The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

[aparch]

If you keep the playoff games (best of 3) at the highest seeded teams home site (especially the championship round) it seems to me like you'd have good to very good attendance from your home base. Then, during the championship round, you're going to see much more of the visiting team's fan base show up for a weekend in whatever nWCHA team is hosting. [That's a competition and a motivation in and of itself: we (choose your team) are not going to let (choose a team) host the championship this year; it's going to be in our house! Let's go score some goals! Something like that! ] Plus, it will be great marketing for each respective university to show off their school, and the ADs and administration will love it.

College hockey is not like the NHL. It more resembles the AHL and ECHL in regards to attendance.

In case you didn't notice, attendance was awful around most of the New WCHA teams during the past playoffs. This goes back for a few years.

If these teams can't get butts into the seats, how are they supposed to market a Championship event to these fans? If you award it to the regular season champ, that gives you two weeks to prepare, and hope your team doesn't get eliminated in the first round. If you award it to last years champ, there is no guarantee your team will make it next season.

Even worse, your looking at trying to squeeze in 36 to 38 games in to the schedule, so performing best of three eliminations all the way to the championship would make scheduling a nightmare.

[aparch]

I'd take Minneapolis or Madison over Duluth. not that I don't like Duluth. but in March. almost no chance of nice weather. and almost no shopping.

Then become a fan of a B1G school or an NCHC school.

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

Plenty of other NCAA sports adapt to the short logistical time frame for league playoffs. Let's clearly define what we're talking about eh?

First .... here's a list of the attendance potential at each venue.
UAA - 6206
UAF - 4595
BGSU - 5000
Bemidji - 4350
Ferris - 2457
Lake - 3373
Tech - 4200
Kato - 4832
Northern - 3800

Conservative Scenario
(9th place team doesn't participate)
Playoffs First Round (8 teams)
(assume all hosted at the 4 smallest rinks -- 13830 total seats/70% fill = 9681 total -- 2420 avg per barn)
4 series (8 games minimum)
38724 times $15 a ticket = $580,860

Playoffs Second Round (4 teams)
(randomly selected hosts of LSSU and Tech -- 7573 total seats/90% fill = 6815 -- 2407 avg per barn)
2 series (4 games minimum)
27260 times $15 a ticket = $408,900

So $989,760 or almost a million bucks. Assume expenses are 30 percent and you're left with $692,832 of revenue to share amongst the schools.

This is a low ball figure (8 teams only -- in little barns -- with cheap tickets and I haven't included the final series) in case you haven't figured that out. I see no reason in reality that schools wouldn't end up easily with $100,000 each.

Please double-check and/or correct, manipulate as you choose.

[aygwm2]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

College hockey is not like the NHL. It more resembles the AHL and ECHL in regards to attendance.

In case you didn't notice, attendance was awful around most of the New WCHA teams during the past playoffs. This goes back for a few years.

If these teams can't get butts into the seats, how are they supposed to market a Championship event to these fans? If you award it to the regular season champ, that gives you two weeks to prepare, and hope your team doesn't get eliminated in the first round. If you award it to last years champ, there is no guarantee your team will make it next season.

Even worse, your looking at trying to squeeze in 36 to 38 games in to the schedule, so performing best of three eliminations all the way to the championship would make scheduling a nightmare.

Understood.

I guess if the nWCHA is going to find a neutral-site championship venue, then maybe it should rotate on an annual basis between venues in Alaska, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio (and Alabama if they're ever let onboard).

This is selfish on my part, but Duluth is a long haul from Grand Rapids, Michigan--just about anywhere in Minnesota is.

[MavsFan]

This is selfish on my part, but Duluth is a long haul from Grand Rapids, Michigan--just about anywhere in Minnesota is.

Darn lakes are always in the way.

[MUnRPI]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

So $989,760 or almost a million bucks. Assume expenses are 30 percent and you're left with $692,832 of revenue to share amongst the schools.

i'd say 65-70 is a conservative estimate..

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

i'd say 65-70 is a conservative estimate..

I'm unsure what you mean. Are you saying that hosting venues take 70% of the revenue?

[MUnRPI]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

I'm unsure what you mean. Are you saying that hosting venues take 70% of the revenue?

