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ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

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  • #16
    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Originally posted by sshablak View Post
    How do you judge the outcomes of the last four games ?
    KRACH has a formula to determine the probability of a team winning a game against a specific other team. Therefore, since it's 2 points for a win, they take that probability, multiply it by 2, and add it to the current point total.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

      I've been using KRACH to find the number of points a team can expect to take from a game. For example, take Colgate's upcoming game against St. Lawrence. We can find the probability that Colgate will win the game by dividing Colgate's KRACH by the combined KRACHs of the two teams. With current KRACH rankings, that gives Colgate about a 66.45% chance of winning the game. Given that each game awards two points, they can expect to get about 1.33 points from the game. The biggest problem with this system is that it doesn't really account for momentum, meaning that SLU's recent four-game winning streak isn't taken into account. There is also no adequate way to consider for home-ice advantage. As such, my expected rankings are in no way perfect, just a prediction of what is "likely" to happen.

      EDIT: Thanks for explaining it first, FlagDUDE.
      RPI Pep Band
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      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

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      • #18
        Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

        Hooray! No more games in hand. No more wibbly-wobbliness (sorry, I've been watching a lot of Doctor Who recently). Just four games left and then the playoffs can start.

        --- Bye Lock - 27
        Union 26 - 34 [1-5]
        Cornell 25 - 33 [1-7]
        Colgate 23 - 31 [1-7]
        --- Home Lock - 22+
        Harvard 20 - 28 [1-11]
        Clarkson 19 - 27 [1-11]
        Quinnipiac 18 - 26 [2-12]
        St. Lawrence 17 - 25 [2-12]
        Yale 15 - 23 [4-12]
        Dartmouth 15 - 23 [3-12]
        Princeton 13 - 21 [4-12]
        Rensselaer 13 - 21 [4-12]
        --- Bye Eligible - 21
        Brown 12 - 20 [5-12]
        --- Home Eligible - 16+

        Yale beat Dartmouth in Hanover a couple weeks ago and therefore hold the tiebreaker. They'll play each other on Friday to solidify who will hold onto this spot. For now, the Bulldogs hold onto 8th.

        Princeton beat RPI in New Jersey in December and therefore wins the tiebreaker. These teams will also play each other next weekend.

        Remaining League Schedules:
        Code:
        ---------------------------------------------
        |              |    |F2/17|S2/18|F2/24|S2/25|
        ---------------------------------------------
        | Union        | UC |  PN |  QN | @CR | @CG |
        | Cornell      | CR | @CK | @SL |  UN |  RP |
        | Colgate      | CG | @SL | @CK |  RP |  UN |
        | Harvard      | HA | @BN | @YA |  SL |  CK |
        | Clarkson     | CK |  CR |  CG | @DA | @HA |
        | Quinnipiac   | QN | @RP | @UN |  BN |  YA |
        | St. Lawrence | SL |  CG |  CR | @HA | @DA |
        | Yale         | YA |  DA |  HA | @PN | @QN |
        | Dartmouth    | DA | @YA | @BN |  CK |  SL |
        | Princeton    | PN | @UN | @RP |  YA |  BN |
        | Rensselaer   | RP |  QN |  PN | @CG | @CR |
        | Brown        | BN |  HA |  DA | @QN | @PN |
        ---------------------------------------------
        Miscellaneous Links:
        Sioux Sports what-if calculator (no tiebreakers)
        TBRW ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script
        ECAC Tie-Breaking Guidelines
        Playoff Status Standings with (terrible, inaccurate, and unexplained) predictions for final standings

        Individual Team Limits:
        Teams Losing Out (Floors)
        Union's floor is still fifth place. There can be a three-way tie for fourth place. And, they wouldn't finish third in any of those ties. With Quinnipiac winning the supposed tiebreaker, Union has not clinched a bye (yet). With Union having swept Clarkson, the Knights' performance doesn't matter all that much. If the Bobcats lose a point, though, that will be enough for the Dutchmen to secure a weekend off.

        Cornell has also clinched home-ice. They can fall to 7th place if it's a three-way tie for fifth place between Clarkson, SLU, and the Big Red. Clarkson wins the H2H (7 v 3 (Cornell) v 2 (SLU)) and then the Saints win the battle for 6th place on ECAC wins (12 v 10) after splitting the season series.

        Colgate is guaranteed an extra pair of home games, too. They can only fall as far as 7th place. Either Yale or Dartmouth, but not both (because of their game on Friday) can catch the Raiders. And, Colgate can't lose a tiebreaker to either team (they'd win on ECAC wins over Dartmouth and Points vs Top 4 over Yale because I can't find a way to push Cornell out of the Top 4 if we're also pushing teams past Colgate). So, Colgate can only drop down to 7th as a result. Congratulations on clinching home-ice.

        Harvard can still fall all the way to 11th. It would come down to a three-way tie for 9th with Princeton and RPI. Princeton would win the H2H portion (5 points v 4 (Harvard) v 3 (RPI)) and then the Harvard / RPI tie would go to the Engineers on ECAC wins (8 v 6).

        Clarkson can fall into a three-way tie for 10th with any variety of teams, but I can't see a way for them to lose that tie. So, instead, I'll push them down to 11th by themselves.

        Quinnipiac and everyone below them can fall down to 12th.

        Teams Winning Out (Ceilings)
        Brown's loss means they can only climb as high as 5th. With Harvard and Clarkson having a game left against each other, the Bears can only catch one of them.

