Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Here are your updated "expected standings" through Saturday's games:
1. Union (30)
2. Cornell (29)
3. Colgate (27)
4. Harvard (26)
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5. Quinnipiac (23)
6. Clarkson (22)
7. Dartmouth (21)
8. Yale (20)
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9. Princeton (19)
10. St. Lawrence (18)
11. Brown (16)
12. RPI (13)
The only difference between these standings and the actual standings are the positions of Quinnipiac and Clarkson, as Quinnipiac has an easier schedule from here in than Clarkson does.
UPDATE: Harvard's loss tonight caused minor drops in everyone's KRACH, but nothing changed in the standings.
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Harvard and Union are the only two teams left with a strange number of games left. And, with the Colgate / Cornell v Union / RPI travel partners playing each other this past weekend, every team has now played every other team in the league.
--- Bye Lock - 29+
--- Home Lock - 24+
Union 24 - 34 [1-9]
Cornell 21 - 33 [1-12]
Colgate 19 - 31 [1-12]
Harvard 19 - 29 [1-12]
Clarkson 17 - 29 [1-12]
Quinnipiac 16 - 28 [1-12]
Yale 15 - 27 [1-12]
Dartmouth 15 - 27 [1-12]
St. Lawrence 13 - 25 [1-12]
Princeton 13 - 25 [1-12]
Brown 12 - 24 [1-12]
Rensselaer 10 - 22 [2-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 19+
--- Home Eligible - 15+
Colgate is ahead of Harvard based on their game in hand, but Clarkson's loss last night drops them down to 5th.
Yale beat Dartmouth in Hanover last weekend to hold 7th place.
The Saints' win over the Tigers way back in November gives SLU 9th place.
Remaining League Schedules:
So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status still kinda sucks.Code:--------------------------------------------------------- | | |F2/10|S2/11|F2/17|S2/18|F2/24|S2/25| --------------------------------------------------------- | Union | UC | @DA | | PN | QN | @CR | @CG | | Cornell | CR | BN | YA | @CK | @SL | UN | RP | | Colgate | CG | YA | BN | @SL | @CK | RP | UN | | Harvard | HA | RP | | @BN | @YA | SL | CK | | Clarkson | CK | PN | QN | CR | CG | @DA | @HA | | Quinnipiac | QN | @SL | @CK | @RP | @UN | BN | YA | | Yale | YA | @CG | @CR | DA | HA | @PN | @QN | | Dartmouth | DA | UN | RP | @YA | @BN | CK | SL | | St. Lawrence | SL | QN | PN | CG | CR | @HA | @DA | | Princeton | PN | @CK | @SL | @UN | @RP | YA | BN | | Brown | BN | @CR | @CG | HA | DA | @QN | @PN | | Rensselaer | RP | @HA | @DA | QN | PN | @CG | @CR | ---------------------------------------------------------
Union's floor moves up to 9th place. They still need to tie with somebody, but they can lose the tiebreaker against Quinnipiac. That means that they haven't clinched home-ice yet.
Cornell can finish in 12th place, but it requires at least a four-way tie. If it's a tie with Clarkson, Colgate, and RPI, then the Big Red lose all of the tiebreakers and finish in last.
Every other team can still finish by themselves with the least amount of points in the ECAC.
RPI's max is 2nd place. They can't catch Union anymore, but they have a chance to finish by themselves with 22 points for second.
Brown cannot pass the Dutchmen, but they can still capture the #1 seed, mostly based on their season sweep of Union.
Every other team can claim sole possession of the Cleary Cup.
Thresholds:
Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slips to 28 with the correct tiebreakers after Clarkson's loss to Yale yesterday. Cornell and Union finish with 31 and 30 (or 32 and 29). Colgate still finishes with 29 points, but Harvard and Clarkson finish at 28. With the way I generated the tie, the Crimson win the H2H tiebreaker (3 v 1) and get the weekend off.
Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. As I predicted, the tie stays at an 8-way tie at 19 points for 4th place. SLU earned 17 points against everyone else in that bunch to take the bye. Any two points won by Brown, RPI, or Dartmouth on Friday (or any other Dutchmen / Big Red / Crimson opponent) will lower the number.
Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It stays at 24 points plus tiebreakers for now.
Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. It stays at 15 points plus tiebreakers, but is dangerously close to moving up even further. The more "upsets" by SLU, Yale, and Princeton will push this number up. Currently, SLU would take the last home-ice spot by winning the H2H tiebreaker (7 v 3 v 2) against Yale and Princeton.
That's all for today. See all of you on Friday / Saturday next week.Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Thanks Burgie! I was looking for the Sioux Sports calculator (I found TBRW's but as you said, it only has 2011 up now) and here it was. Perfect, saves me a lot of math calculations.Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
All twelve teams played last night, which helped mix some things up. Princeton will lose their game in hand tonight.
--- Bye Lock - 29+
--- Home Lock - 24+
UC 23 - 35 [1-10]
Cornell 20 - 34 [1-12]
Colgate 17 - 31 [1-12]
CCT 17 - 31 [1-12]
Harvard 19 - 29 [1-12]
DC 15 - 29 [1-12]
QU 14 - 28 [1-12]
Yale 13 - 27 [1-12]
PU 13 - 25 [1-12]
Brown 12 - 26 [1-12]
SLU 11 - 25 [1-12]
RPI 10 - 24 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 19+
--- Home Eligible - 15
Colgate and Clarkson are both ahead of Harvard on the basis of their games in hand (0.567 win% vs 0.559).
Colgate beat the Knights in Hamilton and hold 3rd place.
Yale is in 8th place by themselves over Princeton based on the Bulldogs' game in hand (0.433 vs 0.406).
Remaining League Schedules:
So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status still kinda sucks.Code:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | S 2/4 | F 2/10 | S 2/11 | F 2/17 | S 2/18 | F 2/24 | S 2/25 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | UC | Cornell | @DC | | PU | QU | @Cornell | @Colgate | | Cornell | @UC | Brown | Yale | @CCT | @SLU | UC | RPI | | Colgate | @RPI | Yale | Brown | @SLU | @CCT | RPI | UC | | CCT | @Yale | PU | QU | Cornell | Colgate | @DC | @Harvard | | Harvard | | RPI | | @Brown | @Yale | SLU | CCT | | DC | @QU | UC | RPI | @Yale | @Brown | CCT | SLU | | QU | DC | @SLU | @CCT | @RPI | @UC | Brown | Yale | | Yale | CCT | @Colgate | @Cornell | DC | Harvard | @PU | @QU | | PU | | @CCT | @SLU | @UC | @RPI | Yale | Brown | | Brown | SLU | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard | DC | @QU | @PU | | SLU | @Brown | QU | PU | Colgate | Cornell | @Harvard | @DC | | RPI | Colgate | @Harvard | @DC | QU | PU | @Colgate | @Cornell | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Union's win pushes them over 22 points and means that they can't finish in last. In fact, they can only finish as low as 10th place. I got it with a Qpac-Union tie at 23, SLU and RPI below the tie, and everyone else at either 24 or 25.
Every other team can still finish by themselves with the least amount of points in the ECAC.
RPI can still finish in 1st, but can no longer claim sole possession of the Cleary Cup. They would have to tie with at least one other team with their maximum now at 24 points and Union and Cornell still having a pair of games left.
Every other team can finish in 1st place by themselves.
Thresholds:
Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It stays at 29 with the correct tiebreakers after yesterday's tie. Cornell and Union finish with 31 and 30 (or 32 and 29). Harvard, Colgate, and Clarkson all finish at 29 points. With the way I generated the tie, Harvard wins the H2H tiebreaker (7 v 3 v 2), Colgate and Clarkson split the season and the Raiders get to host the Knights with 14 wins instead of 13.
Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. Likewise, I still see an 8-way tie at 19 points to be Bye Eligible. This time, I gave all of the wins to Union (33 pts), Cornell (32), and Harvard (29) and left RPI on the low side (18) to get everyone settled at 19. SLU earned 17 points against everyone else in that bunch to take the bye. Any two points won against Union, Cornell, or Harvard by any other team should move this number up (which means that it shouldn't change as a result of tonight's game).
Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slipped to 24 points plus tiebreakers with RPI, SLU, and Princeton (the teams with the three lowest point maximums) all picking up points. It's really, really close to 25 points, still, but not quite, with just 8th and 9th place at 24 points and 3rd through 7th all at 25.
Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. It creeps up slightly to 15 points due to the number of "upsets" last night. Yale takes the last home-ice spot with 15 points (in my version), with SLU, Princeton, and Brown all tied at 14 and RPI in 12th place with 12 points.
That's all for today. Expect something up tomorrow or Monday with tonight's results.Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Updated Expected standings after tonight's games:
1. Union (31)
2. Cornell (29)
3. Colgate (26)
4. Harvard (26)
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5. Clarkson (23)
6. Quinnipiac (22)
7. Dartmouth (22)
8. Princeton (19)
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9. Yale (18)
10. Brown (17)
11. St. Lawrence (16)
12. RPI (14)
Just a couple of changes from the mid-week version. Union takes first, Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and Dartmouth did a little shuffle, and Princeton and Yale switched places. These standings more closely mirror the actual, current standings except for the transpositions of Harvard-Colgate and Princeton-Yale. Of note for RPI fans, myself included, is that the Engineers' projected final total has increased by 2 points since I first put this together, which is the only real indicator of momentum I can pull from this (and it's not a very good indicator due to small sample sizes).Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Oh, hey, look, there was a game last night!
--- Bye Lock - 29+
--- Home Lock - 25+
UC 21 - 35 [1-12]
Cornell 19 - 35 [1-12]
Colgate 17 - 33 [1-12]
CCT 15 - 31 [1-12]
Harvard 17 - 29 [1-12]
DC 14 - 30 [1-12]
QU 14 - 30 [1-12]
Yale 13 - 29 [1-12]
Brown 12 - 28 [1-12]
PU 12 - 26 [1-12]
SLU 9 - 25 [1-12]
RPI 9 - 25 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 19+
--- Home Eligible - 14+
Clarkson holds 4th over Harvard on the basis of the games in hand (0.536 win% vs 0.531).
Dartmouth and Quinnipiac are tied for 6th place. DC beat QU in New Hampshire to start the season, so they hold the tiebreaker.
Brown is in 10th place by themselves over Princeton based on the Bears' game in hand (0.429 vs 0.400).
St. Lawrence holds the tiebreaker over RPI based on the Pts vs Top 8 criteria.
Remaining League Schedules:
So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status still kinda sucks.Code:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | F 2/3 | S 2/4 | F 2/10 | S 2/11 | F 2/17 | S 2/18 | F 2/24 | S 2/25 | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | UC | Colgate | Cornell | @DC | | PU | QU | @Cornell | @Colgate | | Cornell | @RPI | @UC | Brown | Yale | @CCT | @SLU | UC | RPI | | Colgate | @UC | @RPI | Yale | Brown | @SLU | @CCT | RPI | UC | | CCT | @Brown | @Yale | PU | QU | Cornell | Colgate | @DC | @Harvard | | Harvard | @QU | | RPI | | @Brown | @Yale | SLU | CCT | | DC | @PU | @QU | UC | RPI | @Yale | @Brown | CCT | SLU | | QU | Harvard | DC | @SLU | @CCT | @RPI | @UC | Brown | Yale | | Yale | SLU | CCT | @Colgate | @Cornell | DC | Harvard | @PU | @QU | | Brown | CCT | SLU | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard | DC | @QU | @PU | | PU | DC | | @CCT | @SLU | @UC | @RPI | Yale | Brown | | SLU | @Yale | @Brown | QU | PU | Colgate | Cornell | @Harvard | @DC | | RPI | Cornell | Colgate | @Harvard | @DC | QU | PU | @Colgate | @Cornell | -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remember how I said that it would require at least a 3-way tie for Union to finish in 12th place? Not so much. I was able to put Cornell at 23, the other teams all at 22, and Union by themselves in 12th place with 21.
