The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[JimDahl]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Very strange thing happened tonight. Somewhere between last night and tonight (it is 9 PM CST as I write this), CHN and USCHO PWR rankings have coalesced. Unfortunately, I was not paying sufficient enough attention to notice whose changed. However, as I type, I also notice it is the identical list to JimDahl on SiouxSports.

It appears that USCHO changed -- all 3 now seem to match the "CHN formula", weighting all three components of RPI (instead of just win%, as USCHO had been until tonight). Assuming I'm interpreting their table correctly, it would have been nice if USCHO had announced that they changed, but it wouldn't be surprising they did it silently.

Given that most people probably don't compare multiple sites or follow this stuff closely enough to realize there was any controversy, it's good for everyone that they converged.

[Dutchman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

It appears that USCHO changed -- all 3 now seem to match the "CHN formula", weighting all three components of RPI (instead of just win%, as USCHO had been until tonight). Assuming I'm interpreting their table correctly, it would have been nice if USCHO had announced that they changed, but it wouldn't be surprising they did it silently.

Given that most people probably don't compare multiple sites or follow this stuff closely enough to realize there was any controversy, it's good for everyone that they converged.

Thanks for this note. This is great news. Given how close things are this year, it will be great we are all reading from the same page.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

1-5 get a bye.


Seeds 6-8 host seeds 9-11 respectively in a one game playoff.

Then the regular best of three series with 1-4 getting home ice.

Are teams reseeded after that new first round?

Very strange thing happened tonight. Somewhere between last night and tonight (it is 9 PM CST as I write this), CHN and USCHO PWR rankings have coalesced. Unfortunately, I was not paying sufficient enough attention to notice whose changed. However, as I type, I also notice it is the identical list to JimDahl on SiouxSports.

Addition after all games posted on CHN except the Alaska game:

#1s - BC, Minny, Union, SCSU
#2s - Ferris, QU, Wisco, Lowell
#3s - N'eastern, Mich, Maine, NoDak
#4s - Cornell, NoDame, Vermont, AHA (UMD just off the bubble)

Worcester: BC v AHA, Lowell V NoDak
St Paul: Minny v Cornell, Wisco v No"Eastern
Bridgeport: Union v Vermont, QU v Maine
Cincinnati: SCSU v NoDame, Ferris v Michigan

Explanation:
For the #4 seeds, first put AHA v BC. Then, NoDame to Cincinnati. Then, Vermont has to play Union since Cornell can't.
The #2 seeds come out perfect for attendance as bracketed. For the #3s, first put Michigan in Cincinnati for attendance. Then, Lowell has to face NoDak (not Maine or Northeastern). Then, QU is higher seeded than Wisco, so they should play Maine. Northeastern to St Paul to face Wisconsin.

That looks like what I worked out last night. Attendance in Cincinnati is pretty much a lost cause, but that's about as good as it will get. Maybe if Ohio State moves into the field.

It appears that USCHO changed -- all 3 now seem to match the "CHN formula", weighting all three components of RPI (instead of just win%, as USCHO had been until tonight). Assuming I'm interpreting their table correctly, it would have been nice if USCHO had announced that they changed, but it wouldn't be surprising they did it silently.

Given that most people probably don't compare multiple sites or follow this stuff closely enough to realize there was any controversy, it's good for everyone that they converged.

People are paying attention. I've been fielding more questions than usual on twitter about the pairwise and the differences between sites. I just wish more TV media understood pairwise if they're going to try to talk about them on a broadcast (for starters, it's pairwise, not power ranking).

[DeepRed72]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

It appears that USCHO changed -- all 3 now seem to match the "CHN formula", weighting all three components of RPI (instead of just win%, as USCHO had been until tonight). Assuming I'm interpreting their table correctly, it would have been nice if USCHO had announced that they changed, but it wouldn't be surprising they did it silently.

Given that most people probably don't compare multiple sites or follow this stuff closely enough to realize there was any controversy, it's good for everyone that they converged.

Hopefully it is the correct formula now that all are using it. Perhaps the change was made because someone from the committee, who chose to remain anonymous, told the USCHO that the "CHN formula" is what will be applied.

[Biddco]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

For a moment last night UMD was 11th in the USCHO PWR and 16th in the CHN PWR. Sounds like the discrepency has been fixed.

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Another update for this week. Still have the Beanpot games to get through, but I don't expect that to change much:

	Total Apps	Current Programs	Apps / Program	Apps/Program / Year	Conf. Apps / Year	2014 Proj. Apps	2014 Proj. Apps/Program
B1G	30	6	5.00	0.50	3	3	0.50
NCHC	43	8	5.38	0.54	4.3	3	.38
WCHA	10	10	1.00	0.10	1	1	0.10
HE	41	11	3.73	0.37	4.1	5	0.45
ECAC	23	12	1.92	0.19	2.3	3	.25
AHA	13	12	1.08	0.11	1.3	1	0.08

The great normalization continues, although naturally everyone in double digits is still in a precarious situation.

Another update (since it's an issue: I'm using the USCHO PWR calcs). UMD is the last team out, several HE teams made a jump this week.

	Total Apps	Current Programs	Apps / Program	Apps/Program / Year	Conf. Apps / Year	2014 Proj. Apps	2014 Proj. Apps/Program
B1G	30	6	5.00	0.50	3	3	0.50
NCHC	43	8	5.38	0.54	4.3	2	.25
WCHA	10	10	1.00	0.10	1	1	0.10
HE	41	11	3.73	0.37	4.1	6	0.55
ECAC	23	12	1.92	0.19	2.3	3	.25
AHA	13	12	1.08	0.11	1.3	1	0.08

[Steve_MN]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

For a moment last night UMD was 11th in the USCHO PWR and 16th in the CHN PWR. Sounds like the discrepency has been fixed.

That usually happens when the sites are busy updating their results. Once all the updates are done, things seem to line up as expected.

[Biddco]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

That usually happens when the sites are busy updating their results. Once all the updates are done, things seem to line up as expected.

Stupid question. UMD was 0-2 against SCSU before this weekend. After losing Friday they went up a spot in the PWR and after losing Saturday they dropped 3 or 4 spots. Is there a different between 0-2, 0-3 and 0-4 in the PWR or is what happened to UMD reflective of other comparisons flipping?

[JF_Gophers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I can't read the USCHO color grid properly apparently. What causes BC to win the comparison with MN? It looks like they are tied in comparison points.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I can't read the USCHO color grid properly apparently. What causes BC to win the comparison with MN? It looks like they are tied in comparison points.

RPI is the tiebreaker.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

RPI is the tiebreaker.

But both BC and Minnesota defeated RPI.

[FiveHole12]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

But both BC and Minnesota defeated RPI.

Exactly.
BC 7, RPI 2
Minnesota 6, RPI 2

BC wins goal differential tie breaker.

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

nyuk nyuk nyuk

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Oh that is well done.

[JimDahl]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Shameless self promotion:
Update on each team's tournament chances

So you don't actually have to click:
tl;dr - #8 Mass.-Lowell and above seem pretty safe, through somewhere around #19 Minnesota State control their own destinies, down to about #27 Alaska Anchorage can still mathematically finish the regular season in position for an at-large bid.