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pairwise -- post jan 8th

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  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    I don't think Michigan Tech winning should be required in your parley? If they win, they would still bump Yale because they can't get higher than 13th, unless somehow them winning bumps Yale enough because MTU was on Yale's schedule?
    Partially correct. Different teams have different parleys. You are correct in that for Yale the winner of the WCHA is irrelevant. The conference is getting an AQ and taking a spot. For other teams it matters a great deal as Michigan Tech is ranked high enough to lose the WCHA Final and still make the tournament.

    For Notre Dame, the parley is all but one of the AQ going to upset winners (Yale gets in, ND does not). The trick is that there is a moving part since Harvard can theoretically also knock out ND by winning the ECAC SF.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
    The parley is a term I coined a few years ago to describe the confluence of events where conference autobids are won by teams outside the top 16 and thus move the cut line - and cause the elimination of a team.

    This year the parley is:
    Northeastern winning Hockey East
    Minnesota-Duluth winning the NCHC
    Dartmouth or St Lawrence winning the ECAC
    Any team except Michigan Tech winning the WCHA
    Any team except Michigan winning the B1G

    The AHA is not involved in the parley.

    The parley is why Yale is not yet safe. If the parley hits, the Bulldogs are knocked out. This is not Yale's first time at this particular rodeo.

    In 2013 Yale was a mortal lock to make the tournament, and competing for a regional #1 seed. Then it lost to Union and Quinnipiac in the ECAC tournament and had to wait as results of the Hockey East and CCHA Championship games decided their fate. If either Boston University or Michigan won a conference championship that night Yale would be eliminated.

    They came up short and Yale survived as the last team into the tournament. The Bulldogs then went on a tear and won the NCAA Championship in Pittsburgh.

    Yale shouldn't need that kind of luck again to gain a spot.

    This also is not new territory for another team of Bulldogs. In 2009, the University of Minnesota-Duluth was sitting at 18th in the PairWise and decidedly on the outside of the tournament. Further, they would have to a gauntlet to run at the WCHA Final Five, playing the Thursday play-in game for a chance to play Friday for a chance to play Saturday. UMD beat the odds, won the Broadmoor Trophy and entered the tournament as the #7 overall seed.

    The field for this season's tournament will again not be decided until the last games go final. Both the "east" and "west" #1 seeds (and thus favorable geographic locations) are still up for grabs and there will be plenty of movement within the field itself. Plus who knows...that parley might still be alive come Saturday...
    I don't think Michigan Tech winning should be required in your parley? If they win, they would still bump Yale because they can't get higher than 13th, unless somehow them winning bumps Yale enough because MTU was on Yale's schedule?

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    The parley is a term I coined a few years ago to describe the confluence of events where conference autobids are won by teams outside the top 16 and thus move the cut line - and cause the elimination of a team.

    This year the parley is:
    Northeastern winning Hockey East
    Minnesota-Duluth winning the NCHC
    Dartmouth or St Lawrence winning the ECAC
    Any team except Michigan Tech winning the WCHA
    Any team except Michigan winning the B1G

    The AHA is not involved in the parley.

    The parley is why Yale is not yet safe. If the parley hits, the Bulldogs are knocked out. This is not Yale's first time at this particular rodeo.

    In 2013 Yale was a mortal lock to make the tournament, and competing for a regional #1 seed. Then it lost to Union and Quinnipiac in the ECAC tournament and had to wait as results of the Hockey East and CCHA Championship games decided their fate. If either Boston University or Michigan won a conference championship that night Yale would be eliminated.

    They came up short and Yale survived as the last team into the tournament. The Bulldogs then went on a tear and won the NCAA Championship in Pittsburgh.

    Yale shouldn't need that kind of luck again to gain a spot.

    This also is not new territory for another team of Bulldogs. In 2009, the University of Minnesota-Duluth was sitting at 18th in the PairWise and decidedly on the outside of the tournament. Further, they would have a gauntlet to run at the WCHA Final Five, playing the Thursday play-in game for a chance to play Friday for a chance to play Saturday. UMD beat the odds, won the Broadmoor Trophy and entered the tournament as the #7 overall seed.

    The field for this season's tournament will again not be decided until the last games go final. Both the "east" and "west" #1 seeds (and thus favorable geographic locations) are still up for grabs and there will be plenty of movement within the field itself. Plus who knows...that parley might still be alive come Saturday...
    Last edited by ticapnews; 03-15-2016, 10:49 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
    Of course until the tournaments are complete, you can always speculate about a Wisconsin making the tournament, but realistically, that isn't happening. But almost no one has to watch the results of any game but their own. Win, you're in. Lose, you're done (Or lose, and you were already in anyway.). And the teams you mention will all know their fates after their semifinal game. By Friday evening, the field will be set. That's simple and merit-based, but not nearly as fun from a "hoping for pure chaos" perspective.
    To move the cut line all that has to happen in the B1G is for Minnesota - the #1 seed and regular season champion - to win the conference autobid. It doesn't have to be Wisconsin or Ohio State.

