The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Sorry. Try it 0.05 and so on... Look at Reilly Hamilton site. It shoes all the details for each team.

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh okay, that makes much more sense -- thank you!

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh okay, that makes much more sense -- thank you!

Sorry again. I was trying to post from my phone. I never really worry about the decimals until the end, and then since I know how it has to work out, I just move them accordingly.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

So, does this become an iterative process? As you add these bonus points, don't some of the positions change?

Yes they change. But, you only do it once. No iteration.

1) Rank the teams by RPI (which is numerically labourous, because of the 0.8/1.2 thing depending on home/away).
2) Add QWB points based on results with those teams
3) Re-rank with what now is "Final RPI"

Essentially, the final definition of RPI is not "This is a good number that compares the teams records, adjusted for who they played." No, the final definition is:

This is a good number comparing teams across their schedules, but we want to give incentive to play better teams, especially on the road, so that is figured in.......

Kind of like last years RPI and TUC molded into 1 number.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

In the past 11 years there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 156 teams, 121 (77.6%) that qualified as of the mid-January PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 41 of the 44 (93.2%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the mid-January PWR have made the tournament. 37 of the 44 (84.1%) teams ranked 5-8 made it. "Only" 28 of the 44 (63.6%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2005 11 of the top 12 teams in the mid-January PWR qualified. Last year, #5 Boston University, #10 Western Michigan and #12 Dartmouth did not qualify. As I predicted last year at this time, Wisconsin did make the tournament, coming from 26th in the pairwise.

The 2006 Maine and 2010 Northern Michigan teams were the lowest-ranked at #24 to still earn a tournament invitation. Nine teams that were ranked #20 or below have risen to earn a spot in the tournament. I'm not one for prognostications, but #26 Wisconsin still has eight games vs TUC on the schedule and can make a lot of noise in the second half.

26 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in mid-January. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Ohio State, Vermont and they are joined by BU and Dartmouth. Conference affiliations have been shot to hell, but for the period 2003-2013, eight WCHA teams had fallen out of contention, along with seven from Hockey East, six from the CCHA and five from the ECAC.

As for the top of this year's rankings, it's very hard to imagine a scenario where Minnesota or BC fail to make the tournament. I'm sure if someone tries hard enough they can find a way, but for all intents the Gophers and Eagles are in. Likewise, it would take Union and Quinnipiac badly stubbing their toe in conference play to drop out. Ferris should also make it, but that's been said before - they were #5 in 2010 and fell all the way out.

Today's pairwise
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Quinnipiac
4 Union
5 Ferris State
6 Providence
7 Northeastern
8 St. Cloud State
9 Mass.-Lowell
10 Wisconsin
11 Notre Dame
12 Clarkson
13 Cornell
14 Yale
15 Michigan
--
16 Vermont
17 Minnesota State
18 Maine
19 North Dakota
20 Colgate
21 Western Michigan
22 New Hampshire
23 Denver
24 Bowling Green
25 Minnesota-Duluth
26 Brown
27 Alaska-Anchorage
28 Air Force
29 Ohio State
30 Miami
31 Nebraska-Omaha
32 Lake Superior
33 Northern Michigan
34 Rensselaer
35 St. Lawrence
36 Alaska-Fairbanks
37 Mercyhurst
38 Bemidji State
39 Bentley
40 Michigan State
41 Merrimack
42 Michigan Tech
43 Harvard
44 Massachusetts
45 Connecticut
46 Boston University
47 Canisius
48 Dartmouth
49 RIT
50 Princeton
51 Colorado College
52 Penn State
53 Holy Cross
54 Robert Morris
55 American Int'l
56 Niagara
57 Sacred Heart
58 Alabama-Huntsville
59 Army

Putting teams into bands is going to prove crucial in today's bracketology.

