The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

It's 45 minutes to drive from Providence to Worcester and 2 hours from Providence to Bridgeport.

Thanks for the input.

Could you compare the following total ideas for me? Which is better for attendance?

1) Providence v Cornell in BRIDGEPORT; St Cloud v Lowell in WORCESTER
2) Northeastern v Cornell in BRIDGEPORT; St Cloud v Lowell in WORCESTER
3) Providence v Cornell in WORCESTER; St Cloud v Lowell in BRIDGEPORT
4) Northeastern v Cornell in WORCESTER; St Cloud v Lowell in BRIDGEPORT

It's not just "Where does Providence draw best?" It's "Where does everything together draw best?"

Thanks again.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

It's 45 minutes to drive from Providence to Worcester and 2 hours from Providence to Bridgeport.

Not to mention both have pretty major highways going between the two roads.

[LynahFan]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Thanks for the input.

Could you compare the following total ideas for me? Which is better for attendance?

1) Providence v Cornell in BRIDGEPORT; St Cloud v Lowell in WORCESTER
2) Northeastern v Cornell in BRIDGEPORT; St Cloud v Lowell in WORCESTER
3) Providence v Cornell in WORCESTER; St Cloud v Lowell in BRIDGEPORT
4) Northeastern v Cornell in WORCESTER; St Cloud v Lowell in BRIDGEPORT

It's not just "Where does Providence draw best?" It's "Where does everything together draw best?"

Thanks again.

Maximizing overall attendance is only one consideration - the NCAA would probably rather have 4K at each regional rather than 8K at one and 2K at the other.

Having said that, my guess is that Cornell and St. Cloud draw equally in both places. I can't speak intelligently about the traveling bases of those 3 HEA schools, but since this is the internet and intelligence is not required, I'll hazard a guess that the most desirable attendance scenario would be Providence in Bridgeport and Northeastern/Lowell in Worcester.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Maximizing overall attendance is only one consideration - the NCAA would probably rather have 4K at each regional rather than 8K at one and 2K at the other.

Having said that, my guess is that Cornell and St. Cloud draw equally in both places. I can't speak intelligently about the traveling bases of those 3 HEA schools, but since this is the internet and intelligence is not required, I'll hazard a guess that the most desirable attendance scenario would be Providence in Bridgeport and Northeastern/Lowell in Worcester.

Thanks Lynah. I like the way you described the hope of the NCAA for attendance. I was lacking the words to describe that clearly in my post.

And, as you can see, the current situation, if it were what the committee faced, would really not depend on St Cloud at all. Few SCSU fans would make the trip east so, the real balance is:

BC will draw great to Worcester, so we might worry about the other game, or the potential of a no-crowd final if BC were defeated in the semi. Lowell would be a good pull here, of course.

However, the Bridgeport region might have issues. Does Quinn bring fans? What about the other game there? I would assume Cornell brings a good fan base ("travels well"). Then, we are faced with this choice:

Since the games have to stay the way they are because of conference affiliation: Do Providence and Cornell draw as well to Bridgeport at Lowell would alone? And, in Worcester, Does Lowell draw there as well as Providence and Cornell would together?

And, phrased like that, I think I have answered my own questions. It seems pretty clear that StCloud/Lowell should be in Worcester and Providence/Cornell in Bridgeport.

Thanks again everyone.

[QUAlum2004]

Thanks Lynah. I like the way you described the hope of the NCAA for attendance. I was lacking the words to describe that clearly in my post.

And, as you can see, the current situation, if it were what the committee faced, would really not depend on St Cloud at all. Few SCSU fans would make the trip east so, the real balance is:

BC will draw great to Worcester, so we might worry about the other game, or the potential of a no-crowd final if BC were defeated in the semi. Lowell would be a good pull here, of course.

However, the Bridgeport region might have issues. Does Quinn bring fans? What about the other game there? I would assume Cornell brings a good fan base ("travels well"). Then, we are faced with this choice:

Since the games have to stay the way they are because of conference affiliation: Do Providence and Cornell draw as well to Bridgeport at Lowell would alone? And, in Worcester, Does Lowell draw there as well as Providence and Cornell would together?

And, phrased like that, I think I have answered my own questions. It seems pretty clear that StCloud/Lowell should be in Worcester and Providence/Cornell in Bridgeport.

Thanks again everyone.

