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pairwise -- post jan 8th

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  • #91
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
    None. For the first eight seasons of this current format we had the CHA taking up a spot. For those eight seasons the top 12 teams qualified for 89 of 96 spots (92.7%). For the three seasons without the conference it was 34 of 36 spots (94.4%).
    Its a lot of nibbling at the margins anyhow. First we don't really have "enough" data... and I mean statistically enough... second... its harder to drop out at tournament time than it is to jump in.

    Now, college with its best of 3 format does make it doable to drop two results without a win. However, a borderline team getting hot and going 4-1 (read as first round+ QF sweep+loss in SF) is possible. For any team the most games they can drop NET is two games. (Yes, a team can go 2-3 by playing two playoff series in sequence... but you get my point).

    Nobody is "fire proof" per se... I wouldn't bet heavily on all teams 12th and above... but it isn't easy.
    BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

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    • #92
      Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

      Originally posted by Patman View Post
      Its a lot of nibbling at the margins anyhow. First we don't really have "enough" data... and I mean statistically enough... second... its harder to drop out at tournament time than it is to jump in.

      Now, college with its best of 3 format does make it doable to drop two results without a win. However, a borderline team getting hot and going 4-1 (read as first round+ QF sweep+loss in SF) is possible. For any team the most games they can drop NET is two games. (Yes, a team can go 2-3 by playing two playoff series in sequence... but you get my point).

      Nobody is "fire proof" per se... I wouldn't bet heavily on all teams 12th and above... but it isn't easy.
      to be fair, a WCHA/NCHC team could go 4-0 over the next 2 weeks and be done for the season. Big Ten could go 0-7 starting friday...ECAC/HEA/AHA are the ones that are done...the west still has some regular season games.
      Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

      Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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      • #93
        Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

        Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
        to be fair, a WCHA/NCHC team could go 4-0 over the next 2 weeks and be done for the season. Big Ten could go 0-7 starting friday...ECAC/HEA/AHA are the ones that are done...the west still has some regular season games.
        right... i'm just explaining general principle
        BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

        Jerseys I would like to have:
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        AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
        UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
        Army Black Knight logo jersey


        NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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        • #94
          Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

          Now I can't wait for the next bracketology to be released.
          tUMD Hockey

          "And there is a banana running around the DECC." "Well you don't see that every day..."

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          • #95
            Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

            Playoffstatus.com has the top five teams as 100% locks even if they lose out the rest of the way, they also have 6-8 with a less than 1% chance of falling out even if they lose out the rest of the season.
            YALE HOCKEY
            2013 National Champions

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            • #96
              Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

              Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
              Playoffstatus.com has the top five teams as 100% locks even if they lose out the rest of the way, they also have 6-8 with a less than 1% chance of falling out even if they lose out the rest of the season.
              unless they changed their method playoffstatus.com doesn't use pwr to rank teams and can't be trusted for NCAA tournament predicting.
              Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

              Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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              • #97
                Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                unless they changed their method playoffstatus.com doesn't use pwr to rank teams and can't be trusted for NCAA tournament predicting.
                I was wondering that when they had Yale at 7 instead of 8, i guess they use their own power rankings. That said, Yale just jumped over Michigan to 7 with the second Ohio State loss.
                YALE HOCKEY
                2013 National Champions

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                • #98
                  Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                  I would call the top 5 locks, and just added Denver to the list of teams I expect to see in the tournament:
                  http://collegehockeyranked.com/2016/...aa-tournament/

                  It's tough to decide when to call these, though. Think of a presidential election. With 60% of the votes in, and 80% of them going to one candidate (assuming reasonable demographics distribution), do you say the candidate has won in a landslide or do you say it's not over because the loser can still win if he gets every single remaining vote? Obviously the former. Denver is that winning candidate--it's mathematically possible for them to miss, but I wouldn't worry about it.

                  After this weekend, things will be tight enough that I'll switch over to pure mathematical certainty.

