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ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

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  • #31
    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Your final "Expected Standings":
    1. Union (32)
    2. Cornell (31)
    3. Colgate (25)
    4. Clarkson (24)
    -----
    5. Harvard (23)
    6. Quinnipiac (23)
    7. St. Lawrence (21)
    8. Yale (21)
    -----
    9. Dartmouth (19)
    10. Princeton (17)
    11. Brown (14)
    12. RPI (14)

    Again, not much difference between the current standings and the projected standings. I say final because there won't be much use in posting them again between games next weekend. I'm sure everyone can figure out who will be favored in a given match-up and figure it out from there.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

    Comment


    • #32
      Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

      Current KRACH Simulation: (57,460 trials, straight 13.2% tie percentage)
      Code:
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      | Team         |  1st |  2nd |  3rd |  4th |  5th |  6th |  7th |  8th |  9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | ExpPl |
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      | Union        | 68.9 | 31.1 |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |  1.31 |
      | Cornell      | 31.1 | 68.9 |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |  1.69 |
      | Colgate      |      |      | 63.0 | 29.2 |  5.8 |  1.9 |  0.2 |      |      |      |      |      |  3.47 |
      | Clarkson     |      |      | 16.4 | 32.3 | 23.2 | 22.2 |  5.3 |  0.6 |      |      |      |      |  4.69 |
      | Harvard      |      |      | 18.5 | 21.6 | 20.0 | 20.6 | 11.1 |  7.3 |  0.9 |      |      |      |  5.10 |
      | Quinnipiac   |      |      |  1.9 | 13.1 | 29.2 | 26.3 | 16.4 | 12.3 |  0.9 |      |      |      |  5.82 |
      | St. Lawrence |      |      |  0.3 |  3.2 | 12.0 | 15.3 | 32.9 | 15.2 | 21.2 |      |      |      |  7.08 |
      | Yale         |      |      |      |  0.5 |  9.7 | 13.0 | 27.6 | 43.6 |  5.6 |      |      |      |  7.21 |
      | Dartmouth    |      |      |      |      |  0.0 |  0.8 |  6.6 | 21.2 | 60.1 | 11.2 |  0.2 |      |  8.75 |
      | Princeton    |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      | 11.2 | 69.7 | 18.1 |  1.0 | 10.09 |
      | Rensselaer   |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |  0.1 |  1.0 | 50.1 | 48.8 | 11.48 |
      | Brown        |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |      | 18.1 | 31.7 | 50.2 | 11.32 |
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      ExpPl = Expected Place     Dartmouth finished in 5th place in 10 of 57,460 trials
      Last edited by burgie12; 02-19-2012, 09:29 PM.
      Go Red!!

      National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

      Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

      Comment


      • #33
        Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

        Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
        Current KRACH Simulation: (57,460 trials, straight 13.2% tie percentage)
        Using this simulation, would it be possible to put together a table of the likelihoods of each potential pairing for first-round matchups? Obviously one way to do it would be the simple (Team A, 5th)*(Team B, 12th)+(Team A, 6th)*(Team B 11th)..., but that could be inaccurate if the scenarios that put A in 5th all required B to take 10th (or something like that). I just ask because I think it would be interesting (and nice to know where I'll be spending that weekend).
        RPI Pep Band
        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

        Comment


        • #34
          Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

          Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
          Using this simulation, would it be possible to put together a table of the likelihoods of each potential pairing for first-round matchups?
          The simulation is set up to save the place and number of points earned for each team. So, yes, it can. But, I foolishly deleted the info for each of those individual 57,460 trials and just have the overall places.

          I will run this again overnight and take the info from those 65,533 runs (65,535 row limit and a 2-row header) and post the expected playoff match-ups.
          Go Red!!

          National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

          Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

          Comment


          • #35
            Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

            That sounds awesome. Thanks!
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #36
              Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

              Legend:
              Code:
              T1 = 1st Team (team leading coming in)
              T2 = 2nd Team (team trailing coming in)
              T3... etc.
              
              Pt = # of points earned by each team when they tie
                 XX = # of points / how the tie is earned does not matter
                      (tiebreaker is already clinched)
              Win = Winning Team
              Crit = Criteria
                 H2H = Head-to-head points
                 Wins = # ECAC Wins
                 PvT4 = Points vs Top 4
                 PvT8 = Points vs Top 8
                 H2HGD = Head-to-head goal differential
                 GDvT4 = Goal Differential vs Top 4 teams
                 GDvT8 = Goal Differential vs Top 8 teams
              T1P = Points earned by Team 1 in *Criteria*
              T2P = Points earned by Team 2 in *Criteria*
              Other = Other pertinent information to the tie (how the tie is earned)
                 "XX-YY" = XX Ties YY
                 "XX>YY" = XX Defeats YY
                 "XX=T4" = XX will be a Top 4 team
                 "XX=T8" = XX will be a Top 8 team
                 "XXN" = XX earns exactly N points
                 "XXN+" = XX earns N or more points
                 "XXN-" = XX earns N or fewer points
                 If a tie is already clinched, 
                    then the final # of points in *Criteria* may not
                    be exactly as listed.  It can also be anything listed in "Other"
              Team Abbreviations:
              Code:
              BN = Brown
              CK = Clarkson
              CG = Colgate
              CR = Cornell
              DA = Dartmouth
              HA = Harvard
              PN = Princeton
              QN = Quinnipiac
              RP = Rensselaer
              SL = St. Lawrence
              UN = Union
              YA = Yale
              2-way Tiebreakers:
              Code:
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | T1 | T2 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P| Other             |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | UN | CR | 32 ||  CR ||  H2H | 1 | 3 |                   |
              | UN | CR | 31 ||  UN || Wins |13 |12 | UN-CR CG>UN CR>RP |
              | UN | CR | 31 ||  CR ||  H2H | 1 | 3 | CR>UN CG-UN CR-RP |
              | UN | CR | 30 ||  CR ||  H2H | 1 | 3 |                   |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | CG | CK | XX ||  CG || Wins |12 |11 | 12v10 11v10 11v9  |
              | CG | HA | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 1 | 3 |                   |
              | CG | QN | XX ||  CG || Wins |11 |10 | 11v9              |
              | CG | SL | XX ||  CG || PvT4 | 6 | 0 | 8v4               |
              | CG | YA | XX ||  CG || PvT4 | 7 | 6 | 6v4               |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | T1 | T2 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P| Other             |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | CK | HA | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 0 | 4 | 1v3               |
              | CK | QN | XX ||  QN ||  H2H | 1 | 3 |                   |
              | CK | SL | XX ||  CK ||  H2H | 4 | 0 |                   |
              | CK | YA | XX ||  YA || Wins | 9 |10 | 9v11              |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | HA | QN | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 3 | 1 |                   |
              | HA | SL | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 1 | 3 | 0v4               |
              | HA | DA | XX ||  DA || Wins | 6 | 9 |                   |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | T1 | T2 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P| Other             |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | QN | SL | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 0 | 4 |                   |
              | QN | YA | 22 ||  QN ||  H2H | 3 | 1 | QN-YA QN-BN YA>PN |
              | QN | YA | 22 ||  YA || Wins | 9 |10 | YA>QN QN>BN YA-PN |
              | QN | YA | 21 ||  QN ||  H2H | 3 | 1 | QN-YA BN>QN YA-PN |
              | QN | YA | 21 ||  YA || Wins | 9 |10 | YA>QN QN-BN PN>YA |
              | QN | DA | 21 ||  DA || Wins | 8 | 9 |                   |
              | QN | DA | 20 ||  QN || PvT4 | 6 | 3 | BN>QN YA>QN DA-CK |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | DA>SL CG=T4 CK=T4 |
              | QN | DA | 20 ||  QN || PvT4 | 6 | 4 | BN>QN YA>QN DA>CK |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | DA-SL CG=T4 CK=T4 |
              | QN | DA | 20 ||  QN || PvT4 | 5 | 2 | BN>QN YA>QN DA>CK |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | DA-SL SL>HA HA>CK |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | YA>PN CG1+        |
              | QN | DA | 20 ||  QN || PvT8 |11 | 7 | BN>QN YA>QN DA-CK |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | DA>SL HA>SL CG=T4 |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | HA=T4             |
              | QN | DA | 20 ||  QN || GDT4 |-7 |-15| BN>QN YA>QN DA>CK |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | DA-SL CG=T4 HA=T4 |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | T1 | T2 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P| Other             |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | SL | YA | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 3 | 1 |                   |
              | SL | DA | XX ||  DA ||  H2H | 1 | 3 | 0v4               |
              | SL | PN | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 4 | 0 |                   |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | YA | DA | XX ||  YA ||  H2H | 4 | 0 |                   |
              | YA | PN | XX ||  YA || Wins | 9 | 8 |                   |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | DA | PN | XX ||  DA ||  H2H | 3 | 1 |                   |
              | DA | RP | XX ||  RP || PvT4 | 2 | 5 | 4v7 4v5 2v3       |
              | DA | BN | XX ||  DA ||  H2H | 4 | 0 |                   |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | T1 | T2 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P| Other             |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | PN | RP | XX ||  PN ||  H2H | 4 | 0 |                   |
              | PN | BN | 17 ||  BN || PvT4 | 6 | 7 | 6v8 4v9 4v8       |
              | PN | BN | 16 ||  PN ||  H2H | 3 | 1 | YA>PN BN>QN BN-PN |
              | PN | BN | 16 ||  BN || PvT4 | 6 | 7 | YA-PN BN-QN BN>PN |
              |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   | 6v8 4v9 4v8       |
              | PN | BN | 15 ||  BN || PvT4 | 6 | 7 | 6v8 4v9 4v8       |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              | RP | BN | XX ||  RP ||  H2H | 4 | 0 |                   |
              -----------------------------------------------------------
              Last edited by burgie12; 02-20-2012, 02:27 AM.
              Go Red!!

