Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

[vicb]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Only 3 days left to get your Quarterfinal Round Picks into the ECAC Pick The Playoffs.
You have until 7PM Friday.

http://board.uscho.com/showthread.ph...-Playoffs-2014

[cornellgradyalefan]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

[QUOTE]

One more in-the-weeds issue: RPI this year is affected by so-called Quality Win Bonus Points. Yale has done really badly in this category, since our only wins against top 20 RPI teams are the two wins against Colgate. (We also get points from the ties with QPac and Vermont.) Beating Cornell will get us precious few more, because 2 losses will almost drop them from the top 20 and the points are graduated. But unless we play them, we really want Colgate to do as well as possible -- they're already giving us about 6 extra RPI points, and that will grow if their ranking grows (6 points is pitiful, but every point helps.) A good run by Vermont in the hockey East tournament might give us another couple of points as well.[/QUOTE

And this is where the horrible quality of the out of conference opponents kills us this year, whereas the UD-CC road trip allowed us to squeak in last year. With the Harvard at MSG game seeming to take on a life of it's own, it will be critical for Yale to drop the games against SHU, (CJ notwithstanding), and Holy Cross and replace them with contests against a couple of quality Western teams. Of course, there is a bit of a crap-shoot nature to the games against HE teams but I don't recall Yale venturing into the deep end of the HE pool except for home and home against BC the past two years.. Nate Leaman is a former ECAC coach. Maybe a two year home and home with PC would be a good way to beef up the OOC schedule.

[MSchvatz44]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Spring Break at QU is this week, so the students will be slowly trickling in over the weekend. While I am not sure if the school put up the student section tickets for sale, my guess is the only potential game with a solid student turnout would by Sunday.

Should be a great series.

[LTsatch]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Well, It is off to QU once again. Yale will be healthy against them for the first time this year. It will be an uphill battle, but they are playing better now than at any point in the season. Need to shoot on Gartieg as much as possible and keep the puck out of the corners in their own end. Hopefully the students are out of town.

[LTsatch]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

41 is the number of comparisons won. You will note that it almost perfectly follows RPI rank (inversely). Minnesota State is the only team ahead of us with a lower rank than their RPI would imply, and that's just a matter of swapping them with Colgate. The new criteria are what has virtually aligned RPI and ranking, by removing TUC. A team behind another team in RPI has to beat them both head-to-head and against common opponents to win the comparison now. Since there aren't that many head-to-head comparisons, and since common opponents mostly follows RPI, the two are highly aligned. In the case of Mankato vs. Colgate, Mankato loses the comparison to Duluth, who they lead in RPI, while Colgate wins the comparison with Cornell, who they trail in RPI. Those two combine to put Minnesota State one behind Colgate.

For Yale, it's all RPI: they can't pass anyone ahead of them in RPI by other means, or lose to anyone behind them, given the way it breaks down. (Just to be clear, their RPI can still move up or down, of course.) So just follow the RPI column and you're all good. Beating QPac has a much better upside to RPI than beating Cornell, so if you want to sneak in without the autobid (which probably still means getting to the Lake Placid finals) that's who you want to play. [EDIT: I take CGYF's point -- we match up much better with Cornell. I'm just saying that beating Cornell 2-1 will probably still require a first-round Lake Placid win at a minimum, and may still even require the autobid. Not so with QPac -- 2-0 and a semis loss to Union might conceivably squeak us in.] If you get the autobid, of course, it doesn't matter -- there's essentially no way for Yale to get better than a 4 seed without tremendous luck.

One more in-the-weeds issue: RPI this year is affected by so-called Quality Win Bonus Points. Yale has done really badly in this category, since our only wins against top 20 RPI teams are the two wins against Colgate. (We also get points from the ties with QPac and Vermont.) Beating Cornell will get us precious few more, because 2 losses will almost drop them from the top 20 and the points are graduated. But unless we play them, we really want Colgate to do as well as possible -- they're already giving us about 6 extra RPI points, and that will grow if their ranking grows (6 points is pitiful, but every point helps.) A good run by Vermont in the hockey East tournament might give us another couple of points as well.

As always, great analysis!. I still have this dream/nightmare of sitting in a hockey rink in Hamden Friday night. I am selfishly rooting for Clarkson tonight.

[goblue78]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

GB78, Can you explain for me how the number in the USCHO pairwise first column (PWR) is determined. I thought the ranking was by RPI? Yale is a "41" how is that number reached?

I also like the fact that Minn. State and northeastern are playing superior teams, next week, they are directly IFO us.

41 is the number of comparisons won. You will note that it almost perfectly follows RPI rank (inversely). Minnesota State is the only team ahead of us with a lower rank than their RPI would imply, and that's just a matter of swapping them with Colgate. The new criteria are what has virtually aligned RPI and ranking, by removing TUC. A team behind another team in RPI has to beat them both head-to-head and against common opponents to win the comparison now. Since there aren't that many head-to-head comparisons, and since common opponents mostly follows RPI, the two are highly aligned. In the case of Mankato vs. Colgate, Mankato loses the comparison to Duluth, who they lead in RPI, while Colgate wins the comparison with Cornell, who they trail in RPI. Those two combine to put Minnesota State one behind Colgate.

