St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

[LTsatch]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Greetings. Some of you know me from the SLU fan group on Facebook, but I just registered here after occasionally reading bits and pieces over the years. Bruce convinced me to finally take the plunge here.

Tim, certainly Hayton, Bayreuther, and Sullivan are stars, but setting aside the defense, if there's one thing we can say about the post-Carey offense, it's that nobody carries way more than their share of the load. And that's a great thing, because it makes a team more resilient in the face of injuries. The last three weeks are a case in point. Yes, Sullivan is tearing up the ice currently, but he (along with Smokes, Thompson, and Pritchard to a lesser extent) has stepped up to fill the void that Marnell has left during his recovery period. (In contrast, Bayreuther's point production since New Year's has been below his average.) Squeeze the balloon in one spot, and it bulges out in another spot. Since Greg Carey graduated, no one -- not Marnell, not Bayreuther, not Sullivan -- has been nearly as central to the offense as he and, to a lesser extent, Kyle Flanagan were.

As you might guess from the user name I chose here, I'm kind of obsessive about crunching numbers to see what's going on. So I did that to see how much more superstar-dependent we were during the Carey era than during the current "scoring by committee" era, as Carvy calls it, in which the points are spread all over the place. This is just a quick-and-dirty look -- it could definitely be done better -- but I computed the leading goal scorer's and leading point scorer's percentage of our total goals and points for each season. SLU's stats pages go back to the 08-09 season, two years before the Carey era, so that's as far as I went.

As expected, the leading scorer's percentages were higher, sometimes wildly higher, in every Carey year than in the two years before then or the two years since then. And also as expected, the leading scorers' percentages in the current "scoring by committee" era are the lowest of the last eight years. In other words, the load has been shared more broadly this season and last than at any time in the previous six years.

For each season in the table below, the first percentage is the leading goal scorer's percentage of the season's goals, and the second percentage is the leading point scorer's percentage of the season's points.

Season Goals Points
------ ----- ------
Pre-Carey
08-09**13%***10%
09-10**14%***12%

Carey
10-11**23%***15%
11-12**17%***15%
12-13**26%***17%
13-14**15%***16%

Post-Carey
14-15**11%***9%
15-16**12%***8%

Yale has had the same thing going on since the championship year, I would add team GPG average to that analysis to get a look at the big picture team wise. since Yale started scoring by committee, the GPG has dropped pretty dramatically, which is the teams bugaboo between wins and losses lately. Having average scoring depth has helped Yale during it's injury prone season, all you have to do is look at the RPI game this past weekend where 6 players for Yale were out injured and they still managed to win. Interesting how both teams have trended recently. Having great team defense and a great goalie also helps during these times. Sorry to butt in, welcome to the boards.

[LTsatch]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Season Goals Points GPG
------ ----- ------
Pre-Carey
08-09 13% 10% 3.26
09-10 14% 12% 2.81

Carey
10-11 23% 15% 2.52
11-12 17% 15% 2.44
12-13 26% 17% 2.82
13-14 15% 16% 3.21

Post-Carey
14-15 11% 9% 3.05
15-16 12% 8% 2.85

[TimU]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Greetings. Some of you know me from the SLU fan group on Facebook, but I just registered here after occasionally reading bits and pieces over the years. Bruce convinced me to finally take the plunge here.

Tim, certainly Hayton, Bayreuther, and Sullivan are stars, but setting aside the defense, if there's one thing we can say about the post-Carey offense, it's that nobody carries way more than their share of the load. And that's a great thing, because it makes a team more resilient in the face of injuries. The last three weeks are a case in point. Yes, Sullivan is tearing up the ice currently, but he (along with Smokes, Thompson, and Pritchard to a lesser extent) has stepped up to fill the void that Marnell has left during his recovery period. (In contrast, Bayreuther's point production since New Year's has been below his average.) Squeeze the balloon in one spot, and it bulges out in another spot. Since Greg Carey graduated, no one -- not Marnell, not Bayreuther, not Sullivan -- has been nearly as central to the offense as he and, to a lesser extent, Kyle Flanagan were.

As you might guess from the user name I chose here, I'm kind of obsessive about crunching numbers to see what's going on. So I did that to see how much more superstar-dependent we were during the Carey era than during the current "scoring by committee" era, as Carvy calls it, in which the points are spread all over the place. This is just a quick-and-dirty look -- it could definitely be done better -- but I computed the leading goal scorer's and leading point scorer's percentage of our total goals and points for each season. SLU's stats pages go back to the 08-09 season, two years before the Carey era, so that's as far as I went.

