need a home, just that people weren’t going to be celebrating behind the scenes.
I then asked about the rumors I’d been hearing that Miami and WMU were really regretting the decision to join the NCHC due to the significant increases in travel costs each had experienced. He said he had heard the same thing and that, if the CCHA were to be “reborn”, based on conversations he has had with “certain coaches”, he felt there was a “very good chance” Miami would seriously consider moving to that conference. And, he also said that if Miami moved, Western very likely would as well. The point being that, despite some poster’s opinions on here that the egos of certain coaches would prevent them/their teams from having a change of heart, if the words of this coach are to be believed, that doesn’t seem to be the case at all. In fact, I would argue that my biggest take away from this conversation is this coach’s confidence in the possibility that Miami and Western would be as open as he says they would be to the possibility of leaving the NCHC.
Again, I want to emphasize that this coach was not making a definitive prediction that anything would happen. However, he was very emphatic that, in his opinion, there was a very good chance something probably would (and needed to) happen to address the massive financial issues that most of the WCHA teams are facing and, it would happen soon. Whether or not that’s the plan Bill Robertson has put forth or, a “new” CCHA.
Based on this conversation, I believe that, although you could restart the CCHA with say, MTU, NMU, LSSU, Ferris, BGSU, and UAH, there’s no guarantee you’ll be able to grab another AHA team or two to solidify that league. And, if the recent history of the CHA and BiG10 are any indication, I would think most coaches and ADs would be very hesitant to go with a 6 team league. Therefore, it’s my opinion that the most likely way the CCHA comes back is if Miami and Western are convinced/willing to leave the NCHC. That would allow for the creation of a much lower cost bus league of MTU, NMU, LSSU, Ferris, BGSU, UAH, Miami, and Western. Obviously, IF this were to happen, the next question is, does the NCHC approach Mankato and BSU to fill the two vacant spots. That would seem to make the most sense – regardless of what certain decision-makers feelings were three years ago. If so, that leaves the two Alaska schools and maybe ASU depending on where they end up. Obviously, if this comes to fruition, then it’s very likely we will see the extinction of the most storied college hockey conference in history. Or, maybe it’s just as simple as Miami and Western leave the NCHC and go to the WCHA and the NCHC stays at 6 teams or, possibly gets ASU for a 7th with Mankato and BSU staying in the WCHA. Regardless of which direction this goes, I’m confident that whatever happens will happen sooner rather than later and most likely before the end of this summer.
I don’t post often but, hopefully, what I have written previously has allowed me to establish enough credibility here that what I’m about to say will be not be dismissed outright, especially since I’m unable to provide the level of sourcing I’m sure many of you will ask for. I’m going to pass along what I’ve been told by people I trust but, I simply won’t be able to be very specific about who these people are. I apologize in advance as I know that creates doubt (as well as frustration) about the information’s accuracy or validity but, with Tuesday’s announcement regarding Notre Dame, it’s evident things could possibly be happening fairly quickly and I genuinely feel I can add to the conversation in a constructive way.
A little over two years ago, I came on here and suggested a plan that I felt was the only way that the current (nWCHA) could significantly reduce the increased travel costs that the teams were obviously facing and give the conference the best chance for long term stability. That plan entailed adding two more teams and create two geographically friendly divisions (with an Alaska school in each) -- whereby the majority of each team’s league play would occur within their division, thus reducing travel costs as much as possible. In conjunction with that, I suggested moving the conference tournament to a “permanent” but smaller site that was as centrally located as possible and, with as strong of a built in hockey market as possible. I suggested Duluth as some of the previous roadblocks for going there have been reduced, if not eliminated. The league approached Duluth immediately after the realignment as it was their top choice for a smaller venue but, UMD blocked it at that time. Now, it’s my understanding there’s less resistance to that possibility and, I’ve been told that league representatives toured the building again earlier this season. Interestingly, WCHA commissioner Bill Robertson has recently gone on record as supporting a very similar, if not the exact same plan that I’ve laid out (minus the conference tourney portion). In my version, I had the teams aligned this way:
West Division: UAF, BSU, Mankato, MTU, NMU, LSSU
East Division: UAA, Ferris, BGSU, UAH, Niagra, RMU
Since then, I have learned from someone connected with RMU that it’s extremely unlikely they would accept an invitation into the WCHA as they simply are enjoying the fact they’re consistently one of the top 3 teams in AHA and feel their chances at an NCAA birth are much better than if they were to move to the WCHA. If by some chance ASU does not go to the Big 10 (and I’m not convinced they will) then, based on a conversation I had with someone close to the NCHC administration back in February, I believe ASU will end up in the WCHA. If so, then the WCHA would obviously only need to grab one team from AHA. However, based on information I received recently, I believe that there’s just as good of a chance that a different outcome could result. First though, let’s look at the timing for what might happen and how that might affect any possible changes.
