Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

[JF_Gophers]

What seems to happen is both MN and Qp drops a COp because of the losses. Harvard gains a COp and that scenario drops us from PWR 13th to PWR 14th and with 3 AQs (B1G winner, ECAC winner, and AHA winner) that leaves us on the other side of the bubble. All that matters is Qp must win tomorrow.

All that matters is the Gophers win 2 games this weekend. Relying on others is a non-issue then.

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

All that matters is the Gophers win 2 games this weekend. Relying on others is a non-issue then.

Yep...but I'm taking one game at a time.

[SJHovey]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Interesting find by Dahl on the effect of the Michigan-Wisconsin outcome. http://collegehockeyranked.com

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

What seems to happen is both MN and Qp drops a COp because of the losses. Harvard gains a COp and that scenario drops us from PWR 13th to PWR 14th and with 3 AQs (B1G winner, ECAC winner, and AHA winner) that leaves us on the other side of the bubble. All that matters is Qp must win tomorrow.

I have Harvard COp at 3-1 vs. Gophers at 2-0. A Harvard win doesn't change that as we haven't played either of the teams and a Harvard win doesn't change anyone elses COp either. And even if it did, the RPI trumps COp and so RPI is what matters. Harvard is behind us by .0034 and Qq is ahead by .0024 so we're closer to passing Qp than letting Harvard catch us.

Don't doubt you...just trying to track with this.

Edit: Interesting point by Dahl - The possibilities of other teams advancing in certain scenarios will shift a few percentage points here and there, with the only significant shift being Minnesota’s chance of advancing with 1 win going from 35% as of now to 50-55% if Michigan wins or 16-18% if Wisconsin wins.

Last week Michigan was evil...this week they are glorious. Go Michigan!

[vizoroo]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Bucky Takes out Goldy and has longest winning streak of season!

[gopher wes]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Yep...but I'm taking one game at a time.

And running other scenarios at the same time....LOL!

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

I have Harvard COp at 3-1 vs. Gophers at 2-0. A Harvard win doesn't change that as we haven't played either of the teams and a Harvard win doesn't change anyone elses COp either. And even if it did, the RPI trumps COp and so RPI is what matters. Harvard is behind us by .0034 and Qq is ahead by .0024 so we're closer to passing Qp than letting Harvard catch us.

You have to take into consideration the COps generated through any number of NCAA tournament scenarios throughout the weekend, but keep in mind that's only one criteria that populates the pairwise equation. There are several scenarios in the ECAC and it doesn't even matter if Colgate or Harvard win the ECAC for the outcome to affect the Gophers. If Harvard does win the ECAC, they can gain as many as 7 PWC Ws in one particular scenario and land on 8th in the PWR.

Keep in mind, Harvard will also win a H2H if they beat Qp. For the adjusted RPI you have to distribute the QWB amount earned evenly over games, as well as computing all the rest of the latent factorials to recalculate the adj. RPI (the weighted OppOpp W% is a key factor). The dependent variable is PWCWs (pairwise comparison wins) that determines the PWR point totals for the respective rankings.

It looks like in several scenarios that if Qp and the Gophers lose their semi, Qp still makes the NCAAs, but the Gopher's season ends.

And running other scenarios at the same time....LOL!

Wes, the funny thing about the AQs is both LT games statistically correlate, so there's two levels to consider (i.e. Quinnipiac). For example, if you determine significant outcomes for the semi, there's potentially a second level that involves the same team. And yes I'm taking one game at a time and potential scenarios regarding Friday's games are all I've mentioned here in my posts for now. But as I stated there's a second tier of interactions effects in the championship games that are also significant for the Gophers that correlate with the semifinal results. Remember if a top 16 team loses a semi or championship game, that may propel an unranked team into the field with an AQ and with the Gophers current PWR ranking that's very ominous.

