University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Well, that was a disappointing outcome tonight. Overall, UND is 7th in the WCHA standings and faces a crucial series with SCSU this upcoming weekend. I don't think a sweep is a likely result, but a split is a must. At the end of the day, UND has 12 WCHA regular season games left. 8 wins probably gets home ice, so where do those 8 wins come from?

@ St. Cloud State - as stated, 2 points is a must...anything more would be gravy
vs Wisconsin - this is looking more and more like a necessary sweep.
@ Duluth - the bulldogs are playing great right now (despite the loss tonight) and probably want to enact some revenge on UND from last season. it is hard to imagine anything more than 2 here, and getting swept is possible.
vs Tech - this series is almost a must need sweep. if UND sweeps Wisconsin and takes a game from Duluth (or sweep SCSU) then they may have a bit of wiggle room.
@ Denver - another very difficult place to get points. again, anything more than 2 is difficult to foresee, but a split is doable if UND plays well.
vs Mankato - must sweep. anything less would be extremely disappointing.

Where do the 8 wins come from? I think sweeps of Mankato and either Wisconsin or Tech (with the other series being a split) gets UND to 5. A split with Denver and SCSU gets UND to 7. That leaves the Duluth series to get a split. If they fail in Duluth, then UND needs to either sweep out at home, or sweep either Denver or SCSU.

Ultimately, I think North Dakota gets the 8 wins, putting them at 16-12-0 in WCHA play (32 points) and likely hosting a first round series (32 points would have been good for 5th last season). It would also put them at 20-13-4, and likely on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. As a result, North Dakota would likely have to at least win the first round series (against a team like SCSU, Tech, Bemidji or Wisconsin) of the WCHA Tournament, and perhaps make a run to the title game.

It all starts this upcoming weekend at St. Cloud. UND generally outplayed the Huskies earlier in the year, but they need to get healthy. 4 points is doable, but unlikely. 2 points is almost a necessity. Hopefully the team is able to regroup and refocus after tonight, and give St. Cloud everything they have.

It sure was a disappointing loss, but a split was not a bad result. Here's how I see it for the Sioux to have a shot at making the tournament - and still may need to win the Broadmoor. Sweep SCSU, Bucky, Tech and Mankato, and split with UMD and Denver. Sweeps against SCSU and Bucky will be hard - SCSU on the road and Bucky swept us earlier this year. Tech is not a given but it is at home. If you can't sweep Mankato, go home. Splits at UMD and Denver look like great outcomes. Even if they don't win 10 games home ice for the WCHA playoffs could get them to the Final Five and a Broadmoor win. No more injuries!

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

It sure was a disappointing loss, but a split was not a bad result. Here's how I see it for the Sioux to have a shot at making the tournament - and still may need to win the Broadmoor. Sweep SCSU, Bucky, Tech and Mankato, and split with UMD and Denver. Sweeps against SCSU and Bucky will be hard - SCSU on the road and Bucky swept us earlier this year. Tech is not a given but it is at home. If you can't sweep Mankato, go home. Splits at UMD and Denver look like great outcomes. Even if they don't win 10 games home ice for the WCHA playoffs could get them to the Final Five and a Broadmoor win. No more injuries!

I like your optimism.

If North Dakota wins 10 of the 12, then they would almost assuredly be on the right side of the NCAA bubble, and perhaps a 3rd or 4th place standing in the WCHA (36 points was good for 3rd last year). It would also give the Sioux a 22-11-2 record, including a 4-1-2 non-conference record. I have not crunched any numbers, but I would think that would probably land North Dakota somewhere in the low #2 seed to high #3 seed range.

Either way, a sweep over SCSU would be absolutely huge for our NCAA hopes. Also, I agree, it sure would be nice to stay healthy for a change...

[licwinko]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I love this

[jerryj]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Before or after Rau meets Ben Blood?

comment was made in the preseason. talk about foreshadowing..

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Well, that was a disappointing result tonight. Tomorrow night becomes a must win situation for North Dakota, as UND is slipping further and further back in both the WCHA standings and the Pairwise standings. North Dakota has just had too many injuries this year...it's really too bad because the Kristo-Knight-Nelson line is something special.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Whew. I got a "kick" out of Dell's postgame comments about the disallowed goal. When asked whether or not he knew that the goal was kicked in, Dell responded with "I've seen more subtle kicks in soccer".