1 seeds - Minnesota, Boston College, Quinnipiac, Union
2 seeds - Ferris State. Providence, Northesatern, St Cloud
3 seeds - Lowell, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Clarkson
4 seeds - Cornell, Yale, Michigan, Air Force

#1 Minnesota and #14 Yale are hosts so they get placed first.
Then place BC in Worcester, Quinnipiac in Bridgeport (problem 1) and Union in Cincinnati.
The 2 seeds follow - Ferris in Cincy, Providence in Bridgeport, Northeastern in Worcester and St Cloud in St Paul. So far so good.
The 3 seeds go Lowell in St Paul, Wisconsin in Worcester, Notre Dame in Bridgeport (problem 2) and Clarkson in Cincy.
Yale already represents the 4 seeds in Bridgeport. Air Force is the bottom seed so they go to St Paul, Michigan to Worcester and Cornell to Cincinnati (problem 3).

That gives us a bracket that looks like:

Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)		Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)
Quinnipiac		Boston College			Union			Minnesota
Providence		Northeastern			Ferris State		St Cloud
Notre Dame		Wisconsin			Clarkson		Lowell
Yale			Michigan			Cornell			Air Force

Problems all over the place. Now, the rules state that if a conference gets five teams in, intraconference first-round games are allowed. Both Hockey East and the ECAC have five teams so technically this can go forward. However, one look at the Cincinnati bracket shows it will be an attendance wasteland. We can do better, but it is going to require more than a little tinkering.

Minnesota and Yale are both hosts, so can't be moved. There are two #1 seeds from the ECAC so the only possible team to go Bridgeport is BC. Quinnipiac goes to Worcester. Notre Dame and Clarkson trade places to resolve the problem with 3 seeds which leaves us with a dilemma with the 4 seeds. Cornell can't go to either Cincinnati or Worcester so the Big Red have to go to St Paul. #16 Air Force would then be slotted with #2, but that spot is already taken by Yale. They can go to Cincinnati, but looking at attendance, Michigan AND Notre Dame in Ohio is too good to pass up. The Falcons fly to Worcester.

That gives us our final bracket of:

Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)		Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)
Boston College		Quinnipac			Union			Minnesota
Northeastern		Providence			Ferris State		St Cloud
Wisconsin		Clarkson			Notre Dame		Lowell
Yale			Air Force			Michigan		Cornell

[joecct]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Can it be concluded that the NCHC, while a good (great) idea on paper has been a disaster in terms of NCAA selection?

[komey1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Can it be concluded that the NCHC, while a good (great) idea on paper has been a disaster in terms of NCAA selection?

I think we need a couple years to be conclusive, but early returns show that is a possible outcome. I think quite a few people saw this coming too, as the teams woud cannibalize each other in conference play and knock each other out.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I think we need a couple years to be conclusive, but early returns show that is a possible outcome. I think quite a few people saw this coming too, as the teams woud cannibalize each other in conference play and knock each other out.

Good post, Komey. And, to add a little....

In this case, the year was shot for NCHC before the conference play really started. It is the fault of poor OOC play that only St Cloud is currently in NCAA tournament position.

That said, I think it likely that NCHC gets 2 teams in at the end of the season (this without considering the possibility of an auto-bid upset).

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Good post, Komey. And, to add a little....

In this case, the year was shot for NCHC before the conference play really started. It is the fault of poor OOC play that only St Cloud is currently in NCAA tournament position.

That said, I think it likely that NCHC gets 2 teams in at the end of the season (this without considering the possibility of an auto-bid upset).

Buccigross just put North Dakota at #9 in his rankings. I guess tying #38 is more impressive than I thought.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Today's pairwise
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Quinnipiac
4 Union
5 Ferris State
6 Providence
7 Northeastern
8 St. Cloud State
9 Mass.-Lowell
10 Wisconsin
11 Notre Dame
12 Clarkson
13 Cornell
14 Yale
15 Michigan
--
16 Vermont
17 Minnesota State
18 Maine
19 North Dakota
20 Colgate
21 Western Michigan
22 New Hampshire
23 Denver
24 Bowling Green
25 Minnesota-Duluth
26 Brown
27 Alaska-Anchorage
28 Air Force
29 Ohio State
30 Miami
31 Nebraska-Omaha
32 Lake Superior
33 Northern Michigan
34 Rensselaer
35 St. Lawrence
36 Alaska-Fairbanks
37 Mercyhurst
38 Bemidji State
39 Bentley
40 Michigan State
41 Merrimack
42 Michigan Tech
43 Harvard
44 Massachusetts
45 Connecticut
46 Boston University
47 Canisius
48 Dartmouth
49 RIT
50 Princeton
51 Colorado College
52 Penn State
53 Holy Cross
54 Robert Morris
55 American Int'l
56 Niagara
57 Sacred Heart
58 Alabama-Huntsville
59 Army

Putting teams into bands is going to prove crucial in today's bracketology.