Not necessarily. Just operating expenses in general before the the schools see any of the money.

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

Not necessarily. Just operating expenses in general before the the schools see any of the money.

Yeah ... ok.

[aparch]

Yeah ... ok.

I'd say it's right. The league pays for travel and accommodations for the tournament, covers rental costs for the arena, any staff hired for the event.

I'll take a stab at breaking down the numbers in the morning.

Attendance numbers are way too high in your estimate.


Remember, this isn't the WCHA you're familiar with. This is now the CCHA like most of is are familiar with. We never received healthy league checks just for participating in the season.

[aparch]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

Okay. Here's what I have worked out so far... Of the New WCHA schools (including UAH as an option), the average regular season attendance over the last three years is: 59.1%. 63.4% without UAH.

Of those schools, four have hosted playoff hockey: NMU, FSU, LSSU, and UAF. Fans in those cities averaged (again, over three years) to fill: 46.0% of the arenas. A reduction by 15%.

Now, here's how the "New WCHA" would have finished this year (yes, I know it's completely imbalanced).

			W	L	T	Pts	Gms
Bemidji State		10	2	0	20	12
Northern Michigan	9	3	2	20	14
Ferris State		8	1	3	19	12
Lake Superior		8	7	1	17	16
Minnesota State		7	4	1	15	12
Alaska			6	8	2	14	16
Michigan Tech		5	7	0	10	12
Bowling Green		5	13	0	10	18
Alaska-Anchorage	3	8	1	7	12
Alabama-Huntsville	0	8	0	0	8

Using your format Donald, UAH and UAA don't make the playoff system.

Our first round becomes (and rink capacity):
BGSU at BSU (4,700), MTU at NMU (4,300), UAF at FSU (2,493), MSU-M at LSSU (4,000)

I have data for the last three years worth of playoffs for NMU, FSU, and LSSU. Attendance averaged:
NMU: 44.2%, FSU: 54.2%, LSSU: 31.2%.
For BSU, let's assume -15% from their season average of 82.8%, for a playoff average of 67.8%.
Our average attendance per night for the playoffs become:
BSU: 3,187; NMU: 1,901; FSU: 1,351; LSSU: 1,248. Let's figure 2.5 games for each arena, giving us a total first round attendance of: 19,218. Almost HALF of your estimate.

Let's move on to the second round (if we use the home ice championship venue method). For ease, let's just say the top four teams move on, with BSU hosting LSSU, and NMU hosting Ferris. You had an increase of almost 20% for your second round, so I'll do similar and say that the average regular season attendance shows up for this round:
BSU: 82.8% for 3,891/night, NMU 70.4% for 3027/night. Again, 2.5 games for this round gives us just 17,295 combined attendance for the second round.

Just 36,513 people for two rounds of hockey, at your price of $15 per person = $547,695.
And you still have a third round to go. Say Bemidji and NMU win, with BSU hosting NMU at the Sanford Center. Now, lets say they sell out the place, 4,700 people, at $15 a seat, for 2.5 nights. $70,500. Add that to the leagues take earlier, and we get $618,195.


Now, how does the money get split?
We have a ten team league, with eight playoff teams, four who hosted, two who hosted twice, and one who hosted the championship *(I'd like to point out at this point that the Championship host city under this format could be any WCHA school, just adjust the attendance)*. Don't forget to deduct any transportation and lodging costs for the traveling schools. You're looking at a much smaller check than you thought. Is it fair that UAA and UAH get $61,820 for sitting home, and was it worth it to win the league title at home for Bemidji? If the league covers the costs (I don't want to take the time to figure out ice-rental, staff payments, and travel costs for the post season), so let's take a lump sum $250,000 off that just to cover all playoff expenses. Now we're down to just $36,820 per team as a "Thank You" check from the league. Enough to re-coup the costs for the regular season road trips to UAH and BGSU.



Here's my homework:
Attendance breakdown and averages for the last three years. Includes adjustment to USCHO's attendance figures and playoff breakout.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...3c&output=html

Huge spreadsheet using the composite results for the regular season, adjusting for the 2013-14 conference re-alignment.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...2c&output=html

[jdmaxim23]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

Great job APARCH, its nice to see the numbers laid out in front, even if its only assumptions at this point.

