The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[DaveStPaul]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Of course they'll get beat. Robert Morris is just one guy.

One dead guy, at that! Unbelievable effort to make the tourney out of that man.

[Patman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I don't remember where this was posted, but is there something explaining the nuances in the new RPI method, I'm trying to implement it.

[UML Puck Hawk]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Not sure if anyone is interested, but CHN allows you to look at how the pairwise would have looked this year if the parameters were left alone (TUC bubble, etc.). I don't recall whether the AHA champ became a TUC once they qualified and I would guess that throws their calculations off at all, but interesting none the less.

1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Union
4 Mass.-Lowell
5 Notre Dame
6 Quinnipiac
7 Colgate
8 Wisconsin
9 St. Cloud State
10 Providence
11 Ferris State
12 Minnesota State
13 Vermont
14 North Dakota
27 Denver
-- Robert Morris
__________________________________________________ ____________________

15 Cornell
16 Michigan
17 New Hampshire
18 Minnesota-Duluth
19 Northeastern

[Patman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Alright, the new RPI... does it compute the weights all the way through... i.e. is EVERY component weighted throughout? Right now I'm not jiving with USCHO and its unclear where I should test. All I did was provide an adjusted input matrix of wins/ties and games.

[Patman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Are home ties worth .4 and .8 games... and road ties worth .6 and 1.2 games?

If so, that'd explain it and yuck... asymmetry...

a game is weighted

0.8 to a home team if it is a win or a tie... road team if it is a loss

1.0 for all neutral site games

1.2 to a road team if it is a win or a tie... home team if it is a loss

?

That's quite ugly.

edit: halle ****ing lujah! I finally got it to work... but its not as CHN stated... I haven't seen a USCHO statement either... a tie is split with 0.6 going to the road team and .4 to the home team.

Does anybody have the NCAA manual edict on this? Still many things to check, but now I know that part works.

[Patronick]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Trying to follow along with you stats guys is exhausting. I was told there would be no math.

[hockeyenthusiast]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

^^

So does that basically mean that say, if Colgate is on the road at Wisconsin, and it goes to OT, it'd be better for them to conserve the tie, and risk losing, whereas if they were home, they're almost better off going for the W (e.g. playing aggresively) than settling for the tie?

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The cut line ended up at 14 this year. The first pairwise of the new year nailed the first eight teams in the tournament (though not in order) and scored a 65% on the whole. The first bracketology had Boston College and Minnesota as the 1 seeds in Worcester and St Paul and had Lowell and QU as 2 seeds (though not the region).

This was the Sioux Sports pairwise ranking on January 8:

1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 St Cloud
4 Ferris State
5 Union
6 Quinnipiac
7 Providence
8 Mass.-Lowell
9 Michigan
10 Northeastern
11 Clarkson
12 Cornell
13 New Hampshire
14 Vermont
15 Wisconsin
---
16 MSU-Mankato
17 Notre Dame
18 Maine
19 Miami
20 North Dakota
21 Yale
22 Lake Superior
23 Bowling Green
24 Colgate
25 Ohio State
26 Denver
27 Minnesota-Duluth
28 Brown
29 Nebraska-Omaha
30 St Lawrence
31 Rensselaer
32 Western Michigan
33 Alaska Anchorage
34 Air Force
35 Northern Michigan
36 Alaska
37 Harvard
38 Boston University
39 Michigan Tech
40 Massachusetts
41 Mercyhurst
42 Bemidji State
43 Connecticut
44 Bentley
45 Michigan State
46 Canisius
47 Merrimack
48 RIT
49 Dartmouth
50 Penn State
51 Colorado College
52 Princeton
53 Niagara
54 Holy Cross
55 Robert Morris
56 American Int'l
57 Alabama-Huntsville
58 Sacred Heart
59 Army

Michigan was the highest-ranked team to fall out of the tournament while #24 Colgate was the lowest-ranked at large team to get invited.

[firstpusk]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

...Michigan was the highest-ranked team to fall out of the tournament while #24 Colgate was the lowest-ranked at large team to get invited.

Colgate had 9 of their 13 losses by that cutoff date and Michigan had 8 of their 13 losses after that date. They were teams headed in different directions on that day.

[Chief Wosinc]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

We will know there is a real power change to the East when the committe does two things.

1) Put all the Hockey East teams in only 3 regions so they cannot have an all Hockey East FF.

2) make sure that the East's best teams end up in a "region of death" so they knock themselves out before the FF.

Remember this from January 8th? It looks like the committee did just that:

1a) No Hockey East teams in the Midwest Regional
1b) No ECAC teams in the West Regional

2a) UML and BC both in the Northeast Regional
2b) Union and Quinnipiac both in the East Regional.

[LTsatch]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Just ran across this site, not sure if the pairwise posters had ever seen it, cool setup, although it is much easier to predict the pro game playoffs.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

[Patman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Just ran across this site, not sure if the pairwise posters had ever seen it, cool setup, although it is much easier to predict the pro game playoffs.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

We've seen it in past years. He's tried to do college but all he does is reconcile to his own ratings and doesn't use league play tiebreakers.

The pro game is easier because the formats are singular... one system of tie-breakers, etc.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Remember this from January 8th? It looks like the committee did just that:

1a) No Hockey East teams in the Midwest Regional
1b) No ECAC teams in the West Regional

2a) UML and BC both in the Northeast Regional
2b) Union and Quinnipiac both in the East Regional.

That observation makes Happy sad.