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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by goblue78 View Post
    Sure, but all of those fans can comfort themselves with the fact that every team is still in it.... and not just in the sense that anybody can still win in the conference playoffs and get in. Virtually every non-AHA team still has plenty of time to get in through the front door... certainly every team within, say three games of .500. That's why November PWR is REALLY meaningless. It's not that these games don't count... they definitely do. It's that it's impossible to tell how much they count until you know what happens in the rest of the season.
    I know they aren't very meaningful, but there are going to be fluctuations - Northeastern going from 11 to the 30's in one week. One of the things I am watching is whether the rankings will solidify as time passes or if the fluctuations continue. This is a new way of calculating RPI and Pairwise.

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  • goblue78
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by Priceless View Post
    These are the types of things that are going to drive fans mad.

    Wisconsin doesn't play.
    Drops from 8 to 16 in raw RPI.
    BU beats and ties North Dakota.
    Falls from #18 to #34 because they beat Wisconsin.
    Sure, but all of those fans can comfort themselves with the fact that every team is still in it.... and not just in the sense that anybody can still win in the conference playoffs and get in. Virtually every non-AHA team still has plenty of time to get in through the front door... certainly every team within, say three games of .500. That's why November PWR is REALLY meaningless. It's not that these games don't count... they definitely do. It's that it's impossible to tell how much they count until you know what happens in the rest of the season.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    You mean 28 to 34? There's no way they were at 18.
    I do the Hockey East pairwise every week. But I found my mistake...it was UHN at 18 last week, not BU.

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  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by Priceless View Post
    These are the types of things that are going to drive fans mad.

    Wisconsin doesn't play.
    Drops from 8 to 16 in raw RPI.
    BU beats and ties North Dakota.
    Falls from #18 to #34 because they beat Wisconsin.
    You mean 28 to 34? There's no way they were at 18.

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  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Might as well make a Sunday games update:

    5.00 Minnesota
    4.75 Michigan
    4.50 Ferris State
    4.25 St. Cloud State
    4.00 Providence
    3.75 Quinnipiac
    3.50 Cornell
    3.25 Boston College
    3.00 LSSU
    2.75 Clarkson
    2.50 Minnesota Duluth
    2.25 Notre Dame
    2.00 Minnesota State Mankato
    1.75 UMASS Lowell
    1.50 Yale
    1.25 Wisconsin
    1.00 Bowling Green
    0.75 New Hampshire
    0.50 Miami
    0.25 Union

    And the tournament field:

    Minnesota
    Michigan
    Providence
    Ferris State

    St. Cloud State
    Quinnipiac
    Boston College
    Cornell

    LSSU
    Minnesota Duluth
    UMASS Lowell
    Notre Dame

    Clarkson
    Yale
    Wisconsin
    AHA Champ (37 - Air Force)

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    These are the types of things that are going to drive fans mad.

    Wisconsin doesn't play.
    Drops from 8 to 16 in raw RPI.
    BU beats and ties North Dakota.
    Falls from #18 to #34 because they beat Wisconsin.

    Leave a comment:


  • Numbers
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    They lost some QWB points, because remember that the factor I post is multiplied by the weighted win rate, and then total of those is divided by the team's potential number of weighted win% points, but that's going to happen whenever you play a non-quality team. Not to mention, UMASS Lowell took a hit, and that dropped the QWB.
    Understood, FlagDude. I was trying to point out the concept that losing to a bottom team hurts because your RatingsPI takes a huge hit on your own part.

    Lost QWB points due to the number of games played is just a fact of scheduling (yes, I know that defeating a very bottom team in totally neutral, because the game essentially doesn't count).

    Lost QWB points because some other team you defeated loses is also a fact of life. In some cases, a team you defeated earlier might sweep the #1 team, and then move up, giving you more QWB points that you didn't earn yourself.

    Lost Ratings PI points because you lost to a team with a low win% is on yourself, for the most part.

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  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    And, the horrible-ness of the loss is compounded by how much your own RatingsPI suffers from it. Own win% goes down a lot from 12-1-1 to 12-2-1, and Princeton not being a great power makes the effect on RatingsPI even worse.

    If I understand this QWB part right, Quinn actually lost 0 QWB points from not beating Princeton. The real problem is as above - lose to a bottom team and your RatingsPI takes a huge hit.
    They lost some QWB points, because remember that the factor I post is multiplied by the weighted win rate, and then total of those is divided by the team's potential number of weighted win% points, but that's going to happen whenever you play a non-quality team. Not to mention, UMASS Lowell took a hit, and that dropped the QWB.

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  • Patman
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    You mean the 9-12 band regional?
    well, yes

    Misread

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  • Numbers
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by QUAlum2004 View Post
    Still it is a horrible loss either way. Losing quality wins bonus points hurts especially when the loss is to a bottom feeder team.
    And, the horrible-ness of the loss is compounded by how much your own RatingsPI suffers from it. Own win% goes down a lot from 12-1-1 to 12-2-1, and Princeton not being a great power makes the effect on RatingsPI even worse.

    If I understand this QWB part right, Quinn actually lost 0 QWB points from not beating Princeton. The real problem is as above - lose to a bottom team and your RatingsPI takes a huge hit.

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  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by QUAlum2004 View Post
    Still it is a horrible loss either way. Losing quality wins bonus points hurts especially when the loss is to a bottom feeder team.
    Actually, depending on who beats or ties you, it's actually not all that bad. What I posted is not how many you received, but the rate at which other teams may receive if they play and beat or tie you. Thus far, you have 0.62 Quality Wins Bonus points, and these are from games vs. UMASS Lowell, Cornell, and Yale. Remember that a tie is half a win and half a loss, so you still get some points in there.

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  • QUAlum2004
    replied
    Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    That's just Quality Wins Bonus, not your RatingsPI. Your RatingsPI is currently at 59.60 with removals of Bentley, both Holy Cross games, Dartmouth, and the Princeton game from Friday. Beating Providence alone would take you to 60.58, but that may change based upon other happenings today and Tuesday.
    Still it is a horrible loss either way. Losing quality wins bonus points hurts especially when the loss is to a bottom feeder team.

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  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by QUAlum2004 View Post
    The killer of a loss against Princeton loses 1.25 points. Hopefully a win against Providence Wednesday makes that difference up.
    That's just Quality Wins Bonus, not your RatingsPI. Your RatingsPI is currently at 59.60 with removals of Bentley, both Holy Cross games, Dartmouth, and the Princeton game from Friday. Beating Providence alone would take you to 60.58, but that may change based upon other happenings today and Tuesday.

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  • QUAlum2004
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    The killer of a loss against Princeton loses 1.25 points. Hopefully a win against Providence Wednesday makes that difference up.

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  • FlagDUDE08
    replied
    Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

    Originally posted by Patman View Post
    I would take that regional in a heart beat.
    You mean the 9-12 band regional?

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