I have found similar scenarios that give RPI or SLU sole possession of the Cleary Cup with as little as 23 points. So, have faith, ye Engineer and Saint faithful! You do not need your team to win out to finish in 1st place.
Thresholds:
Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slips to 29 with the correct tiebreakers after yesterday's tie. Harvard and Dartmouth win out, with Union, Colgate, and Cornell winning out against the seven remaining teams. Union sweeps Cornell and Colgate and Union split. That leaves Union / Colgate / Cornell tied at 31, Dartmouth at 30, and Harvard at 29.
Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. Likewise, I still see an 8-way tie at 19 points to be Bye Eligible. This time, I gave all of the wins to Union (33 pts), Cornell (33), and Harvard (29) and left Dartmouth on the low side (17) to get everyone settled at 19. Clarkson and RPI each earned 16 points against everyone else in that bunch with Clarkson winning the head-to-head tiebreaker with the season sweep, by the way.
Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. I have it at 25 points plus the required tiebreakers. It's at least a five-way tie at 25 points (Brown / Clarkson / Harvard / Quinnipiac / Yale) with Yale being left out of the home-ice scenario.
Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. With a four-way tie at 8th place, I have Brown / Princeton / SLU / Yale all at 14 points. So, it is possible to play at home in March with just 14 points (and the requisite tiebreakers). By the way, SLU takes 8th place with 8 points head-to-head.
Thanks for reading. I hope that this was useful and that it helps shed some light on the playoff race as we head down the road towards Atlantic City.Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Update for the games last night. No change in the standings, but some point totals changed a bit.
Standings
1. Cornell (30)
2. Union (29)
3. Colgate (28)
4. Harvard (25)
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5. Quinnipiac (24)
6. Dartmouth (22)
7. Clarkson (22)
8. Yale (20)
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9. Princeton (19)
10. Brown (18)
11. St. Lawrence (15)
12. RPI (13)Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
I recently put together a spreadsheet calculating the final point total for each team given their current KRACH (assuming the expected point return from a given game is (chance of winning)*(2 points)) and their remaining schedule. I figure this is as good a thread as any to share the resultant "Expected Final Standings". Keep in mind that this doesn't account for home/away games or momentum, so it's in no way perfect.
Standings
1. Cornell (30)
2. Union (29)
3. Colgate (28)
4. Harvard (25)
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5. Quinnipiac (24)
6. Dartmouth (23)
7. Clarkson (22)
8. Yale (19)
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9. Princeton (19)
10. Brown (18)
11. St. Lawrence (15)
12. RPI (12)
Note: All point values are rounded to the nearest point. As such, while some teams may appear to be tied, even though this is not the case (i.e., Yale and Princeton appear to be tied at 19, but in actuality, Yale (19.23) is beating Princeton (18.95) by a small margin).Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
This is pretty fascinating stuff.
I hope Union doesn't let me down after I re-arranged things to free up 3/10 for a potential quarterfinals game 2 at Messa. Just need a top 4 finish so they get that first round bye. *crosses fingers*Leave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Thanks a lot for getting the Press Hop Rap stuck in my head... We sittin' here, I'm supposed to be the franchise player, and we in here talkin' 'bout practice...Originally posted by TimU View PostLeave a comment:
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Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
Playoffs!!! Are you kiddin' me?!?!? Playoffs?!?!?!? Don't talk about playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Signed,
St. Lawrence fans.Leave a comment:
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ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12
It's about that time again. There's four weeks left in the season with every team having seven, eight, or nine games remaining.