        RPI still maintains the slimmest of hopes of finishing in 4th position. If they can end up in a tie with Harvard at 21 points, they would share 4th place, but the Engineers would get the benefit of the extra weekend off (season series was a pair of ties, RPI wins on ECAC wins; 9 v 6).

        Princeton is in the same situation as RPI, except they have split with both Harvard and Clarkson. They would win either tiebreaker (wins against Harvard, points vs Top 4 against Clarkson).

        Dartmouth can climb to 3rd, but only if they can get another team tied with them and Colgate (preferably SLU, then they'd win the H2H 6 points v 4 (Colgate) v 2 (SLU)).

        There are no "beneficial" "third teams" for Yale. The Bulldogs can catch, but not pass the Raiders and would lose the tiebreaker on Points vs Top 4 (Colgate swept Cornell and Princeton can only gain two points against Union). So, Yale's ceiling is 4th place.

        SLU can move into a tie with Cornell and would win a tiebreaker against the Big Red on ECAC wins (12 v 10) after the season split. Therefore, the Saints can move all the way up to 2nd.

        With Cornell's win yesterday and the remaining game between the Dutchmen and Big Red, Quinnipiac can no longer finish in 1st place. Quinnipiac can finish by themselves in 2nd or in a tie with Union. Either way, they'd claim the #2 seed.

        Similar to the Bobcats, Clarkson can no longer claim the Cup for themselves. At least one of Union and Cornell has to finish with 27 points. The Knights would prefer that it's the Big Red that win the match-up against Union in Ithaca on the final weekend. CCT wins the tiebreaker with Cornell based on winning the season series. Therefore, Clarkson can still finish with the #1 seed.

        Each of the Top 4 can claim the Cleary Cup for themselves.

        Thresholds:
        Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slips down to 27 after last night's games. Union / Cornell / Colgate all with at least 28, Clarkson and Harvard with 26 and 27 (in some order) make up the Top 5.

        Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. Alright. So, with Union, Cornell, and Colgate all with at least 21 and Clarkson and Harvard lined up to play each other in the regular season finale, you need at least 21 points to take a weekend off. If you're outside of the Top 5 trying to move up, you may need to be able to win tiebreakers, but if you're in the Top 5, 21 flat is enough.

        Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It drops another full point to 22 points plus necessary tiebreakers. I got it with Dartmouth and Yale tied at 22 points with Princeton, Brown, and RPI all below the two Ivies. Yale would get to host the Big Green based on the season series win.

        Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. The bottom teams keep pulling "upsets" and this number keeps on moving up. It's now at 16 points plus tiebreakers. I got it with Dartmouth, Princeton, and Yale tied at 16 points (Yale wins the H2H tiebreaker 5 points v 4 (Dartmouth) v 3 (Princeton)) and Brown and RPI tied for 11th with 15 points.

        That's all for today. The teams are too close and the results are too variable for me to start going into any tiebreakers other than the extreme ones (Union / Quinnipiac, Brown / Quinnipiac, etc.). We'll see what happens after Friday's games. I may start looking into them then. In the meantime, enjoy the games.
        Last edited by burgie12; 02-13-2012, 07:34 AM. Reason: deleted extra Quinnipiac line
        Go Red!!

        National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

        Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

          Bumpity bump bump. Maybe now Brian will be able to find the thread.
          Go Red!!

          National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

          Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

            Word.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

              I think this is something that I'm going to add to my run-downs.

              Here are the probabilities of team's finishing in each of the twelve places if a team's likelihood of winning is based upon current KRACH.

              There are multiple caveats with this.

              1) KRACH is a retrodictive, not predictive, system.
              2) I used a straight tie percentage of 13.0% (approximately the rate of ties in men's college hockey over the past few years).
              3) A team's likelihood of winning is the normal win percentage (KRACH(1) / [KRACH(1) + KRACH(2)]) minus half of the tie percentage.
              4) There were only 2500 trials run (which, really, is a pretty low number).
              5) KRACH is not updated with the completion of a game (so if, for example, Brown were to win their first three games, one would assume that their KRACH would go up and they may even be favored in their game against Princeton).

              Some of these caveats can be seen in the data. A percentage of 0.0 means that that finish occurred exactly once in 2500 trials. A percentage of "xxxx" means that that finish can happen, but did not occur.

              One final note is that this is sorted by current standings, not projected standings (like lugnut's predictions are).