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                  • #99
                    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                    Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                    I would call the top 5 locks, and just added Denver to the list of teams I expect to see in the tournament:
                    http://collegehockeyranked.com/2016/...aa-tournament/

                    It's tough to decide when to call these, though. Think of a presidential election. With 60% of the votes in, and 80% of them going to one candidate (assuming reasonable demographics distribution), do you say the candidate has won in a landslide or do you say it's not over because the loser can still win if he gets every single remaining vote? Obviously the former. Denver is that winning candidate--it's mathematically possible for them to miss, but I wouldn't worry about it.

                    After this weekend, things will be tight enough that I'll switch over to pure mathematical certainty.
                    #1-8 & #10 are 100% locks. #9 & #11 are 99%. So 1-11 are essentially locks and #12 Harvard is at 95%. CHN has done the math.

                    http://www.collegehockeynews.com/rat...lityMatrix.php

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                    • Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                      Originally posted by Tater View Post
                      #1-8 & #10 are 100% locks. #9 & #11 are 99%. So 1-11 are essentially locks and #12 Harvard is at 95%. CHN has done the math.

                      http://www.collegehockeynews.com/rat...lityMatrix.php
                      You didn't read the rules of what that link is did you? Not to mention anyone that can finish 11th could technically be bumped by 6 lower ranked teams winning their conference tournament.

                      While it's likely that those 20,000 simulations are the most of the highest likelihood outcomes, I wouldn't say anyone below #6 is actually a lock.
                      Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                      Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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                      • Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                        My story will be posted shortly but teams ranked 1-12 at the start of conference quarters have made the tournament 94% of the time. Of teams in the top 10 only the 10th ranked 2005 Dartmouth team missed the tournament.

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                        • Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                          Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                          My story will be posted shortly but teams ranked 1-12 at the start of conference quarters have made the tournament 94% of the time. Of teams in the top 10 only the 10th ranked 2005 Dartmouth team missed the tournament.
                          I could be wrong but it does appear that it is impossible for to get the top 8 & Notre Dame out of the tournament because the only way they finish below 10, is with enough AQs above them to guarantee the cut line is below them.
                          Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                          Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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                          • Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                            Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                            You didn't read the rules of what that link is did you? Not to mention anyone that can finish 11th could technically be bumped by 6 lower ranked teams winning their conference tournament.

                            While it's likely that those 20,000 simulations are the most of the highest likelihood outcomes, I wouldn't say anyone below #6 is actually a lock.
                            No, but really, Monte Carlo simulation implies the chances are god awfully small.

                            edit: technically, they aren't the "most likely"... they're just draws from a generated distribution. For instance, I have a hard time believing the situation that puts Mankato at 3rd overall is more likely than the others in between with no results. Its just a generation in the tails... therefore (probably) not likely yet be drawn.
                            Last edited by Patman; 03-09-2016, 02:52 PM.
                            BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                            Jerseys I would like to have:
                            Skating Friar Jersey
                            AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                            UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                            Army Black Knight logo jersey


                            NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                              I could be wrong but it does appear that it is impossible for to get the top 8 & Notre Dame out of the tournament because the only way they finish below 10, is with enough AQs above them to guarantee the cut line is below them.
                              I haven't looked that far ahead yet (I so miss the PairWise calculator at slack.net) but there appears to be an RPI cushion at 12 that it will take some unusual results for any of them to miss. The bubble really is down to 13-18.

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                              • Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

                                Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                                I haven't looked that far ahead yet (I so miss the PairWise calculator at slack.net) but there appears to be an RPI cushion at 12 that it will take some unusual results for any of them to miss. The bubble really is down to 13-18.
                                There is a huge RPI cliff after 10 that is hard for anyone to overcome. UML and Harvard also have a great shot if they don't get swept and there are a ton of AQs below 12 in the final RPI.

                                I missed the slack.net page so much that I built my own excel calculator. Tech Hockey Guide is hoping to have a working web based pairwise calculator with ability to enter results for all remaining games by tomorrow night (if all goes well). I'll keep this thread posted. Big issue might be handling a load if enough people like us want to fiddle with things. As nice as CHN's calculator has been, it has never included conference tournaments (until games are scheduled) and was very difficult to tweak results (having to start from scratch every time).
                                Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

                                Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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