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The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

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  • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

    Originally posted by QUAlum2004 View Post
    Probably for TV purposes. They like to show all the regional finals on TV along with some of the regional semifinal games. Likely can't be done if all the games are Saturday-Sunday.
    That is a good point but IDK if these regional semis really draw much of a television audience other than the schools fans who can't make it. I sure it is a loser advertising wise for whatever tv network that takes it on. They could work out a system where the regional semis are broadcast ( on like Fox Sports north middle of no-where) only in the regions where the teams are from, then do national broadcasts for Regional finals and Frozen Four.
    YALE HOCKEY
    2013 National Champions

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    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

      Pretty charts from Jim Dahl.
      Cornell University
      National Champion 1967, 1970
      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

        Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
        I sure it is a loser advertising wise for whatever tv network that takes it on.
        ESPN doesn't care about college hockey so who cares what their advertising return is?
        Quinnipiac Bobcats
        2023 National Champions
        ECAC Regular Season Champions: 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24
        ECAC Tournament Champions: 2016
        East Regional: 2013 (Champions), 2014, 2016 (Champions), 2023 (Champions)
        Northeast Regional:

        West Regional: 2015, 2021
        Midwest Regional: 2019, 2022
        Frozen Four: 2013, 2016, 2023 (Champions)

        Pass complete. Lipkin has a man in front! Shot... SCORE!!!

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        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

          Sunday Feb 2. For Reilly Hamilton and Jim Dahl. What is happening that is different in Reilly's calculation? He is excluding the Gophers' game at home with Michigan State, and the others aren't? Also, how does it happen that the home win is excluded, but not the away win?

          And, spare all the details, but the bubble is very volatile right now.

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          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
            Sunday Feb 2. For Reilly Hamilton and Jim Dahl. What is happening that is different in Reilly's calculation? He is excluding the Gophers' game at home with Michigan State, and the others aren't? Also, how does it happen that the home win is excluded, but not the away win?

            And, spare all the details, but the bubble is very volatile right now.
            Latest update I see from Dahl is 1/29 - are you sure you're comparing apples?
            If you don't change the world today, how can it be any better tomorrow?

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            • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

              Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
              Latest update I see from Dahl is 1/29 - are you sure you're comparing apples?
              Yep. Go here: http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr/

              This is auto-update, and matches uscho exactly.

              Reilly is doing something different, and I am curious what it is.

              Most results match, it's just a few odd ones with deleted games...

              Edit: It may not be the deleted games causing the difference. It may be a home/neutral ice definition. Vermont, Bowling Green, Penn State, and RoMo are also affected.

              I hope Reilly gets here, because I think it is:

              Minn/Ohio State outdoor game at TCF - Minn home or neutral?

              Three Rivers Classic - RoMo v PSU and RoMo v BGSU. Are these neutral or RoMo home games?

              And, Vermont/Penn State at Philadelphia in October - PSU home or neutral ice?

              Not sure I know about another game for OSU. So, I don't know why the Minn game doesn't affect their RPI?
              Last edited by Numbers; 02-02-2014, 01:36 PM.

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              • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                Ah - thought you were referring to Dahl's blog that Kepler linked to in #152.
                If you don't change the world today, how can it be any better tomorrow?

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                • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                  There are currently two differences in which matchups are marked neutral between USCHO's schedule (which USCHO and I use) and CollegeHockeyStats (which Reilly uses):
                  Oct 26 Penn St vs Vermont
                  Dec 28 Bowling Green vs Robert Morris
                  That accounted for the differences in those teams. I updated my database to match CHS (which states that the first is neutral, the second at home).

                  Second, Reilly handles an edge case in the negative wins slightly differently than USCHO and I. I went into some detail in this USCHO forum post when I first noticed it, but I haven't succeeded at reverse engineering how he gets his numbers. It only seems to occur when Reilly drops some, but not all, wins of a team over one other.
                  Last edited by JimDahl; 02-02-2014, 04:39 PM.

