Thanks for the plots, much as I thought. I am not so sure about your take on the points formula, as it seems to be heavily weighted on participating in and winning the FF. Looks like a really smooth exponential except for teams 5 through 8?
Yes, and I think that's misleading. On the logarithmic plot, it appears that the distance between, say, 8 and 9 is similar to the distance between 51 and 52. On a percentage basis, that's true, but points are awarded on a set scale, not a sliding scale. So #52 would have to do a lot less than #9 would to move up a rank. The only reason they appear similar on the log plot is because #52 hasn't done much in the past while #9 has.
Keep in mind that there's nothing about the formula that should result in anything exponential, so a logarithmic scale is probably misleading in some respect or another.
Powers &8^]
Thanks for the plots, much as I thought. I am not so sure about your take on the points formula, as it seems to be heavily weighted on participating in and winning the FF. Looks like a really smooth exponential except for teams 5 through 8?
Keep in mind that there's nothing about the formula that should result in anything exponential, so a logarithmic scale is probably misleading in some respect or another.
Points: 29.46804 Points
Points earned in 2015-2016 2.4846 Points
Points earned in past five seasons: 15.80464 Points
Last Season Ranking: #32
The Huskies have had a great last four years, winning 20+ games from ’12-’13 to ’14-’15 and 31 games last season. They won the NCHC playoffs before losing in the regionals. They will be hard-pressed to continue the recent success, with several key players leaving the program for the pros and due to graduation.
Points: 29.33969 Points
Points earned in 2015-2016 1.0852 Points
Points earned in past five seasons: 4.41019 Points
Last Season Ranking: #30
The Huskies had quite a season in ’15-’16, starting the year 1-11-2 and finishing the season at 22-14-5, winning the Hockey East playoffs and losing in the regionals to the eventual national champion. They are in good shape to continue their run in the upcoming season with 8 seniors returning to the team.
Points: 22.68181 Points
Points earned in 2015-2016: -0.0017 Points
Points earned in past five seasons: 4.18201 Points
Last Season Ranking: #33
Brown stayed at #33 this past season but will need to have a better season to avoid getting passed by Lowell. After the Bear’s last winning season in ’12-’13, they have three consecutive losing seasons. They will need to improve on 2.10 goals/game and 3.47 goals against/game.
Most of the teams below UVM were either in mid-major conferences for a significant period of time or bottom feeders for their conference, or new. BSU has a shot to make a bit of a jump now that they are in the WCHA. RIT will likely need to win a game in the NCAA to get a significant amount of points.
Winning the AHA tournament and beating #1 overall seed Mankato in 2015 still only got us 1.87 points. It's a huge uphill battle; there's a ton of points awarded for beating good teams in the regular season.
Most of the teams below UVM were either in mid-major conferences for a significant period of time or bottom feeders for their conference, or new. BSU has a shot to make a bit of a jump now that they are in the WCHA. RIT will likely need to win a game in the NCAA to get a significant amount of points.
#34– UMASS LOWELLRIVER HAWKS
Points: 21.12905 Points
Points earned in 2015-2016: 1.7995 Points
Points earned in past five seasons: 14.04975 Points
Last Season Ranking: #35
It has been a great run since the Riverhawks last losing season, when they went 5-25-4 in ’10-‘11. They have won 24, 28, 26, 21 and 25 games in the past five seasons, which resulted in a regular season title, 2 HEA playoff titles, 3 appearances in the national tournament and the program’s first trip to the Frozen Four.
4 appearances in the national tournament (and at least 1 win each time), not 3.
Leave a comment: