RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

[rsfs04]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Friday
RPI: Mike Zalewski
Yale: Tommy Fallen

Saturday
RPI: Brock Higgs
Brown: Matt Lorito

[TuteScrooge]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Friday
'Tute: - Milos Bubela
Yale - Rob O'Gara

Saturday
'Tute - Mike Zalewski
Brown - Matt Lorito

[1988]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Friday
RPI: Milos Bubela
Yale: Jesse Root

Saturday
RPI: Mike Zalewski
Brown: Matt Lorito

[hawthr]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Friday
RPI - Zalewski
Yale - Root

Saturday
RPI - Neal
Brown - Lorito

[engineerhockeyfan]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

You can only really do it consistently with the opposition and only in league play, though. According to the rules, you may only choose a player once in a weekend. So when you're playing the same team 2-3 times in a week, the assumed starting goaltender may only be chosen once. On top of that, as you are not allowed to change opposition mid-week, a team that splits shifts is a coin flip in and of itself, although some schools have a pattern associated with this (with CCT, it's play-'til-you-lose). With that aside, assuming the teams are on equal footing, the chances of a team winning is about 43% (as there is a 14% chance of a tie; this came from some research done a couple years ago, I think TBRW). We'll say it's about 45% chance of you scoring points, as a certain percentage of those ties will be 0-0, which counts under shutout rules. Adjust as you will for the aforementioned anomalies.

Now consider the selection of a skater. First, you must factor in eligibility. Then, you must factor the amount of ice time the player gets, and of course the goaltender anomalies still apply. When a goal is scored, even when you factor in that your line/pair is on the ice, you have essentially a 50/50 chance of scoring any points at all (adjusting for the number of assists awarded on goals, especially considering a number of goals in this league come off turnovers as opposed to sustained pressure, and point weighting). Do some lines score more than others? Yes, and you may factor that in accordingly, but being on the ice isn't enough. Obviously this is offset by point multiples, but given the number of goals scored in a typical game, it doesn't make up for the chance of a skater getting a point to lower the house edge.

Therefore, when you consider from a standpoint of house advantage, you will get more points in the long run from consistently choosing goaltenders, and doing so on both teams. Is this a guarantee that you will win PtC? Certainly not, as choosing skaters is improbable, but not without possibility. At this point in the season, choosing nothing but goaltenders as allowed, and maximizing for point totals, would net you a minimum of 45 points (assuming none of the goalies had assists) before week wins and other skaters chosen. Have many players scored more than this? Yes, but have done so in the short term.

Dude, it is pick to click, not rocket science. I will stick to my dart board method.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

I don't know why you are getting so much grief, it was the right pick. We had four starters on the sidelines. You couldn't predict a shut out any more than you could predict your opposition pick scoring a hat trick.
I wish I had thought of it. My pick didn't even play.

You can only really do it consistently with the opposition and only in league play, though. According to the rules, you may only choose a player once in a weekend. So when you're playing the same team 2-3 times in a week, the assumed starting goaltender may only be chosen once. On top of that, as you are not allowed to change opposition mid-week, a team that splits shifts is a coin flip in and of itself, although some schools have a pattern associated with this (with CCT, it's play-'til-you-lose). With that aside, assuming the teams are on equal footing, the chances of a team winning is about 43% (as there is a 14% chance of a tie; this came from some research done a couple years ago, I think TBRW). We'll say it's about 45% chance of you scoring points, as a certain percentage of those ties will be 0-0, which counts under shutout rules. Adjust as you will for the aforementioned anomalies.

Now consider the selection of a skater. First, you must factor in eligibility. Then, you must factor the amount of ice time the player gets, and of course the goaltender anomalies still apply. When a goal is scored, even when you factor in that your line/pair is on the ice, you have essentially a 50/50 chance of scoring any points at all (adjusting for the number of assists awarded on goals, especially considering a number of goals in this league come off turnovers as opposed to sustained pressure, and point weighting). Do some lines score more than others? Yes, and you may factor that in accordingly, but being on the ice isn't enough. Obviously this is offset by point multiples, but given the number of goals scored in a typical game, it doesn't make up for the chance of a skater getting a point to lower the house edge.

Therefore, when you consider from a standpoint of house advantage, you will get more points in the long run from consistently choosing goaltenders, and doing so on both teams. Is this a guarantee that you will win PtC? Certainly not, as choosing skaters is improbable, but not without possibility. At this point in the season, choosing nothing but goaltenders as allowed, and maximizing for point totals, would net you a minimum of 45 points (assuming none of the goalies had assists) before week wins and other skaters chosen. Have many players scored more than this? Yes, but have done so in the short term.

[engineerhockeyfan]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Could be worse, you could also be getting commentary about it.

I don't know why you are getting so much grief, it was the right pick. We had four starters on the sidelines. You couldn't predict a shut out any more than you could predict your opposition pick scoring a hat trick.
I wish I had thought of it. My pick didn't even play.

[RPIHFH]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Friday
RPI: Matt Neal
Yale: Tommy Fallen

Saturday
RPI: Brock Higgs
Brown: Nick Lappin

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Could be worse, you could also be getting commentary about it.

There is a difference in picking a skater from the other team and picking the goalie.

[vizoroo]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

RPI: Brock Higgs
Yale: Day

RPI: Mike Zalewski
Brown: Lorito

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Friday
RPI ENGINEERS: MIKE ZALEWSKI
The people who want to give me a Ph.D.: Pittsburgh Native Jesse Root

BIG RED FREAKOUT
RPI ENGINEERS: BROCK HIGGS
****: Matt Lorito

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

I didn't like it when I got most of my points last weekend from an opposing player.

Could be worse, you could also be getting commentary about it.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Thanks. I'll go with Neal instead, although I've got a funny feeling Schroeder gets his first this weekend.

Oh, and STOP WINNING!

I didn't like it when I got most of my points last weekend from an opposing player.

[MavHockey14]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

Laliberte has a separated shoulder. We do not yet know if he will play.

Thanks. I'll go with Neal instead, although I've got a funny feeling Schroeder gets his first this weekend.

Oh, and STOP WINNING!

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Pick to Click 2013-14: Revenge of the Nerds

RPI: Higgs
Yale: Obuchowski

RPI: Zalewski
Brown: Lappin