Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

[Patman]

I believe what has been used by some is to use KRACH ratings to figure out the odds of teams winning games and proactively adjust the PWR to make a prediction as to who has the best odds of making it to the tournament. I wonder how accurate KRACH is in predicting the winner of games based upon various ranges of chance of winning (50%-60%, 60%-70%, etc.)?

Personally I take more stock in score predictive models... I think once we get past the Monday tournament Sioux sports does sims from remaing regular season games.

If I had my way I'd have a giant simulator available earlier in the season a la baseball prospectus... But schedules are fluid because of tournaments and tie-breakers are hard for this "as I need to" programmer.

Edit: you know, I've talked about this so long, I ought to just write up a document giving what i want to do and then gauge ability and interest in pulling it off.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

Patman,

I did a quick look at Lowell just now. You might know more details. What I found was that their TUC record could hurt them. They currently lead the compares with both UNO and SCSU because of having a higher RPI. But, in both cases, they lose both COp and TUC once TUC comes into play.

So, I would say, their position, if they stay sort of 'on the bubble' in the RPI ranks, is a bit tenuous for the tournament field.

Do you concur?

[Patman]

Patman,

I did a quick look at Lowell just now. You might know more details. What I found was that their TUC record could hurt them. They currently lead the compares with both UNO and SCSU because of having a higher RPI. But, in both cases, they lose both COp and TUC once TUC comes into play.

So, I would say, their position, if they stay sort of 'on the bubble' in the RPI ranks, is a bit tenuous for the tournament field.

Do you concur?

Without looking closely... Lowell did well in OOC but only split against the WCHA teams so that will leave an impact. Their TUC and that will hold Lowell down as the WCHA tends to have a fair number of teams in the pair wise. The only thing holding us up at the moment is strength of schedule.

I've noticed that in pair wise if you are to choose your losses then take them against crummy opposition. Of course, that isn't controllable.

Lowell has a lot of work to do and the TUC harm is nearly undoable due to their performances against BU, BC, and UNH... I'll leave out the DU game as parts of the picture were there... It just didn't come together that night.

---

I really ought to get to work... Don't be surprised if a PDF shows in my signature in line w the grander idea that I always seem to talk about.

[UMLFan]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

Lowell has a lot of work to do and the TUC harm is nearly undoable due to their performances against BU, BC, and UNH

Lowell hasn't played BU yet.

[burgie12]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

I think I will stick to the Priceless thread, because you guys are going way over my head. If you want to do a Yale comparison for chits and giggles, have at it, they are an interesting case so far.

Yale's heavily insular schedule does make them a very interesting case.

Add in the fact that 8 of Yale's 13 remaining regular season games are against current TUCs (and three more against Princeton and Rensselaer, who are each within 0.015 RPI of being a TUC) and it's practically impossible to make any definitive claims about them.

The best advice for Yale going forward is to continue winning the big games. The losses to RPI and Holy Cross may be maddening as a fan, but they are great for the team as explained a couple of seasons ago by Scott Brown. The main point, though is that only 5 of Yale's 16 games so far have been played against TUCs and 8 of their remaining 13 will be. So, really, we just don't know enough about Yale's ability to make any statements on how strong or weak they are compared to their current Pairwise placement.

[Patman]

Lowell hasn't played BU yet.

Alright, I thought we had played a game

[JimDahl]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

I think once we get past the Monday tournament Sioux sports does sims from remaing regular season games.

If I had my way I'd have a giant simulator available earlier in the season a la baseball prospectus... But schedules are fluid because of tournaments and tie-breakers are hard for this "as I need to" programmer.

I can simulate everything except across the conference tournament break. So, for now I simulate up to the end of the regular season, then once the tournaments are seeded I can simulate to the end of the conference tournaments.

If there's interest in any particular output/results, or even some new type of interactivity so you can explore the data yourself, let me know and I'll see what I can do. I'll probably get my first post of the season up this week.

Basically, there are three kinds of variably scheduled games in college hockey:
* Best of three series
* Tournaments where games are played by winners/losers of other games
* Conference tournaments. After the first round, they all fall into the 2nd bullet above. In the play-in rounds they depend on standings and may involve ranking and reordering the bracket. Each is different, which is a little annoying; but the real killer is the CCHA which uses shootout results that I don't have in my games database.

[goblue78]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

Burgie12: You're right about Yale and its TUC games, but you left out the games that have been already played that might become TUC games again if Holy Cross, UMass and Colorado College creep back in... they're even closer than RPI and Princeton. That's what I think makes the PWR interesting, if maddening to analyze: the fact that Yale's chances might well depend on which of Colorado College and Holy Cross has a better season from here on out. One is very good for the Elis and one is very bad. BUT... you don't want any team to sink TOO far below the TUC line or it begins eating into your RPI, whether you beat them or lost to them. In an ideal world, every team you lost to should have an RPI of .4999 to maximize your chances of getting in.

