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The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

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  • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    As for the final bracketology, it seems to me that the committee may proceed thus:

    Minnesota will make St Paul a success (never mind how empty it was today).
    BC in Worcester will ensure crowds.
    Union going to Bridgeport helps there a lot.
    So, all we have to worry about for attendance is Cincinnati, and that is a big worry.

    Therefore, I would think it likely that the committee follows serpentine, unless there is a 2 or 3 seed swap that would greatly help Cincinnati. Also, it is possible that they would swap 13 overall for 14 to make the 1/4 game in Cincinnati a better draw if Lowell, or Wisconsin gets the #4 overall.

    The questions would seem to be:
    If Notre Dame is #8overall, it is a big swap to trade 5 for 8 to get NoDame in Cincinnati. I think they would worry less if Notre Dame were 9th. If ND is 9th, it seems a logical swap to put them there, if possible.
    How much draw can you expect from Michigan or Western Michigan or Ferris?
    Can Miami continue their run and get a place in the tourney, where they would automatically play at Cincinnati?

    If Quinn ends up 5th, and Providence 7th, I think the committee would send Quinnipiac to Cincinnati because sending the 7 creates the possibility of regional finals with 2v5 and 4v7, and those are imbalanced, when there is no attendance advantage.
    Union in Bridgeport does not make Bridgeport filled at all. They need more than Union to bring a crowd to Bridgeport
    Quinnipiac University '15
    ECAC Regular Season Champs: 2013, 2015, 2016
    ECAC Championship: 2016
    NCAA Tournament: 2002, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
    NCAA Frozen Four: 2013, 2016
    Yuck Fale : 2013

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    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
      As for the final bracketology, it seems to me that the committee may proceed thus:

      Minnesota will make St Paul a success (never mind how empty it was today).
      BC in Worcester will ensure crowds.
      Union going to Bridgeport helps there a lot.
      So, all we have to worry about for attendance is Cincinnati, and that is a big worry.

      Therefore, I would think it likely that the committee follows serpentine, unless there is a 2 or 3 seed swap that would greatly help Cincinnati. Also, it is possible that they would swap 13 overall for 14 to make the 1/4 game in Cincinnati a better draw if Lowell, or Wisconsin gets the #4 overall.

      The questions would seem to be:
      If Notre Dame is #8overall, it is a big swap to trade 5 for 8 to get NoDame in Cincinnati. I think they would worry less if Notre Dame were 9th. If ND is 9th, it seems a logical swap to put them there, if possible.
      How much draw can you expect from Michigan or Western Michigan or Ferris?
      Can Miami continue their run and get a place in the tourney, where they would automatically play at Cincinnati?

      If Quinn ends up 5th, and Providence 7th, I think the committee would send Quinnipiac to Cincinnati because sending the 7 creates the possibility of regional finals with 2v5 and 4v7, and those are imbalanced, when there is no attendance advantage.
      I understand, but don't know, that Ferris has a good fan base, rowdy too. I don't know what that translates into #'s wise though. The NC$$ committee must be praying to the Gods that somehow Michigan gets in and that they can put them in Cincy. But that's a stretch.
      Go Badgers!

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      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

        Originally posted by Priceless View Post
        Fun observation: No team controls its own destiny for the final #1 seed. Ferris State would seem to, and if all higher seeds win they do, but if Bowling Green upsets Mankato (and Wisconsin upsets Minnesota) the Badgers get the spot. However if Ohio State upsets Minnesota first then the advantage switches back to Ferris. If both the Badgers and Bulldogs stumble, Quinnipiac is up next. If all three fall then Lowell has a chance by winning Hockey East.
        This is why I love the PWR Predictor. Until I read this post, I had no real interest in the BG/Mankato game. And do I root for the Goofs against Ohio State? That's almost impossible for me to do as a Badger :-D
        Go Badgers!

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        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

          Originally posted by TUSCHWI View Post
          I understand, but don't know, that Ferris has a good fan base, rowdy too. I don't know what that translates into #'s wise though. The NC$$ committee must be praying to the Gods that somehow Michigan gets in and that they can put them in Cincy. But that's a stretch.
          Most of the scenario's I've run show Michigan getting in as the 15... am I missing something?

          And I'm not positive the committee would go out of its way to move them out of the 15 and into Cincinatti. Not that I wouldn't like that...
          Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
          Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
          Twitter: @Salzano14


          Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

            Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
            Most of the scenario's I've run show Michigan getting in as the 15... am I missing something?

            And I'm not positive the committee would go out of its way to move them out of the 15 and into Cincinatti. Not that I wouldn't like that...
            ECAC semifinals are going to be big for Michigan. If Quinnipiac and Union both win, then Michigan is still alive. If only one of them win, Michigan may still have a shot, depending on how many other surprises get sprung in the other conferences. If Cornell and Colgate both win tonight, Michigan might well be cooked.

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            • Originally posted by kwik View Post
              ECAC semifinals are going to be big for Michigan. If Quinnipiac and Union both win, then Michigan is still alive. If only one of them win, Michigan may still have a shot, depending on how many other surprises get sprung in the other conferences. If Cornell and Colgate both win tonight, Michigan might well be cooked.
              They can get in with both of those schools winning today providing none of the other conference champs are teams who would not already be in the tournament without winning their conference tournament.