As expected, the leading scorer's percentages were higher, sometimes wildly higher, in every Carey year than in the two years before then or the two years since then. And also as expected, the leading scorers' percentages in the current "scoring by committee" era are the lowest of the last eight years. In other words, the load has been shared more broadly this season and last than at any time in the previous six years.

For each season in the table below, the first percentage is the leading goal scorer's percentage of the season's goals, and the second percentage is the leading point scorer's percentage of the season's points.

Season Goals Points
------ ----- ------
Pre-Carey
08-09**13%***10%
09-10**14%***12%

Carey
10-11**23%***15%
11-12**17%***15%
12-13**26%***17%
13-14**15%***16%

Post-Carey
14-15**11%***9%
15-16**12%***8%

Thanks for that - very cool. I know that over the past two years the scoring has been spread around a lot. Last year was historic in terms of spreading the load, and overall this year looks the same. I think Sullivan just took the lead in points and his total is not that high . . . which is not a bad thing at all when so many guys chip in. However, my comment was really looking at more of a snapshot in time - just since the losing streak ended - than over the course of the season. It still feels to me that over the past several games Bayreuther and Sullivan are doing more than anyone else offensively. And not necessarily just on the scoresheet either. In watching the play, it feels like those two are the engine of the offense right now. Sullivan seems like the guy who brings the most consistent energy to every shift, and when the forecheck is going well it seems to me like other guys are feeding off him. And on the back end, so many of the good looks the team gets, and so many of the quality shots from the point, happen because of Bayreuther's skill and vision . . . even if he's not always the guy who scores.

I could be wrong, and if so I'm sure you'll have a good sense of it. Again, thanks for sharing these stats!

[SluStatsMan]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Yale has had the same thing going on since the championship year, I would add team GPG average to that analysis to get a look at the big picture team wise. since Yale started scoring by committee, the GPG has dropped pretty dramatically, which is the teams bugaboo between wins and losses lately. Having average scoring depth has helped Yale during it's injury prone season, all you have to do is look at the RPI game this past weekend where 6 players for Yale were out injured and they still managed to win. Interesting how both teams have trended recently. Having great team defense and a great goalie also helps during these times. Sorry to butt in, welcome to the boards.

Not a butt-in at all, as far as I'm concerned. Thanks -- those are really interesting numbers, and the opposite of what you described for Yale -- three of Carey's four years are in the bottom half for GPG, and both of the post-Carey years are in the top half. I wouldn't have expected that. For all the hand-wringing about no longer having a big scorer, the team as a whole has kept the offense humming for the last season and a half, over long time windows, anyway. And yeah, the great defensive side is a huge help -- neither team has a high-octane offense, but it's less necessary. And speaking of great defense, the ECAC's goaltending is just insane this year -- those guys are swarming the top of the national stats.

[SluStatsMan]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Thanks for that - very cool. I know that over the past two years the scoring has been spread around a lot. Last year was historic in terms of spreading the load, and overall this year looks the same. I think Sullivan just took the lead in points and his total is not that high . . . which is not a bad thing at all when so many guys chip in. However, my comment was really looking at more of a snapshot in time - just since the losing streak ended - than over the course of the season. It still feels to me that over the past several games Bayreuther and Sullivan are doing more than anyone else offensively. And not necessarily just on the scoresheet either. In watching the play, it feels like those two are the engine of the offense right now. Sullivan seems like the guy who brings the most consistent energy to every shift, and when the forecheck is going well it seems to me like other guys are feeding off him. And on the back end, so many of the good looks the team gets, and so many of the quality shots from the point, happen because of Bayreuther's skill and vision . . . even if he's not always the guy who scores.

I could be wrong, and if so I'm sure you'll have a good sense of it. Again, thanks for sharing these stats!

Yeah, I think that's a fair assessment. My feeling is that the only really significant changes in the last six games are that Sullivan has gotten a hot hand and Pritchard has stepped up his playmaking. Other than that, I feel as though everyone has simply shaken off some kind of team gestalt that caused the slump and has gotten back to the way things were. I've felt for quite a while that Sullivan is one of the few best forwards because of that unrelenting intensity even though he wasn't a big scorer, and of course Gavin is Gavin -- he's been an offensive standout since he arrived.

