pairwise -- post jan 8th

[ticapnews]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

St Cloud to 5th
Am still trying to get BC to #1. Have gotten them within .0003 RPI but have not gotten them over the hump yet.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

I really want to spend some time developing a tool to rank every team based on importance to a given team. So for Team A rankings if Team 27 and Team 28 play, Team A would want Team 27 to win. To help in what you're doing ticapnews. Granted you also have to know the rankings for the other teams you're trying to flip comparisons for...and as you flip games, it changes the calc because so much is based on weighted games played throughout the calculation. I tried to do it for MTU this year, and came close but it still wasn't quite right, or method of proving it wasn't quite right.

With the RPI 25/21/54 its very hard to predict what is important to a team other than that team winning its own games. Obviously conference opponents are very important, but most of the year, they play each other...

[hockeyplayer1015]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Army
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. RIT
Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
Big Ten Semifinal #1: Ohio State def. Minnesota
Big Ten Semifinal #2: Michigan def. Penn State
Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Ohio State
Big Ten Play-in #1: Penn State def. Wisconsin
Big Ten Play-in #2: Ohio State def. Michigan State
ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth def. Quinnipiac
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. St. Lawrence
ECAC Championship: Dartmouth def. Harvard
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Northeastern
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Providence def. Mass.-Lowell
Hockey East Championship: Providence def. Boston College
NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Minnesota-Duluth
NCHC Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State def. Denver
NCHC Championship: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
NCHC Consolation: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
WCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan Tech def. Ferris State
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota State def. Bowling Green
WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Minnesota State

Because I hadn't seen it mentioned yet here, this scenario gets 5 ECAC teams in. Cornell last in at 15.

[SCSU Euro]

St Cloud to 5th
Am still trying to get BC to #1. Have gotten them within .0003 RPI but have not gotten them over the hump yet.

Not shocked you found a way to get St. Cloud to fifth, but surprised you were able to with them winning the 3rd place game, even more so with them beating UND

[Khryx]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

For those that would like another nice reference. This link shows the College Hockey News breakdown of odds making the tournament and odds at being a given overall seed. For example, this indicates based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations BC cannot achieve a overall #1 seed but has a 36% chance of getting a #1 seed. Or that Yale, ND, and Harvard are all virtual locks. Northeastern, Michigan Tech, and UMD are the teams on the bubble as far as having a chance to get an at large bid without winning their tourney.

[Khryx]

Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Army
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. RIT
Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
Big Ten Semifinal #1: Ohio State def. Minnesota
Big Ten Semifinal #2: Michigan def. Penn State
Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Ohio State
Big Ten Play-in #1: Penn State def. Wisconsin
Big Ten Play-in #2: Ohio State def. Michigan State
ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth def. Quinnipiac
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. St. Lawrence
ECAC Championship: Dartmouth def. Harvard
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Northeastern
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Providence def. Mass.-Lowell
Hockey East Championship: Providence def. Boston College
NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Minnesota-Duluth
NCHC Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State def. Denver
NCHC Championship: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
NCHC Consolation: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
WCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan Tech def. Ferris State
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota State def. Bowling Green
WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Minnesota State

Because I hadn't seen it mentioned yet here, this scenario gets 5 ECAC teams in. Cornell last in at 15.

Nice find. Here is the link for those interested.

Correction: Jim Dahl said this is 1 in 1700 scenarios based on his simulations. I previously thought Jim missed it because his table says 0%, just a very small percent chance.

On the flipside, here is an example (multiple exist) of only two ECAC teams making the tourney.

[Khryx]

St Cloud to 5th
Am still trying to get BC to #1. Have gotten them within .0003 RPI but have not gotten them over the hump yet.

I stand corrected to my previous post. BC as the #1 overall: http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_56e8beb4c1696

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Check this one out...a 3-way tie for last team in (at least to 4 decimals for RPI):
http://goo.gl/bcQDvH
How much would that suck to be the team left out in a virtual tie with 2 other teams?

[ticapnews]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

In the tournament:
Boston College
Boston University
Denver
Massachusetts-Lowell
Michigan
North Dakota
Providence
Quinnipiac
St Cloud

Need AQ:
Air Force
Army
Bowling Green
Dartmouth
Ferris State
Minnesota
Minnesota State
Ohio State
Penn State
RIT
Robert Morris
St. Lawrence

Alive, Still Playing
Harvard
Minnesota-Duluth
Michigan Tech
Northeastern

Not playing, still alive:
Cornell
Notre Dame
Yale

The scenario that gets Boston College to #1 overall is still active. Keys today: Quinnipiac upset by Dartmouth, Minnesota upended by Ohio State.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Check this one out...a 3-way tie for last team in (at least to 4 decimals for RPI):
http://goo.gl/bcQDvH
How much would that suck to be the team left out in a virtual tie with 2 other teams?

ran that scenario in my excel file and got RPI values as follows:
Michigan Tech - 0.535734
Minnesota-Duluth - 0.535725
Cornell - 0.535719

Do we really trust this method enough to rank MTU first by RPI in that scenario? Granted MTU has a better COp record against both UMD and Cornell but we're talking about 2 common opps with UMD (BSU/NMU) and 1 for Cornell (Yale).

[ticapnews]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Quinnipiac secures a top seed in the east. It will either be Worcester or Albany. If Providence wins Hockey East and Quinnipiac loses tomorrow, the Friars pass them and will be the 1-seed in Worcester. If not then Quinnipiac goes there. Boston College cannot pass Quinnipiac no matter what.

[ticapnews]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Yale still has not clinched a spot in the NCAA tournament.
"Do you ever have deja vu?"

[ticapnews]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Yale has clinched thanks to Harvard...go figure.

Notre Dame and Harvard still have not clinched.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Tech is out?

[CommAvHusky]

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Cornell too