1 seeds - Minnesota, Boston College, Quinnipiac, Union
2 seeds - Ferris State. Providence, Northesatern, St Cloud
3 seeds - Lowell, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Clarkson
4 seeds - Cornell, Yale, Michigan, Air Force

#1 Minnesota and #14 Yale are hosts so they get placed first.
Then place BC in Worcester, Quinnipiac in Bridgeport (problem 1) and Union in Cincinnati.
The 2 seeds follow - Ferris in Cincy, Providence in Bridgeport, Northeastern in Worcester and St Cloud in St Paul. So far so good.
The 3 seeds go Lowell in St Paul, Wisconsin in Worcester, Notre Dame in Bridgeport (problem 2) and Clarkson in Cincy.
Yale already represents the 4 seeds in Bridgeport. Air Force is the bottom seed so they go to St Paul, Michigan to Worcester and Cornell to Cincinnati (problem 3).

That gives us a bracket that looks like:

Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)		Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)
Quinnipiac		Boston College			Union			Minnesota
Providence		Northeastern			Ferris State		St Cloud
Notre Dame		Wisconsin			Clarkson		Lowell
Yale			Michigan			Cornell			Air Force

Problems all over the place. Now, the rules state that if a conference gets five teams in, intraconference first-round games are allowed. Both Hockey East and the ECAC have five teams so technically this can go forward. However, one look at the Cincinnati bracket shows it will be an attendance wasteland. We can do better, but it is going to require more than a little tinkering.

Minnesota and Yale are both hosts, so can't be moved. There are two #1 seeds from the ECAC so the only possible team to go Bridgeport is BC. Quinnipiac goes to Worcester. Notre Dame and Clarkson trade places to resolve the problem with 3 seeds which leaves us with a dilemma with the 4 seeds. Cornell can't go to either Cincinnati or Worcester so the Big Red have to go to St Paul. #16 Air Force would then be slotted with #2, but that spot is already taken by Yale. They can go to Cincinnati, but looking at attendance, Michigan AND Notre Dame in Ohio is too good to pass up. The Falcons fly to Worcester.

That gives us our final bracket of:

Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)		Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)
Boston College		Quinnipac			Union			Minnesota
Northeastern		Providence			Ferris State		St Cloud
Wisconsin		Clarkson			Notre Dame		Lowell
Yale			Air Force			Michigan		Cornell

Priceless,

I believe this exact bracket situation might be a test case for THIS committee. Minnesota (overall #1 by a large margin), plays Cornell rather than Air Force in the Region Semis because of the "no intraconference play" rule. As you pointed out, the 5-team exception could be invoked here, and Minnesota given the protection they may have "earned." Now, I am not saying the committee would do that (I doubt it, actually). Just saying that there is an rules interpretation which allows it.

Also, given that there is pretty much only conference play left (exceptions: Minnesota Cup, Beanpot and a few odd games), I strongly suspect that in the end, a few things will change:

ECAC: Right now, Cornell, Clarkson, Yale and Colgate are all on the bubble, with 3 of them in the field. I predict that only 2 of these eventually qualify, leaving ECAC with 4.

HE: Similar logic applies, with respect to Lowell, Notre Dame and Vermont. I predict that only 1 of these qualify, or that Providence or Northeastern will take a precipitous fall, and HE will end up with 4 teams in the tourney.

NCHC: With only conference games left, someone has to win those games. North Dakota, Western Michigan, Denver or UMD will make a 2nd half run and qualify. Most likely, NoDak based on past years' patterns.

WCHA: Same logic as NCHC. I think Mankato will qualify.

B1G: Wisconsin and Michigan will both hang on to their spots.

