Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[burgie12]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

THIS IS NOT AN EXHAUSTIVE LIST, IT'S JUST WHAT I FOUND PLAYING AROUND WITH RHamilton's TOOL.

Teams that can clinch today:
Yale - WIN
SCSU - WIN AND (Niagara OR Union OR Brown OR BU OR CC loses)
Minnesota State - A huge number of scenarios. Some top ways that I found... Minnesota AND (St. Cloud OR Connecticut) win; Quinnipiac AND (Connecticut AND (Canisius OR Wisconsin)) win
Niagara - WIN AND ((Yale AND Quinnipiac) OR Minnesota OR (Boston College AND (UML OR Mercyhurst)) wins)
Denver - Canisius AND (Minnesota OR Wisconsin OR (Boston College AND UML)) win

Teams that can be eliminated today:
Mercyhurst, Connecticut, Canisius, Brown, BU, Providence, CC, Wisconsin - lose
Rensselaer - ((at least 2 of BU, Canisius, and Wisconsin) AND Union win) OR (BU AND Providence AND Wisconsin) win
Robert Morris - Connecticut OR Canisius OR (CC AND Wisconsin) wins

[goblue78]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

RHamilton has done a great job, and I'm very grateful, but not enough to play with his tool.

[lugnut92]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Teams that can be eliminated today:
Rensselaer - (at least 2 of BU, Canisius, and Wisconsin) AND Union win

RPI will also be eliminated if BU, Providence, and Wisconsin all win.

[Umileated]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

RHamilton has done a great job, and I'm very grateful, but not enough to play with his tool.

I'm glad I'm not the only 12-year-old-in-spirit.

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

THIS IS NOT AN EXHAUSTIVE LIST, IT'S JUST WHAT I FOUND PLAYING AROUND WITH RHamilton's TOOL.

Teams that can clinch today:
Yale - WIN
SCSU - WIN AND (Niagara OR Union OR Brown OR BU OR CC loses)
Minnesota State - A huge number of scenarios. Some top ways that I found... Minnesota AND (St. Cloud OR Connecticut) win; Quinnipiac AND (Connecticut AND (Canisius OR Wisconsin)) win
Niagara - WIN AND ((Yale AND Quinnipiac) OR Minnesota OR (Boston College AND (UML OR Mercyhurst)) wins)
Denver - Canisius AND (Minnesota OR Wisconsin OR (Boston College AND UML)) win

Teams that can be eliminated today:
Mercyhurst, Connecticut, Canisius, Brown, BU, Providence, CC, Wisconsin - lose
Rensselaer - ((at least 2 of BU, Canisius, and Wisconsin) AND Union win) OR (BU AND Providence AND Wisconsin) win
Robert Morris - Connecticut OR Canisius OR (CC AND Wisconsin) wins

My head hurts.

[burgie12]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

RHamilton has done a great job, and I'm very grateful, but not enough to play with his tool.

I'm glad I'm not the only 12-year-old-in-spirit.

There's a reason I phrased it that way

My head hurts.

Given your history, you might want to check with a doctor.

[Priceless]

Given your history, you might want to check with a doctor.

Point, Larusso

[Craig P.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

you know what is the most annoying part of this? we've got it boiled down to a science with actual computer scientists and statisticians who can tell ahead of time what a given result will yield and we'll still have to listen to supposed experts on TV tell us total nonsense.

Adam Wodon knows his s***. I don't know if he's as plugged into the details as folks in this thread, but if not, it's not for lack of respect for or understanding of the more advanced analytical methods.

[Patman]

Adam Wodon knows his s***. I don't know if he's as plugged into the details as folks in this thread, but if not, it's not for lack of respect for or understanding of the more advanced analytical methods.

Nobody is blaming Wodon... Earlier I almost used him as an example of somebody who knows what is going on.

[Priceless]

Adam Wodon knows his s***. I don't know if he's as plugged into the details as folks in this thread, but if not, it's not for lack of respect for or understanding of the more advanced analytical methods.

Dont say that name too loud, he is persona non grata around these parts. but yes he does know the pairwise pretty well. what I mean are the morons at FSN calling the Gophers #1 or the analysts who tell us teams like CC have jumped in the "power" rankings and may get an at-large bid. No, they won't.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

4:45 Central time. Wisconsin won, Niagara, Quinn, and Lowell all trail.

I suppose you call this "chaos"!!

[RHamilton]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated predictions/odds given the current results (following Wisconsin's defeat of SCSU) here:
http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/

And the two tools now have WCHA Semi #2 disabled (I called it semi #2 before I looked at the schedule, it was apparently semi #1, whatever ).

• KRACH weighted PWR Predictor / Odds: http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/query.php - to see who is in/out and what seeding possibilities remain
• Game-by-Game Outcome Summarizer: http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/query2.php - to see how a particular seed can be achieved

[cF[Authentic]]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

If the Brown/QU and Canisius/Niagara scores hold then the first five conference tourney games all go to the underdogs. Not good for bubble teams.

[Craig P.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Does the outcomes tool take autobids into account? That is, can I get tournament participation just by asking for seed better than 16, or do I need to consider cases where there are fewer at-large bids and a seed of 14, 15, or 16 would be left out?

[RHamilton]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Does the outcomes tool take autobids into account? That is, can I get tournament participation just by asking for seed better than 16, or do I need to consider cases where there are fewer at-large bids and a seed of 14, 15, or 16 would be left out?

Yes, all seeds are final, post auto-bid. If Mercyhurst wins the AHA they will receive seed #16, and whoever had #16 by PWR will be assigned #17 in that tool.