              Code:
              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              | Team         |  1st |  2nd |  3rd |  4th |  5th |  6th |  7th |  8th |  9th | 10th | 11th | 12th |
              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              | Union        | 56.8 | 29.1 | 13.6 |  0.3 |  0.1 |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |
              | Cornell      | 34.3 | 43.8 | 20.3 |  1.6 |  0.0 | xxxx | xxxx |      |      |      |      |      |
              | Colgate      |  8.8 | 26.1 | 49.7 | 14.1 |  1.1 |  0.2 | xxxx |      |      |      |      |      |
              | Harvard      | xxxx |  0.9 | 15.0 | 62.0 | 14.0 |  5.5 |  2.2 |  0.4 | xxxx | xxxx | xxxx |      |
              | Clarkson     | xxxx |  0.0 |  0.6 | 10.2 | 22.4 | 39.2 | 18.4 |  6.6 |  2.2 |  0.2 | xxxx |      |
              | Quinnipiac   |      | xxxx |  0.6 |  9.5 | 50.1 | 23.4 | 11.1 |  4.1 |  1.0 |  0.2 | xxxx | xxxx |
              | St. Lawrence |      | xxxx |  0.0 |  1.7 |  7.3 | 15.5 | 35.3 | 25.1 | 11.7 |  3.2 |  0.2 | xxxx |
              | Yale         |      |      |      |  0.3 |  1.8 |  5.2 | 12.3 | 28.7 | 27.4 | 17.4 |  6.2 |  0.8 |
              | Dartmouth    |      |      | xxxx |  0.2 |  3.2 | 10.2 | 18.4 | 22.7 | 26.4 | 13.2 |  4.5 |  1.2 |
              | Princeton    |      |      |      | xxxx |  0.0 |  0.6 |  1.7 |  8.4 | 19.7 | 37.0 | 18.8 | 13.8 |
              | Rensselaer   |      |      |      | xxxx | xxxx |  0.1 |  0.2 |  2.0 |  5.7 | 16.0 | 43.7 | 32.3 |
              | Brown        |      |      |      |      | xxxx |  0.2 |  0.4 |  2.0 |  5.9 | 12.9 | 26.6 | 51.9 |
              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Last edited by burgie12; 02-14-2012, 04:05 PM. Reason: Caveat 5
              Go Red!!

              National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

              Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                Current Standings:
                --- Bye Lock - 27
                Union 26 - 34 [1-5]
                Cornell 25 - 33 [1-7]
                Colgate 23 - 31 [1-7]
                --- Home Lock - 22+
                Harvard 20 - 28 [1-11]
                Clarkson 19 - 27 [1-11]
                Quinnipiac 18 - 26 [2-12]
                St. Lawrence 17 - 25 [2-12]
                Yale 15 - 23 [4-12]
                Dartmouth 15 - 23 [3-12]
                Princeton 13 - 21 [4-12]
                Rensselaer 13 - 21 [4-12]
                --- Bye Eligible - 21
                Brown 12 - 20 [5-12]
                --- Home Eligible - 16+

                Yale beat Dartmouth in Hanover a couple weeks ago and therefore hold the tiebreaker. They'll play each other on Friday to solidify who will hold onto this spot. For now, the Bulldogs hold onto 8th.

                Princeton beat RPI in New Jersey in December and therefore wins the tiebreaker. These teams will also play each other next weekend.

                Remaining League Schedules:
                Code:
                ---------------------------------------------
                |              |    |F2/17|S2/18|F2/24|S2/25|
                ---------------------------------------------
                | Union        | UC |  PN |  QN | @CR | @CG |
                | Cornell      | CR | @CK | @SL |  UN |  RP |
                | Colgate      | CG | @SL | @CK |  RP |  UN |
                | Harvard      | HA | @BN | @YA |  SL |  CK |
                | Clarkson     | CK |  CR |  CG | @DA | @HA |
                | Quinnipiac   | QN | @RP | @UN |  BN |  YA |
                | St. Lawrence | SL |  CG |  CR | @HA | @DA |
                | Yale         | YA |  DA |  HA | @PN | @QN |
                | Dartmouth    | DA | @YA | @BN |  CK |  SL |
                | Princeton    | PN | @UN | @RP |  YA |  BN |
                | Rensselaer   | RP |  QN |  PN | @CG | @CR |
                | Brown        | BN |  HA |  DA | @QN | @PN |
                ---------------------------------------------
                Current KRACH Simulation: (2500 trials, 13.0% straight tie percentage)
                Code:
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                | Team         |  1st |  2nd |  3rd |  4th |  5th |  6th |  7th |  8th |  9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | ExPl |
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                | Union        | 56.8 | 29.1 | 13.6 |  0.3 |  0.1 |      |      |      |      |      |      |      |  1.58 |
                | Cornell      | 34.3 | 43.8 | 20.3 |  1.6 |  0.0 | xxxx | xxxx |      |      |      |      |      |  1.89 |
                | Colgate      |  8.8 | 26.1 | 49.7 | 14.1 |  1.1 |  0.2 | xxxx |      |      |      |      |      |  2.73 |
                | Harvard      | xxxx |  0.9 | 15.0 | 62.0 | 14.0 |  5.5 |  2.2 |  0.4 | xxxx | xxxx | xxxx |      |  4.16 |
                | Clarkson     | xxxx |  0.0 |  0.6 | 10.2 | 22.4 | 39.2 | 18.4 |  6.6 |  2.2 |  0.2 | xxxx |      |  5.93 |
                | Quinnipiac   |      | xxxx |  0.6 |  9.5 | 50.1 | 23.4 | 11.1 |  4.1 |  1.0 |  0.2 | xxxx | xxxx |  5.52 |
                | St. Lawrence |      | xxxx |  0.0 |  1.7 |  7.3 | 15.5 | 35.3 | 25.1 | 11.7 |  3.2 |  0.2 | xxxx |  7.24 |
                | Yale         |      |      |      |  0.3 |  1.8 |  5.2 | 12.3 | 28.7 | 27.4 | 17.4 |  6.2 |  0.8 |  8.56 |
                | Dartmouth    |      |      | xxxx |  0.2 |  3.2 | 10.2 | 18.4 | 22.7 | 26.4 | 13.2 |  4.5 |  1.2 |  8.22 |
                | Princeton    |      |      |      | xxxx |  0.0 |  0.6 |  1.7 |  8.4 | 19.7 | 37.0 | 18.8 | 13.8 | 10.03 |
                | Rensselaer   |      |      |      | xxxx | xxxx |  0.1 |  0.2 |  2.0 |  5.7 | 16.0 | 43.7 | 32.3 | 10.98 |
                | Brown        |      |      |      |      | xxxx |  0.2 |  0.4 |  2.0 |  5.9 | 12.9 | 26.6 | 51.9 | 11.18 |
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Miscellaneous Links:
                Sioux Sports what-if calculator (no tiebreakers)
                TBRW ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script
                ECAC Tie-Breaking Guidelines
                Playoff Status Standings with (terrible, inaccurate, and unexplained) predictions for final standings

                So, I'm going to the Sabres game tonight and then spending the evening with family, so this is going to be more of a "pre-update." I'll probably have a short follow-up either very late tonight or mid-morning tomorrow. I will have a full rundown after Saturday's games chock full of all of the delicious goodness that you expect.