    The field isn't going to be set after Friday night. Even then there will be enough variables to keep things interesting. It isn't as chaotic as it has been in the past, but it also isn't cut and dried.

    Leave a comment:


  • brassbonanza
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    The TUC cliff change has certainly flattened things.
    Which is a good thing.

    Leave a comment:


  • SJHovey
    replied
    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    Do you really think PSU or OSU can't win the B1G? If St. Lawrence or Dartmouth win, the cut line could move 2 spots on the final day, but I do understand what you mean. The TUC cliff change has certainly flattened things.
    I tend to agree with him to the extent that this year no one can really play themselves into an at-large bid. We have about four teams sitting in at risk at large positions. They themselves have a chance to win an AQ spot, or they could get knocked out by someone else getting an AQ, but it's not like we have a bunch of bubble teams who can just play themselves into or out of at-large spots.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
    Of course until the tournaments are complete, you can always speculate about a Wisconsin making the tournament, but realistically, that isn't happening. But almost no one has to watch the results of any game but their own. Win, you're in. Lose, you're done (Or lose, and you were already in anyway.). And the teams you mention will all know their fates after their semifinal game. By Friday evening, the field will be set. That's simple and merit-based, but not nearly as fun from a "hoping for pure chaos" perspective.
    Do you really think PSU or OSU can't win the B1G? If St. Lawrence or Dartmouth win, the cut line could move 2 spots on the final day, but I do understand what you mean. The TUC cliff change has certainly flattened things.

    Leave a comment:


  • purpleinnebraska
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    What lack are you talking about? Big Ten has 6 teams alive...only one of them already in so any of the other 5 winning moves the line. ECAC has 2 teams that can move the line (while Harvard isn't guaranteed of being in, I would think most fans of bubble teams are rooting for Harvard to eliminate St. Lawrence), Northeastern and UMD are hot but they both can be out if they lose Friday (and saturday for UMD). There aren't any crazy moves anymore with the removal of the TUC cliff, but I think we can all agree thats good.
    Of course until the tournaments are complete, you can always speculate about a Wisconsin making the tournament, but realistically, that isn't happening. But almost no one has to watch the results of any game but their own. Win, you're in. Lose, you're done (Or lose, and you were already in anyway.). And the teams you mention will all know their fates after their semifinal game. By Friday evening, the field will be set. That's simple and merit-based, but not nearly as fun from a "hoping for pure chaos" perspective.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
    Thanks for the work you do on this. Always a pleasure to read.

    Gotta admit, I miss the lack of real "bubble action" this year. Realistically, we're looking at only a couple of games that can change the field. Seedings are, of course, in flux, but the field itself is essentially set.
    What lack are you talking about? Big Ten has 6 teams alive...only one of them already in so any of the other 5 winning moves the line. ECAC has 2 teams that can move the line (while Harvard isn't guaranteed of being in, I would think most fans of bubble teams are rooting for Harvard to eliminate St. Lawrence), Northeastern and UMD are hot but they both can be out if they lose Friday (and saturday for UMD). There aren't any crazy moves anymore with the removal of the TUC cliff, but I think we can all agree thats good.

    Leave a comment:


  • purpleinnebraska
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
    Here's the underlying data on the remaining possible scenarios, broken down by outcome, that I summarized above (9 in, 7 competing for at-large):
    http://test.collegehockeyranked.com/...tournament.php
    Thanks for the work you do on this. Always a pleasure to read.

    Gotta admit, I miss the lack of real "bubble action" this year. Realistically, we're looking at only a couple of games that can change the field. Seedings are, of course, in flux, but the field itself is essentially set.

    Leave a comment:


  • JimDahl
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Here's the underlying data on the remaining possible scenarios, broken down by outcome, that I summarized above (9 in, 7 competing for at-large):
    http://test.collegehockeyranked.com/...tournament.php

    Leave a comment:


  • mookie1995
    replied
    Originally posted by Siouxfaninseattle View Post
    If North Dakota remains the #1 overall seed, they will go to St. Paul.
    If BU has to be in St. Paul, Mookie would drive to see Sioux-Goofs in the other game

    Leave a comment:


  • Scarlet
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    The NCAA hasn't announced any game times yet, have they? And if not, why not?

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Originally posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
    Why would you be switching SCSU and UND?
    Because he stipulated that UND would be in St Paul. I have then in Cincinnati in that scenario.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tipsy McStagger
    replied
    Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
    North Dakota vs Minnesota in the first round...that would be something.
    If that happens, I'd only switch UND and SCSU; no need to change the other pairing. Michigan/ND is the only chance they have to sell tickets in Cincy.
    Why would you be switching SCSU and UND?

    Leave a comment:

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