[critsports]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Yeah, I think that's a fair assessment. My feeling is that the only really significant changes in the last six games are that Sullivan has gotten a hot hand and Pritchard has stepped up his playmaking. Other than that, I feel as though everyone has simply shaken off some kind of team gestalt that caused the slump and has gotten back to the way things were. I've felt for quite a while that Sullivan is one of the few best forwards because of that unrelenting intensity even though he wasn't a big scorer, and of course Gavin is Gavin -- he's been an offensive standout since he arrived.

I think the article on Joe Sullivan today and the quotes from coach Carvel really illustrate what a fine line it is between winning and losing. Kyle Hayton is also our wild card factor. We had a sweep.....but, in reality we didn't deserve a sweep. We were badly outplayed by Colgate. A team with a short bench that we should have been able to run into the ground and out of steam by the third period. Kyle stole that game for us.
The margin is thin...........we are only a contender/superior team when A) Kyle is on his game......and B) the team puts forth its high energy effort with speed, hustle and a big forecheck that creates turnovers. I said it before.....reflect back to earlier in the year when we were a man short. Our speed was so evident that we often as not has as good an offensive chance to score a man down as the other team did on the PP.
This weekend will be a good test to see if we can put A and B together on the same night (which we haven't often done the second half.) It is only when A and B happen together that we are any kind of a threat as a team. If only A happens we can still be "in" every game because of Kyle. But if B doesn't happen then it's a dice roll.

[Got 6, Want More]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

I think the article on Joe Sullivan today and the quotes from coach Carvel really illustrate what a fine line it is between winning and losing. Kyle Hayton is also our wild card factor. We had a sweep.....but, in reality we didn't deserve a sweep. We were badly outplayed by Colgate. A team with a short bench that we should have been able to run into the ground and out of steam by the third period. Kyle stole that game for us.
The margin is thin...........we are only a contender/superior team when A) Kyle is on his game......and B) the team puts forth its high energy effort with speed, hustle and a big forecheck that creates turnovers. I said it before.....reflect back to earlier in the year when we were a man short. Our speed was so evident that we often as not has as good an offensive chance to score a man down as the other team did on the PP.
This weekend will be a good test to see if we can put A and B together on the same night (which we haven't often done the second half.) It is only when A and B happen together that we are any kind of a threat as a team. If only A happens we can still be "in" every game because of Kyle. But if B doesn't happen then it's a dice roll.

My opinion is that we were badly outplayed in the 2nd against Colgate, but it was a fairly even game overall. My guess is if we looked at shot attempts, it would be much closer to even over that game and that is, in fact, one area where we need to improve...shot accuracy or getting shots on net. That's one part of our power play woes. We miss the net, a lot.

I do agree with the assessment above. Sullivan has been really good, especially lately. Pritchard has been stepping up and making nice plays. No goals but big apples. Both Masella and Purmal had good weekends last weekend, as did Hayton, of course. The good news is it worked for us both nights and if we have played a better period than the third against Cornell this year, I don't know when. This is the recipe we need. We need some more points from our forwards, better defense in our zone and a hot goalie which is what we saw this weekend. Cornell is a stingy defense but we got through it.

[SluStatsMan]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

The margin is thin...........we are only a contender/superior team when A) Kyle is on his game......and B) the team puts forth its high energy effort with speed, hustle and a big forecheck that creates turnovers. I said it before.....reflect back to earlier in the year when we were a man short. Our speed was so evident that we often as not has as good an offensive chance to score a man down as the other team did on the PP.
This weekend will be a good test to see if we can put A and B together on the same night (which we haven't often done the second half.) It is only when A and B happen together that we are any kind of a threat as a team. If only A happens we can still be "in" every game because of Kyle. But if B doesn't happen then it's a dice roll.

I've been thinking the same thing about our PK -- the hyper-aggressiveness seems to have disappeared, and I don't know why.

And yeah, the margins are extremely thin, all over college hockey. We disappeared for much of the third at Harvard, and they still barely beat us. We were streaky at Dartmouth, and they still barely beat us. A year ago at Dartmouth, we outplayed them and still barely beat them. We didn't play 60 minutes against Yale recently, and they still barely beat us. A year ago, we barely beat them in Canton. Yale was the last team to make it into the NCAA tournament when they won it. Providence was a #4 seed last year when they won it. There's just not much daylight between teams.

My opinion is that we were badly outplayed in the 2nd against Colgate, but it was a fairly even game overall. My guess is if we looked at shot attempts, it would be much closer to even over that game and that is, in fact, one area where we need to improve...shot accuracy or getting shots on net. That's one part of our power play woes. We miss the net, a lot.