Quinnipiac is 30 minutes from Bridgeport. They would send a lot of fans there along with alumni in the area. They could easily carry that region in attendence should get go all the to the regional final. They easily had to biggest support in pittsburgh at the frozen four last year.

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

	Total Apps	Current Programs	Apps / Program	Apps/Program / Year	Conf. Apps / Year	2014 Proj. Apps	2014 Proj. Apps/Program
B1G	30	6	5.00	0.50	3	3	0.50
NCHC	43	8	5.38	0.54	4.3	1	0.13
WCHA	10	10	1.00	0.10	1	1	0.10
HE	41	11	3.73	0.37	4.1	5	0.45
ECAC	23	12	1.92	0.19	2.3	5	0.42
AHA	13	12	1.08	0.11	1.3	1	0.08

Update:

	Total Apps	Current Programs	Apps / Program	Apps/Program / Year	Conf. Apps / Year	2014 Proj. Apps	2014 Proj. Apps/Program
B1G	30	6	5.00	0.50	3	3	0.50
NCHC	43	8	5.38	0.54	4.3	2	0.25
WCHA	10	10	1.00	0.10	1	1	0.10
HE	41	11	3.73	0.37	4.1	5	0.45
ECAC	23	12	1.92	0.19	2.3	4	0.33
AHA	13	12	1.08	0.11	1.3	1	0.08

In my observations I made the last time I made this chart, I think I might have under-estimated how volatile the PWR are at this stage in the season. But I'll maintain that I do expect the "Appearances per Program" numbers (the final column and the "Appearances per Program per Year" column in the middle) to be at least in the same ballpark. The only caveat being that an improving ECAC (or maybe the nWCHA- if they can pull some upsets) are likely to steal a spot or two from someone... and that someone seems to be the under-performing NCHC, which has added an extra at-large spot this week and there is still plenty of time left for the teams in the top 25 of RPI to try to make a move for those last bids.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Update:

	Total Apps	Current Programs	Apps / Program	Apps/Program / Year	Conf. Apps / Year	2014 Proj. Apps	2014 Proj. Apps/Program
B1G	30	6	5.00	0.50	3	3	0.50
NCHC	43	8	5.38	0.54	4.3	2	0.25
WCHA	10	10	1.00	0.10	1	1	0.10
HE	41	11	3.73	0.37	4.1	5	0.45
ECAC	23	12	1.92	0.19	2.3	4	0.33
AHA	13	12	1.08	0.11	1.3	1	0.08

In my observations I made the last time I made this chart, I think I might have under-estimated how volatile the PWR are at this stage in the season. But I'll maintain that I do expect the "Appearances per Program" numbers (the final column and the "Appearances per Program per Year" column in the middle) to be at least in the same ballpark. The only caveat being that an improving ECAC (or maybe the nWCHA- if they can pull some upsets) are likely to steal a spot or two from someone... and that someone seems to be the under-performing NCHC, which has added an extra at-large spot this week and there is still plenty of time left for the teams in the top 25 of RPI to try to make a move for those last bids.

PWR very volatile. I agree. We don't have much inherent feel for this yet, because the definition of RPI has changed so much. In previous years, the volatility was due to TUC considerations. Now, it seems to me that the volatility is due to the QWB. Obviously, it is on a sliding scale, so it's not like someone falls off a cliff. But, when so many teams are crammed tightly together in the raw RPI, a few results can change someone else'e bonus by a lot.

Also, I think that the whole country is more on par this year than before. That is only my impression, no numbers to back it up. But, it seems like one weekend can change lots of things near the bubble, especially.

So, my prediction is still the same. Over the course of the next 5 or 6 weeks, the all-conference play will tend to make it more possible for NCHC and WCHA teams to go on a run of wins. And, ECAC and HEA the opposite. However, as I see it now, I think my prediction would go like this:

I believe that 5 HE teams will end up in the top 15 of PWR at the end of the year, but the last will be the 15th team (I know that is a strong prediction, but I really think it will go that way). I believe that Mich, Wisc and Minn will all be among the top 15. That leaves 7 spots. I think that any WCHA team besides Ferris has too far to go - too many teams to jump over (I was not anticipating that Mankato would lose twice last weekend before). So, before the conference tourneys, there will be 1 WCHA team in the field. That leaves 6 spots. It will be either: 3ECAC/3NCHC or 4ECAC/2NCHC among those 6 teams. Then, however, I predict an upset in the WCHA. So, the last HE team falls off. That would give us a field of 4HEA, 3 B10, 2 WCHA, 1 AHA, and those 6 from the ECAC and NCHC. At this point all bets are off. Likely no upsets in B10 or HEA, but plenty chance in the other conferences. And, who knows who would be 14th, and get knocked off.......