              National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

              Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

              Comment


              • #37
                Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                The teams that don't win any multi-way tiebreaker will have the tiebreaker restarted with just the remaining teams. For example, in the Colgate / Clarkson / Harvard tie, Harvard wins the three-way tie. Clarkson earned the second-most points between the three teams, but loses the head-to-head tiebreaker against Colgate and would therefore finish third in that tie, not second.
                3-way Tiebreakers:
                Code:
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P|T3P| Other             |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | CG | CK | HA | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3v2v7             |
                | CG | CK | QN | XX ||  QN ||  H2H | 4 | 3 | 5 |                   |
                | CG | CK | SL | XX ||  CK ||  H2H | 4 | 6 | 2 |                   |
                | CG | CK | YA | XX ||CG/YA|| Wins |11 | 9 |11 |                   |
                | CG | HA | QN | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 3 | 6 | 3 |                   |
                | CG | HA | SL | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 3 | 3 | 6 |                   |
                | CG | HA | YA | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 3 | 5 | 4 |                   |
                | CG | QN | SL | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 4 | 2 | 6 |                   |
                | CG | SL | YA | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 4 | 3 | 5 |                   |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P|T3P| Other             |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | CK | HA | QN | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1v4v7             |
                | CK | HA | SL | XX ||  SL || Wins | 9 | 7 |11 |                   |
                | CK | HA | YA | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2v6v4             |
                | CK | QN | SL | XX ||  CK ||  H2H | 5 | 3 | 4 |                   |
                | CK | QN | YA | XX ||  QN ||  H2H | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3v6v3             |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P|T3P| Other             |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | HA | QN | SL | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3v1v8             |
                | HA | QN | YA | XX ||  HA ||  H2H | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5v3v4             |
                | HA | SL | YA | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2v7v3             |
                | HA | SL | DA | XX ||  DA ||  H2H | 2 | 4 | 6 |                   |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P|T3P| Other             |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | QN | SL | YA | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3v7v2 2v7v3       |
                | QN | SL | DA | 21 ||  DA ||  H2H | 2 | 4 | 6 |                   |
                | QN | SL | DA | 20 ||SL/DA||  H2H | 2 | 5 | 5 | SL-DA DA>CK HA>SL |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   |   | BN>QN YA>QN       |
                | QN | SL | DA | 20 ||  DA ||  H2H | 2 | 4 | 6 | DA>SL DA-CK SL-HA |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   |   | BN>QN YA>QN       |
                | QN | YA | DA | 21 ||QN/YA||  H2H | 5 | 2 | 5 | QN-YA BN>QN DA>SL |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||      |   |   |   | DA>CK YA-PN       |
                | QN | YA | DA | 21 ||  YA ||  H2H | 4 | 2 | 6 | YA>QN QN-BN DA>SL |
                | QN | YA | DA | 21 ||  YA ||  H2H | 4 | 2 | 6 | DA>CK PN>YA       |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | Pt || Win || Crit |T1P|T2P|T3P| Other             |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | SL | YA | DA | XX ||  YA ||  H2H | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3v5v4             |
                | SL | YA | PN | XX ||  SL ||  H2H | 7 | 3 | 2 |                   |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | YA | DA | PN | XX ||  YA ||  H2H | 6 | 3 | 3 |                   |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | DA | PN | RP | XX ||DA/PN||  H2H | 5 | 5 | 2 |                   |
                | DA | PN | BN | XX ||  DA ||  H2H | 7 | 3 | 2 |                   |
                | DA | RP | BN | XX ||DA/RP||  H2H | 6 | 6 | 0 |                   |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                | PN | RP | BN | XX ||  PN ||  H2H | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7v4v1             |
                --------------------------------------------------------------------
                4-way Tiebreakers: (H2H is the Criteria in all wins)
                Code:
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 || Win ||T1P|T2P|T3P|T4P| Other             |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | CG | CK | HA | QN ||  HA || 5 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 5v3v10v6          |
                | CG | CK | HA | SL ||  HA || 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 |                   |
                | CG | CK | HA | YA ||  HA || 5 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5v4v9v6           |
