Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

I wrote about Wisconsin's 0-8 start, in case anyone is looking for reading material today.

LINK

Kudos on the work and the article, Andy.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

From Chucks article:

If you're creating 25 shot attempts by carrying the puck in the zone 31 times, and creating three attempts by dumping the puck in the zone 33 times, what does that say to you? Stop dumping the puck in the zone, right? Seems obvious.

I had a question about Chuck's stats, but I answered it myself, which led me to thinking about it a bit more and instead I thought I might present an alternative conclusion here.

The Badgers shot 25 times on their 48% zone entry vs UND's 56%... It seems to me that achieving 58% zone entry against a very good team is perhaps a reasonable expectation. It's starts getting very difficult quickly to raise that percentage as good teams are still going to force dumps at reasonably high rates. But let's say the Badgers increase entries by 10% though. That equates to about 37 entries and at that high shot rate, 4 or 5 more SOG in that game.

On the other hand, good teams get one third to one half as many shots on dump-ins as they do on carry ins, which in this instance should be 8-12 shots. The Badgers had 3. In other words, the Badgers obviously did not retrieve the puck. Had they done a reasonable job, they would have produced 5-9 more SOG.

Since a certain number of dumps are going to occur in every game anyway, it seems to me that there is more hay to be made for this team at the moment by working harder on their forecheck, winning more battles and retrieving the puck more efficiently.

Having said that, both are important, and both need improvement, just positing it's not all one or other.

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

From Chucks article:

I had a question about Chuck's stats, but I answered it myself, which led me to thinking about it a bit more and instead I thought I might present an alternative conclusion here.

The Badgers shot 25 times on their 48% zone entry vs UND's 56%... It seems to me that achieving 58% zone entry against a very good team is perhaps a reasonable expectation. It's starts getting very difficult quickly to raise that percentage as good teams are still going to force dumps at reasonably high rates. But let's say the Badgers increase entries by 10% though. That equates to about 37 entries and at that high shot rate, 4 or 5 more SOG in that game.

On the other hand, good teams get one third to one half as many shots on dump-ins as they do on carry ins, which in this instance should be 8-12 shots. The Badgers had 3. In other words, the Badgers obviously did not retrieve the puck. Had they done a reasonable job, they would have produced 5-9 more SOG.

Since a certain number of dumps are going to occur in every game anyway, it seems to me that there is more hay to be made for this team at the moment by working harder on their forecheck, winning more battles and retrieving the puck more efficiently.

Having said that, both are important, and both need improvement, just positing it's not all one or other.

It's a fair point for sure. I wish I would have talked about that. There's no question Wisconsin has done a horrible job of puck retrieval this season. I've been telling that to anyone who was willing to listen all season. It was especially bad in the series vs. North Dakota because they have a strong defensive core that moves the puck very well. There were dozens of Wisconsin dumps that were picked up by the UND defenders, one pass was made and they were out of the zone.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

It's a fair point for sure. I wish I would have talked about that. There's no question Wisconsin has done a horrible job of puck retrieval this season. I've been telling that to anyone who was willing to listen all season. It was especially bad in the series vs. North Dakota because they have a strong defensive core that moves the puck very well. There were dozens of Wisconsin dumps that were picked up by the UND defenders, one pass was made and they were out of the zone.

There are lots of ways to interpret all the info you produced for that game... One thing's for sure, we wouldn't even be thinking about it without the work you put into that article. Again, great job. If anybody else wants to spend time breaking down every game this year just like that for free... Well, not sure that's even a sentence worth completing.

Two things you touched on that I found fascinating:

Pretty interesting that the line of Hughes, Besse, and Zullinick are one the ice for such low carry in #'s... Rockwood, Soleway, and Labate's numbers there are at least halfway respectable as a group. I should be surprised, but now that I see the numbers, I think back and go "Yeah... That's actually a thing I've seen without really recognizing it!"

The other anomaly that stands out is Davison's 6 neutral zone breakups, but 1-5 dumps-to-carry-in's allowed. It appears he's being aggressive but I have a hard time deciding if it points to a good thing, or not?



Back on the Game front, per Bagott, Dougherty's back in... But now Rockwood is out with the flu... Ugh!

[WiscDC]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

It was sounding quieter during intros than the UAH game 2 years ago, and I wondered why. Then I noticed almost the entire west 100 side was sitting.

[UWisco]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

That shootout win may actually be huge for this team.

[WiscDC]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

That was...solid. Despite not scoring a goal, that first-period power play looked okay, I think even for the 5-on-4 portions.

There was an interesting stretch in the first in which Ferris State maintained possession in UW's end for quite a while, but it all took place in the corners and below the goal line, with a Badger blanketing the Bulldog. It was oddly not nerve-racking (or even really a threat), despite the time spent in UW's zone.

[Buck 'em]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Extremely uneven play last night, except for Rumpel who we expect to be solid. The last half of the third was hard to watch. Way too many unforced turnovers - easy passes right to the other team. It's not for lack of effort, just seems to be mental more than anything else. Hopefully they look better tonight.

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

That shootout win may actually be huge for this team.

Tie.

[UWisco]

Tie.

I know the game was a tie. I was just speaking as a confidence booster. As you see I said shootout win, not win.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

I know the game was a tie. I was just speaking as a confidence booster. As you see I said shootout win, not win.

Don't sweat it. EODS is just practicing his dour.

Alright Bucky-- Let's get it done tonight.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Omg!!! Paape scored!!!

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Hold on to it, boys! Let's get #1!

Also: Who's your Paape?

[Gurtholfin]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

And the push for #7 commences...

[Gurtholfin]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Good for the kids.