                Also, I'm warning you now that I will be travelling and working the next two weeks, so it is very unlikely that I have an update going into the last game. Sorry, guys.

                Individual Team Limits:
                Clinching Scenarios
                Union clinches a bye with any point earned tonight or any point lost by Quinnipiac.

                Any point earned by Cornell tonight against Clarkson will also clinch them a bye.

                Colgate can only clinch a bye tonight with a win, a Clarkson loss, and a Quinnipiac loss (I think). A Harvard loss (instead of a Clarkson loss) helps, but doesn't clinch a Top 4 spot for the Raiders. A Quinnpiac tie (instead of a loss) leaves Colgate on the cusp of clinching a weekend off, but still leaves some doubt.

                Harvard clinches home-ice with a win and a non-tie in the Dartmouth / Yale game tonight.

                Clarkson clinches home-ice with a win and losses by SLU and Dartmouth.

                I don't think Quinnipiac can clinch home-ice tonight, but they can put themselves very, very close with a win, losses by Dartmouth and SLU, and non-wins by Princeton and Brown.

                Out of the Running
                Harvard is out of contention for the #1 seed with any point lost by them or gained by Union or Cornell.

                Clarkson is out of contention for the #1 seed with any point lost by them or gained by Union.

                Yale can't grab a bye if they lose and neither Harvard nor Clarkson lose OR if the Bulldogs tie and both Harvard and Clarkson win.

                Dartmouth is in the same position as Yale. So, a Dartmouth / Yale tie tonight could push both of them out of the running.

                Princeton is cannot finish in 4th or higher place if they lose a point OR Harvard or Clarkson gains a point OR a St. Lawrence win OR Quinnipiac wins and Dartmouth / Yale is not a tie.

                Same with RPI, except that the Quinnipiac win scenario is already covered by RPI losing points.
                Go Red!!

                National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                  New "Expected Standings":
                  1. Union (32)
                  2. Cornell (30)
                  3. Colgate (27)
                  4. Harvard (25)
                  -----
                  5. Quinnipiac (23)
                  6. Clarkson (23)
                  7. St. Lawrence (22)
                  8. Yale (20)
                  -----
                  9. Dartmouth (18)
                  10. Princeton (16)
                  11. Brown (15)
                  12. RPI (15)

                  So, the only difference between these standings and the real standings is the sequence of 11 and 12, which would break the other way based on RPI's season sweep. Also, RPI can do no better than 8th now. Sadface.
                  RPI Pep Band
                  GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                  🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                  2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                  2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                  2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                    Union 28 - 34 [1-3]
                    Cornell 26 - 32 [1-4]
                    --- Bye Lock - 26+
                    Colgate 23 - 29 [1-7]
                    --- Home Lock - 21+
                    Harvard 21 - 27 [2-9]
                    Quinnipiac 20 - 26 [3-9]
                    Clarkson 20 - 26 [2-9]
                    St. Lawrence 19 - 25 [3-9]
                    Yale 17 - 23 [4-11]
                    --- Bye Eligible - 22
                    Dartmouth 15 - 21 [5-12]
                    Princeton 13 - 19 [8-12]
                    Rensselaer 13 - 19 [7-12]
                    Brown 13 - 19 [8-12]
                    --- Home Eligible - 17

                    Quinnipiac took three points from Clarkson and holds 5th place on the series win.

                    Princeton is winning the H2H tiebreaker between themselves, RPI, and Brown (2-0-0 vs 2-1-0 (RPI) vs 0-3-0 (Brown)). RPI swept Brown and holds 11th place. The RPI / Princeton tiebreaker will be solidified tonight.

                    Remaining League Schedules:
                    Code:
                    ---------------------------------------------
                    |              |    |S2/18|F2/24|S2/25|
                    ---------------------------------------------
                    | Union        | UC |  QN | @CR | @CG |
                    | Cornell      | CR | @SL |  UN |  RP |
                    | Colgate      | CG | @CK |  RP |  UN |
                    | Harvard      | HA | @YA |  SL |  CK |
                    | Quinnipiac   | QN | @UN |  BN |  YA |
                    | Clarkson     | CK |  CG | @DA | @HA |
                    | St. Lawrence | SL |  CR | @HA | @DA |
                    | Yale         | YA |  HA | @PN | @QN |
                    | Dartmouth    | DA | @BN |  CK |  SL |
                    | Princeton    | PN | @RP |  YA |  BN |
                    | Rensselaer   | RP |  PN | @CG | @CR |
                    | Brown        | BN |  DA | @QN | @PN |
                    ---------------------------------------------
                    Current KRACH Simulation: (5000 trials, 13.2% straight tie percentage)
                    Code:
                    Nope, I didn't have time to run this.  Fooled you, didn't I?
                    Miscellaneous Links:
                    Sioux Sports what-if calculator (no tiebreakers)
                    TBRW ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script
                    ECAC Tie-Breaking Guidelines
                    Playoff Status Standings with (terrible, inaccurate, and unexplained) predictions for final standings

                    Individual Team Limits:
                    Teams Losing Out (Floors)
                    Union's moved their floor up to 3rd. They could be passed by both teams from central New York, but that's it.