My other concerns/questions are about TV revenue and sponsorships. Will a network want to committ to televising 3 rounds of games? Will they even care about the first two rounds? Seems to me there is potential that they don't care much unless its a one-n-done tourney. Then again, does the nWCHA really have a chance at getting say FSN, NBCsports (whoever) to pay much for a tourney? Or how much does the league pay for them to televise it? Same with Sponsorships, hard to get a sponsor to committ to a sum of money if they don't know where or when the games will be played from year to year.

How about all the extra potential games. Is this a good recruiting tool to potential future players? Gets them ready for the NHL style format (more games), or does it wear them out by the time the NCAA's get there?

I'm not against this set up at all, I like the NHL style setup to it, but I also like the central tourney site idea. In the end, whatever brings in the most money and exposure to the league teams.

[aparch]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

I don't think any TV networks are knocking on the WCHA's door asking to televise the championship games. If anything, it's going to require the WCHA using some of that playoff money and put it towards buying air time from a regional sports-net. And, if they're going to do that, then buying time for two days worth of games (neutral site, win or go home format) is much easier to sell than a day or two for three weeks (on-campus tourney rounds).

The B1G Network will take care of their own broadcast, potentially working with FSN-North and FSN-Detroit to simulcast the games. Both networks have alternate Plus stations, which could be home to the NCHC and/or WCHA.

Other options would be to approach other midwestern Regional Sports Nets to see if air time would be available. FS-Wisconsin, FS-Midwest, and FS-Ohio are options. Potentially CSN-Chicago, Comcast Chicago 100, or Comcast Michigan 900 also.

I'm like you though, and don't know much more than just taking some wild-a** guesses at what is available. That's up to the WCHA subcommittee on that topic to hammer out. I'd say that it's a much safer bet that a high-speed high-quality internet stream will be available before a TV package is created. And, a streaming package is much more readily accessible to kids and prospects across the globe than a local/regional TV package is. It's much easier to direct a recruit to the university's website where they can watch the game on their computer or smart phone.

Plus, there isn't international broadcast licensing rights to contend with, if the WCHA produces and supplies the product themselves on their website.

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

Okay. Here's what I have worked out so far... Of the New WCHA schools (including UAH as an option), the average regular season attendance over the last three years is: 59.1%. 63.4% without UAH.

Of those schools, four have hosted playoff hockey: NMU, FSU, LSSU, and UAF. Fans in those cities averaged (again, over three years) to fill: 46.0% of the arenas. A reduction by 15%.

Now, here's how the "New WCHA" would have finished this year (yes, I know it's completely imbalanced).

			W	L	T	Pts	Gms
Bemidji State		10	2	0	20	12
Northern Michigan	9	3	2	20	14
Ferris State		8	1	3	19	12
Lake Superior		8	7	1	17	16
Minnesota State		7	4	1	15	12
Alaska			6	8	2	14	16
Michigan Tech		5	7	0	10	12
Bowling Green		5	13	0	10	18
Alaska-Anchorage	3	8	1	7	12
Alabama-Huntsville	0	8	0	0	8

Using your format Donald, UAH and UAA don't make the playoff system.

Our first round becomes (and rink capacity):
BGSU at BSU (4,700), MTU at NMU (4,300), UAF at FSU (2,493), MSU-M at LSSU (4,000)

I have data for the last three years worth of playoffs for NMU, FSU, and LSSU. Attendance averaged:
NMU: 44.2%, FSU: 54.2%, LSSU: 31.2%.
For BSU, let's assume -15% from their season average of 82.8%, for a playoff average of 67.8%.
Our average attendance per night for the playoffs become:
BSU: 3,187; NMU: 1,901; FSU: 1,351; LSSU: 1,248. Let's figure 2.5 games for each arena, giving us a total first round attendance of: 19,218. Almost HALF of your estimate.