[sterlippo1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Maximizing overall attendance is only one consideration - the NCAA would probably rather have 4K at each regional rather than 8K at one and 2K at the other.
.

4 + 4 = 8 vs 8 + 2 +10..............i get what you're saying but to the NC$$ 10 >8

[LynahFan]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

4 + 4 = 8 vs 8 + 2 +10..............i get what you're saying but to the NC$$ 10 >8

I really don't think so. Remember, each regional has a host who puts up the $$$ to host and guarantees the NCAA a particular amount of revenue out of the event. If the NCAA were to start shifting teams around to get "8+2" in order to maximize total attendance, they would really screw over one of the host schools, so schools would be even more leery of bidding than they are today. Why should your school bust its hump to host a regional if the NCAA is going to turn around and saddle you with 4 sisters of the poor from the opposite side of the country? I really think the NCAA would prefer decent attendance at each regional even if it costs a few butts in seats overall.

[sterlippo1]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I really don't think so. Remember, each regional has a host who puts up the $$$ to host and guarantees the NCAA a particular amount of revenue out of the event. If the NCAA were to start shifting teams around to get "8+2" in order to maximize total attendance, they would really screw over one of the host schools, so schools would be even more leery of bidding than they are today. Why should your school bust its hump to host a regional if the NCAA is going to turn around and saddle you with 4 sisters of the poor from the opposite side of the country? I really think the NCAA would prefer decent attendance at each regional even if it costs a few butts in seats overall.

perhaps you're right........there does seem to be one regional that absolutely is a ghost town anyway no matter how much they try to pair them up for attendance purposes

[DoorCtyBadger]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I really don't think so. Remember, each regional has a host who puts up the $$$ to host and guarantees the NCAA a particular amount of revenue out of the event. If the NCAA were to start shifting teams around to get "8+2" in order to maximize total attendance, they would really screw over one of the host schools, so schools would be even more leery of bidding than they are today. Why should your school bust its hump to host a regional if the NCAA is going to turn around and saddle you with 4 sisters of the poor from the opposite side of the country? I really think the NCAA would prefer decent attendance at each regional even if it costs a few butts in seats overall.

this what they did in green bay a few years ago.....cornell, ferris state, Denver and Michigan...none of them traveling hockey schools....the only good news was you could pretty much have sat anywhere you wanted to

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

this what they did in green bay a few years ago.....cornell, ferris state, Denver and Michigan...none of them traveling hockey schools....the only good news was you could pretty much have sat anywhere you wanted to

Michigan traveled okay for that one (I mean... why wouldn't they? It's not that far and it's a good sized fanbase).

Even with decent attendance, short of UW making the field, there was always going to be some seats available at the Resch. It does seat well over 8,500.

[wolverineTrumpet]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Michigan traveled okay for that one (I mean... why wouldn't they? It's not that far and it's a good sized fanbase).

Even with decent attendance, short of UW making the field, there was always going to be some seats available at the Resch. It does seat well over 8,500.

Actually, Ferris traveled decent for that one. They actually brought a few buses from Big Rapids with fans and students. Now, granted, 100 people still makes for an empty 8,500 seat arena.

[LTsatch]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The advantage of the Bridgeport venue is it's size which makes the place never really look empty. Although the city itself is not the best place to travel to, you usually have a few thousand local hockey nuts who show up just to see some good hockey. Sad to see the regional departing next year. Anyone know the reasoning for not having the format change to Saturday-Sunday? I would think that would increase attendance instantly. I guess rest between games and having to stay over until Monday would be two negatives to that theory.

[QUAlum2004]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The advantage of the Bridgeport venue is it's size which makes the place never really look empty. Although the city itself is not the best place to travel to, you usually have a few thousand local hockey nuts who show up just to see some good hockey. Sad to see the regional departing next year. Anyone know the reasoning for not having the format change to Saturday-Sunday? I would think that would increase attendance instantly. I guess rest between games and having to stay over until Monday would be two negatives to that theory.

Probably for TV purposes. They like to show all the regional finals on TV along with some of the regional semifinal games. Likely can't be done if all the games are Saturday-Sunday.