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UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

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  • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

    Originally posted by Dr. Sauce View Post
    So I have a decent sense for what Omaha has to do, statistically, to be in good shape to make the NCAA's. I know what the projected likelihood of the remaining scenarios are to get them in (given their current outlook the odds seem slightly in their favor). However, I'm curious what the perception outside of the Omaha fanbase is of their chances to make the field of 16. So for those who care to respond, I want to take a straw poll of the Mavs' outlook the rest of the way. Share as much or as little about your prediction as you'd like. (in/out or they'll split/sweep/get sweep in each of known remaining series etc.) Thanks to all who weigh in.
    I'm thinking you split with UND. If UMD can play them tough in Grand Forks, I think you can do the same at home. You have more offense and that should get you a win. Also think you can split with Denver. To ensure staying in the top 13 to protect yourself from getting your spot taken by an AQ outside of at-large qualifying, you're going to need to win your first round NCHC playoff series. My thought is you'll be on the road against Miami. Winnable but tough. Past history hasn't been super positive for you in the conference playoffs.

    I'm thinking it's quite possible you'll see three AQs outside of at-large qualifying (AHA, Big 10 and WCHA) and I wouldn't rule it out in the NCHC either.

    Tough road ahead.

    Comment


    • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

      Originally posted by SCSU Euro View Post
      I predict Red Cows will hunt you down and shank you for calling them "Omaha."
      Red Cows has vanished into thin air.
      That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

      Comment


      • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

        Originally posted by Dr. Sauce View Post
        So I have a decent sense for what Omaha has to do, statistically, to be in good shape to make the NCAA's. I know what the projected likelihood of the remaining scenarios are to get them in (given their current outlook the odds seem slightly in their favor). However, I'm curious what the perception outside of the Omaha fanbase is of their chances to make the field of 16. So for those who care to respond, I want to take a straw poll of the Mavs' outlook the rest of the way. Share as much or as little about your prediction as you'd like. (in/out or they'll split/sweep/get sweep in each of known remaining series etc.) Thanks to all who weigh in.
        Seems pretty clear what Omaha is going to have to do. If they take 3 of 4 from UND and Denver, then I think they can lose their first round playoff series 2-1 and still get in. But it would be a sweat.

        Any less than 3 wins against DU and UND and Omaha will have to win that first round series, and probably have to win at least one game in Minneapolis. Not sure that going 2-2 against DU and UND, sweeping a first round series then losing both in Minneapolis would keep them in position for an at-large bid.

        As for what will happen, pretty hard to say. UND isn't exactly clicking along right now, but they have a good team and that series has historically been a split. Denver is red hot. UNO will probably be on the road for the first round, so that will be tough. Goes to show the importance of the regular season. It's not all about the non-conference schedule. You need to be in a position of playing at home in the playoffs if you can, so that you can keep the season alive in case you need to rack up one or two more wins.

        My feeling is right now Omaha is probably 60/40 to make the NCAA's.
        That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

        Comment


        • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

          I don't know Hovey. I went to CHN and put in a UND sweep and a Denver split for UNO and what I thought were likely results for the teams around that 13th spot in the pairwise and UNO comfortably stayed at 13. Obviously that isn't including 2 more losses, but if you change that to a split against North Dakota and they can probably lose in the first round and still get in, especially if it is a 3 game series.
          Originally posted by SJHovey
          Pretty sure this post, made on January 3, 2016, when UNO was 14-3-1 and #2 in the pairwise, will go down in USCHO lore as The Curse of Tipsy McStagger.
          Originally posted by Brenthoven
          We mourn for days after a loss, puff out our chests for a week or more after we win. We brave the cold for tailgates, our friends know not to ask about the game after a tough loss, we laugh, we cry, we BLEED hockey, specifically the maroon'n'gold. Many of us have a tattoo waiting in the wings, WHEN (not IF) the Gophers are champions again.

          Comment


          • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

            Originally posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
            I don't know Hovey. I went to CHN and put in a UND sweep and a Denver split for UNO and what I thought were likely results for the teams around that 13th spot in the pairwise and UNO comfortably stayed at 13. Obviously that isn't including 2 more losses, but if you change that to a split against North Dakota and they can probably lose in the first round and still get in, especially if it is a 3 game series.
            I think the problem is the first round series. If they split against DU and UND, I suspect they'd sit around 12-13, depending upon outcomes, and safely inside the bubble. But if they lose 2 of 3 against a poor pwr team (a team below them), and their first round match-up is going to be against a poor pwr team, I think that drops them into that 14-15 range, and probably out.
            That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

            Comment


            • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?
              1. Sweep the siouxhawks
              2. Be swept by DU
              3. Don't come to Denver in the 1st round
              4. NCHC Ninneapolis--OK, but DU wins
              5. Make the NCAAs


              My wish list for UNO and DU.
              Brackets will determine wish list for NCAAs.
              GO DU !!!