So, I think in the end we will see:
ECAC - 4; HEA - 4; B1G - 3; NCHC - 2; WCHA - 2; AHA - 1.

I say this simply based on the fact that someone has to win and lose all those conference games.

So, I think the final bracket will not be as difficult as today's would have been.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

However, one look at the Cincinnati bracket shows it will be an attendance wasteland. We can do better, but it is going to require more than a little tinkering.

Not that this is entirely a matter for this thread, but Cincinnati is going to be an attendance wasteland regardless of who gets placed there. Toledo was even with Miami and Notre Dame, and Toledo is a good two hours closer to me than is Cincinnati. As well, Fort Wayne was a wasteland, even with Miami and Michigan placed there. I suppose it's possible the most reasonably priced tickets for a regional in many years may prove to be a more positive factor than I believe it will be, but I really have my doubts. With Notre Dame and Michigan hardly locks based on their up and down seasons, and the chances for any of the Ohio schools resting on highly unlikely auto bids, I think the possibility exists that we may be looking at the smallest regional crowd the tournament has yet seen.

[sfo19]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Buccigross just put North Dakota at #9 in his rankings. I guess tying #38 is more impressive than I thought.

It's not about the tie, it's about who is playing well. North Dakota hasn't lost since the end of November. It's about giving credit where credit's due.

[sfo19]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Not that this is entirely a matter for this thread, but Cincinnati is going to be an attendance wasteland regardless of who gets placed there. Toledo was even with Miami and Notre Dame, and Toledo is a good two hours closer to me than is Cincinnati. As well, Fort Wayne was a wasteland, even with Miami and Michigan placed there. I suppose it's possible the most reasonably priced tickets for a regional in many years may prove to be a more positive factor than I believe it will be, but I really have my doubts. With Notre Dame and Michigan hardly locks based on their up and down seasons, and the chances for any of the Ohio schools resting on highly unlikely auto bids, I think the possibility exists that we may be looking at the smallest regional crowd the tournament has yet seen.

The NCAA knows this regional will be a disaster. My roommate and I have both received emails from an NCAA sales rep trying to sell us tickets...

We live in Minneapolis.

[komey1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless - Mercyhurst actually leads the AHA and would be the #1 seed.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless - Mercyhurst actually leads the AHA and would be the #1 seed.

He knows that. Priceless always chooses the highest ranked team in the PWR, rather than in the conference standings, in situations like this.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Priceless,

I believe this exact bracket situation might be a test case for THIS committee. Minnesota (overall #1 by a large margin), plays Cornell rather than Air Force in the Region Semis because of the "no intraconference play" rule. As you pointed out, the 5-team exception could be invoked here, and Minnesota given the protection they may have "earned." Now, I am not saying the committee would do that (I doubt it, actually). Just saying that there is an rules interpretation which allows it.

Also, given that there is pretty much only conference play left (exceptions: Minnesota Cup, Beanpot and a few odd games), I strongly suspect that in the end, a few things will change:

ECAC: Right now, Cornell, Clarkson, Yale and Colgate are all on the bubble, with 3 of them in the field. I predict that only 2 of these eventually qualify, leaving ECAC with 4.

HE: Similar logic applies, with respect to Lowell, Notre Dame and Vermont. I predict that only 1 of these qualify, or that Providence or Northeastern will take a precipitous fall, and HE will end up with 4 teams in the tourney.

NCHC: With only conference games left, someone has to win those games. North Dakota, Western Michigan, Denver or UMD will make a 2nd half run and qualify. Most likely, NoDak based on past years' patterns.

WCHA: Same logic as NCHC. I think Mankato will qualify.

B1G: Wisconsin and Michigan will both hang on to their spots.

So, I think in the end we will see:
ECAC - 4; HEA - 4; B1G - 3; NCHC - 2; WCHA - 2; AHA - 1.

I say this simply based on the fact that someone has to win and lose all those conference games.

So, I think the final bracket will not be as difficult as today's would have been.

So the eastern conference teams will fall, because they all have to play each other. And the western conference teams will rise up, because they all have to play each other.

Got it.