For Yale, it's all RPI: they can't pass anyone ahead of them in RPI by other means, or lose to anyone behind them, given the way it breaks down. (Just to be clear, their RPI can still move up or down, of course.) So just follow the RPI column and you're all good. Beating QPac has a much better upside to RPI than beating Cornell, so if you want to sneak in without the autobid (which probably still means getting to the Lake Placid finals) that's who you want to play. [EDIT: I take CGYF's point -- we match up much better with Cornell. I'm just saying that beating Cornell 2-1 will probably still require a first-round Lake Placid win at a minimum, and may still even require the autobid. Not so with QPac -- 2-0 and a semis loss to Union might conceivably squeak us in.] If you get the autobid, of course, it doesn't matter -- there's essentially no way for Yale to get better than a 4 seed without tremendous luck.

One more in-the-weeds issue: RPI this year is affected by so-called Quality Win Bonus Points. Yale has done really badly in this category, since our only wins against top 20 RPI teams are the two wins against Colgate. (We also get points from the ties with QPac and Vermont.) Beating Cornell will get us precious few more, because 2 losses will almost drop them from the top 20 and the points are graduated. But unless we play them, we really want Colgate to do as well as possible -- they're already giving us about 6 extra RPI points, and that will grow if their ranking grows (6 points is pitiful, but every point helps.) A good run by Vermont in the hockey East tournament might give us another couple of points as well.

[LTsatch]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Root hard for Princeton. Both Cornell games were close and Yale is now skating with their entire team. Qpac was the superior team in both games save a five minute stretch in the first game this year. Missed the game tonight but loved Carson Cooper's game on Friday and Bonner was a revelation. And Jesse Root's big play ability and leadership are off the charts.

Bonner did not have a shot tonight , but played hard and was 5 of 9 on faceoffs. Good player , but not going to be planting his feet IFO the net as a center. Hayden has become a cycling animal, finallty starting to use his size, with a little mean streak.

[cornellgradyalefan]

GB78, Can you explain for me how the number in the USCHO pairwise first column (PWR) is determined. I thought the ranking was by RPI? Yale is a "41" how is that number reached?

I also like the fact that Minn. State and northeastern are playing superior teams, next week, they are directly IFO us.

Root hard for Princeton. Both Cornell games were close and Yale is now skating with their entire team. Qpac was the superior team in both games save a five minute stretch in the first game this year. Missed the game tonight but loved Carson Cooper's game on Friday and Bonner was a revelation. And Jesse Root's big play ability and leadership are off the charts.

[LTsatch]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Up to 18 in the pairwise. QPac is better from a pairwise perspective (plus no travel), but Cornell can be passed directly. Either way, there's no way to get in without winning this series, and almost surely at least the first round in LP.

GB78, Can you explain for me how the number in the USCHO pairwise first column (PWR) is determined. I thought the ranking was by RPI? Yale is a "41" how is that number reached?

I also like the fact that Minn. State and northeastern are playing superior teams, next week, they are directly IFO us.

[goblue78]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Up to 18 in the pairwise. QPac is better from a pairwise perspective (plus no travel), but Cornell can be passed directly. Either way, there's no way to get in without winning this series, and almost surely at least the first round in LP.

[LTsatch]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Nice comeback win by the Blue and White. Girard had them stonewalled along with two pipes hit in the first two periods. Credit to Ryan Obuchowski who got leveled on a boarding but was able to stuggle off the ice to give Yale a full compliment on the ice which led to the first goal. It was great to see Agostino get the game winner in his final appearance at Ingalls. The goal was a fantastic deflection. When Yale is able to get at least a little net front presence, good things happen, they need to be there to clean up the garbage. We must await to see the winner of the Clarkson game Sunday. I think Yale's chances are better against Cornell, but I would rather see them beat Quinnipiac.

[Skate79]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Congrats on the sweep. Best of luck going forward. Regarding Monday's visit to the White House, when we won in '89, the sitting President was a Yale grad. On Monday, you guys get to rub it in to a Harvard grad. One of life's little quirks I guess.

[goblue78]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

So the good news is that we're 17-9-5. The bad news is that against any team that isn't Harvard or Princeton we're 10-9-4. No good wins against good programs yet. Next week will be the test, either at QPac (probably) or Lynah. Combined 0-3-1 so far this year. If we can't win that series on the road, we don't deserve to move on. Let the magic begin.

[Skate79]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Maybe I'm just cynical from too many RPI playoff series, but calling a series done before the clock reads 0:00 and one team has won a majority of the games played is almost always a mistake. I do think the Bulldogs will come out on top this weekend, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's hockey at the Whale tomorrow.

Or maybe you're just trying to put the hex on like those guys who scream "SHUTOUT" and "PERFECT GAME" before it's really time. Jerk.

I've seen Harvard play Yale twice this season and I didn't come away with a whole lot of confidence that the Crimson can beat Yale especially at the Whale. Okay so you've had problems in the second of back to back games but we also lost two of our forwards last night so we're shorthanded and less talented. Not a script for success.

[bulldog10jw]

Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey 2013-14: Repeat after me.......CHARACTER IS DESTINY

Maybe I'm just cynical from too many RPI playoff series, but calling a series done before the clock reads 0:00 and one team has won a majority of the games played is almost always a mistake. I do think the Bulldogs will come out on top this weekend, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's hockey at the Whale tomorrow.

Since Yale has not shown the ability to put two good games back to back on the same weekend, I wouldn't be surprised, either.