Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

[mnstate0fhockey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

It's fairly long, or as I like to say thorough , but HERE are my season thoughts and predictions.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Ah yes, more bloviating from the board's resident bore.

[burd]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Ah yes, more bloviating from the board's resident bore.

Just didn't expect to see bloviating here.

[jerryj]

It's fairly long, or as I like to say thorough , but HERE are my season thoughts and predictions.

Great article. I agree with pretty much everything you wrote.. For the sake of discussion... A couple things. although Lucia always says they need more points out of boyd, I think he is a grinder.. He doesn't have a scorers touch but he is good in the corners. I also agree it would be nice to have someone physical on the ice like ambroz with cammarata but I don't think he could keep up with first liners and particularly against another teams top line. I thought ambroz took a step forward last year but I think he needs to take another step forward to warrant even a third line spot. He is big but he doesn't win enough puck battles in the corners- which is the one area he should shine in. I also like michaelsons game- he was strong in the corners for a freshman and could act as a distributor. My opening night lines with guertler suspended:

Michaelson Rau Kloos
Cammarata Condon Fasching
Warning Boyd C Reilly
Serratore Lettieri Ambroz

Parenteau Reilly
Skjei Marshall
Brodzinski Holl/Bischoff

Wilcox

[mnstate0fhockey]

Great article. I agree with pretty much everything you wrote.. For the sake of discussion... A couple things. although Lucia always says they need more points out of boyd, I think he is a grinder.. He doesn't have a scorers touch but he is good in the corners. I also agree it would be nice to have someone physical on the ice like ambroz with cammarata but I don't think he could keep up with first liners and particularly against another teams top line. I thought ambroz took a step forward last year but I think he needs to take another step forward to warrant even a third line spot. He is big but he doesn't win enough puck battles in the corners- which is the one area he should shine in. I also like michaelsons game- he was strong in the corners for a freshman and could act as a distributor. My opening night lines with guertler suspended:

Michaelson Rau Kloos
Cammarata Condon Fasching
Warning Boyd C Reilly
Serratore Lettieri Ambroz

Parenteau Reilly
Skjei Marshall
Brodzinski Holl/Bischoff

Wilcox

Excellent feedback. Thanks for reading and thank you for your feedback!

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Cool analysis. I like the fact based approach to coming up with estimates. I don't know that the scoring works out though. Last year the Gophs were the top scoring team in the country...and based on your goals have this years team increasing that by 20 some percent. With that kind of production, I'd expect the gophers to be #1 much of the year rather than a 20 win team. Not trying to just be negative...but wondering if there are some modifications you would consider.

[mnstate0fhockey]

Cool analysis. I like the fact based approach to coming up with estimates. I don't know that the scoring works out though. Last year the Gophs were the top scoring team in the country...and based on your goals have this years team increasing that by 20 some percent. With that kind of production, I'd expect the gophers to be #1 much of the year rather than a 20 win team. Not trying to just be negative...but wondering if there are some modifications you would consider.

Fair feedback.

The analysis is more meant to be an illustration of what I think the players are capable of producing this year more than what I am projecting them to put up. Doubtful that every returning player is going to increase their point production this season, and I don't think every freshman will hit the marks I calculated. I'd actually be surprised if more than three or four get there or exceed them.

Also, my calculations for the whole roster actually uses something like 40 more player games than is technically possible. However, I didn't want to start reducing games played for players because I'm not 100% certain who tDon is going to start and I thought it might be more insightful to show that this team has the potential to produce some really high scorers.

In the end, I don't think they get to the number of goals scored last season, but I do think they score enough goals where scoring won't be our primary concern. I think the defensive play of our young lineup (especially up front where we might have as many as 5 freshmen starting) will be a much bigger concern. We were 3rd in the NCAA in team defense last season and I think that could potentially drop more than our team offense.

Good discussion!

[Greyeagle]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

It's fairly long, or as I like to say thorough , but HERE are my season thoughts and predictions.

Wow! Some serious effort there, thanks!

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Fair feedback.

The analysis is more meant to be an illustration of what I think the players are capable of producing this year more than what I am projecting them to put up. Doubtful that every returning player is going to increase their point production this season, and I don't think every freshman will hit the marks I calculated. I'd actually be surprised if more than three or four get there or exceed them.

Also, my calculations for the whole roster actually uses something like 40 more player games than is technically possible. However, I didn't want to start reducing games played for players because I'm not 100% certain who tDon is going to start and I thought it might be more insightful to show that this team has the potential to produce some really high scorers.

In the end, I don't think they get to the number of goals scored last season, but I do think they score enough goals where scoring won't be our primary concern. I think the defensive play of our young lineup (especially up front where we might have as many as 5 freshmen starting) will be a much bigger concern. We were 3rd in the NCAA in team defense last season and I think that could potentially drop more than our team offense.

Good discussion!