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              • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                Originally posted by kwik View Post
                ECAC semifinals are going to be big for Michigan. If Quinnipiac and Union both win, then Michigan is still alive. If only one of them win, Michigan may still have a shot, depending on how many other surprises get sprung in the other conferences. If Cornell and Colgate both win tonight, Michigan might well be cooked.
                Michigan also needs to root for UML and Ferris State. There are some groups of scenarios where the performance of UML or Ferris is the difference between Michigan being in or out of the tournament.
                Northeastern Huskies Class of 1998 / BS Chemical Engineering
                Notre Dame Fighting Irish Class of 2011 / PhD Chemical Engineering

                But then again, isn't holding forth on an extreme opinion from a position of complete ignorance what these boards are all about? -- from a BigSoccer post by kerrunch

                Britney can't sing. At all. She sounds like a cross between a crackhead chipmunk that had more than a couple beers and a drowning cat. -- DHG on the MTV VMAs

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                • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                  Originally posted by Craig P. View Post
                  Michigan also needs to root for UML and Ferris State. There are some groups of scenarios where the performance of UML or Ferris is the difference between Michigan being in or out of the tournament.
                  It seems clear enough this way: Mankato will now finish ahead of Michigan. The last few spots come down to RPI of various teams, and conference champions.

                  If everything goes chalk, Michigan is in as #14. So, it looks like they have one spot to spare.
                  Things that could take them down:
                  Colgate wins a game
                  Cornell wins a game
                  NoDak wins a game but does not win the NCHC (this take Michigan down because of an auto-bid to NCHC)
                  New Hampshire wins HEA championship
                  Anchorage wins 2 games and wins WCHA (this is my favorite - Seawolves in the big tourney would be great)

                  However, Anchorage winning somehow enables Northeastern to slide by Michigan, so Anchorage winning WCHA, when everything else is chalk takes Michigan out.

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                  • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                    Can someone give me a complete description of what would need to happen for Michigan to sneak into the tournament? Everything.
                    ---
                    National Champions: 1948, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1996, 1998
                    Frozen Four: 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1964, 1977, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2011, 2018
                    19 Conference Championships
                    10 Conference Tournament Championships
                    2 Hobey Baker Winners


                    @UMichWD on Twitter

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                    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                      However, Anchorage winning somehow enables Northeastern to slide by Michigan, so Anchorage winning WCHA, when everything else is chalk takes Michigan out.
                      In this case, "somehow" is that the two teams are close together in RPI, Michigan played Ferris State this season, and NU did not. Hence, a loss by Ferris State hurts Michigan's opct part of RPI (and if there are any hard cutoffs, it may hurt there as well), and Michigan slides behind NU in RPI.

                      The same thing can happen with UML losing to Notre Dame, though not with UML beating ND and losing in the final.
                      Northeastern Huskies Class of 1998 / BS Chemical Engineering
                      Notre Dame Fighting Irish Class of 2011 / PhD Chemical Engineering

                      But then again, isn't holding forth on an extreme opinion from a position of complete ignorance what these boards are all about? -- from a BigSoccer post by kerrunch

                      Britney can't sing. At all. She sounds like a cross between a crackhead chipmunk that had more than a couple beers and a drowning cat. -- DHG on the MTV VMAs

                      Comment


                      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                        OK, the pecking order for 1 seed is established:

                        If Ferris State wins tonight and tomorrow, they are the last 1 seed.
                        If they stumble, Wisconsin is 1 seed with a win the B1G title game.
                        If they also lose, Quinnipiac is next up and will take the top spot with an ECAC title.
                        If they also lose, Lowell takes the last top seed with a Hockey East title.
                        If everyone loses it is back to Ferris.

                        Also, if you're on Twitter, be careful whom you listen to about the outcomes of various games. There are people out there who don't know but think they do. If you have a question, either do the simulation yourself or ask here. For example, Providence has NOT locked up a spot with Cornell's loss.

                        ETA: With UAA's loss, Vermont has now locked up a bid. Providence could still miss.
                        Last edited by Priceless; 03-21-2014, 09:24 PM.

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                        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                          Haven't run the scenario, but I think Vermont is still vulnerable. Cutline is 14. It goes to 12 if UNH and OSU win. Let Colgate and NoDak win also, and I think Vermont might be out.

                          How does Prov miss now?

                          Edit. Never mind. That is the very scenario that gets Providence out. Vermont must win their compare in spite of losing RPI.
                          Last edited by Numbers; 03-21-2014, 10:18 PM.

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                          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            Haven't run the scenario, but I think Vermont is still vulnerable. Cutline is 14. It goes to 12 if UNH and OSU win. Let Colgate and NoDak win also, and I think Vermont might be out.

                            How does Prov miss now?

                            Looks like the UND loss has them at a lock. I ran what I think are all the scenarios and they come in at 11 to 13 (even if all the lower seeds win they are 12)

                            Comment


                            • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                              Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                              Haven't run the scenario, but I think Vermont is still vulnerable. Cutline is 14. It goes to 12 if UNH and OSU win. Let Colgate and NoDak win also, and I think Vermont might be out.

                              How does Prov miss now?
                              Prov and VT each still miss about 1/10 remaining scenarios. Not clinched, but close.
                              Last edited by JimDahl; 03-21-2014, 10:22 PM.

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                              • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                                What about Sioux?
                                Go Pioneers!

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