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pairwise -- post jan 8th

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  • CommAvHusky
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Cornell too

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Tech is out?

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Yale has clinched thanks to Harvard...go figure.

    Notre Dame and Harvard still have not clinched.

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Yale still has not clinched a spot in the NCAA tournament.
    "Do you ever have deja vu?"

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Quinnipiac secures a top seed in the east. It will either be Worcester or Albany. If Providence wins Hockey East and Quinnipiac loses tomorrow, the Friars pass them and will be the 1-seed in Worcester. If not then Quinnipiac goes there. Boston College cannot pass Quinnipiac no matter what.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    Check this one out...a 3-way tie for last team in (at least to 4 decimals for RPI):
    http://goo.gl/bcQDvH
    How much would that suck to be the team left out in a virtual tie with 2 other teams?
    ran that scenario in my excel file and got RPI values as follows:
    Michigan Tech - 0.535734
    Minnesota-Duluth - 0.535725
    Cornell - 0.535719

    Do we really trust this method enough to rank MTU first by RPI in that scenario? Granted MTU has a better COp record against both UMD and Cornell but we're talking about 2 common opps with UMD (BSU/NMU) and 1 for Cornell (Yale).

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    In the tournament:
    Boston College
    Boston University
    Denver
    Massachusetts-Lowell
    Michigan
    North Dakota
    Providence
    Quinnipiac
    St Cloud

    Need AQ:
    Air Force
    Army
    Bowling Green
    Dartmouth
    Ferris State
    Minnesota
    Minnesota State
    Ohio State
    Penn State
    RIT
    Robert Morris
    St. Lawrence

    Alive, Still Playing
    Harvard
    Minnesota-Duluth
    Michigan Tech
    Northeastern

    Not playing, still alive:
    Cornell
    Notre Dame
    Yale

    The scenario that gets Boston College to #1 overall is still active. Keys today: Quinnipiac upset by Dartmouth, Minnesota upended by Ohio State.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Check this one out...a 3-way tie for last team in (at least to 4 decimals for RPI):
    http://goo.gl/bcQDvH
    How much would that suck to be the team left out in a virtual tie with 2 other teams?

    Leave a comment:


  • Khryx
    replied
    Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
    St Cloud to 5th
    Am still trying to get BC to #1. Have gotten them within .0003 RPI but have not gotten them over the hump yet.
    I stand corrected to my previous post. BC as the #1 overall: http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_56e8beb4c1696

    Leave a comment:


  • Khryx
    replied
    Originally posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post
    Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Army
    Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. RIT
    Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
    Big Ten Semifinal #1: Ohio State def. Minnesota
    Big Ten Semifinal #2: Michigan def. Penn State
    Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Ohio State
    Big Ten Play-in #1: Penn State def. Wisconsin
    Big Ten Play-in #2: Ohio State def. Michigan State
    ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth def. Quinnipiac
    ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. St. Lawrence
    ECAC Championship: Dartmouth def. Harvard
    Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Northeastern
    Hockey East Semifinal #2: Providence def. Mass.-Lowell
    Hockey East Championship: Providence def. Boston College
    NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Minnesota-Duluth
    NCHC Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State def. Denver
    NCHC Championship: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
    NCHC Consolation: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
    WCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan Tech def. Ferris State
    WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota State def. Bowling Green
    WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Minnesota State

    Because I hadn't seen it mentioned yet here, this scenario gets 5 ECAC teams in. Cornell last in at 15.
    Nice find. Here is the link for those interested.

    Correction: Jim Dahl said this is 1 in 1700 scenarios based on his simulations. I previously thought Jim missed it because his table says 0%, just a very small percent chance.

    On the flipside, here is an example (multiple exist) of only two ECAC teams making the tourney.
    Last edited by Khryx; 03-15-2016, 08:25 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Khryx
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    For those that would like another nice reference. This link shows the College Hockey News breakdown of odds making the tournament and odds at being a given overall seed. For example, this indicates based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations BC cannot achieve a overall #1 seed but has a 36% chance of getting a #1 seed. Or that Yale, ND, and Harvard are all virtual locks. Northeastern, Michigan Tech, and UMD are the teams on the bubble as far as having a chance to get an at large bid without winning their tourney.

    Leave a comment:


  • SCSU Euro
    replied
    Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
    St Cloud to 5th
    Am still trying to get BC to #1. Have gotten them within .0003 RPI but have not gotten them over the hump yet.
    Not shocked you found a way to get St. Cloud to fifth, but surprised you were able to with them winning the 3rd place game, even more so with them beating UND

    Leave a comment:


  • hockeyplayer1015
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Army
    Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. RIT
    Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
    Big Ten Semifinal #1: Ohio State def. Minnesota
    Big Ten Semifinal #2: Michigan def. Penn State
    Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Ohio State
    Big Ten Play-in #1: Penn State def. Wisconsin
    Big Ten Play-in #2: Ohio State def. Michigan State
    ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth def. Quinnipiac
    ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. St. Lawrence
    ECAC Championship: Dartmouth def. Harvard
    Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Northeastern
    Hockey East Semifinal #2: Providence def. Mass.-Lowell
    Hockey East Championship: Providence def. Boston College
    NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Minnesota-Duluth
    NCHC Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State def. Denver
    NCHC Championship: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
    NCHC Consolation: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
    WCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan Tech def. Ferris State
    WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota State def. Bowling Green
    WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Minnesota State

    Because I hadn't seen it mentioned yet here, this scenario gets 5 ECAC teams in. Cornell last in at 15.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shirtless Guy
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    I really want to spend some time developing a tool to rank every team based on importance to a given team. So for Team A rankings if Team 27 and Team 28 play, Team A would want Team 27 to win. To help in what you're doing ticapnews. Granted you also have to know the rankings for the other teams you're trying to flip comparisons for...and as you flip games, it changes the calc because so much is based on weighted games played throughout the calculation. I tried to do it for MTU this year, and came close but it still wasn't quite right, or method of proving it wasn't quite right.

    With the RPI 25/21/54 its very hard to predict what is important to a team other than that team winning its own games. Obviously conference opponents are very important, but most of the year, they play each other...

    Leave a comment:


  • ticapnews
    replied
    Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

    St Cloud to 5th
    Am still trying to get BC to #1. Have gotten them within .0003 RPI but have not gotten them over the hump yet.

    Leave a comment:

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