                    Cornell has also clinched a bye. They swept Quinnipiac and hold the tiebreaker over Harvard since they took three points on the season series. They would lose a tiebreaker to Clarkson, but since Harvard and Clarkson still have to play, it is impossible for the Knights to tie the Big Red and have the Crimson overtake them. So, with Cornell already behind Union and within passing distance of Colgate and either Harvard or Clarkson but not both, Schafer's men have earned themselves a weekend off.

                    Colgate can still only fall as far as 7th place. Yale can catch Colgate, but would fail to win any potential tiebreaker.

                    Harvard (since they lose so many gosh-darn tiebreakers) can fall as far as 9th place. Dartmouth can still tie their travel partner in points and would win a tiebreaker on ECAC wins.

                    Quinnipiac and Clarkson can be passed outright all the way down to Dartmouth. So, the Bobcats and Knights can still fall to 9th place.

                    St. Lawrence can be caught and passed (all at the same time) by every team down to Dartmouth. They can also be tied by either Brown and RPI or by just Princeton. However, the Saints hold the tiebreaker over each of the bottom three teams (ECAC wins over Brown and RPI, season series sweep over Princeton). So, the Saints' floor is also 9th place.

                    Yale can fall to 11th place. They can be passed by two of the three teams tied for 10th (and tied by the other). Since Yale holds the tiebreaker over each of Princeton, RPI, and Brown (all on ECAC wins), the Elis' floor is 11th.

                    Each of the bottom 4 teams can finish by themselves in 12th place.

                    Teams Winning Out (Ceilings)
                    Brown can still pull themselves into 8th place. They can get up to a tie with St. Lawrence, but would lose the tiebreaker on ECAC wins. The Bears do not have any "beneficial third teams" that they can have also tie with the Saints that would allow Brown to leapfrog SLU.

                    RPI can leapfrog SLU if Brown also ends up tied with 19 points. They would then win the H2H tiebreaker (3-1-0 vs 2-2-0 (SLU) vs 1-3-0 (Brown)). That means that RPI has the mathematical capability of 7th place.

                    Princeton, like Brown, can not leapfrog SLU (especially since they got swept by St. Lawrence). So, their ceiling is also 8th place.

                    Dartmouth can catch Harvard, but doing so would allow multiple other teams to catch and / or pass the Big Green. So, in letting the Crimson win out, Dartmouth can stay ahead of everyone currently in between them and Harvard in the standings and grab the #5 seed.

                    Yale can claim the #4 seed, just behind Colgate and just ahead of Clarkson (with Harvard and Quinnipiac both behind them) if they get lots of help.

                    St. Lawrence can climb past every team in front of them all the way up to 3rd place. (They can no longer catch Cornell because of their tie last night with Clarkson.)

                    Clarkson can still catch and tie Cornell and would win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins. They lost their chance to win the Cleary Cup (not that it was likely anyways), but they can still finish with the #2 seed.

                    Quinnipiac can catch Cornell, but would lose the resulting tiebreaker on H2H record and cannot bring in a "beneficial third team", so they can only grab the #3 seed.

                    Harvard can outright pass Cornell, handing them the #2 seed, and Union is out of reach for the Crimson.

                    Each of Colgate, Cornell, and Union can claim the Cleary Cup for themselves. So, they're all maxed out at the #1 seed.

                    Thresholds:
                    Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. I can get Quinnipiac and Clarkson into a tie for 4th place with 26 points each. So, to guarantee yourself a weekend off, you need at least 26 points and the correct tiebreakers.

                    Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. With Harvard in 4th place at 21 points with a game to play against Clarkson (who has 20 points), you need at least 22 points to finish with the #4 seed.

                    Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It drops yet another full point to 21 points plus necessary tiebreakers. If someone with a better record against Dartmouth were sitting with 21 points right now, they would have home-ice in the bag.

                    Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. Yale (with 17 points) can lose out and still have another couple of games at home.

                    After tonight's games I will look into tiebreakers and "best case" / "interesting" scenarios.
                    Go Red!!

                    National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                    Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                      Union 30 - 34 [1-2]
                      Cornell 28 - 32 [1-2]
                      --- Bye Lock - 25
                      Colgate 23 - 27 [3-7]
                      Clarkson 22 - 26 [3-8]
                      --- Home Lock - 21+
                      Harvard 21 - 25 [3-9]
                      Quinnipiac 20 - 24 [3-9]
                      St. Lawrence 19 - 23 [3-9]
                      Yale 19 - 23 [4-9]
                      --- Bye Eligible - 23
                      Dartmouth 17 - 21 [5-11]
                      --- Home Eligible - 19+
                      Princeton 15 - 19 [9-12]
                      Rensselaer 13 - 17 [9-12]
                      Brown 13 - 17 [10-12]

                      St. Lawrence holds the tiebreaker for 7th place based on their season series win with a win in New Haven and a tie back in Canton.

                      RPI swept Brown and holds 11th place because of it.