                | CG | CK | QN | SL ||  CK || 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 |                   |
                | CG | CK | SL | YA ||  CK || 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 |                   |
                | CG | HA | QN | SL ||  SL || 5 | 6 | 3 |10 |                   |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | CK | HA | QN | SL ||  SL || 5 | 7 | 4 | 8 |                   |
                | CK | QN | SL | YA ||CK/SL|| 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | QN-YA QN-BN YA>PN |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | leads to QN/YA tie|
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | at 22 points won  |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | by QN on H2H (3-1)|
                | CK | QN | SL | YA ||CK/SL|| 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | QN-YA QN-BN YA>PN |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | leads to QN/YA tie|
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | at 22 points won  |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | by YA on Wins     |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | (9-10)            |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 || Win ||T1P|T2P|T3P|T4P| Other             |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | HA | QN | SL | YA ||  SL || 6 | 3 |10 | 5 | 6v4v10v4 5v3v11v5 |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | 5v4v11v4          |
                | HA | QN | SL | DA ||SL/DA|| 5 | 3 | 8 | 8 |                   |
                | HA | QN | YA | DA ||  YA || 7 | 5 | 8 | 4 | SL>HA CK>HA QN-BN |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | YA>QN PN>YA DA>CK |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | DA>SL             |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | creates a 5-way   |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | tie won by SL     |
                | HA | QN | YA | DA ||HA/YA|| 7 | 6 | 7 | 4 | SL>HA CK>HA BN>QN |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | YA-QN YA-PN DA>CK |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | DA>SL             |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | creates a 5-way   |
                |    |    |    |    ||     ||   |   |   |   | tie won by SL     |
                | HA | SL | YA | DA ||SL/YA|| 4 | 7 | 6 | 7 |                   |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 || Win ||T1P|T2P|T3P|T4P| Other             |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | QN | SL | YA | DA ||  SL || 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 |                   |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | SL | YA | DA | PN ||S/Y/D|| 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 |                   |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                | DA | PN | RP | BN ||  DA || 9 | 7 | 6 | 2 |                   |
                -----------------------------------------------------------------
                5-way Tiebreakers: (H2H is the Criteria in all wins)
                Code:
                -------------------------------------------------------------------
                | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 || Win ||T1P|T2P|T3P|T4P|T5P| Other      |
                -------------------------------------------------------------------
                | CG | CK | HA | QN | SL ||HA/SL|| 7 | 7 |10 | 6 |10 |            |
                | HA | QN | SL | YA | DA ||  SL || 7 | 5 |11 | 9 | 8 | 7v6v11v8v8 |
                -------------------------------------------------------------------
                Last edited by burgie12; 02-21-2012, 01:10 PM. Reason: forgot the Dartmouth- and Princeton-headed 3-way ties
                Go Red!!

                National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                Comment


                • #38
                  Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                  Potential First-Round Match-ups: (15,491 Trials, straight 13.2% tie chance)
                  Code:
                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |    |  HA  |  QN  |  SL  |  YA  |  DA  |  PN  |  RP  |  BN  || HOST |
                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                  | CG |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.3 |  2.5 |  4.5 ||  7.3 |
                  | CK |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.6 |  7.7 | 24.3 | 18.9 || 51.5 |
                  | HA | XXXX |  0.2 |  0.0 |  0.6 |  8.5 | 11.3 | 22.3 | 16.3 || 59.1 |
                  | QN |  0.0 | XXXX |  0.7 |  0.0 | 12.1 | 17.2 | 23.9 | 30.3 || 84.2 |
                  | SL |  0.3 |  0.6 | XXXX |  4.1 | 15.2 | 25.2 | 15.3 | 14.7 || 75.5 |
                  | YA |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.8 | XXXX | 35.1 | 32.5 | 11.5 | 14.0 || 93.9 |
                  | DA |  0.7 |  0.1 | 19.4 |  0.9 | XXXX |  5.8 |  0.3 |  1.3 || 28.5 |
                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                  |ROAD|  1.0 |  0.9 | 20.9 |  5.6 | 71.5 |100.0 |100.0 |100.0 ||15491 |
                  ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Every match-up that has a probability of 0.0 did not occur in any of the 15,491 trials. I have no idea if any of them are possible and just didn't happen or actually cannot occur.