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                  • Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                    There are currently two differences in which matchups are marked neutral between USCHO's schedule (which USCHO and I use) and CollegeHockeyStats (which Reilly uses):
                    Oct 26 Penn St vs Vermont
                    Dec 28 Bowling Green vs Robert Morris
                    That accounted for the differences in those teams. I updated my database to match CHS (which states that the first is neutral, the second at home).

                    Second, Reilly handles an edge case in the negative wins slightly differently than USCHO and I. I went into some detail in this USCHO forum post when I first noticed it, but I haven't succeeded at reverse engineering how he gets his numbers. It only seems to occur when Reilly drops some, but not all, wins of a team over one other.
                    Thanks, Jim. I can't see how it would work to remove a home win and not a road win. Each is worth the same in the oppo and oppo,oppo win percentage. Each counts as 1.000 for a team's own win percentage. One counts 1.2 times, the other 0.8. So I can't reverse engineer that either.

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                    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                      Not sure it's worth doing a big Bracket Analysis this week, but here goes anyway:

                      Going strictly by the PWR:
                      St Paul: Minny v Mercyhurst (1 v 16); Mich v St Cloud (8 v 9)
                      Worcester: BC v NoDak (2 v 15); Lowell v N'eastern (7 v 10)
                      Bridgeport: Quinn v UNH (3 v 14); Cornell v Providence (6 v 11)
                      Cincinnati: Union v Wisconsin (4 v 13); Ferris St v UMD (5 v 12)

                      2 things need help: The Lowell/N'eastern matchup can't happen, and Cincinnati lacks good drawing teams.
                      In the case of Cincinnati, one hesitates to move any of the #2 seeds, because we want Lowell and Cornell in the east, and putting Ferris (#5) in the top seed's regional seems a bit much. However, this is an extreme case, so I would swap Ferris and Michigan. Then, we would be left with the other problem, and the right way to solve that is to swap N'eastern and UMD, leaving St Cloud in St Paul. Then:

                      St Paul: Minn v Mercyhurst (1 v 16), Ferris v St Cloud (5 v 9)
                      Worcester: BC v NoDak (2 v 15), Lowell v UMD (7 v 12)
                      Bridgeport: Quinn v UNH (3 v 14), Cornell v Providence (6 v 11)
                      Cincinnati: Union v Wisconsin (4 v 13), Michigan v Northeastern (8 v 10)

                      Not perfect, because there still is not much draw in Cincinnati, but not much we can do about that.

                      In the larger sense, the interesting thing right now, as we await Round 1 of the Beanpot, is how tightly the teams are bunched from 13 to 20 in the RPI. There is not going to be much clear predicting going on for those last spots in the field until the very end - RPI can change that much quickly.

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                      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                        Thanks, Jim. I can't see how it would work to remove a home win and not a road win. Each is worth the same in the oppo and oppo,oppo win percentage. Each counts as 1.000 for a team's own win percentage. One counts 1.2 times, the other 0.8. So I can't reverse engineer that either.
                        As you noted, we've all implemented it to only apply the weighting to the win%. As an extreme example, if the win% is beneficial (pulls the RPI up) but the opp win% and opp opp win% are harmful (push the RPI down), it's possible for a win with a .8 weighted win% to have the overall effect of pulling the RPI down while a game against the same opponent with a 1.2 weighted win% could pull it up. There are actually some more subtle quirks that come from one factor being weighted and the others not, but that's the easiest one to understand.

                        But, as I said in that previous post, I check each win individually, too. So, there's some more subtle difference between how Reilly calculates the drops and how USCHO and I do.

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                        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                          Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                          As you noted, we've all implemented it to only apply the weighting to the win%. As an extreme example, if the win% is beneficial (pulls the RPI up) but the opp win% and opp opp win% are harmful (push the RPI down), it's possible for a win with a .8 weighted win% to have the overall effect of pulling the RPI down while a game against the same opponent with a 1.2 weighted win% could pull it up. There are actually some more subtle quirks that come from one factor being weighted and the others not, but that's the easiest one to understand.