                      Remaining League Schedules:
                      Code:
                      ---------------------------------
                      |              |    |F2/24|S2/25|
                      ---------------------------------
                      | Union        | UC | @CR | @CG |
                      | Cornell      | CR |  UN |  RP |
                      | Colgate      | CG |  RP |  UN |
                      | Clarkson     | CK | @DA | @HA |
                      | Harvard      | HA |  SL |  CK |
                      | Quinnipiac   | QN |  BN |  YA |
                      | St. Lawrence | SL | @HA | @DA |
                      | Yale         | YA | @PN | @QN |
                      | Dartmouth    | DA |  CK |  SL |
                      | Princeton    | PN |  YA |  BN |
                      | Rensselaer   | RP | @CG | @CR |
                      | Brown        | BN | @QN | @PN |
                      ---------------------------------
                      Miscellaneous Links:
                      Sioux Sports what-if calculator (no tiebreakers)
                      TBRW ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script
                      ECAC Tie-Breaking Guidelines
                      Playoff Status Standings with (terrible, inaccurate, and unexplained) predictions for final standings

                      Individual Team Limits:
                      Teams Losing Out (Floors)
                      Union can only be caught by Cornell. The Dutchmen have clinched at least the #2 seed.

                      Cornell cannot be caught by any team behind them. They have also clinched at least the #2 seed.

                      Colgate can still fall all the way to 7th place. It is possible for Clarkson and Quinnipiac to both pass Colgate and have a three-way SLU / Harvard / Colgate tie. Since SLU would have to beat Harvard to make this tie possible, SLU would win the H2H tie (6 points vs 3 vs 3) and Harvard would win the resulting tie for 6th with the season series win (1-0-1 vs 0-1-1).

                      Both Quinnipiac and Yale hold tiebreakers over Clarkson (season series win for the Bobcats and ECAC wins for the Bulldogs), so Clarkson can be passed / tied all the way down to 8th place.

                      Harvard can fall into a 3-way tie for 7th place with SLU and Dartmouth and would finish with the #9 seed and would be travelling to Canton for their first playoff series this season. (Dartmouth wins the three-way tie 6 points vs 4 vs 2 and SLU wins the H2H matchup with Harvard on their season sweep.)

                      Quinnipiac can be passed outright by everyone below them through Dartmouth. Therefore, the Bobcats can also fall to the #9 seed.

                      St. Lawrence and Yale both hold the tiebreaker over Princeton (SLU by their season sweep and Yale by ECAC wins) and I can't find a way to add a third team in the mix to let the Tigers leapfrog either team. So, SLU and Yale both have floors of 9th place.

                      Dartmouth can no longer fall into the basement. They swept Brown and will not be able to lose a tiebreaker to the Bears. They would lose a tiebreaker to RPI on Points vs Top 4 (RPI would have to beat Cornell and Colgate, giving them 3 points against Cornell (a guaranteed Top 4 team) and cancelling out Dartmouth's advantage from their win over Colgate. Dartmouth would not be able to put in two other teams that would allow them to come back from their three-point disadvantage in this criteria.) and can therefore finish in the #11 seed.

                      Princeton, RPI, and Brown can all finish in 12th place.

                      Teams Winning Out (Ceilings)
                      Brown cannot win a tiebreaker against Dartmouth and can only climb to 10th place because of it.

                      RPI can beat Dartmouth in a tiebreaker and can therefore reach the #9 seed. However, they are still assured of playing no more home games this season.

                      Princeton will not win a tiebreaker against Yale or SLU by themselves and I cannot find a third team to pair either of them with to allow the Tigers to leapfrog either team. So, Princeton's home slate will end after this upcoming weekend because they cannot finish any higher than 9th.

                      A Dartmouth / SLU / Harvard / Quinnipiac tie for 5th place would break in that exact order (8 points (DC) vs 8 (SLU) vs 5 (HU) vs 3 (QU) with Dartmouth winning the H2H against SLU and Harvard beating Quinnipiac for 7th), so Dartmouth still has the slimmest of hopes of finishing in 5th.

                      Yale cannot win a tiebreaker against Colgate for 3rd place. The Raiders would win based on their season sweep of the Big Red (giving them the win on Points vs Top 4). Also, I can't find a "beneficial third team" to push Yale over the top. However, Yale can put themselves into a tie with either Clarkson or Harvard and pass every other team standing between them. The Elis would own the tiebreaker over either the Knights or Crimson on ECAC wins, meaning that a two-way tie for 4th with either team lands Yale in the #4 seed. A Harvard / Colgate / Yale tie would break in that exact order, so if Yale does end up tied at 23 points with Harvard, it would be best if Colgate didn't also wind up with 23.

                      St. Lawrence, however, would like to tie with Harvard. That season sweep over Harvard looms large and also functions as the extra points needed to put the Saints into the #3 seed. (Three-way tie between SLU, Harvard, and Colgate breaks in that order on H2H points (6 vs 3 vs 3) and then Harvard won the season series against Colgate and claims 4th.)

                      Everyone from Quinnipiac through Colgate (so, currently seeds 3-6) can all finish in third place by themselves.

                      Either Cornell or Union (or both?) will win the Cleary Cup and either of them could claim the #1 seed.

                      Thresholds:
                      Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. If Clarkson and Harvard both win on Friday and Colgate picks up at least a couple points this weekend, then either Tech or Harvard will be in with 25 points while the other will be sitting on the outside looking in with 24.

                      Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. With Clarkson in 4th place at 22 points with a game to play against Harvard (who has 21 points), you need at least 23 points to finish with the #4 seed.