Let's move on to the second round (if we use the home ice championship venue method). For ease, let's just say the top four teams move on, with BSU hosting LSSU, and NMU hosting Ferris. You had an increase of almost 20% for your second round, so I'll do similar and say that the average regular season attendance shows up for this round:
BSU: 82.8% for 3,891/night, NMU 70.4% for 3027/night. Again, 2.5 games for this round gives us just 17,295 combined attendance for the second round.

Just 36,513 people for two rounds of hockey, at your price of $15 per person = $547,695.
And you still have a third round to go. Say Bemidji and NMU win, with BSU hosting NMU at the Sanford Center. Now, lets say they sell out the place, 4,700 people, at $15 a seat, for 2.5 nights. $70,500. Add that to the leagues take earlier, and we get $618,195.


Now, how does the money get split?
We have a ten team league, with eight playoff teams, four who hosted, two who hosted twice, and one who hosted the championship *(I'd like to point out at this point that the Championship host city under this format could be any WCHA school, just adjust the attendance)*. Don't forget to deduct any transportation and lodging costs for the traveling schools. You're looking at a much smaller check than you thought. Is it fair that UAA and UAH get $61,820 for sitting home, and was it worth it to win the league title at home for Bemidji? If the league covers the costs (I don't want to take the time to figure out ice-rental, staff payments, and travel costs for the post season), so let's take a lump sum $250,000 off that just to cover all playoff expenses. Now we're down to just $36,820 per team as a "Thank You" check from the league. Enough to re-coup the costs for the regular season road trips to UAH and BGSU.

The main point of this whole discussion is to identify the difference between potential playoff revenues versus a hosted tournament at some neutral site. None of the money in either case is going to be some great stream for any of the schools. Rather they'll be offsets against the much larger expense side of the column.

I can only ask why is LSSU even in this conference if they put those kind of numbers up for a home playoff series? Not to mentionFerris Wheel and that pathetic turnout or NMU and it's crap numbers.

And why wouldn't Bemidji sell out a playoff series? And if Tech and Northern were having a playoff series at the Mac and not sell it out then Tech should drop hockey too.

And yes ... it's fair that non-playoff schools get the same check as everyone else. That's what a conference is partly formed to do ... to insulate it's membership through revenue sharing. Yeah .. socialism. Don't like revenue sharing? Butt Hurt? Form a breakaway conference.

The nWCHA will move forward as a unit or there'll be some schools dropping hockey.

Any of these nWCHA schools that don't exercise creativity in marketing and work hard to improve attendance have only themselves to blame. It's a new world. Deal with the fact that no matter what you do few if any of the WCHA teams are going to be profit centers for their schools. And the FACKED of the matter is ... there is pretty decent pile of POTENTIAL revenue for any school that wants to work hard to get the most possible.

[uaafanblog]

Re: The New WCHA 2, The Electric Boogaloo (2013-14)

I don't think any TV networks are knocking on the WCHA's door asking to televise the championship games. If anything, it's going to require the WCHA using some of that playoff money and put it towards buying air time from a regional sports-net. And, if they're going to do that, then buying time for two days worth of games (neutral site, win or go home format) is much easier to sell than a day or two for three weeks (on-campus tourney rounds).

The B1G Network will take care of their own broadcast, potentially working with FSN-North and FSN-Detroit to simulcast the games. Both networks have alternate Plus stations, which could be home to the NCHC and/or WCHA.

Other options would be to approach other midwestern Regional Sports Nets to see if air time would be available. FS-Wisconsin, FS-Midwest, and FS-Ohio are options. Potentially CSN-Chicago, Comcast Chicago 100, or Comcast Michigan 900 also.

I'm like you though, and don't know much more than just taking some wild-a** guesses at what is available. That's up to the WCHA subcommittee on that topic to hammer out. I'd say that it's a much safer bet that a high-speed high-quality internet stream will be available before a TV package is created. And, a streaming package is much more readily accessible to kids and prospects across the globe than a local/regional TV package is. It's much easier to direct a recruit to the university's website where they can watch the game on their computer or smart phone.

Plus, there isn't international broadcast licensing rights to contend with, if the WCHA produces and supplies the product themselves on their website.

The nWCHA should webcast all it's games for free. It could be a good recruiting tool. Charging 150 people 6 bucks each isn't doing anything for any school's bottom line; giving it away would be smart marketing.