Obviously, the number one thing that is driving the possibility of change is the large increases in travel costs. As davyd83 and others closely connected with some of these programs have accurately expressed, most (if not all) of these schools have seen these costs increase substantially. And, after three seasons, the extra burden is starting to take a significant toll. Next, it’s my understanding that all of the agreements that each western league has with the various conference tournament venues expire at the end of next season. If so, then any negotiations to renew these agreements or, develop any new agreements with any possible new sites would need to begin soon – I’d say by the end of the summer at the latest but, probably even earlier. Finally, what ASU decides to do will impact future decisions as well. If they end up in the WCHA, that obviously gives the league 11 teams and would make it that much easier for Robertson to get to 12 and do the two division setup and thus cut off any momentum there might be for a “new” CCHA.
However, IF, repeat IF there is any “plan” or impetus to recreate the CCHA, considering the time it would take to set up a “new” league – hire a commissioner, supervisor of officials, office staff, decide on a city/site for the office, decide and approve a conference tournament site, develop a schedule, create a board of governors -- it would not be surprising if this new league were to be announced by mid to late summer of this year or, possibly even earlier. Let me emphasize that I have not heard anything to indicate that something like this will happen this summer. Still, IF it was going to happen, isn’t the timing as good as it could possibly be at the end of this season? With that, let’s get back to the information I received recently that I referenced in the previous paragraph.
Within the last 60 days, I had a very interesting conversation with a current WCHA head coach. It lasted about an hour with the majority of it focused on the possible future conference alignments. It was his feeling that the previous realignment was driven more by a very select group of coaches and administrators, especially the decision to create the NCHC. However, it was his contention that this time, the coaches as a whole would take a greater lead and ensure that the next round of moves would be done with the long-term health of the game at the forefront. When I asked what he thought was going to happen, he said that, although nothing concrete had been decided or agreed on, there has been much informal discussion among the coaches and ADs the last year or two. First, he predicted (accurately as it turns out) that Notre Dame would leave Hockey East in the near future. He then expressed his opinion that he felt there was a good chance of a reborn CCHA or Great Lakes League. I asked him if there were any specific WCHA coaches or schools actively pushing for this as I have heard that there are. He said that two coaches/schools in particular had much stronger opinions than the others, one from the UP and one south of the UP. He also stated he felt that the UP teams would very likely stay together from here on forward, regardless of what happens. As for the Alaska schools, he simply said that there’s a real feeling among the coaches that they need to be taken care of no matter what happens as we can’t afford to lose anyone if at all possible. Finally, he wasn’t sure where ASU would go but, he didn’t think there was a high level of excitement by many of the coaches or ADs in either the WCHA or NCHA to add them simply because of the travel. To be clear, he wasn’t saying either conference wouldn’t take them as they need a home, just that people weren’t going to be celebrating behind the scenes.
I then asked about the rumors I’d been hearing that Miami and WMU were really regretting the decision to join the NCHC due to the significant increases in travel costs each had experienced. He said he had heard the same thing and that, if the CCHA were to be “reborn”, based on conversations he has had with “certain coaches”, he felt there was a “very good chance” Miami would seriously consider moving to that conference. And, he also said that if Miami moved, Western very likely would as well. The point being that, despite some poster’s opinions on here that the egos of certain coaches would prevent them/their teams from having a change of heart, if the words of this coach are to be believed, that doesn’t seem to be the case at all. In fact, I would argue that my biggest take away from this conversation is this coach’s confidence in the possibility that Miami and Western would be as open as he says they would be to the possibility of leaving the NCHC.
Again, I want to emphasize that this coach was not making a definitive prediction that anything would happen. However, he was very emphatic that, in his opinion, there was a very good chance something probably would (and needed to) happen to address the massive financial issues that most of the WCHA teams are facing and, it would happen soon. Whether or not that’s the plan Bill Robertson has put forth or, a “new” CCHA.
Based on this conversation, I believe that, although you could restart the CCHA with say, MTU, NMU, LSSU, Ferris, BGSU, and UAH, there’s no guarantee you’ll be able to grab another AHA team or two to solidify that league. And, if the recent history of the CHA and BiG10 are any indication, I would think most coaches and ADs would be very hesitant to go with a 6 team league. Therefore, it’s my opinion that the most likely way the CCHA comes back is if Miami and Western are convinced/willing to leave the NCHC. That would allow for the creation of a much lower cost bus league of MTU, NMU, LSSU, Ferris, BGSU, UAH, Miami, and Western. Obviously, IF this were to happen, the next question is, does the NCHC approach Mankato and BSU to fill the two vacant spots. That would seem to make the most sense – regardless of what certain decision-makers feelings were three years ago. If so, that leaves the two Alaska schools and maybe ASU depending on where they end up. Obviously, if this comes to fruition, then it’s very likely we will see the extinction of the most storied college hockey conference in history. Or, maybe it’s just as simple as Miami and Western leave the NCHC and go to the WCHA and the NCHC stays at 6 teams or, possibly gets ASU for a 7th with Mankato and BSU staying in the WCHA. Regardless of which direction this goes, I’m confident that whatever happens will happen sooner rather than later and most likely before the end of this summer.
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