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A new comparison: The Fish Rankings

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  • A new comparison: The Fish Rankings

    Shirtless Guy has a thread in which he wants to augment the Pairwise somehow. It got me to resurrect my old idea to rank teams via Poisson Regression. (Since Poisson is French for fish I call them the Fish rankings.) These are in one sense more accurate than other college rankings and in another sense less accurate. They are more accurate in that they use more information: goals scored and given up, which is obviously a lot more information than who won a game. On the other hand, they don't know anything about who won a game, so if knowing how to win is a skill, these rankings ignore them. In fact, I don't even use overtime goals at all.
    For the mathematically inclined, the Poisson model assumes goals by a team in regulation time are Poisson-distributed with a mean that is the exponential sum of an offense rating for a team and a defense rating for their opponents, plus adjustments for home and neutral ice. Once you have the scores of all the games in a statistical package, it is a single line in the statistical package Stata to estimate the model. Herewith, the Fish ratings for 2015:16:
    offense -defense total
    St. Cloud State 0.5877 0.2376 0.8253
    North Dakota 0.3730 0.4398 0.8127
    Providence 0.3316 0.4383 0.7699
    Boston College 0.5289 0.2391 0.7681
    Quinnipiac 0.4398 0.2362 0.6760
    Minnesota Duluth 0.2588 0.4014 0.6602
    Michigan 0.6581 -0.0348 0.6232
    UMass Lowell 0.1779 0.4350 0.6129
    Denver 0.3033 0.3059 0.6092
    Harvard 0.4258 0.1519 0.5777
    Notre Dame 0.3264 0.2445 0.5709
    Northeastern 0.3577 0.1607 0.5184
    Yale 0.0637 0.4327 0.4964
    Boston University 0.3599 0.1344 0.4943
    Minnesota 0.3194 0.1309 0.4503
    Michigan Tech 0.2387 0.1378 0.3765
    St. Lawrence 0.1698 0.1736 0.3434
    Minnesota State 0.0402 0.2183 0.2585
    Ohio State 0.3698 -0.1188 0.2510
    Omaha 0.2668 -0.0285 0.2383
    Bowling Green 0.1202 0.1151 0.2353
    Miami 0.0940 0.1301 0.2241
    Penn State 0.3445 -0.1345 0.2101
    Robert Morris 0.3603 -0.1637 0.1965
    Cornell -0.0547 0.1523 0.0976
    New Hampshire 0.2640 -0.1841 0.0799
    Union 0.0561 0.0225 0.0786
    Ferris State 0.0827 -0.0094 0.0732
    Vermont -0.0576 0.1138 0.0562
    Clarkson 0.0298 0.0141 0.0440
    Michigan State 0.0340 -0.0023 0.0316
    Dartmouth 0.0910 -0.0740 0.0170
    Rensselaer -0.0343 0.0493 0.0149
    Air Force 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
    Bemidji State -0.0086 -0.0253 -0.0339
    Merrimack -0.0011 -0.0372 -0.0384
    Wisconsin 0.0891 -0.1653 -0.0762
    Northern Michigan -0.0840 -0.0149 -0.0989
    Holy Cross 0.0120 -0.1353 -0.1233
    Colgate 0.1024 -0.2783 -0.1759
    Connecticut -0.0273 -0.1599 -0.1872
    Western Michigan 0.0630 -0.2519 -0.1889
    Brown 0.0812 -0.2766 -0.1954
    RIT 0.0261 -0.2453 -0.2193
    Maine -0.1293 -0.1483 -0.2775
    Army West Point -0.3021 0.0114 -0.2907
    Mercyhurst 0.0233 -0.3268 -0.3035
    Colorado College -0.0140 -0.2923 -0.3063
    Massachusetts 0.0376 -0.3457 -0.3081
    Alaska -0.0571 -0.2588 -0.3159
    Bentley -0.0344 -0.2850 -0.3194
    Alabama Huntsville -0.1061 -0.2369 -0.3430
    Princeton -0.1981 -0.1791 -0.3771
    Alaska Anchorage -0.0203 -0.3684 -0.3887
    Sacred Heart -0.1942 -0.2454 -0.4396
    Lake Superior State -0.3670 -0.0779 -0.4449
    Canisius -0.2360 -0.3121 -0.5481
    Niagara -0.4178 -0.3559 -0.7737
    American International -0.3702 -0.6043 -0.9745
    Arizona State -0.9316 -0.4919 -1.4236

    By coming first in alphabetical order, Air Force gets ratings of 0 and 0 and everyone else is defined relative to them. The most interesting thing off the top of the bat is Quinnipiac falling to 5th in these rankings. That can be taken as a "they know how to win" indicator in the same way that divergence between Pythagorean expectation and wins in baseball (for Bill James fans) is a recognition of intangibles, or luck.

    Enjoy.
    Last edited by goblue78; 03-21-2016, 09:12 PM.

  • #2
    Re: A new comparison: The Fish Rankings

    maine is too high. this is flawed....
    a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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    • #3
      Re: A new comparison: The Fish Rankings

      Interesting Stuff. Thanks for posting. Though the one thing I always like to see accounted for that Pairwise, KRACH, and this don't account for is home/road, since some teams have to travel more.

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      • #4
        Re: A new comparison: The Fish Rankings

        Robin Locke beat you to it by at least 17 years... CHODR.

        http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/

        I've run this model in the past, I usually adjust for overtime.
        BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

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        • #5
          Re: A new comparison: The Fish Rankings

          Originally posted by Patman View Post
          Robin Locke beat you to it by at least 17 years... CHODR.

          http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/

          I've run this model in the past, I usually adjust for overtime.
          I didn't say it was original, but you're right, and I have a number of variants that adjust for overtime. This is the simple model that just takes regulation time.

          And I had forgotten Robin's website. Thanks for posting that Patman...
          Last edited by goblue78; 03-21-2016, 09:23 PM.

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          • #6
            Re: A new comparison: The Fish Rankings

            I prefer the Poisson mort tables.
            CCT '77 & '78
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