Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

[Humanoid]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Niagara is only one PWR point out of 16th place, so would be close to winning a NCCA bid without the AHA autoseed for winning the tourney. Carson Chubak has been awesome in net. But, I like how Bentley is putting shots on the net from all four lines. Also, Weinstein has been great moving the puck through the neutral zone. I am thinking two very close games this weekend in Niagara Falls.

Sorry I've been MIA posting over here everyone. I kind of took a back seat since the beginning of the semester (seriously - is it me or does it seem like our thread dies around this time and then kicks back up around playoff stretch time).

Komm has a 2.17 GAA in the 2nd half of the season, which is actually better than Niagara's GAA. I think if you think about, based on season stats - this one seems like Niagara will beat Bentley because good goalies beat good offenses every time. But a couple of thoughts that might have things in Bentley's way:

1) I have a concern in my own brain that Niagara peaked. They could simply go onto autopilot at any time and still have the #1 seed. That's dangerous for any team. It also means their best hockey of the season is behind them.

2) Niagara is playing for the right to get an at-large bid, but let's be honest here. Down the stretch, unless Niagara wins the conference, they won't finish in the top 15 of the PWR. And I think everyone kind of realizes that. They'd have to be undefeated the rest of the way and finish 11th-13th in the PWR, then lose the conference championship to essentially the #2 team or Robert Morris in order to make the dance.

3) Bentley has been playing lights out lately, and I don't think HC was the better team last weekend even in a win.

4) Gensler's due.

5) Koudys is back in the lineup after being injured, I think. He'll be playing at home with a couple of weeks rest on his legs. If he's not fired up for this weekend, then I don't know who is.

6) It's also a homecoming for several Falcons. Dan - I think you noted this.

[Snively65]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Sorry I've been MIA posting over here everyone. I kind of took a back seat since the beginning of the semester (seriously - is it me or does it seem like our thread dies around this time and then kicks back up around playoff stretch time).

Komm has a 2.17 GAA in the 2nd half of the season, which is actually better than Niagara's GAA. I think if you think about, based on season stats - this one seems like Niagara will beat Bentley because good goalies beat good offenses every time. But a couple of thoughts that might have things in Bentley's way:

1) I have a concern in my own brain that Niagara peaked. They could simply go onto autopilot at any time and still have the #1 seed. That's dangerous for any team. It also means their best hockey of the season is behind them.

2) Niagara is playing for the right to get an at-large bid, but let's be honest here. Down the stretch, unless Niagara wins the conference, they won't finish in the top 15 of the PWR. And I think everyone kind of realizes that. They'd have to be undefeated the rest of the way and finish 11th-13th in the PWR, then lose the conference championship to essentially the #2 team or Robert Morris in order to make the dance.

3) Bentley has been playing lights out lately, and I don't think HC was the better team last weekend even in a win.

4) Gensler's due.

5) Koudys is back in the lineup after being injured, I think. He'll be playing at home with a couple of weeks rest on his legs. If he's not fired up for this weekend, then I don't know who is.

6) It's also a homecoming for several Falcons. Dan - I think you noted this.

All good observations. I have done my part by picking Niagara to sweep in the AHA Pick'em thread, and whenever I do this, my Falcons team proves me wrong, which is fine by me (I am so far behind in the AHA Pick'em thread this season, I could run the table and still be out of the playoffs).

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Niagara also has a number of injuries; five were out of the lineup last weekend.

[Snively65]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Niagara also has a number of injuries; five were out of the lineup last weekend.

Ok, that does it; I am changing my picks in the AHA Pick'Em thread.

[mar7967]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Ok, that does it; I am changing my picks in the AHA Pick'Em thread.

should have stuck with your gut for tonight it seems.

[eXcSports]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Bentley wasn't necessarily outplayed by the Purple Eagles, but I don't think they did the things that they needed to do in order to win the game (obviously). If I had to peg one thing to take out of the game, it's that Branden Komm is peaking at the right moment. The guy's been absolutely on fire and outplayed Chubak last night, even in a loss. I think greater body of work, Chubak's had the better numbers, clearly, this year. But Komm's the hottest goalie in the AHA, and tonight's going to be a barn burner.

My expectation centers on a Falcon loss. And in my math, this is where the rest of the season will bottom out, but UConn is playing extremely well and handled RIT something fierce last night. And Army always plays them well. I'm confident Bentley can be there at the end; we just need to withstand what is going to be a tough weekend to endure for Falcon fans.

A point tonight would make me a very happy man.

[Snively65]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

should have stuck with your gut for tonight it seems.

Perhaps, but I have never tried to pick splits, so still a chance I will break even, as the Falcons played well last night, just not quite well enough.

