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The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

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  • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

    Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
    That's why I qualified my statement about no upset tournament winners in the other 4 conferences, and the fact that I had only tried out a few scenarios. Looks like for the Sioux to make it in with just 1 win (either on Friday or Saturday) they need:


    1) Penn State over Michigan;
    2) Bowling Green over Mankato; OR
    3) QU vs Union in ECAC title game.

    PLUS

    A)Minny or Wisconsin win the B1G (or Michigan in scenario 2 or 3)
    B) Ferris State win WCHA (or Mankato in scenarios 1 and 3)
    C) Anyone but UNH to win Hockey East; AND
    D) Either QU OR Union to win on Friday

    Or, Sioux could just win both games and not have to worry about any of this

    EDIT:

    Also, for each additional scenario from 1-3 that happens, you can eliminate one of the A-D Pluses. For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, and goes on to win the B1G (eliminating Plus A), but Mankato falls to Bowling Green (and Pluses B-D remain) then North Dakota still advances with 1 win. If all 3 Scenarios happen (i.e. 1-3 all happen), then only one of the A-C pluses need to happen (because if Scenario 3 happens, Plus D will have already happened). For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, Bowling Green beats Mankato, and QU and Union advance to the ECAC Title game, then all the Sioux need are either a New Hampshire loss (either Friday or Saturday), Ferris State winning the WCHA, OR Minnesota or Wisconsin winning the B1G ten (obviously still coupled with a Sioux win on EITHER Friday or Saturday).

    I was not a big fan of the Third Place game addition to the NCHC (I'm still not), but it does look like it gives the Sioux another path to the NCAA Tournament. Without the consolation game, the Sioux would be almost certainly out with a loss on Friday.
    Not sure why you're including that first part. I fairly easily found NoDak in without a single one of those first three. From the top down in USCHO's predictor:

    Robert Morris/Mercyhurst/Mercyhurst
    Michigan/MSU/Winsconsin/MN/MN (whether MN or Wisco wins the championship is irrelevant here)
    Colgate/Cornell/Cornell
    UNH/Notre Dame/Notre Dame (you really don't want UNH to win here)
    WMU/NoDak/WMU (Denver winning consolation)
    Mankato/Ferris/ Either

    This puts NoDak at a tie for 13 and the last team in. If you lose the NCHC championship, you really want it to be to WMU, NOT Denver.

    Comment


    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
      Roughly, I think the top 10 are in. The only threat is to StCloud if Michigan loses the final to OSU/MSU and there are upsets everywhere.
      I couldn't work them out going through about 20 different unfavorable scenarios. I think it's safe to say they're safely in.
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      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

        Originally posted by Priceless View Post
        I'm not here. I'm still asleep.

        In:
        Minnesota (#1 overall, 1 seed in St Paul)
        Boston College (1 seed in Worcester)
        Union (1 seed in Bridgeport)
        There are a lot of scenarios where QU can end up tied with Union at #3 in the PWR. Union would still have a better RPI though and would thus win the tie-breaker. Do you think the committee would consider putting Quinnipiac in Bridgeport for attendance reasons? Bridgeport is only 20 miles down the road from Quinnipiac and 150 miles from Union.
        LET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA

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        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

          I'm still doing a little quality control on my tournament probabilities, but thought I'd share my first pass at PWR possibilities and crowd source some quality control.

          Anyone find any PWR outcomes outside these ranges (for teams that can make the tournament at large):
          #1 Minnesota 1
          #2 BC 2-3
          #3 Union 2-3
          #4 Ferris State 4-8
          #5 Wisconsin 4-9
          #6 QU 4-10
          #7 Mass.-Lowell 4-10
          #8 Notre Dame 4-10
          #9 Providence 4-15
          #10 St Cloud 8-13
          #11 Michigan 6-18
          #12 Mankato 9-20
          #13 North Dakota 10-20
          #14 Vermont 10-16
          #15 Colgate 9-19
          #16 Cornell 9-19
          #17 New Hampshire 12-22 (needs conference tournament)
          #18 Northeastern 12-19

          Comment


          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

            Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
            I'm still doing a little quality control on my tournament probabilities, but thought I'd share my first pass at PWR possibilities and crowd source some quality control.

