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Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings
Yes, this is a pretty standard Poisson model. The one issue I've had with it in the past (and some might find this a feature, not a bug) is that there is partial carryover of strength from prior seasons (or at least there used to be... I haven't really studied his code this year). It is predictive in the sense that it generates an offensive and defensive strength for each team. It is not predictive in the sense that it doesn't look at what games remain to be played for any team and project any sort of W-L-T record from that. For a quick survey of how these models work, anyone can look at the documentation for the model I wrote in 2011... https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5755704/ranking.doc
It discusses how these models differ from KRACH and the Pairwise and how to use one predictively...
Yes, this is a pretty standard Poisson model. The one issue I've had with it in the past (and some might find this a feature, not a bug) is that there is partial carryover of strength from prior seasons (or at least there used to be... I haven't really studied his code this year). It is predictive in the sense that it generates an offensive and defensive strength for each team. It is not predictive in the sense that it doesn't look at what games remain to be played for any team and project any sort of W-L-T record from that. For a quick survey of how these models work, anyone can look at the documentation for the model I wrote in 2011... https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/5755704/ranking.doc
It discusses how these models differ from KRACH and the Pairwise and how to use one predictively...
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