The total shot attempts were closer than the shots, but not by a huge amount. They outshot us 47-26, i.e. by 81%, and they outdid us in total attempts 70-45, by 56%. But yeah, we missed at a much higher rate than they did -- 13 misses and 1 post out of 45 attempts, vs. 13 misses out of 70 attempts. I'm getting pretty tired of hearing Greg Lapinski say "and he missed the net".

[Saints#1]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

I've been thinking the same thing about our PK -- the hyper-aggressiveness seems to have disappeared, and I don't know why.

And yeah, the margins are extremely thin, all over college hockey. We disappeared for much of the third at Harvard, and they still barely beat us. We were streaky at Dartmouth, and they still barely beat us. A year ago at Dartmouth, we outplayed them and still barely beat them. We didn't play 60 minutes against Yale recently, and they still barely beat us. A year ago, we barely beat them in Canton. Yale was the last team to make it into the NCAA tournament when they won it. Providence was a #4 seed last year when they won it. There's just not much daylight between teams.



The total shot attempts were closer than the shots, but not by a huge amount. They outshot us 47-26, i.e. by 81%, and they outdid us in total attempts 70-45, by 56%. But yeah, we missed at a much higher rate than they did -- 13 misses and 1 post out of 45 attempts, vs. 13 misses out of 70 attempts. I'm getting pretty tired of hearing Greg Lapinski say "and he missed the net".

I have noticed this problem with getting the pucks on net all year. They have been struggling with shooting the puck, when to shoot the puck and actually doing it. I noticed right away the huge difference in the 3rd period of the Cornell game Saturday night where we seemed to have finally figured it out. Not only that, but we were throwing everything at their goalie. We were shooting from all angles and just making sure that if we had the puck we weren't necessarily just cycling the puck around and looking for the perfect shot, but we put everything on net. We all know the results from that period and how it catapulted them to the win, so it shows that style of hockey can work in certain situations. With a goalie like Cornell's it was what was needed to beat him. He would save just about everything he could see, so a fluky goal or a goal when he is screened in front is what was going to beat him .... and it did!

[SluStatsMan]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

I have noticed this problem with getting the pucks on net all year. They have been struggling with shooting the puck, when to shoot the puck and actually doing it. I noticed right away the huge difference in the 3rd period of the Cornell game Saturday night where we seemed to have finally figured it out. Not only that, but we were throwing everything at their goalie. We were shooting from all angles and just making sure that if we had the puck we weren't necessarily just cycling the puck around and looking for the perfect shot, but we put everything on net. We all know the results from that period and how it catapulted them to the win, so it shows that style of hockey can work in certain situations. With a goalie like Cornell's it was what was needed to beat him. He would save just about everything he could see, so a fluky goal or a goal when he is screened in front is what was going to beat him .... and it did!

And in this era of low scoring and great goalies, there are a lot of those "certain situations" in which you've got to throw everything (pucks and bodies) at the net and go for chaos, deflections, and bounces, because you're so unlikely to get a clean shot past the goalie. There's a reason that the four most common words in interviews are "pucks to the net". In the NCAA as a whole, on average you can expect to score 3 and maybe 2 goals a game most of the time. In the ECAC, which has a pile of great goalies and defenses, it's even tougher -- you can expect to score 2 and maybe 3 a game. The ECAC is the stingiest league with the best goalies and the best team defense. ECAC goalies currently hold 5 of the top 10 save percentages, and 7 of the top 20 -- Hockey East is the only other league that even has 4 goalies in the top 20. So there's no tougher offensive slog than in our league.

[joecct]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Good luck this weekend!

[vicb]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

And in this era of low scoring and great goalies, there are a lot of those "certain situations" in which you've got to throw everything (pucks and bodies) at the net and go for chaos, deflections, and bounces, because you're so unlikely to get a clean shot past the goalie. There's a reason that the four most common words in interviews are "pucks to the net". In the NCAA as a whole, on average you can expect to score 3 and maybe 2 goals a game most of the time. In the ECAC, which has a pile of great goalies and defenses, it's even tougher -- you can expect to score 2 and maybe 3 a game. The ECAC is the stingiest league with the best goalies and the best team defense. ECAC goalies currently hold 5 of the top 10 save percentages, and 7 of the top 20 -- Hockey East is the only other league that even has 4 goalies in the top 20. So there's no tougher offensive slog than in our league.