So, I'll try and put up a post fairly soon after the conclusion of a day's games. Each post has the current standings (by points%, not pure points), remaining league schedules, and a breakdown of why each team is limited in the way that it is. Eventually, it'll get to the point where the potential tiebreakers are much more interesting than the range itself, so that's what I'll do for the last week or so.
--- Bye Lock - 30
--- Home Lock - 25+
UC 21 - 35 [1-12]
Cornell 19 - 35 [1-12]
Colgate 17 - 33 [1-12]
CCT 15 - 31 [1-12]
Harvard 16 - 30 [1-12]
DC 13 - 31 [1-12]
QU 14 - 30 [1-12]
Yale 13 - 29 [1-12]
Brown 12 - 28 [1-12]
PU 12 - 26 [1-12]
SLU 9 - 25 [1-12]
RPI 9 - 25 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 19+
--- Home Eligible - 15
Clarkson holds 4th over Harvard on the basis of the game in hand.
Dartmouth and Quinnipiac are tied for 6th place. DC beat QU in New Hampshire to start the season, so they hold the tiebreaker.
St. Lawrence holds the tiebreaker over RPI based on the Pts vs Top 8 criteria.
Remaining League Schedules:
So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status kinda sucks.Code:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | T 1/31 | F 2/3 | S 2/4 | F 2/10 | S 2/11 | F 2/17 | S 2/18 | F 2/24 | S 2/25 | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | UC | | Colgate | Cornell | @DC | | PU | QU | @Cornell | @Colgate | | Cornell | | @RPI | @UC | Brown | Yale | @CCT | @SLU | UC | RPI | | Colgate | | @UC | @RPI | Yale | Brown | @SLU | @CCT | RPI | UC | | CCT | | @Brown | @Yale | PU | QU | Cornell | Colgate | @DC | @Harvard | | Harvard | DC | @QU | | RPI | | @Brown | @Yale | SLU | CCT | | DC | @Harvard | @PU | @QU | UC | RPI | @Yale | @Brown | CCT | SLU | | QU | | Harvard | DC | @SLU | @CCT | @RPI | @UC | Brown | Yale | | Yale | | SLU | CCT | @Colgate | @Cornell | DC | Harvard | @PU | @QU | | Brown | | CCT | SLU | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard | DC | @QU | @PU | | PU | | DC | | @CCT | @SLU | @UC | @RPI | Yale | Brown | | SLU | | @Yale | @Brown | QU | PU | Colgate | Cornell | @Harvard | @DC | | RPI | | Cornell | Colgate | @Harvard | @DC | QU | PU | @Colgate | @Cornell | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shockingly, every single team can finish in every place from 1st to 12th, inclusive. Is Union likely to drop all the way to 12th? No. Especially since it would require at least a 3-way tie at 21 points. RPI and SLU can still take sole possession of the Cleary Cup at 25 points (and potentially less, I didn't explore it in too much depth).
Thresholds:
Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. Currently, I believe it sits at 30 points. Four teams each with 30 and a 5th at 29. I've currently got the Clarkson / Colgate / Cornell / Dartmouth / Union quintet occupying those five places.
Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. It's an 8-way tie for 4th, with Cornell, Colgate, and Union ahead of the pack and RPI trailing with 17 points. Currently, with the sequence of games that I use to get to this specific tie, SLU wins the tiebreaker with 17 points earned against the other teams.
Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. I have it at 25 points plus the required tiebreakers. It's another congested six-way tie (Brown / Clarkson / Colgate / Dartmouth / Harvard / Yale) with Dartmouth being left out. It ends up coming down to Colgate / Dartmouth with them splitting the season series and Colgate having 12 wins vs Dartmouth's 10.
Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. Yale can still finish in 8th place with just two more points. Dartmouth, Brown, and St. Lawrence all finish with 14 points and RPI also finishes with less than 15, meaning that the Elis still get an extra pair of home games.
Thanks for reading. I hope that this was useful and that it helps shed some light on the playoff race as we head down the road towards Atlantic City.
Leave a comment: