The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[Tipsy McStagger]

Can it be concluded that the NCHC, while a good (great) idea on paper has been a disaster in terms of NCAA selection?

Absolutely, if you only focus on the PWR at the halfway point and also ignore the fact that UND and Denver lost a huge amount of talent in the offseason. Miami is the only surprise in the NCHC this season

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

So the eastern conference teams will fall, because they all have to play each other. And the western conference teams will rise up, because they all have to play each other.

Got it.

Yes, Tony. Because in the case of the Eastern Teams, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 5 teams have to win the majority of their games. It seems likely to me that this will not happen, and that it is far more likely that some team which so far has been playing well, will end up losing, because they have to play all the "highly ranked already" teams ahead of them.

On the other hand, in the West, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 8 or 9 teams have to lose half of their games. It seems likely to me that this will also not happen, and that it is more likely that NoDak, or Denver, or Mankato, or some UP school, goes on a run, because after all, they are going to play most of their games against teams that are not so "highly ranked" right now.

In short, it's an odds prediction. Out of 3 schools in the Eastern Conferences, it's likely that someone has a mediocre 2nd half, especially playing what looks like good competition.

Out of 4 schools in the Western Conferences, it's likely that someone will have a 'Good' 2nd half, especially taking advantage of what right now looks like "mediocre" competition.

In past years, when the PWR had a TUC component, this would have been even more true considering the conference tournaments. Someone out of those 5 teams in the HE and ECAC would lose a quarterfinal series, and have their RPI drop with 2 losses, plus their TUC record drop with 2 losses, and find themselves out of the tourney. With no TUC Cliff this year, teams with good RPIs will be more insulated in the conference tournament play. That's because a team like UND right now could go on a run and sweep their way to the NCHC final, only to lsoe to SCSU, and they might not get any QWB pts for their RPI because of who they would face in the NCHC tourney.

And, to guess the NCAA tourney, even leaving that prediction (of UND or someone getting hot in 2nd half, and Yale and NotreDame going cold 2nd half) out, consider the conference tourneys and the auto-bids.

Odds that there is an upset out-lier winner from HE or ECAC (when it would have to be 5th or lower in the regular conference play) are not so high.
Odds that an out-lier upsets in NCHC or WCHA: Very high when only the regular season champ is currently among the top 15 in the PWR.

[Stauber1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

So the eastern conference teams will fall, because they all have to play each other. And the western conference teams will rise up, because they all have to play each other.

Got it.

Yes, Tony. Because in the case of the Eastern Teams, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 5 teams have to win the majority of their games. It seems likely to me that this will not happen, and that it is far more likely that some team which so far has been playing well, will end up losing, because they have to play all the "highly ranked already" teams ahead of them.

On the other hand, in the West, if you assume that everyone stays where they are, then 8 or 9 teams have to lose half of their games. It seems likely to me that this will also not happen, and that it is more likely that NoDak, or Denver, or Mankato, or some UP school, goes on a run, because after all, they are going to play most of their games against teams that are not so "highly ranked" right now.

In short, it's an odds prediction. Out of 3 schools in the Eastern Conferences, it's likely that someone has a mediocre 2nd half, especially playing what looks like good competition.

Out of 4 schools in the Western Conferences, it's likely that someone will have a 'Good' 2nd half, especially taking advantage of what right now looks like "mediocre" competition.

In past years, when the PWR had a TUC component, this would have been even more true considering the conference tournaments. Someone out of those 5 teams in the HE and ECAC would lose a quarterfinal series, and have their RPI drop with 2 losses, plus their TUC record drop with 2 losses, and find themselves out of the tourney. With no TUC Cliff this year, teams with good RPIs will be more insulated in the conference tournament play. That's because a team like UND right now could go on a run and sweep their way to the NCHC final, only to lsoe to SCSU, and they might not get any QWB pts for their RPI because of who they would face in the NCHC tourney.

And, to guess the NCAA tourney, even leaving that prediction (of UND or someone getting hot in 2nd half, and Yale and NotreDame going cold 2nd half) out, consider the conference tourneys and the auto-bids.

Odds that there is an upset out-lier winner from HE or ECAC (when it would have to be 5th or lower in the regular conference play) are not so high.
Odds that an out-lier upsets in NCHC or WCHA: Very high when only the regular season champ is currently among the top 15 in the PWR.

I was going to give a less detailed response, but essentially the same sentiment.

Numbers has gone out on a bit of a limb with some fairly specific predictions, but statistically speaking we can expect things to normalize somewhat between the conferences. It is true that just as it is possible that 1 or 2 ECAC teams may drop out of the tournament it is possible that the ECAC (or Hockey East) may add a team to their roster of tournament teams. However, the most likely scenario is for the discrepancy between conferences to even out to some degree.

To go out a bit on my own limb (although I don't think all that much), I will be quite surprised if we see a #3 or #4 seed win it all this year. There are so many solid teams in the top 6-8 right now; a 3rd or 4th seed will have a very daunting gauntlet in front of them.

[manurespreader]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I agree with the above sentiment, and if North Dakota is playing so well, how did they struggle so mightily with Bemidji.?
If I was an ECAC team barely in, aka yale or clarkson, I'd be real worried about Colgate. In fact maybe Bucigross ought to have picked Colgate to be number 9.

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I agree with the above sentiment, and if North Dakota is playing so well, how did they struggle so mightily with Bemidji.?

I don't think you saw those games if you thought UND "struggled mightily" with BSU. Granted, they tied the first night, in Bemidji, but pretty much dominated the game. Sometimes you just have to tip your hat to the other team. BSU has played about 8-10 overtime games this year, so they can play you pretty tight. Candidly, UND hasn't got the skill up front to routinely blow teams out, even the poorer teams. They need to win a lot of 3-2 games.

I don't know how well UND is playing. The current nine game unbeaten streak was against some pretty weak competition, although the sweep at WMU is looking better all the time. They are certainly playing a lot better than they did before Thanksgiving. Probably a lot to do with improving health to their forwards, and the newcomers learning the system.

We'll find out how well they're playing these next 10 games. I'd take a 6-3-1 record and then take our chances in the playoffs. UND is in the middle of a pretty tight RPI grouping, so some wins will bump them up, but I suspect it's probably going to take a pretty deep NCHC playoff run, if not a tournament victory to get this team in.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I was going to give a less detailed response, but essentially the same sentiment.

Numbers has gone out on a bit of a limb with some fairly specific predictions, but statistically speaking we can expect things to normalize somewhat between the conferences. It is true that just as it is possible that 1 or 2 ECAC teams may drop out of the tournament it is possible that the ECAC (or Hockey East) may add a team to their roster of tournament teams. However, the most likely scenario is for the discrepancy between conferences to even out to some degree.

To go out a bit on my own limb (although I don't think all that much), I will be quite surprised if we see a #3 or #4 seed win it all this year. There are so many solid teams in the top 6-8 right now; a 3rd or 4th seed will have a very daunting gauntlet in front of them.

Thank you Stauber. Also, I want to emphasize that my examples of who might rise or fall have are not intended to say "I think this team is better than it has been playing so far....." My examples are really not team-specific. My only point is that statistically, the ECAC and HEA have done well so far this year, and, given the OOC records, likely have a collection of 'better' teams than the west. However, in conference play, the net result is .500 for the whole conference, so the HEA and ECAC as a whole league are going to have a 'worse' 2nd half than 1st half. And, NCHC and WCHA will have a 'better' 2nd half than 1st half.

So, please don't anyone take my comments as a "West is better than East". I don't mean them that way at all.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I know you weren't haha I was just picking on you.

[Biddco]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Can it be concluded that the NCHC, while a good (great) idea on paper has been a disaster in terms of NCAA selection?

The non-conference record of the conference is really what is bringing it down.

[Almington]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Thank you Stauber. Also, I want to emphasize that my examples of who might rise or fall have are not intended to say "I think this team is better than it has been playing so far....." My examples are really not team-specific. My only point is that statistically, the ECAC and HEA have done well so far this year, and, given the OOC records, likely have a collection of 'better' teams than the west. However, in conference play, the net result is .500 for the whole conference, so the HEA and ECAC as a whole league are going to have a 'worse' 2nd half than 1st half. And, NCHC and WCHA will have a 'better' 2nd half than 1st half.

So, please don't anyone take my comments as a "West is better than East". I don't mean them that way at all.

If two eastern teams who are just on the inside of the bubble play, someone has to lose and runs the risk of falling to the outside of the bubble. When two western teams who are on the outside of the bubble play, someone has to win, and if they win enough games they my be able to displace the eastern team who has to lose.

Because of the someone has to win AND lose, conference games tend to reduce the dominance of a single conference, athough given the current RPI weightings, the western teams have quite a uphill struggle.

[Dirty]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The non-conference record of the conference is really what is bringing it down.

Simple solution, kick UNO and CC out of the league.

[Biddco]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Simple solution, kick UNO and CC out of the league.

Let's replace them with Michigan Tech and Northern. I believe that many of their fans have wished they could have left the WCHA and joined NCHC.

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Here is the thing. To try to judge the creation of the NCHC halfway into it's first season is silly. To suggest it's been a "disaster" in terms of "NCAA selection", before any teams have even been selected in the NCHC's first season also seems a little silly.

Here are my observations.

First, in college hockey on an overall basis I think the balance of power has shifted east. From time to time this occurs. The balance of the stronger teams is currently in the east. My opinion is this has primarily to do with some early departures we've seen out west, but there certainly has been a general strengthening of the eastern programs.

I also think there is a lot of parity in college hockey. This is another year where you could easily see another team like Yale come out of nowhere to win it.

As for the NCHC, in general it's played out about how I expected it, with the exception being Miami. I think the league has a shot to get 3 teams in, and I think we've seen a lot of good young players come into the league. It was billed as a very competitive league, top to bottom, and I think we'll see that.

[LynahFan]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

As for the NCHC, in general it's played out about how I expected it, with the exception being Miami. I think the league has a shot to get 3 teams in, and I think we've seen a lot of good young players come into the league. It was billed as a very competitive league, top to bottom, and I think we'll see that.

I wouldn't be shocked if they get 3 in - one more plays their way in via conference games, and a 3rd team wins the tournament. In a one-and-done tournament among competitive teams, funny things can happen...

[FireKnight]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I came up with a slightly different bracket than Priceless, but there's surely a tough decision for the committee this week. Punishing Minnesota by playing the #13 seed is a tough call. Beyond that, moving QU out of Bridgeport and BC out of Worcester really hurts attendance.

East - Bridgeport (Yale)
2. Boston College
6. Providence
12. Clarkson
14. Yale

Northeast - Worcester
3. Quinnipiac
7. Northeastern
10. Wisconsin
16. Mercyhurst

Midwest - Cincinnati (Miami)
4. Union
5. Ferris State
11. Notre Dame
15. Michigan

West - St. Paul (Minnesota)
1. Minnesota
8. St. Cloud State
9. UMass-Lowell
13. Cornell

[LynahFan]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

And #13 is not terribly excited to play the overall #1 effectively at home rather than #4 overall in a more neutral location....