                          But, as I said in that previous post, I check each win individually, too. So, there's some more subtle difference between how Reilly calculates the drops and how USCHO and I do.
                          Oh, thanks again Jim. I see now the difference. In previous years, with no weighting, you could do this:

                          Game 1: .25*w1+.21*o1+.54*oo1 +
                          Game 2: .25*w2+.21*o2+.54*.oo2 (where w1 is either 1.0, 0.5 or 0.0 for W, T, or L) and so on and add them all up and then divide by the number of games your team in question played. Thus, it was easy to see the effect of removing a game: Just do the addition again without that game involved.

                          Now, however, it’s way more complicated. I am not sure how you do this one. Can you help me get it?

                          The definition is still: win%(weighted)*.25 + oppwin%*.21 + oppoppwin%*.54, right? But now, since each part of each game doesn’t have the same weighting, you can’t just remove one game as above and redo the addition.

                          I wondered at one time whether it went like this:

                          Game 1: (weighting factor of 1.2, 1.0 or 0.8)*(.25*w1 + .21*o1 +.54*oo1). (ie – the weighting factor applies to whole game) And do the sum like that.
                          In that case, the oppwin% would not be weighted itself, but rather only through the weighting of the game. It would be like: OK, you have a maximum available to you for this game. The entire contribution of this game is home/road weighted….. This would make it easy to do the calculation, and make it easy to see which games should be removed. You would have to remove all games against an opponent in that scenario. But apparently it is not like that.

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                          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                            Right, instead of being able to calculate a per game RPI and take the average of those, if you have different weights for the components you instead need to calculate each component separately and then combine them into an RPI. To remove a game, you either need to recalculate the whole thing without that game or remove the effects of that game from each of the components then recombine them.

                            As to your last paragraph, the memo wasn't clear on how to weight the games. I would kind of prefer fully weighting all components, because I liked the idea of each game having an RPI. It's not clear which is correct, so for now I'm just doing what USCHO does (which is just weight the win%)

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                            • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                              Originally posted by ExileOnDaytonStreet View Post
                              Update:

                              Total Apps Current Programs Apps / Program Apps/Program / Year Conf. Apps / Year 2014 Proj. Apps 2014 Proj. Apps/Program
                              B1G 30 6 5.00 0.50 3 3 0.50
                              NCHC 43 8 5.38 0.54 4.3 2 0.25
                              WCHA 10 10 1.00 0.10 1 1 0.10
                              HE 41 11 3.73 0.37 4.1 5 0.45
                              ECAC 23 12 1.92 0.19 2.3 4 0.33
                              AHA 13 12 1.08 0.11 1.3 1 0.08
                              Another update for this week. Still have the Beanpot games to get through, but I don't expect that to change much:


                              Total Apps Current Programs Apps / Program Apps/Program / Year Conf. Apps / Year 2014 Proj. Apps 2014 Proj. Apps/Program
                              B1G 30 6 5.00 0.50 3 3 0.50
                              NCHC 43 8 5.38 0.54 4.3 3 .38
                              WCHA 10 10 1.00 0.10 1 1 0.10
                              HE 41 11 3.73 0.37 4.1 5 0.45
                              ECAC 23 12 1.92 0.19 2.3 3 .25
                              AHA 13 12 1.08 0.11 1.3 1 0.08
                              The great normalization continues, although naturally everyone in double digits is still in a precarious situation.
                              If you want to be a BADGER, just come along with me

                              BRING BACK PAT RICHTER!!!


                              At his graduation ceremony from the U of Minnesota, my cousin got a keychain. When asked what UW gave her for graduation, my sister said, "A degree from a University that matters."

                              Canned music is a pathetic waste of your time.

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                              • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                                There will be a more thorough post after the Crockpot tomorrow night.

                                For now, the brackets are:
                                Code:
                                Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)		Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)
                                Union			Boston College			Ferris State		Minnesota
                                Lowell			St Cloud			Quinnipiac		Wisconsin
                                Cornell			Providence			Michigan		Northeastern
                                Vermont			Air Force			Duluth			Colgate
                                Bracket integrity among the 3 and 4 seeds is tossed out the window in favor of attendance since Wisconsin-Michigan and Lowell-Providence would have fouled things up anyway.

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