                      Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It holds steady after last night's games at 21 points plus necessary tiebreakers. If someone with a better record against Dartmouth were sitting with 21 points right now, they would have home-ice in the bag (yes, I'm looking at you, Harvard).

                      Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. Yale (with 19 points) can lose out and still have another couple of games at home. Since Princeton has failed to earn a tiebreaker win against SLU, Yale, or Dartmouth, the requisite "you have to have the correct tiebreakers" quote goes in here.
                      Last edited by burgie12; 02-19-2012, 04:27 PM. Reason: fixed the Yale ceiling paragraph
                      Go Red!!

                      National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                      Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                        How would Yale lose a tie-break against Harvard for 4th place? They split the season series, and if they end up tied at 23 pts Harvard would have no more than 7 ECAC wins while the Bulldogs would have 11.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                          I should have done the tiebreakers before I did this post. It would've helped. Tiebreakers will be up later / tomorrow / later in the week.

                          Best-case scenarios:
                          Union (1st place)
                          1) Defeat or tie Cornell
                          2) Lose to Cornell but earn more points on Saturday against Colgate than Cornell does against RPI

                          Cornell (1st place)
                          1) Defeat Union and earn at least as many points on Saturday against RPI as Union does against Colgate.
                          Note: Cornell can still earn a share of the Cleary Cup with a tie against Union. However, they would no longer be able to claim the #1 seed.

                          Colgate (3rd place)
                          1) Earn at least 3 points
                          2) Earn 2 points AND neither Clarkson nor Harvard earns 4 points
                          3) Earn 1 point AND Clarkson also finishes with 24 points AND both Harvard and Quinnipiac finish with 23 points or fewer (just for you, Ralph)
                          4) Earn 1 point AND both Clarkson and Harvard finish with 23 points or fewer
                          5) Earn 0 points AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND both Clarkson and Harvard lose on Friday (to Dartmouth and SLU, respectively) AND Quinnipiac earns 2 or fewer points AND St. Lawrence does not defeat Dartmouth

                          Clarkson (3rd place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 2 or fewer points
                          2) Earn 3 points AND Colgate earns 1 or fewer points
                          3) Defeat Harvard AND lose to Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                          4) Tie Harvard AND tie Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard does not defeat SLU AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                          5) Lose to Harvard AND defeat Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard loses to SLU AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                          6) Tie Harvard AND lose to Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND SLU defeats Harvard and Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points

                          Harvard (3rd place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 2 or fewer points
                          2) Defeat Clarkson AND tie SLU AND Colgate earns 1 or fewer points
                          3) Tie Clarkson AND defeat SLU AND Colgate earns 1 or fewer points AND Clarkson does not defeat Dartmouth
                          4) Defeat Clarkson and lose to SLU AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson ties Dartmouth AND SLU defeats Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac earns 2 or fewer points
                          5) Defeat Clarkson and lose to SLU AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson loses to Dartmouth AND SLU does not defeat Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points

                          Quinnipiac (3rd place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 1 point AND Clarkson earns 2 points AND Harvard earns 2 or fewer points
                          2) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson earns 2 or fewer points AND Harvard earns 2 or fewer points
                          3) Earn 3 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND Clarkson and Harvard lose on Friday AND SLU does not defeat Dartmouth

                          St. Lawrence (3rd place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND Clarkson ties Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac earns 3 points
                          2) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND Clarkson loses to Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points

                          Yale (4th place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 1 or more points AND Harvard does not defeat Clarkson AND Clarkson and Harvard lose on Friday (to Dartmouth and SLU, respectively) AND SLU does not defeat Dartmouth
                          2) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND Clarkson and Harvard lose on Friday AND SLU does not defeat Dartmouth

                          Dartmouth (5th place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Harvard earns 0 points AND Quinnipiac ties Yale AND Quinnipiac and Yale lose on Friday (to Brown and Princeton, respectively)

                          Princeton (9th place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Dartmouth earns 1 or fewer points
                          2) Earn 3 points AND Dartmouth earns 0 points

                          Rensselaer (9th place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND Dartmouth earns 0 points AND Princeton earns 1 or fewer points

                          Brown (10th place)
                          1) Earn 4 points AND RPI does not earn 4 points
                          2) Defeat Princeton AND tie Quinnipiac AND Princeton does not defeat Yale AND RPI earns 2 or fewer points
                          Go Red!!

                          National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                          Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                            The race for a bye:
                            Colgate (Bye)
                            1) Earn at least 2 points
                            2) Earn 1 point AND Clarkson defeats Harvard
                            3) Earn 1 point AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND Harvard does not defeat SLU on Friday
                            4) Earn 1 point AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND Harvard defeats SLU on Friday AND Clarkson ties Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            5) Earn 1 point AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND Harvard defeats SLU on Friday AND Clarkson loses to Dartmouth
                            6) Earn 1 point AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND SLU defeats Harvard on Friday
                            7) Earn 1 point AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND SLU does not defeat Harvard AND Clarkson does not defeat Dartmouth
                            8) Earn 1 point AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND SLU does not defeat Harvard AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points