The win puts us back at .500 in WCHA play, and back at least in contention for the Pairwise. This next weekend is huge for North Dakota. If UND can sweep Wisconsin, North Dakota will be in a good position for home ice, and could potentially see themselves on the cusp of the top 15 of the Pairwise. Hopefully the guys can heal up some, and it would be nice to see Forbort back in action. 4 points isn't a "must", but it is about as close to a "must" as you can get without crossing that line.

For now though, I'll enjoy tonight's victory.

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Whew. I got a "kick" out of Dell's postgame comments about the disallowed goal. When asked whether or not he knew that the goal was kicked in, Dell responded with "I've seen more subtle kicks in soccer".

The win puts us back at .500 in WCHA play, and back at least in contention for the Pairwise. This next weekend is huge for North Dakota. If UND can sweep Wisconsin, North Dakota will be in a good position for home ice, and could potentially see themselves on the cusp of the top 15 of the Pairwise. Hopefully the guys can heal up some, and it would be nice to see Forbort back in action. 4 points isn't a "must", but it is about as close to a "must" as you can get without crossing that line.

For now though, I'll enjoy tonight's victory.

I will enjoy the win too. Four points next weekend is a must!

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I will enjoy the win too. Four points next weekend is a must!

Basically we need to get four points between next weekend and @ Duluth. If we could somehow get 6, it could be a sign that we have what it takes to sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Basically we need to get four points between next weekend and @ Duluth. If we could somehow get 6, it could be a sign that we have what it takes to sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

I have already put us down for 6 points.

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Basically we need to get four points between next weekend and @ Duluth. If we could somehow get 6, it could be a sign that we have what it takes to sneak into the NCAA Tournament.

I don't believe 4 points will be enough in the next two weekends, although that may be about as many as we likely can get.

You go back to Jim Dahl's first comments on the subject in early January. An 11-4 record over the second half of the regular season would put UND "quite likely" in the 10-13 range. You don't want to be below 13. He suggested they "could" make the tournament by winning as few as 8-9 games, with a decent WCHA tournament run, but that would be dicey.

They've gone 3-2 since that time. They really need to go 8-2 over these last 10. The WCHA traditionally produces a lot of splits in the second half of conference play, and an 8-2 run would have the added benefit of jumping them up the standings.

8-2 will be hard, but it's within their reach. Sweep at home and split on the road will get it done. It has to start this weekend.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I don't believe 4 points will be enough in the next two weekends, although that may be about as many as we likely can get.

You go back to Jim Dahl's first comments on the subject in early January. An 11-4 record over the second half of the regular season would put UND "quite likely" in the 10-13 range. You don't want to be below 13. He suggested they "could" make the tournament by winning as few as 8-9 games, with a decent WCHA tournament run, but that would be dicey.

They've gone 3-2 since that time. They really need to go 8-2 over these last 10. The WCHA traditionally produces a lot of splits in the second half of conference play, and an 8-2 run would have the added benefit of jumping them up the standings.

8-2 will be hard, but it's within their reach. Sweep at home and split on the road will get it done. It has to start this weekend.

IMO, they need to go 7-3 in their last ten. Win their first round series, and then we'll see what happens at the Final Five. Jim Dahl's projections from 15 games out was 3 weeks ago, and I imagine that it has changed quite a bit since then. I'm sure he'll update it soon, as he usually does a great job figuring out what North Dakota needs to do to finish in a respective position. That being said, my main point was to get home ice, as I think regardless of what we finish (minus perhaps 10-0) that we'll need to win our first round series and make it to st paul to have a shot at the NCAAs this year.

That being said, being in the top 14 or 15 may not be enough this year. To get the auto bid, a team may have to realistically finish in the top 13 because currently only 1 ECAC team is in the tourney field. If Cornell doesn't win their tourney (and assuming they stay in the top 12 that they are currently in) that means that #15 gets chopped. Further, only 3-4 WCHA teams are currently in, so if one of the outsiders happens to take the WCHA title (or if a similar thing happens in Hockey East) then you are looking at #14 being on the wrong side of the bubble. I think #13 means you are probably safe in the tournament. So, how do we get to #13? Without having looked to in-depth at the data, I think if we can go 7-3 (splits w/Wisconsin, Duluth, and Denver, sweeps over Mankato and Tech), win our First round series (likely against SCSU, Wisconsin, or Tech), and then win a game in the Final Five. That gives a record of 10-4 or 10-5 (depending if the first round series goes 2 or 3 games) and an overall record of 23-14-2 (or 23-15-2). Depending on what happens elsewhere, that probably gets us into the tournament.

Obviously, it would be better to go 8-2, sweep the first round series, and make the championship game (giving us a record of 25-13-2), but IMO that is not likely. I think UND is a bit too shallow in all areas to sweep 3 of the final 5 series. Mankato is the easiest of the three, but Wisconsin and Tech will be difficult series. Duluth will be a difficult matchup for North Dakota, and I think UND will struggle to get a point that weekend. North Dakota hasn't won in Denver in awhile, and the Pios have a pretty good team that is starting to gel together. Anything can happen, and we are capable of playing well. That being said, I think it is more likely that we go 6-4 or 5-5 in our last ten than 8-2. I hope I'm way off on that though.

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I think 6-4 is the likely finish to the regular season. That should get them home ice. If they advance to St. Paul, I think they will need to make the championship game, minimum, to secure a bid.

[darker98]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Is there a clip of St Clouds disallowed goal? I'm curious to look at it.

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Is there a clip of St Clouds disallowed goal? I'm curious to look at it.

There is one posted on the UND @ SCSU thread.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I think 6-4 is the likely finish to the regular season. That should get them home ice. If they advance to St. Paul, I think they will need to make the championship game, minimum, to secure a bid.

It is definitely a tough road in for North Dakota this year. Jim Dahl has his PWR forecast up for this week, and according to him they would need to go 8-2 to nearly secure a bid (obviously not taking into account tournament play. If they went 8-2, it looks like they would be a top 13 seed about 80% of the time, and a top 15 seed about 95% of the time, with a #11 seed the most likely spot. If they go 7-3, it looks like they would be a top 13 seed about 20-25% of the time, and a top 15 seed about 55-60% of the time, with a #15 seed the most likely spot. Obviously, North Dakota can improve (or fall) depending on their performance in the WCHA Tournament. From looking at this, it seems as if UND goes 8-2 and wins their first round series that should be enough to get an at-large bid. If they go 7-3 and win their first round series, they still might have to win a game (or two) at the Final Five to make it. Ultimately, to me it seems that two things are "must haves." First, North Dakota needs to win at least 6-8 of their last 10 (unless they were to win the Final Five). Second, UND must win their first round series. Obviously those two go hand in hand, as a winning record over the final 10 games should get them home ice, and should allow them a good chance to get to St. Paul.

Here is the article...

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/01/23/1615/

Given that, and assuming we need 8 wins, then this weekend is basically a must sweep (3 points could theoretically work as well). So, how do we get those 8 wins?

vs. Wisconsin - 2 wins are a must if we want 8 wins. I'm not sure how a 7-2-1 record would play out in comparison, but 3 points may work as well. Either way, more than a split is necessary.
@ Duluth - Split. If we get swept at Duluth, it is likely that we would have to do major damage at the Final Five, and perhaps win it...not a likely task.
vs. Mankato - 2 wins are a must. The Mavs are one of the worst teams in the league, and if we fail to sweep at home, we can probably kiss our shot at the NCAAs goodbye, barring a miracle.
@ Denver - Split. We have not had the best of luck at Denver, but this will likely be a make or break type series, perhaps for both schools.
vs. Tech - 2 wins are a must. If we were to do something miraculous like sweep Duluth or Denver, then perhaps there is a tad bit of wiggle room, but for Pairwise purposes (especially COP/TUC) this is a must 3+ points.

Basically any way you slice it, IF North Dakota makes the NCAAs, it will likely be as a low #3 or #4 seed. That has been a position that many teams have used over the past 4-5 years to make runs at the NCAA Title, but I think this year's squad is probably a bit too depleted to make a serious charge. Of course, in the playoffs hockey often turns into "goalie" (as UND found out last year at the Frozen Four), and Dell is capable of stealing games. Ultimately, if you make it into the tourney you have a chance. Hopefully UND is able to play well in this stretch and make the NCAAs.