John t whelan ranking simulator

[QUAlum2004]

That's just Quality Wins Bonus, not your RatingsPI. Your RatingsPI is currently at 59.60 with removals of Bentley, both Holy Cross games, Dartmouth, and the Princeton game from Friday. Beating Providence alone would take you to 60.58, but that may change based upon other happenings today and Tuesday.

Still it is a horrible loss either way. Losing quality wins bonus points hurts especially when the loss is to a bottom feeder team.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Still it is a horrible loss either way. Losing quality wins bonus points hurts especially when the loss is to a bottom feeder team.

Actually, depending on who beats or ties you, it's actually not all that bad. What I posted is not how many you received, but the rate at which other teams may receive if they play and beat or tie you. Thus far, you have 0.62 Quality Wins Bonus points, and these are from games vs. UMASS Lowell, Cornell, and Yale. Remember that a tie is half a win and half a loss, so you still get some points in there.

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Still it is a horrible loss either way. Losing quality wins bonus points hurts especially when the loss is to a bottom feeder team.

And, the horrible-ness of the loss is compounded by how much your own RatingsPI suffers from it. Own win% goes down a lot from 12-1-1 to 12-2-1, and Princeton not being a great power makes the effect on RatingsPI even worse.

If I understand this QWB part right, Quinn actually lost 0 QWB points from not beating Princeton. The real problem is as above - lose to a bottom team and your RatingsPI takes a huge hit.

[Patman]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

You mean the 9-12 band regional?

well, yes

Misread

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

And, the horrible-ness of the loss is compounded by how much your own RatingsPI suffers from it. Own win% goes down a lot from 12-1-1 to 12-2-1, and Princeton not being a great power makes the effect on RatingsPI even worse.

If I understand this QWB part right, Quinn actually lost 0 QWB points from not beating Princeton. The real problem is as above - lose to a bottom team and your RatingsPI takes a huge hit.

They lost some QWB points, because remember that the factor I post is multiplied by the weighted win rate, and then total of those is divided by the team's potential number of weighted win% points, but that's going to happen whenever you play a non-quality team. Not to mention, UMASS Lowell took a hit, and that dropped the QWB.

[Numbers]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

They lost some QWB points, because remember that the factor I post is multiplied by the weighted win rate, and then total of those is divided by the team's potential number of weighted win% points, but that's going to happen whenever you play a non-quality team. Not to mention, UMASS Lowell took a hit, and that dropped the QWB.

Understood, FlagDude. I was trying to point out the concept that losing to a bottom team hurts because your RatingsPI takes a huge hit on your own part.

Lost QWB points due to the number of games played is just a fact of scheduling (yes, I know that defeating a very bottom team in totally neutral, because the game essentially doesn't count).

Lost QWB points because some other team you defeated loses is also a fact of life. In some cases, a team you defeated earlier might sweep the #1 team, and then move up, giving you more QWB points that you didn't earn yourself.

Lost Ratings PI points because you lost to a team with a low win% is on yourself, for the most part.

[Priceless]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

These are the types of things that are going to drive fans mad.

Wisconsin doesn't play.
Drops from 8 to 16 in raw RPI.
BU beats and ties North Dakota.
Falls from #18 to #34 because they beat Wisconsin.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Might as well make a Sunday games update:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 Michigan
4.50 Ferris State
4.25 St. Cloud State
4.00 Providence
3.75 Quinnipiac
3.50 Cornell
3.25 Boston College
3.00 LSSU
2.75 Clarkson
2.50 Minnesota Duluth
2.25 Notre Dame
2.00 Minnesota State Mankato
1.75 UMASS Lowell
1.50 Yale
1.25 Wisconsin
1.00 Bowling Green
0.75 New Hampshire
0.50 Miami
0.25 Union

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
Michigan
Providence
Ferris State

St. Cloud State
Quinnipiac
Boston College
Cornell

LSSU
Minnesota Duluth
UMASS Lowell
Notre Dame

Clarkson
Yale
Wisconsin
AHA Champ (37 - Air Force)

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

These are the types of things that are going to drive fans mad.

Wisconsin doesn't play.
Drops from 8 to 16 in raw RPI.
BU beats and ties North Dakota.
Falls from #18 to #34 because they beat Wisconsin.

You mean 28 to 34? There's no way they were at 18.

[Priceless]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

You mean 28 to 34? There's no way they were at 18.

I do the Hockey East pairwise every week. But I found my mistake...it was UHN at 18 last week, not BU.

[goblue78]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

These are the types of things that are going to drive fans mad.

Wisconsin doesn't play.
Drops from 8 to 16 in raw RPI.
BU beats and ties North Dakota.
Falls from #18 to #34 because they beat Wisconsin.

Sure, but all of those fans can comfort themselves with the fact that every team is still in it.... and not just in the sense that anybody can still win in the conference playoffs and get in. Virtually every non-AHA team still has plenty of time to get in through the front door... certainly every team within, say three games of .500. That's why November PWR is REALLY meaningless. It's not that these games don't count... they definitely do. It's that it's impossible to tell how much they count until you know what happens in the rest of the season.

[Priceless]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Sure, but all of those fans can comfort themselves with the fact that every team is still in it.... and not just in the sense that anybody can still win in the conference playoffs and get in. Virtually every non-AHA team still has plenty of time to get in through the front door... certainly every team within, say three games of .500. That's why November PWR is REALLY meaningless. It's not that these games don't count... they definitely do. It's that it's impossible to tell how much they count until you know what happens in the rest of the season.

I know they aren't very meaningful, but there are going to be fluctuations - Northeastern going from 11 to the 30's in one week. One of the things I am watching is whether the rankings will solidify as time passes or if the fluctuations continue. This is a new way of calculating RPI and Pairwise.

[goblue78]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

I can guarantee the variance of the ratings will increase, since counting games at either .8 or 1.2 (with roughly equal probabilities) is guaranteed to increase variance. On the other hand, I can also guarantee that, jsut as in every other year, variance will decrease as the year winds down, because it will still be the case that the 20th game has, on average, only about 1/20th the weight of the previous games. Add to that the removal of the TUC cliff and variance at the end of the season will almost surely be lower. That doesn't mean, of course, that it might not still be the case that in a particular circumstance a team might not drop six places with a loss if they are particularly narrowly perched above the five teams below them, even at the end of the season. But there is nothing in the new system that won't stabilize the results overall at the end of the season.

[Steve_MN]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

Really good discussion for the numbers geeks among us. Keep up the good work, guys.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: John t whelan ranking simulator

As of games ended 26 November 2013:

5.00 Minnesota
4.75 Ferris State
4.50 Michigan
4.25 St. Cloud State
4.00 Providence
3.75 Quinnipiac
3.50 Cornell
3.25 Boston College
3.00 LSSU
2.75 Clarkson
2.50 Minnesota Duluth
2.25 Notre Dame
2.00 Yale
1.75 Minnesota State Mankato
1.50 Wisconsin
1.25 Bowling Green
1.00 UMASS Lowell
0.75 Miami
0.50 Union
0.25 Northern Michigan

And the tournament field:

Minnesota
Michigan
Ferris State
St. Cloud State

Providence
Quinnipiac
Cornell
Boston College

LSSU
Minnesota Duluth
Clarkson
Notre Dame

Yale
UMASS Lowell
Wisconsin
AHA Champ (38 - Air Force)