UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

[SJHovey]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

It'll be an interesting series from a special teams perspective. SCSU sucks on the penalty kill, but UNO sucks worse on the power play, so any man advantage situations for UNO will likely look like the intermission mites game. On the other hand SCSU is deadly on the power play, while UNO has been very good shorthanded, giving up only 7 or 8 power play goals all year, but scoring 5 shorthanded goals of their own.

[The Exiled One]

Not sure what to make of UNO this year either. Should make for an interesting series though. The one thing I really like about this SCSU team is their balance. We have the #3 offense in the nation but don't have a single player in the top 10 in scoring.

They have an NCAA leading 13 players averaging 0.5 PPG or more.

[Dirty Bottles]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

We find out whether we are "frauds" or not this weekend. There is enough to look at to be concerned.

UNO, despite being 11-2-1, has been outshot 466-392 so far this season. That gives UNO a Corsi number of 45.7%. Ugh.

Not sure what to make of UNO this year either. Should make for an interesting series though. The one thing I really like about this SCSU team is their balance. We have the #3 offense in the nation but don't have a single player in the top 10 in scoring.

[hockeykrazy]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

"We have a losing record when outshooting the opponent and are undefeated when being outshot. "

Is there any correlation on who scores first? Chris Dilks also said Omaha is the worst team to watch when they get ahead- boring trap.


Basically calling it unwatchable garbage...
http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/wcha...inger-randolph

It's safe to say it is a lot harder to play that style (stacking 4 at the blue line) on an Olympic sheet of ice, 15 feet wider.
Maybe Blais can recruit a few more 6'8" guys.

From what I remember Blais also has a set play he runs a couple times a game where a guy off the bench goes Cherry Picking/ Suck hole(deep behind the D) for a long stretch pass and a one on none( designed for an Ortega or Guentzel player with speed). We got burned by it against QU earlier this year. Coaches use it when they see the other team start taking chances and activating their D in the offense to try and tie it up.
So yeah, throw out Corsi and look at prime scoring chances. The Wild lived on it with Lemair.

[Red Cows]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

Except that UNO became only the 2nd team since the field went to 16 teams to ever even make the tourney with a Corsi number as low as UNO's was last season and is the only one to ever win a tourney game, much less, go to the Frozen Four.

Edit: I am trying to find Chris Dilks SBNation post where he discussed this and post the link here. It's been since the season started.

Here is the post by Chris Dilks I thought I was referring to:

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2015...-stat-outliers

Where he does address the incongruity of UNO's shot numbers.

Somebody else made the NCAA tourney contention about UNO in another post somewhere else I read. Wracking my brain to try and remember where. I reserve the right to be wrong about that one until I can substantiate what I think I remember reading. If anybody can refute this in the meantime, please do so.

[Red Cows]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

I hate stats that people make up in order to try to create trends. Corsi does nothing to reflect the quality of the shot attempt, only that it happened.

UNO had a Corsi of 48.4% last year which was 43rd in the country. They were out shot 2265-2121 for the season, yet somehow ended up in the Frozen Four.

I guess I just don't care about getting out shot as much as I care about getting outscored.

Except that UNO became only the 2nd team since the field went to 16 teams to ever even make the tourney with a Corsi number as low as UNO's was last season and is the only one to ever win a tourney game, much less, go to the Frozen Four.

Edit: I am trying to find Chris Dilks SBNation post where he discussed this and post the link here. It's been since the season started.

That said, I agree with you.

However, we clearly don't make sense "on paper". I readily acknowledge you don't play the game on paper, though. I said in another thread that UNO is almost like the Kansas City Royals of college hockey--they seem to win in an unconventional way.

By the way, so far the goaltending is even more phenomenal (as long as Weninger is in there, that is). It better be (as well as the penalty kill) when you are getting outshot like we are.

[SCSU Euro]

They were out shot 2265-2121 for the season, yet somehow ended up in the Frozen Four.

Half the field woulda made it id they had had your path.

[RL3AO]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

So I should get everyone to yell "SHOOT!" whenever SCSU has the puck?

[purpleinnebraska]

The CORSI can be used to show time of possession. But, like you said, what good is time of possession if all the shots come from the perimeter? I'd rather see a comparison of scoring chances for and scoring chances against, but that could be seen as a highly subjective stat and easily manipulated.

I think "who" can mean more than "how many" with shots. When UNO swept us in Kato, we outshot them by a pretty substantial margin, but not when the top lines were on the ice. Ortega got 9 shots in the Friday game alone. Some of the dumber analytics guys (Ryan Lambert, for instance) seem to believe a shot's a shot, but a Guentzel or Ortega shot has a much better chance of going in than some 4th liner's shot

[St. Clown]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

I hate stats that people make up in order to try to create trends. Corsi does nothing to reflect the quality of the shot attempt, only that it happened.

UNO had a Corsi of 48.4% last year which was 43rd in the country. They were out shot 2265-2121 for the season, yet somehow ended up in the Frozen Four.

I guess I just don't care about getting out shot as much as I care about getting outscored.

The CORSI can be used to show time of possession. But, like you said, what good is time of possession if all the shots come from the perimeter? I'd rather see a comparison of scoring chances for and scoring chances against, but that could be seen as a highly subjective stat and easily manipulated.

[SJHovey]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

I hate stats that people make up in order to try to create trends. Corsi does nothing to reflect the quality of the shot attempt, only that it happened.

UNO had a Corsi of 48.4% last year which was 43rd in the country. They were out shot 2265-2121 for the season, yet somehow (i.e., we got phenomenal goaltending) ended up in the Frozen Four.

I guess I just don't care about getting out shot as much as I care about getting outscored.

.

[5thYearFreshman]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

UNO, despite being 11-2-1, has been outshot 466-392 so far this season. That gives UNO a Corsi number of 45.7%. Ugh.

I hate stats that people make up in order to try to create trends. Corsi does nothing to reflect the quality of the shot attempt, only that it happened.

UNO had a Corsi of 48.4% last year which was 43rd in the country. They were out shot 2265-2121 for the season, yet somehow ended up in the Frozen Four.

I guess I just don't care about getting out shot as much as I care about getting outscored.

[St. Clown]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

I doubt they will. Motzko probably doesn't even know who this Ortego guy is.

Think mustaches and taco shells, sauces and seasonings.

[RL3AO]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

I'm looking forward to seeing Ortega in person from the student section.

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: UNO @ SCSU: Unleash the Murray! Dec 4 and 5

I know this much, though. SCSU would be well advised to pay particular attention to where and what Ortega and Guentzel are up to when they are on the ice.

I doubt they will. Motzko probably doesn't even know who this Ortego guy is.