[LTsatch]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

Yale's heavily insular schedule does make them a very interesting case.

Add in the fact that 8 of Yale's 13 remaining regular season games are against current TUCs (and three more against Princeton and Rensselaer, who are each within 0.015 RPI of being a TUC) and it's practically impossible to make any definitive claims about them.

The best advice for Yale going forward is to continue winning the big games. The losses to RPI and Holy Cross may be maddening as a fan, but they are great for the team as explained a couple of seasons ago by Scott Brown. The main point, though is that only 5 of Yale's 16 games so far have been played against TUCs and 8 of their remaining 13 will be. So, really, we just don't know enough about Yale's ability to make any statements on how strong or weak they are compared to their current Pairwise placement.

Thanks for your analysis, "just win baby!' helps in all cases as well.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

Thanks for your analysis, "just win baby!' helps in all cases as well.

Not always.

[LTsatch]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

Not always.

True, Yale was better off losing in the ECAC tourney a couple of years ago to get in the dance, forgot about that one.

[burgie12]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

Burgie12: You're right about Yale and its TUC games, but you left out the games that have been already played that might become TUC games again if Holy Cross, UMass and Colorado College creep back in... they're even closer than RPI and Princeton.

I was just trying to look at their schedule going ahead and how heavily back-loaded it is.

That's what I think makes the PWR interesting, if maddening to analyze: the fact that Yale's chances might well depend on which of Colorado College and Holy Cross has a better season from here on out. One is very good for the Elis and one is very bad. BUT... you don't want any team to sink TOO far below the TUC line or it begins eating into your RPI, whether you beat them or lost to them. In an ideal world, every team you lost to should have an RPI of .4999 to maximize your chances of getting in.

Even if Holy Cross does slip back into the TUCs, it's just one loss. In order for Yale to stay in the field, they'll have to keep their RPI high. To do that, they're going to need a lot of wins down the stretch against good-quality teams, which will take care of their TUC Record whether the Crusaders are above the cliff or not.

Thanks for your analysis, "just win baby!' helps in all cases as well.

Within reason. There are always exceptions.

The only real statement that can be made for Yale this far out from the end of the season is that they'll need to perform well, especially against the firm TUCs (Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, etc.) and they should cheer for the teams that they played (UMass, BC, and especially DU and CC) to do well, too.

[Hockey Dogg]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

The one team that really jumped out to me is BU. Their 4-6-0 TUC Record will significantly hurt them down the stretch (especially the fact that they're 3-6-0 against teams in the Top 10 of the RPI, teams that are extremely unlikely to fall off of the cliff), as will their 1-2-0 record against the WCHA and their 0 games played against CCHA teams this season. Their poor performance against the WCHA renders the COp comparison lost against nearly every WCHA team right off the bat and no games against CCHA teams means that they have one less opportunity to hide their poor TUC Record against most CCHA teams.

At BU's current RPI, once the TUC Record comes into play, they will lose the Dartmouth and North Dakota comparisons. Their comparison against Wisconsin is also hanging on by just a thread (both teams have a 0.400 TUC win percentage). Further, once their TUC Record comes into play against Colgate, potentially Cornell, and Denver, BU's RPI is the only thing keeping them winning those comparisons.

The Terriers could easily drop 4 comparison wins, just by playing out the rest of the regular season, pushing them much closer to the cut line than they are currently.

I could be wrong, but I think there is an error in the current standings on USCHO. BU has a 4-6 record vs TUC on the main PWR rankings page, but if you look at the individual comparisons it is showing a BU record of 4-5 vs. TUC and thus is not awarding a PWR point for TUC in all BU comparisons.

[Numbers]

I could be wrong, but I think there is an error in the current standings on USCHO. BU has a 4-6 record vs TUC on the main PWR rankings page, but if you look at the individual comparisons it is showing a BU record of 4-5 vs. TUC and thus is not awarding a PWR point for TUC in all BU comparisons.

I wonder if that 4-5 record is in a comparison with a TUC they have played. In that case, that game does not count on the TUC record.

[burgie12]

Re: Pairwise Analysts, Please Come Help Us 2013

I wonder if that 4-5 record is in a comparison with a TUC they have played. In that case, that game does not count on the TUC record.

Right, H2H games are not also included in their TUC record. So, when looking at the DU / BU comparison, they will only have a 4-5-0 record. And, in the BC / BU comparison, it is 3-4-0, but against Miami (for example) it does come into play.