EDIT:

Looks like the Quinnipiac Bobcats will be without the services of Sam Anas and are headed to Lake Placid to take on Harvard without their leading scorer.

OSU eliminated us last year...vengeance time for the Gophers!!

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

OSU eliminated us last year...vengeance time for the Gophers!!

Bottom line: If the Gophers want to control their own destiny, it's come down to one game. Right now, this is all they need to care about!

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Bottom line: If the Gophers want to control their own destiny, it's come down to one game. Right now, this is all they need to care about!

Agreed. OSU is another B1G shot blocking team with guys that can score (Fritz, Greco, Johnson and Schilkey). They started their own version of a resurgence immediately after being swept by the Gophers 11 games ago. They got some key injured guys back and finished the regular season against B1G opponents @ 6-3-1 (3.2 Gs/game) vs the Gophers 7-3-0 (3.7 Gs/game). Gophers need to keep their eyes on the prize.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

B1G needs to find a way to improve. How pathetic it is has struck me in two ways;
1. I buy into the idea that a season title is tougher to win than a playoff of 2 -3 games, so I am usually pumped when they have won. This year it felt less satisfying, like instead of cranking out more wins than the opponents, they were just less hapless and manged to avoid more losses.
2. 21 wins puts UM at 14th in Power, but SCSU, with only 1 win over .500 is at 10th.

[Handyman]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Its not rocket science, we stunk in OOC games. Flip a few of those for a couple of the teams and things change.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Come on guys. Big game. One or done.

[William Blake]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

How much does the Q loss still hurt the Gophers' chances with the win over OSU? And now UND choking against St. Cloud.

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

How much does the Q loss still hurt the Gophers' chances with the win over OSU?

Clutch win by the Gophers tonight to enact vengeance on OSU for eliminating us last season. Regarding the PWR, Qp's loss was going to be the dagger as the Gophers would drop from 13th to 14th with a L and out of the NCAA picture. But Adam Wilcox made some of his absolute best saves of his career to seal this game. With some games still yet to be played, how the results of the PWR will affect the Gophers is yet to be determined. But without a doubt we are not out of the PWR woods yet. Not trying to be negative here fellow Gopher fans, just trying to point out the PWR options.

One thing is certain in regards to our chances for an at large bid, if Sparty wins tonight over Michigan, the potential for the Gophers to miss the NCAAs with a loss tomorrow night against MSU increases dramatically. So...we want Michigan to win over MSU tonight. Another team that can dramatically affect the Gophers chances for an ALB is SCSU. They defeated UND tonight. If they win their LT, a couple other tourney scenarios play out, and the Gophers lose to MSU, end of season. If Michigan defeats MSU and the Gophers lose to Michigan in the championship game, we are still a lock for the NCAA tournament.

Nice W tonight for the Gophers as the Buckeyes left everything on the ice. IIRC the Gophers have not been outshot in the 3rd by a 22-8 margin all season. In arguably one of his best performances of the season, Adam Wilcox literally snatched that game out of the fire in the 3rd. The shutout put him tied with Kellen Briggs for the most shutouts all time (13). Win...win...win!! Go Gophers!

EDIT:

With all games in and a Mich. win over MSU, we are not a lock for the NCAAs just yet. There is one scenario if we lose to Mich. that ends the Gophers season - if the following teams win their respective conferences: Mercyhurst, Colgate, Mass-Lowell and Miami.

Sad season ending loss for Robert Morris and a hard pill to swallow for RM fans. Here's a team that battled all season, won their conference, and recorded a 24-8-5 season record. But they lose in OT to Mercyhurst and their season is now over. The lack of validity in the NCAA scheduling structure is reflected in a far too small 16 team tournament field in the pairwise.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gopher Season Thread: 2014-15 (Continued)

Good to see the win and to see Wilcox in form, but I was expecting a better effort. Maybe it was nerves, but they didn't seem to be using their speed on the forecheck. Better pick up the pace for the next game.