[Humanoid]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

I hate to say it but those two Holy Cross losses and the games that could've been won this weekend might force Bentley into a first round series. I know it's going to be tight at the top because 2 points separates 2nd and 10th at this point, but still. Bentley doesn't hold a single tiebreak over any of these teams other than Canisius with games left against Army and UConn. I think they could be in some deep trouble because of the Air Force run. If Bentley can't outright ifnish 4th,t hey'll be at home for the first round.

[Sons of Vaval]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

I hate to say it but those two Holy Cross losses and the games that could've been won this weekend might force Bentley into a first round series. I know it's going to be tight at the top because 2 points separates 2nd and 10th at this point, but still. Bentley doesn't hold a single tiebreak over any of these teams other than Canisius with games left against Army and UConn. I think they could be in some deep trouble because of the Air Force run. If Bentley can't outright ifnish 4th,t hey'll be at home for the first round.

And I thought last year was an aberration with how tight everyone was in the standings. While Niagara is running away with the regular season title, it is amazing every team not named AIC or Sacred Heart has a shot at a top 4 seed.

Being an HC alum, I feel pretty safe that the 'Saders will finish second. Mercyhurst and Air Force both finish out their schedules against tough western pod teams, while HC has Sacred Heart, AIC, UConn, and Army.

[Humanoid]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

And I thought last year was an aberration with how tight everyone was in the standings. While Niagara is running away with the regular season title, it is amazing every team not named AIC or Sacred Heart has a shot at a top 4 seed.

Being an HC alum, I feel pretty safe that the 'Saders will finish second. Mercyhurst and Air Force both finish out their schedules against tough western pod teams, while HC has Sacred Heart, AIC, UConn, and Army.

Bentley needs Air Force to falter. I don't see Mercyhurst falling that far, and I don't see Holy Cross losing in the same schedule Bentley has. I see this rounding out with Air Force finishing fifth and potentially coming out here, but Bentley has to figure out if it's going all or nothing. If they finish fifth, they'll end up going west after playing SHU in the playoffs for the second straight year. And that's a problem.

[Snively65]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Bentley needs Air Force to falter. I don't see Mercyhurst falling that far, and I don't see Holy Cross losing in the same schedule Bentley has. I see this rounding out with Air Force finishing fifth and potentially coming out here, but Bentley has to figure out if it's going all or nothing. If they finish fifth, they'll end up going west after playing SHU in the playoffs for the second straight year. And that's a problem.

Big game between Bobby Mo and Mercyhurst on Tuesday night. Fortunately for Bentley, both Air Force and Mercyhurst still have two games each against Niagara.

But, I am sad that Bentley and Holy Cross were not scheduled for the home and home the final weekend, as in past seasons, as that would have kept things more interesting right up to the end. Unlike past seasons, Bentley's fate for a bye will be decided in the next two weekends against UConn and Army, methinks.

[eXcSports]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Big game between Bobby Mo and Mercyhurst on Tuesday night. Fortunately for Bentley, both Air Force and Mercyhurst still have two games each against Niagara.

But, I am sad that Bentley and Holy Cross were not scheduled for the home and home the final weekend, as in past seasons, as that would have kept things more interesting right up to the end. Unlike past seasons, Bentley's fate for a bye will be decided in the next two weekends against UConn and Army, methinks.

Likewise, I miss having HC on the final weekend because it was always so intense.

I did some sizing up for the playoff race with a prediction for the final standings.

http://excalibursportspage.com/2013/...layoff-update/

[Snively65]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Likewise, I miss having HC on the final weekend because it was always so intense.

I did some sizing up for the playoff race with a prediction for the final standings.

http://excalibursportspage.com/2013/...layoff-update/

Need to be careful what we wish for, as Air Force plays Bentey better in Watertown than in Colorado Springs. Since 2006-07, Bentley is 2-3-3 in the Springs, but only 1-8-1 at the JAR during the regular season. But, Bentley lost two post-season games in the Springs 9-2 and 3-1 in 2008 and lost another to Air Force 3-1 at the AHA tourney in 2009. Even if Bentley ended up 4th and Air Force 5th, Air Force would have the fan advantage at the JAR, as Bentley students will be in Florida and beyond for spring break. So, I guess that I would rather see Air Force end up in any seed where Bentley does not need to face them any sooner than necessary.

[Humanoid]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Curious to know if the weather would force a delay in the games this weekend. Looks like we're goig to get whalloped Friday into Saturday, which might force roads to be unpassable on either of those two days. Could we be looking at Sunday-Monday or, worse, Friday/Sunday?

[Snively65]

Re: Bentley Hockey 2012-2013: The New Era of JAR Pride Begins

Curious to know if the weather would force a delay in the games this weekend. Looks like we're goig to get whalloped Friday into Saturday, which might force roads to be unpassable on either of those two days. Could we be looking at Sunday-Monday or, worse, Friday/Sunday?

Why not Saturday and Sunday? Just flip the Friday game at the JAR to Sunday? All assuming that this storm does in fact materialize as forecast.