The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[Steve_MN]

No Maine? even with a sweep and vermont losing this weekend

Given that Maine is currently in a tie for 17th in the PWR with Yale, no.

[BBfan13]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

yaaaa valid point, still a good season for them though

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

No Maine? even with a sweep and vermont losing this weekend

Bracketology is based on current pairwise, not future possibilities.

[Slash01]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

To be clear, I really don't know what effect it's having. I'd love to see a version of the PWR without the weighting at all (but with the bonus pts and no TUCliff) to see how much, if any, difference there is.

And you're definitely right that it's certainly possible that it's holding Wisconsin back instead of propping them up. My best guess is that the the effect is very minor. Taking a closer look (and putting the knowledge of their road record out of my mind that raised the question in the first palce) I see that Wisconsin is currently 6th in RPI/PWR, 8th in Win Percentage and 7th in KRACH, so, realistically, any RPI/PWR in the 6-8 range would seem to be the proper place, regardless of weighting, etc.

The PWR seems to go through contortions each year to try balance out .... what it tries to balance out. The pairwise is respectable by the end of the season, as a statistical tool. In about 5 or 10 years, it will all evolve mathematically to a point close to Ken's statistical formulae.

[LTsatch]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

This week's USCHO.com brackets. My thoughts are the West Regional is a brutal region with Minnesota, Wisconsin, and two teams gaining steam in North Dakota and Colgate. BC has the easiest region in the East. Northeast regional is a toss up. I think any of those 4 teams could win it. Midwest bracket is not bad either. Likely a Ferris vs. St. Cloud final as Michigan is fading quickly.

http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/20...west-regional/

Cornell and Lowell are no patsies, both teams are quirky, but if they get on a roll, watch out.

[QUAlum2004]

Cornell and Lowell are no patsies, both teams are quirky, but if they get on a roll, watch out.

The way BC is playing they should easily get to Philadelphia. I don't think Lowell or Cornell will beat them. Just my opinion.

[manurespreader]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The way things are evolving there is almost no reason to even have regionals. Just take the conference champions and send them.
I know... but you get my point.
I'd much prefer to see an accomplished western team go east than play another western team, I've got that T shirt.. Same for the east. Let's see mass lowell out west, or some other highly ranked, but not quite number one school.

[Dutchman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The way things are evolving there is almost no reason to even have regionals. Just take the conference champions and send them.
I know... but you get my point.
I'd much prefer to see an accomplished western team go east than play another western team, I've got that T shirt.. Same for the east. Let's see mass lowell out west, or some other highly ranked, but not quite number one school.

Agree 100%

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

And, the latest in calculation controversy. I know that all the major sites have agreed to use the same formulation. However, I have noticed that our very own RHamilton has persisted in an alternative view.

And, Reilly's would have Minnesota State rather than Northeastern in the field. That is a big change, no?

Also, could JimDahl please post a convenient description of his math? I am still a little confused by the way that the weighting for home/road and/or win/loss applies to the SoS portion of the RPI calculation for each game.

Thanks.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 11 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament.

Of the 156 teams, a whopping 141 (90.4%) that qualified as of the final weekend of February have made the eventual field. No teams that were ranked in the top 7 after February dropped out of the eventual field. Only Denver in 2007 and Mankato in 2008 have fallen out of the top 11. The state of Michigan has taken it on the chin, as Western Michigan (2013), Northern Michigan (2012) and Michigan State (2010) have joined Duluth (2008) and Dartmouth (2005) as 12-seeds who have missed the tournament. Overall, 38 of the 44 (81.8%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.

In 2004, 2006 and 2011 the field matched the pairwise rankings from the end of February perfectly.

The 2009 Air Force, 2010 Michigan and 2013 Union and Wisconsin teams were ranked 20th, 25th, 21st and 27th but came all the way back to earn a bid (granted, they were all autobids, but they were ranked high enough to make the field anyway). Aside from them, the lowest-ranked teams to make the field are #18 Colgate (2005) and eventual national champion Michigan State (2007).


There is one game left this weekend. The top 11 are set no matter what happens:

1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Union
4 St. Cloud State
5 Wisconsin
6 Ferris State
7 Quinnipiac
8 Mass.-Lowell
9 North Dakota
10 Notre Dame
11 Providence

With Michigan win:
12 Michigan
13 Cornell
14 Vermont
15 Northeastern
--
16 Colgate
17 Minnesota State
18 Minnesota-Duluth

Scenario A:

Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)	Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)	
Union	3		Boston College	2	St Cloud	4	Minnesota	1
Ferris State	6	Quinnipiac	7	Wisconsin	5	Lowell	8
Providence	11	Michigan	12	Notre Dame	10	North Dakota	9
Northeastern	15	Cornell	13		Vermont	14		Mercyhurst	16

Northeastern and Vermont are interchangeable.
Michigan and Notre Dame are switched to avoid Wisconsin-Michigan matchup.

[Numbers]

Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 11 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament.

Of the 156 teams, a whopping 141 (90.4%) that qualified as of the final weekend of February have made the eventual field. No teams that were ranked in the top 7 after February dropped out of the eventual field. Only Denver in 2007 and Mankato in 2008 have fallen out of the top 11. The state of Michigan has taken it on the chin, as Western Michigan (2013), Northern Michigan (2012) and Michigan State (2010) have joined Duluth (2008) and Dartmouth (2005) as 12-seeds who have missed the tournament. Overall, 38 of the 44 (81.8%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.

In 2004, 2006 and 2011 the field matched the pairwise rankings from the end of February perfectly.

The 2009 Air Force, 2010 Michigan and 2013 Union and Wisconsin teams were ranked 20th, 25th, 21st and 27th but came all the way back to earn a bid (granted, they were all autobids, but they were ranked high enough to make the field anyway). Aside from them, the lowest-ranked teams to make the field are #18 Colgate (2005) and eventual national champion Michigan State (2007).


There is one game left this weekend. The top 11 are set no matter what happens:

1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Union
4 St. Cloud State
5 Wisconsin
6 Ferris State
7 Quinnipiac
8 Mass.-Lowell
9 North Dakota
10 Notre Dame
11 Providence

With Michigan win:
12 Michigan
13 Cornell
14 Vermont
15 Northeastern
--
16 Colgate
17 Minnesota State
18 Minnesota-Duluth

With Ohio State win:
12 Cornell
13 Vermont
14 Northeastern
15 Colgate
--
16 Minnesota State
17 Minnesota-Duluth
18 Michigan
19 Ohio State

A tie:
12 Cornell
13 Vermont
14 Northeastern
15 Michigan
--
16 Colgate
17 Minnesota State
18 Minnesota-Duluth

Priceless.. What are you using to do the prediction in what happens after the game today? Did you find a simulator?

[unh1982]

Priceless.. What are you using to do the prediction in what happens after the game today? Did you find a simulator?

and I ask every year when does the famous NCAA predicter roll out.

[Numbers]

and I ask every year when does the famous NCAA predicter roll out.

Right before conference championship weekend.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless.. What are you using to do the prediction in what happens after the game today? Did you find a simulator?

The customize tool on CHN. It is really only useful for predicting one game - each time it resets back to default and you would have to reenter every single game again. I don't recommend using it for the 21 games next Friday night as you'd be simming all day.

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Two questions:

1. Is there any chance Union can catch Minnesota or BC?

2. There's been a lot of discussion about this on the Union thread but I figured I'd ask here as well. If Yale manages to get into the tournament as a #4 seed (by getting the auto-bid) and Union is still a #1 seed, would Union definitely be bumped out of Bridgeport to head out west because Yale is the host school?