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The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

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  • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

    Originally posted by HuskyNation View Post
    Of course they'll get beat. Robert Morris is just one guy.
    One dead guy, at that! Unbelievable effort to make the tourney out of that man.
    Bugs Bunny - 96
    Gas House Gorillas - 95

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    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

      I don't remember where this was posted, but is there something explaining the nuances in the new RPI method, I'm trying to implement it.
      BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

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      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

        Not sure if anyone is interested, but CHN allows you to look at how the pairwise would have looked this year if the parameters were left alone (TUC bubble, etc.). I don't recall whether the AHA champ became a TUC once they qualified and I would guess that throws their calculations off at all, but interesting none the less.

        1 Minnesota
        2 Boston College
        3 Union
        4 Mass.-Lowell
        5 Notre Dame
        6 Quinnipiac
        7 Colgate
        8 Wisconsin
        9 St. Cloud State
        10 Providence
        11 Ferris State
        12 Minnesota State
        13 Vermont
        14 North Dakota
        27 Denver
        -- Robert Morris
        __________________________________________________ ____________________

        15 Cornell
        16 Michigan
        17 New Hampshire
        18 Minnesota-Duluth
        19 Northeastern
        BS UMass Lowell 2015
        PhD Georgia Institute of Technology 2020

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        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

          Alright, the new RPI... does it compute the weights all the way through... i.e. is EVERY component weighted throughout? Right now I'm not jiving with USCHO and its unclear where I should test. All I did was provide an adjusted input matrix of wins/ties and games.
          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

          Jerseys I would like to have:
          Skating Friar Jersey
          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
          Army Black Knight logo jersey


          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

            Are home ties worth .4 and .8 games... and road ties worth .6 and 1.2 games?

            If so, that'd explain it and yuck... asymmetry...

            a game is weighted

            0.8 to a home team if it is a win or a tie... road team if it is a loss

            1.0 for all neutral site games

            1.2 to a road team if it is a win or a tie... home team if it is a loss

            ?

            That's quite ugly.

            edit: halle ****ing lujah! I finally got it to work... but its not as CHN stated... I haven't seen a USCHO statement either... a tie is split with 0.6 going to the road team and .4 to the home team.

            Does anybody have the NCAA manual edict on this? Still many things to check, but now I know that part works.
            Last edited by Patman; 03-24-2014, 01:28 AM.
            BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

            Jerseys I would like to have:
            Skating Friar Jersey
            AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
            UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
            Army Black Knight logo jersey


            NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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            • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

              Trying to follow along with you stats guys is exhausting. I was told there would be no math.
              Lowell Forever
              Forever Lowell

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              • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                ^^

                So does that basically mean that say, if Colgate is on the road at Wisconsin, and it goes to OT, it'd be better for them to conserve the tie, and risk losing, whereas if they were home, they're almost better off going for the W (e.g. playing aggresively) than settling for the tie?
                Hockeyenthusiast

                Colgate Class of '03

                -I saw Andy McDonald play at Starr Rink.

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                • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                  The cut line ended up at 14 this year. The first pairwise of the new year nailed the first eight teams in the tournament (though not in order) and scored a 65% on the whole. The first bracketology had Boston College and Minnesota as the 1 seeds in Worcester and St Paul and had Lowell and QU as 2 seeds (though not the region).

                  This was the Sioux Sports pairwise ranking on January 8:

                  1 Minnesota
                  2 Boston College
                  3 St Cloud
                  4 Ferris State
                  5 Union
                  6 Quinnipiac
                  7 Providence
                  8 Mass.-Lowell

                  9 Michigan
                  10 Northeastern
                  11 Clarkson
                  12 Cornell
                  13 New Hampshire
                  14 Vermont
                  15 Wisconsin
                  ---
                  16 MSU-Mankato
                  17 Notre Dame

                  18 Maine
                  19 Miami
                  20 North Dakota
                  21 Yale
                  22 Lake Superior
                  23 Bowling Green
                  24 Colgate
                  25 Ohio State
                  26 Denver
                  27 Minnesota-Duluth
                  28 Brown
                  29 Nebraska-Omaha
                  30 St Lawrence
                  31 Rensselaer
                  32 Western Michigan
                  33 Alaska Anchorage
                  34 Air Force
                  35 Northern Michigan
                  36 Alaska
                  37 Harvard
                  38 Boston University
                  39 Michigan Tech
                  40 Massachusetts
                  41 Mercyhurst
                  42 Bemidji State
                  43 Connecticut
                  44 Bentley
                  45 Michigan State
                  46 Canisius
                  47 Merrimack
                  48 RIT
                  49 Dartmouth
                  50 Penn State
                  51 Colorado College
                  52 Princeton
                  53 Niagara
                  54 Holy Cross
                  55 Robert Morris
                  56 American Int'l
                  57 Alabama-Huntsville
                  58 Sacred Heart
                  59 Army

                  Michigan was the highest-ranked team to fall out of the tournament while #24 Colgate was the lowest-ranked at large team to get invited.

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                  • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                    Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                    ...Michigan was the highest-ranked team to fall out of the tournament while #24 Colgate was the lowest-ranked at large team to get invited.
                    Colgate had 9 of their 13 losses by that cutoff date and Michigan had 8 of their 13 losses after that date. They were teams headed in different directions on that day.
                    "...and that only took six seconds!"

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                    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                      Originally posted by Happy View Post
                      We will know there is a real power change to the East when the committe does two things.

                      1) Put all the Hockey East teams in only 3 regions so they cannot have an all Hockey East FF.

                      2) make sure that the East's best teams end up in a "region of death" so they knock themselves out before the FF.


                      Remember this from January 8th? It looks like the committee did just that:

                      1a) No Hockey East teams in the Midwest Regional
                      1b) No ECAC teams in the West Regional

                      2a) UML and BC both in the Northeast Regional
                      2b) Union and Quinnipiac both in the East Regional.
                      Last edited by Chief Wosinc; 03-25-2014, 01:55 PM. Reason: Correction

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                      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                        Just ran across this site, not sure if the pairwise posters had ever seen it, cool setup, although it is much easier to predict the pro game playoffs.

                        http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
                        YALE HOCKEY
                        2013 National Champions

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                        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                          Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
                          Just ran across this site, not sure if the pairwise posters had ever seen it, cool setup, although it is much easier to predict the pro game playoffs.

                          http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
                          We've seen it in past years. He's tried to do college but all he does is reconcile to his own ratings and doesn't use league play tiebreakers.

                          The pro game is easier because the formats are singular... one system of tie-breakers, etc.
                          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                          Jerseys I would like to have:
                          Skating Friar Jersey
                          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                          Army Black Knight logo jersey


                          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                          Comment


                          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                            Originally posted by Chief Wosinc View Post
                            Remember this from January 8th? It looks like the committee did just that:

                            1a) No Hockey East teams in the Midwest Regional
                            1b) No ECAC teams in the West Regional

                            2a) UML and BC both in the Northeast Regional
                            2b) Union and Quinnipiac both in the East Regional.
                            That observation makes Happy sad.

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