Yeah. I have done some of this type of work for much of my career is why I'm being the way I am. What I think is particularly worth highlighting (and you've done that) is the relative positioning of the players. A couple of notes - I too believe that Warning's play was underrepresented by his point totals. Some nights last year, I thought he gave the best effort on the ice. If given the right line combo, his production should go up big time. Also, although I think M Reilly steps up...Marshall will be the guy. I think many are pinning Reilly expectations on Don's comments. IMO Marshall was one of the best quarterbacks in college hockey last year...he was just behind the best. So it wouldn't surprise me if Don said this to motivate Marshall to be the guy while Reilly is #2 this year and #1 next. Time will tell.

[mnstate0fhockey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Wow! Some serious effort there, thanks!

No problem! Thanks for reading

[Hammy]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

MNStateofHockey should have done a good, better, best scenario. Get to work!

I never get caught up in line predictions given how often they tend to change early on. But I have to admit that I would feel uneasy about Ambroz in any kind of top 6 role at this stage. I appreciate trying to add some size but I think you have to balance out that factor with whether a guy is going to slow down a line in transition play, etc.

If you want to use the size variable on a top line.... I'm not sure I'd be sold on this move either but I'd actually feel better about Fasching in that role over Ambroz. Fasching adds the good size and is a better skater than Ambroz. Frankly, I wouldn't be averse to throwing Kloos on the top line. The size may not be ideal but the reality is that would be a very difficult group to get a handle on.

I think we shouldn't overlook the potential of guys like Isackson and Michaelson could provide this year. Each has solid size and skate well (especially Michaelson). I wouldn't say either are anything but average as far as scoring but they can play that grind it out role better than they are probably given credit for.

I think the good thing we see is there will be a lot of competition. Which should only help push the team in replacing some of the key guys from last year. This is definitely a highly skilled group but it will be relying on some young guys to produce out of the gate.

[mnstate0fhockey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Yeah. I have done some of this type of work for much of my career is why I'm being the way I am. What I think is particularly worth highlighting (and you've done that) is the relative positioning of the players. A couple of notes - I too believe that Warning's play was underrepresented by his point totals. Some nights last year, I thought he gave the best effort on the ice. If given the right line combo, his production should go up big time. Also, although I think M Reilly steps up...Marshall will be the guy. I think many are pinning Reilly expectations on Don's comments. IMO Marshall was one of the best quarterbacks in college hockey last year...he was just behind the best. So it wouldn't surprise me if Don said this to motivate Marshall to be the guy while Reilly is #2 this year and #1 next. Time will tell.

Excellent thoughts! I agree on Marshall. He could be poised to have a big year too. It will be really fun to see he and Reilly working the power play this year.

I took a stab at proportioning out the games to eliminate the issue with more games played by players than possible and here are the projected 2013-14 stats that I got. If we can get this type of production this year, watch out

*******http://i.imgur.com/Vknr1OM.jpg?1********

[goldy_331]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Ah yes, more bloviating from the board's resident bore.

This was by minnesotastateOfhockey, wasn't it? Not Harley, right?

[Hammy]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Offesason Thread: Back To 1896

Great article. I agree with pretty much everything you wrote.. For the sake of discussion... A couple things. although Lucia always says they need more points out of boyd, I think he is a grinder.. He doesn't have a scorers touch but he is good in the corners. I also agree it would be nice to have someone physical on the ice like ambroz with cammarata but I don't think he could keep up with first liners and particularly against another teams top line. I thought ambroz took a step forward last year but I think he needs to take another step forward to warrant even a third line spot. He is big but he doesn't win enough puck battles in the corners- which is the one area he should shine in. I also like michaelsons game- he was strong in the corners for a freshman and could act as a distributor. My opening night lines with guertler suspended:

Michaelson Rau Kloos
Cammarata Condon Fasching
Warning Boyd C Reilly
Serratore Lettieri Ambroz

Parenteau Reilly
Skjei Marshall
Brodzinski Holl/Bischoff

Wilcox

One thing I'd point out right away... Vinni doesn't play center. He's a winger all the way.

Interesting first line. I could see that as a possibility.

I think Warning one of our best lefty forwards. Personally, I like him staying w/ Condon. He has the speed and skill to be there and do well.

I do think some of the line combos I see around the interweb are getting a little too caught up in making sure a line has some "size". I think that variable can be a little overrated. I'm not saying it means nothing but I think you have to balance out a variety of variables well beyond that to make sure you have the right mix. If that means the best fit of guys are all 5'9" or less, then so be it.

[mnstate0fhockey]

One thing I'd point out right away... Vinni doesn't play center. He's a winger all the way.

Interesting first line. I could see that as a possibility.

I think Warning one of our best lefty forwards. Personally, I like him staying w/ Condon. He has the speed and skill to be there and do well.

I do think some of the line combos I see around the interweb are getting a little too caught up in making sure a line has some "size". I think that variable can be a little overrated. I'm not saying it means nothing but I think you have to balance out a variety of variables well beyond that to make sure you have the right mix. If that means the best fit of guys are all 5'9" or less, then so be it.

Good point on your comment regarding size. I think you're probably right there.