I'm just curious on what you think: Is the ECAC the stingiest league due to the best goalies and team defense or due to lack of scoring capabilities by the forwards making the goalie stats lower than if say the goalies and team defense were in HE or the NCHC facing their forwards? I'm too lazy to try to compare goals against average and save percentage of ECAC teams when they play non league games against HE, NCHC or B1G teams vs those against ECAC teams.

And I also say good luck this weekend hoping for a North Country sweep of the Capital District.

[vicb]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Not sure what this tells you. I will leave it for the statistics guys to tell me if anything is statistically significant or not. I took the data from the ECAC web site comparing the Overall vs ECAC Goals Against Average and Saves %. One team stat that does stick out like a sore thumb is Colgate. Their overall GAA jumps by half a goal when the non-League part of the schedule is added to the ECAC GAA (they did give up 9 to Mercyhurst and 7 to both Providence and Northeastern) . At the opposite end Unions GAA drops by .39 .

	Overall	League		Overall	League	

TEAM	GAA	GAA	Diff	SV%	SV%	Diff

Brown	3.41	3.22	0.19	0.885	0.890	-0.005

Clark	2.32	2.09	0.23	0.906	0.912	-0.006

Colgate	3.27	2.77	0.50	0.895	0.909	-0.014

Cornell	2.10	2.03	0.07	0.923	0.924	-0.001

Dart	2.75	2.86	-0.11	0.903	0.901	0.002

Harvard	2.26	2.10	0.16	0.922	0.924	-0.002

Prin	2.78	2.89	-0.11	0.925	0.919	0.006

Quinn	1.66	1.68	-0.02	0.931	0.930	0.001

RPI	2.17	1.92	0.25	0.934	0.943	-0.009

St. Law	2.13	2.06	0.07	0.933	0.934	-0.001

Union	2.75	3.14	-0.39	0.911	0.909	0.002

Yale	1.63	1.67	-0.04	0.938	0.939	-0.001

[SluStatsMan]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

I'm just curious on what you think: Is the ECAC the stingiest league due to the best goalies and team defense or due to lack of scoring capabilities by the forwards making the goalie stats lower than if say the goalies and team defense were in HE or the NCHC facing their forwards? I'm too lazy to try to compare goals against average and save percentage of ECAC teams when they play non league games against HE, NCHC or B1G teams vs those against ECAC teams.

And I also say good luck this weekend hoping for a North Country sweep of the Capital District.

The same question occurred to me, and I figured someone would ask it!

Thanks for computing each team's ECAC-vs-overall differences in GAA and save percentage. From those, I computed the median difference for each. The median increase in GAA from ECAC to overall is 0.07, and the median decrease in save percentage from ECAC to overall is 0.001. If we assume that ECAC and non-conference games contribute equally to the overall numbers, then the differences from ECAC to non-conference would be double those -- an increase of 0.14 in GAA and a decrease of 0.002 in save percentage. But ECAC and non-conference games don't contribute equally to the overall numbers -- teams have played a median of about 5 more league games than non-con games. Doing just a rough computation to correct for that, I estimate that the real differences from ECAC to non-con are a GAA increase of about 0.20 and a save percentage decrease of about 0.003.

So, how significant are a GAA increase of 0.20 and a save percentage decrease of 0.003? I would say that the GAA increase is pretty insignificant and the save percentage decrease is extremely insignificant. The save percentage decrease translates to non-conference opponents scoring an additional goal once in every 333 shots versus what ECAC opponents would score. That's just background noise. The GAA increase translates to non-conference opponents scoring an additional goal once every five games versus what ECAC opponents would score -- not much.

Before I saw your post of the numbers for all teams in the league, I did a different analysis. I looked at those 7 ECAC goalies who I mentioned are in the top 20 in save percentage. After all the jawboning above, I won't torture you with the details, but it looked pretty clearly to me like a wash between ECAC games and non-con games. Hayton, Garteig, Gillam, and Phinney have slightly better non-con numbers, Kasdorf and Madsen have worse non-con numbers, and Lyon is pretty much exactly the same.

The non-con numbers aren't going to be as reliable as the numbers for ECAC games -- the mix of opponents isn't going to be as complete, there are fewer non-con games, there are often some bench-warmers substituting for regular players, and some non-con games are actually between ECAC opponents, so they're counted in the wrong set of numbers. But, setting aside those caveats, my opinion is that there's not enough difference in the numbers to indicate that our league's great stats are due to weaker offenses rather than stronger goalies/defenses.

[vicb]

Re: St. Lawrence University Skating Saints - 2015-2016

Thanks for the analysis. It is about what I concluded.