            Anyone find any PWR outcomes outside these ranges (for teams that can make the tournament at large):
            #1 Minnesota 1
            #2 BC 2-3
            #3 Union 2-3
            #4 Ferris State 4-8
            #5 Wisconsin 4-9
            #6 QU 4-10
            #7 Mass.-Lowell 4-10
            #8 Notre Dame 4-10
            #9 Providence 4-15
            #10 St Cloud 8-13
            #11 Michigan 6-18
            #12 Mankato 9-20
            #13 North Dakota 10-20
            #14 Vermont 10-16
            #15 Colgate 9-19
            #16 Cornell 9-19
            #17 New Hampshire 12-22 (needs conference tournament)
            #18 Northeastern 12-19
            I know I haven't seen anything outside those ranges. In the scenarios I've run, I haven't seen BC anything other than 2, and Union at 3 (sometimes tied for 3rd, but winning the RPI tiebreaker) I assume for the 4-x that you have listed are including teams that come up tied for 3rd with Union but lose the RPI?

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            • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

              Originally posted by Steve_MN View Post
              I assume for the 4-x that you have listed are including teams that come up tied for 3rd with Union but lose the RPI?
              Yep, it's been a long time since anyone asserted that ties weren't broken with RPI, so I just make it part of the formula these days.

              Comment


              • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                Yep, it's been a long time since anyone asserted that ties weren't broken with RPI, so I just make it part of the formula these days.
                Certainly wasn't disagreeing, but wanted to make sure that's what you meant.

                Do you have an example of Union sliding into the #2 seed and BC dropping to 3?

                Comment


                • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                  Originally posted by The Exiled One View Post
                  I couldn't work them out going through about 20 different unfavorable scenarios. I think it's safe to say they're safely in.
                  St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


                  Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
                  Ohio State defeats Michigan
                  Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
                  New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
                  Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
                  Western Michigan defeats Miami
                  Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

                  Comment


                  • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                    Originally posted by ihlatrebon View Post
                    St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


                    Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
                    Ohio State defeats Michigan
                    Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
                    New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
                    Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
                    Western Michigan defeats Miami
                    Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage
                    " so you saying theirs a chance "

                    Comment


                    • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                      Originally posted by ihlatrebon View Post
                      St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


                      Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
                      Ohio State defeats Michigan
                      Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
                      New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
                      Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
                      Western Michigan defeats Miami
                      Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage
                      No they're not. They wind up tied 11th PWR in that scenario.
                      'Eavesdropped the BC forum in USCHO. A range of intellects over there. Mostly gentlemen, but a couple of coarse imbeciles' - academic_index, a Brown fan

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                      • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                        Originally posted by FiveHole12 View Post
                        No they're not. They wind up tied 11th PWR in that scenario.
                        which side of the tie?
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                        • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                          Originally posted by Patman View Post
                          which side of the tie?
                          Interesting. Yes, this puts St Cloud tied for 11th with Michigan, but losing the RPI by .0002, with 11 being the cutoff

                          Comment


                          • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                            Originally posted by ihlatrebon View Post
                            St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


                            Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
                            Ohio State defeats Michigan
                            Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
                            New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
                            Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
                            Western Michigan defeats Miami
                            Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage
                            Well I'll be. I'm not even mad, that's amazing! Good work finding this.

                            For obvious reasons, I'm not really sweating this scenario, but I appreciate the effort that went into it!
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                            • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                              Originally posted by Patman View Post
                              which side of the tie?
                              Ahhh... now I see. All the auto bids knock them out with the cutoff at 11.
                              I'm going back to reading this thread, not thinking it.
                              'Eavesdropped the BC forum in USCHO. A range of intellects over there. Mostly gentlemen, but a couple of coarse imbeciles' - academic_index, a Brown fan

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                              • Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

                                Anyone else getting different results from USCHO and CHN, or does everyone here just use USCHO?

                                In trying to validate my results against their calculators, I get different results from their calculators. Seems to be home vs neutral issue.

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