              Comment


              • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                I think the problem is the first round series. If they split against DU and UND, I suspect they'd sit around 12-13, depending upon outcomes, and safely inside the bubble. But if they lose 2 of 3 against a poor pwr team (a team below them), and their first round match-up is going to be against a poor pwr team, I think that drops them into that 14-15 range, and probably out.
                Right, but you were saying if they split the next two series they need to win their first round series.

                http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php
                UNO split vs UND
                UNO split at Denver
                Harvard win vs Clarkson
                Harvard loss at SLU
                Lowell loss at BC
                Lowell win vs BC
                Cornell win vs Union
                Cornell tie vs RPI
                Minnesota split vs Michigan
                Minnesota sweep at MSU
                Minnesota sweep vs Wisconsin

                Rk Team PCWs RPI Rk QWB-† W-L-T Win % Wgtd Win % - ‡
                11 Nebraska-Omaha 49 .5562* 11 .0040 18-11-1 .6167 .6107
                12 Harvard 48 .5547 12 .0040 15-8-4 .6296 .6277
                13 Mass.-Lowell 47 .5481* 13 .0031 20-7-5 .7031 .6981
                14 Cornell 45 .5387 15 .0046 13-8-6 .5926 .5933
                15 Penn State 44 .5342 16 .0020 19-9-4 .6562 .6346
                16 Minnesota 43 .5468 14 .0038 21-14-0 .6000 .5843

                Even with two more losses, I don't think they fall past 13th judging by how big the difference between 13th and 14th is. So if they can split the next two series, I would say they are probably in regardless of what they do in the first round of the NCHC playoffs. And in all likelihood, Michigan, PSU or Minnesota will win the Little Six tournament, which would be one less team UNO would be competing with for an at-large bid.

                Look at Minnesota. Even by winning 5 of their next 6, they actually fall in the pairwise. Yikes.
                Originally posted by SJHovey
                Pretty sure this post, made on January 3, 2016, when UNO was 14-3-1 and #2 in the pairwise, will go down in USCHO lore as The Curse of Tipsy McStagger.
                Originally posted by Brenthoven
                We mourn for days after a loss, puff out our chests for a week or more after we win. We brave the cold for tailgates, our friends know not to ask about the game after a tough loss, we laugh, we cry, we BLEED hockey, specifically the maroon'n'gold. Many of us have a tattoo waiting in the wings, WHEN (not IF) the Gophers are champions again.

                Comment


                • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                  I think if they split vs. DU and UND they need to win that first round series. I'm not saying it's impossible to get in if they lose in the first round, but I think sitting in that 11-3 range, then dropping 2 of 3 to the likes of Miami or UMD is going to put them in a very precarious position. But you'll note I gave them a 60/40 chance of making the tournament.

                  Edit: The other reason for my thinking is I almost always fall back on that 22-23 win benchmark for teams that are members of one of the major conferences. There are always the odd cases, but if you can hit 22-23 wins, your chances of getting in are pretty good, historically.
                  That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

                  Comment


                  • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                    I think UNO will need to win it all in Minneapolis to get in as I can see them easily dropping all of (or 3 of) their next 4. UNO under Dean has never advanced in the conference tourney. Such promise for this season is circling the toilet right now.

                    UNO has shown this season that they can play with anyone. They have sucked since they had to switch to the road sweaters at Baxter.

                    I know the whole "Chip and a chair" thing, but I'm not sure I'd even want to see this team get dismantled in the tourney. It would remind me of the NE Regional in 06
                    UNO Maverick fan and Gopher hater, stuck in Husky country...

                    Comment


                    • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                      Good discussion...I have to believe we need to split the next two AND win the opening round of the playoffs (probably on the road and something we haven't done in awhile). We certainly are not doing ourselves any favors and this downhill slide is not the way to end the season.

                      Luckily none of this will matter..make the tournament or not...since we are on par with North Dakota's program, we will get some serious recruits and the future looks extremely bright. And just remember UND...get bounced in the first round of the NCAAs and we basically are better than you. Since we have been to the Frozen Four more recently. (Sorry...he might have disappeared, but not letting that one go - can't get away with saying insane things here). Even if you sweep us this week it doesn't matter...our program would still be considered on par. Because we would have made it to the Frozen Four more recently than you.
                      Last edited by gomavs#1; 02-25-2016, 10:22 AM.
                      If we could extend Blais' contract, that'd be greeeaaatttt

                      Comment


                      • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                        [QUOTE=gomavs#1;6281102 since we are on par with North Dakota's program, Because we would have made it to the Frozen Four more recently than you.[/QUOTE]

                        HELLO! UND was at the Frozen Four last year also, remember?

                        Comment


                        • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                          Originally posted by 4evrsioux View Post
                          HELLO! UND was at the Frozen Four last year also, remember?
                          Ha!!! You see the absurdity of it all, correct? Good luck to UND this weekend. Looking forward to the crowd. Should be a rocking house. Hopefully the games are close.
                          If we could extend Blais' contract, that'd be greeeaaatttt

                          Comment


                          • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                            Originally posted by 4evrsioux View Post
                            HELLO! UND was at the Frozen Four last year also, remember?
                            Thank you, Ted.
                            tUMD is Jan Brady per Brenthoven. Whew.... thanks for clearing THAT up.

                            Best USCHO quotes to date:

                            "UND/DU will realize that their party sucks, because the easterners only want to drink Zima." - BPH

                            "It is too bad that aaron marvin was a senior so he can't go after the rest of the sioux". - bigblue_dl

                            "I would rather play the blackhawks than you right now." - dogs2012

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                            • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                              Originally posted by gomavs#1 View Post
                              Ha!!! You see the absurdity of it all, correct? Good luck to UND this weekend. Looking forward to the crowd. Should be a rocking house. Hopefully the games are close.
                              I knew what you did. Gave me a good chuckle. That poster needs a little more time to get used to you.
                              "My greatest achievement."
                              Dirty on getting me suspended from USCHO.

                              I'm not an alcoholic! I'm an independent beer taster for Anheuser Busch.

                              Happy~Smelling like a warm turd sandwich since 11/15/07.

                              Comment


                              • Re: UNO 2015-16 Season Thread: Frozen Four, New Barn, What Next?

                                Do the UNO play by play cover golf or football first and cover the hockey games as a novelty? They suck.

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