                            Clarkson (Bye)
                            1) Earn at least 3 points
                            2) Defeat Harvard AND lose to Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points
                            3) Defeat Harvard AND lose to Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            4) Tie Harvard AND tie Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard does not defeat SLU
                            5) Tie Harvard AND tie Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            6) Tie Harvard AND tie Dartmouth AND Harvard does not defeat SLU AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            7) Lose to Harvard AND defeat Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard loses to SLU
                            8) Lose to Harvard AND defeat Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            9) Lose to Harvard AND defeat Dartmouth AND Harvard loses to SLU AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            10) Tie Harvard AND lose to Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND SLU defeats Harvard and Dartmouth
                            11) Tie Harvard AND lose to Dartmouth AND SLU defeats Harvard and Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            12) Lose to Harvard AND tie Dartmouth AND Colgate earns 0 points AND SLU defeats Harvard and Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac earns 2 or fewer points

                            Harvard (Bye)
                            1) Earn 4 points
                            2) Defeat Clarkson AND tie SLU
                            3) Tie Clarkson AND defeat SLU AND Colgate earns 1 or fewer points
                            4) Tie Clarkson AND defeat SLU AND Clarkson does not defeat Dartmouth
                            5) Defeat Clarkson AND lose to SLU AND Colgate earns at least 1 point AND neither Clarkson nor SLU defeats Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            6) Defeat Clarkson AND lose to SLU AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson defeats Dartmouth AND SLU does not defeat Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            7) Defeat Clarkson AND lose to SLU AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson ties Dartmouth
                            8) Defeat Clarkson AND lose to SLU AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson loses to Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            9) Defeat Clarkson AND lose to SLU AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson and SLU lose to Dartmouth

                            Quinnipiac (Bye)
                            1) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 2 or more points AND Clarkson and Harvard earn 2 or fewer points each
                            2) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 1 point AND Clarkson earns 2 points
                            3) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 1 point AND Clarkson earns 1 or fewer points AND Harvard earns 2 or fewer points
                            4) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson earns 3 or more points AND Harvard earns 2 or fewer points
                            5) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson earns 2 or fewer points
                            6) Earn 3 points AND Colgate earns 1 or more points AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND Clarkson and Harvard lose on Friday AND SLU does not defeat Dartmouth
                            7) Earn 3 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Clarkson ties Harvard AND Clarkson loses to Dartmouth AND St. Lawrence does not earn 4 points

                            St. Lawrence (Bye)
                            1) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 1 or more points AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND Clarkson ties Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac earns 3 points
                            2) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 1 or more points AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND Clarkson loses to Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            3) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND Clarkson defeats Dartmouth AND Quinnipiac does not earn 4 points
                            4) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard defeats Clarkson AND Clarkson loses to Dartmouth
                            5) Earn 4 points AND Colgate earns 0 points AND Harvard does not defeat Clarkson AND Quinnipiac earns 3 points

                            The race for home-ice:
                            Harvard (Home-ice)
                            1) Earn 1 or more points
                            2) Dartmouth does not earn 4 points
                            3) Yale earns 1 or fewer points
                            4) Quinnipiac earns 1 or fewer points

                            Quinnipiac (Home-ice)
                            1) Earn 2 or more points
                            2) Earn 1 point AND Dartmouth does not earn 4 points
                            3) Earn 1 point AND Dartmouth earns 4 points AND SLU does not defeat Harvard
                            4) Tie Yale AND lose to Brown AND Yale loses to Princeton
                            5) Tie Yale AND lose to Brown AND Yale ties Princeton AND Clarkson does not defeat Harvard
                            6) Earn 0 points AND Dartmouth earns 4 points AND SLU loses to Harvard
                            7) Earn 0 points AND Dartmouth defeats Clarkson AND Dartmouth ties SLU AND SLU does not lose to Harvard
                            8) Earn 0 points AND Dartmouth ties Clarkson AND Dartmouth defeats SLU AND SLU does not tie Harvard
                            9) Earn 0 points AND Dartmouth earns 2 or fewer points

                            St. Lawrence (Home-ice)
                            1) Earn 3 or more points
                            2) Defeat Dartmouth
                            3) Tie Dartmouth AND lose to Harvard AND Dartmouth does not defeat Clarkson
                            4) Tie Dartmouth AND lose to Harvard AND Yale earns 0 points
                            5) Earn 0 points AND Dartmouth does not lose to Clarkson AND Yale earns 0 points

                            Yale (Home-ice)
                            1) Earn 2 or more points
                            2) Earn 1 point AND Dartmouth does not earn 4 points
                            3) Earn 1 point AND SLU does not defeat Harvard
                            4) Earn 0 points AND Dartmouth earns 2 or fewer points

                            Dartmouth (Home-ice)
                            It's a mess and my brain is fried. Earn 4 points and you're in. Beat SLU and come into that game two or less points behind them and I can't find a way to keep you out. Otherwise, good luck.
                            Go Red!!

                            National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                            Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                              Originally posted by Yale13 View Post
                              How would Yale lose a tie-break against Harvard for 4th place? They split the season series, and if they end up tied at 23 pts Harvard would have no more than 7 ECAC wins while the Bulldogs would have 11.
                              Good call. I originally had it as a three-way tie between Colgate, Yale, and (Clarkson / Harvard). Harvard wins that three-way tiebreaker and would push Yale down to 5th. Yale would finish second in a three-way tie that involved Clarkson (Clarkson loses the three-way on wins and then Colgate wins the head-to-head matchup against Yale on Points vs Top 4) and therefore grab the #4 seed. That was the original intent of my post and then I changed around the words and presented false info. Thank you for catching that.
                              Go Red!!

                              National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                              Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

                                Are you serious lol ?
                                How do you sleep at night ? Or don't you ?
                                It all starts with the goaltending.

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