John t whelan ranking simulator

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Clarkson and Yale...chn and siouxsports are insignificantly different but there are multiple teams with a different ranking for uscho compared to chn and siouxsports.

Found this discussion interesting also. I went back and did a check. Unless I can't see what I am missing, uscho and chn show exactly the same values. The ratios between teams in uscho/chn compared to siouxsports are close to with a few parts in 10000.

What I am expecting happened here was that ShirtlessGuy was looking while all 3 sites were processing results from tonight's Beanpot games. One site may have had all the results, the others not yet. It seems now, with all results in, that the numbers for KRACH are the same (up to a constant multiplier, of course. Which multiplier is 1.545)

[Patman]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Clarkson and Yale...chn and siouxsports are insignificantly different but there are multiple teams with a different ranking for uscho compared to chn and siouxsports.

are there teams with the same value? There are two possibilities... missing game(s). A few substantial differences with some minor but existing deviations. Other possibility, iterations and round-off error... unlikely at this point but if so every team would have small deviations.

Otherwise I'd start to see if they're accidentally putting in weighted games into KRACH.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Based on my quick spot checks, the rankings are all the same and the ratios between the ratings are all the same. The actual rankings in KRACH are arbitrary, it's the ratio between two rankings that predicts the likelihood of one team beating another.

Clarkson and Yale...chn and siouxsports are insignificantly different but there are multiple teams with a different ranking for uscho compared to chn and siouxsports.

[JimDahl]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

This seems like the right thread to ask. I just started looking at KRACH today because gfmorris has been using it to predict WCHA results and noticed that USCHO, CHN and SiouxSports all claim to be showing KRACH values for teams but they all have different values?

Based on my quick spot checks, the rankings are all the same and the ratios between the ratings are all the same. The actual rankings in KRACH are arbitrary, it's the ratio between two rankings that predicts the likelihood of one team beating another.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

This seems like the right thread to ask. I just started looking at KRACH today because gfmorris has been using it to predict WCHA results and noticed that USCHO, CHN and SiouxSports all claim to be showing KRACH values for teams but they all have different values?

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Thanks. I should have mentioned, I actually fixed a problem on my end in the interim. USCHO incorrectly has Bentley v. Holy Cross listed as a home game instead of neutral, so may calculations for those two were off by a smidge. Easy to find when it's two teams that are off, but a reminder of how painful it's going to be to care about location. As discussed earlier in this thread, I clearly need to write a parser for CHS and begin to treat it as authoritative.

awk FTW

[JimDahl]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

It looks like they match now; must have caught one of us between updates.

http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/pwr.php will pull/scrape updated results; I never implemented a caching layer and the .html page has fallen wildly out of date.

Thanks. I should have mentioned, I actually fixed a problem on my end in the interim. USCHO incorrectly has Bentley v. Holy Cross listed as a home game instead of neutral, so may calculations for those two were off by a smidge. Easy to find when it's two teams that are off, but a reminder of how painful it's going to be to care about location. As discussed earlier in this thread, I clearly need to write a parser for CHS and begin to treat it as authoritative.

[RHamilton]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Where is Reilly's? I had this bookmarked, but it doesn't seem to match up at all.

It looks like they match now; must have caught one of us between updates.

http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/pwr.php will pull/scrape updated results; I never implemented a caching layer and the .html page has fallen wildly out of date.

[JimDahl]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

JimDahl and RHamilton - Just a note, and you probably are aware of this, but the last I checked, your current Final RPI numbers for all teams are identical, except for Bentley and Holy Cross, and I am not sure why that is.

Where is Reilly's? I had this bookmarked, but it doesn't seem to match up at all.

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Priceless,
If SCSU's region is arbitrary, then wouldn't it also be possible to put Providence in Worcester because it's so much close for them?

I would get the same brackets, but reverse the locations of Worcester and Bridgeport.

Sure. In this scenario, it doesn't really matter.

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Only one host team makes the tournament, and they just happen to also be the #1 overall seed, so placing them is easy. Minnesota goes to St. Paul. Next, the remaining #1 seeds are placed according to proximity to campus. #2 Ferris State goes to Cincinnati. #3 St Cloud State isn't within driving distance of either Worcester or Bridgeport, so we'll place them in Worcester and #4 Providence will get Bridgeport.

Priceless,
If SCSU's region is arbitrary, then wouldn't it also be possible to put Providence in Worcester because it's so much close for them?

I would get the same brackets, but reverse the locations of Worcester and Bridgeport.

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

After the games this weekend I'll start a pairwise thread with a look back at the pairwise as of the first weekend of January since 2003. For now, here is the bracketology for the New Year:

Using the pairwise from SiouxSports/Reilly Hamilton because they seem to have the most accurate calculations at this point.

1 Minnesota
2 Ferris State
3 St. Cloud State
4 Providence
5 Boston College
6 Union
7 Quinnipiac
8 Mass.-Lowell
9 Wisconsin
10 Michigan
11 Clarkson
12 Vermont
13 Cornell
14 Maine
15 Northeastern
32 Air Force
---
16 Notre Dame

Only one host team makes the tournament, and they just happen to also be the #1 overall seed, so placing them is easy. Minnesota goes to St. Paul. Next, the remaining #1 seeds are placed according to proximity to campus. #2 Ferris State goes to Cincinnati. #3 St Cloud State isn't within driving distance of either Worcester or Bridgeport, so we'll place them in Worcester and #4 Providence will get Bridgeport.

The 2 seeds are placed accordingly: #8 Lowell is St Paul, #7 Quinnipiac in Cincinnati, #6 Union in Worcester and #5 Boston College in Bridgeport.

The first intraconference matchups crop up as we place the 3 seeds. #11 Clarkson and #12 Vermont are switched to avoid conference confrontations in the first round. Clarkson to Bridgeport to play BC and Vermont to Worcester to play Union. The B1G teams stay west, with #10 Michigan going to Cincinnati and #9 Wisconsin going to St Paul.

Air Force is our #16 seed as the automatic qualifier from the AHA goes to St Paul to play Minnesota. #15 Northeastern goes to Cincinnati, #14 Maine to Worcester and #13 Cornell to Bridgeport.

Bridgeport (Yale)	Worcester (Holy Cross)	Cincinnati (Miami)	St Paul (Minnesota)
Providence		St Cloud		Ferris			Minnesota
Boston College		Union			Quinnipiac		Lowell
Clarkson		Vermont			Michigan		Wisconsin
Cornell			Maine			Northeastern		Air Force

We have resolved the 2 conference meetings, but what about attendance? St Paul is fine. Bridgeport has 4 eastern schools and PC and BC are local so they should be OK. Worcester is a little light, but drivable for Maine fans hungry to get back to the NCAAs and Union and Vermont should add a few fans. Cincinnati is stuck with two eastern teams, but without host Miami making the field this is about as good as it gets. All their hopes for attendance lie with the Wolverines.

These are the brackets as of December 31.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Also, FlagDude, do you have a recent "Results" file available? I can't find anything past Dec 8 on your website.

Thanks.

I do not have a recent one.

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Also, FlagDude, do you have a recent "Results" file available? I can't find anything past Dec 8 on your website.

Thanks.

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

JimDahl and RHamilton - Just a note, and you probably are aware of this, but the last I checked, your current Final RPI numbers for all teams are identical, except for Bentley and Holy Cross, and I am not sure why that is.