                  The difference between 100% and the sum of "ROAD" and "HOST" is the probability that the team gets a bye.

                  lugnut, start checking out the hotels in the beautiful metropolis of Potsdam.
                  Go Red!!

                  National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                  Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                    Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
                    lugnut, start checking out the hotels in the beautiful metropolis of Potsdam.
                    Here, I'll make it easy: Stay at the casino just outside Massena. You have a 40% chance of being there, with about the same chances of winning something.
                    Last edited by FlagDUDE08; 02-20-2012, 01:45 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                      Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
                      Potential First-Round Match-ups: (15,491 Trials, straight 13.2% tie chance)
                      Code:
                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                      |    |  HA  |  QN  |  SL  |  YA  |  DA  |  PN  |  RP  |  BN  || HOST |
                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                      | CG |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.3 |  2.5 |  4.5 ||  7.3 |
                      | CK |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.6 |  7.7 | 24.3 | 18.9 || 51.5 |
                      | HA | XXXX |  0.2 |  0.0 |  0.6 |  8.5 | 11.3 | 22.3 | 16.3 || 59.1 |
                      | QN |  0.0 | XXXX |  0.7 |  0.0 | 12.1 | 17.2 | 23.9 | 30.3 || 84.2 |
                      | SL |  0.3 |  0.6 | XXXX |  4.1 | 15.2 | 25.2 | 15.3 | 14.7 || 75.5 |
                      | YA |  0.0 |  0.0 |  0.8 | XXXX | 35.1 | 32.5 | 11.5 | 14.0 || 93.9 |
                      | DA |  0.7 |  0.1 | 19.4 |  0.9 | XXXX |  5.8 |  0.3 |  1.3 || 28.5 |
                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                      |ROAD|  1.0 |  0.9 | 20.9 |  5.6 | 71.5 |100.0 |100.0 |100.0 ||15491 |
                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Every match-up that has a probability of 0.0 did not occur in any of the 15,491 trials. I have no idea if any of them are possible and just didn't happen or actually cannot occur.

                      The difference between 100% and the sum of "ROAD" and "HOST" is the probability that the team gets a bye.

                      lugnut, start checking out the hotels in the beautiful metropolis of Potsdam.
                      Any special reason for running 15,491 trials?
                      sigpic

                      Let's Go 'Tute!

                      Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                      2012 Poser Of The Year

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                        Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                        Any special reason for running 15,491 trials?
                        Dunno, but that's the ID# of the Project Gutenberg eBook titled "Micrographia: Physiological Descriptions of Minute Bodies Made by Magnifying Glasses with Observations and Inquiries Thereupon."

                        Seems like a fair enough title for this arcane project!

                        If you don't change the world today, how can it be any better tomorrow?

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                          Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                          Dunno, but that's the ID# of the Project Gutenberg eBook titled "Micrographia: Physiological Descriptions of Minute Bodies Made by Magnifying Glasses with Observations and Inquiries Thereupon."

                          Seems like a fair enough title for this arcane project!

                          It is divisible by 7.
                          sigpic

                          Let's Go 'Tute!

                          Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                          2012 Poser Of The Year

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                            Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                            Dunno, but that's the ID# of the Project Gutenberg eBook titled "Micrographia: Physiological Descriptions of Minute Bodies Made by Magnifying Glasses with Observations and Inquiries Thereupon."

                            Seems like a fair enough title for this arcane project!

                            If you are a Brown fan it could be titled A Future look at the Impossible Dream.
                            YALE HOCKEY
                            2013 National Champions

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                              Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
                              If you are a Brown fan it could be titled A Future look at the Impossible Dream.
                              Wasn't Brown the ONLY bottom seed to lose a first round series last year?

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                                Originally posted by sshablak View Post
                                Are you serious lol ?
                                How do you sleep at night ? Or don't you ?
                                They learn from the USCHO godfather.

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