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Hockey East Award Predictions

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  • #16
    Originally posted by RockTheWhit View Post
    Is there no HE poty? Or are they waiting for the banquet to present it?
    My guess is thompson

    Muse, dumoulin and atkinson should all be on the 1st team

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    • #17
      Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

      Originally posted by RENCEB View Post
      J.D., absolutely agree that selection of 5 forwards is stupid; especially if you are only going to pick 2 d. Omission of MC's rookie d-man Jordan Heywood is egregious. A couple of comparisons:

      Clendening 17 pts, +6 and 74 penalty minutes (HE games only)
      Bitetto 16 pts, E, and 40 PM's
      Heywood 11 pts +18 (second among ALL HE D-men), and 37 PM's
      It's pretty well known that +/- is a terrible stat.
      BC Eagles Hockey East Champions: 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1990, 1987
      National Championships: 2012, 2010, 2008, 2001, 1949
      Beanpot Champions: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2004, 2001, 1994, 1983, 1976, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1961, 1959, 1957, 1956, 1954


      Bentley Falcons Hockey

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      • #18
        Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

        Originally posted by Eaglefan06 View Post
        It's pretty well known that +/- is a terrible stat.
        It's well known that it is an imperfect stat-- but it's hardly alone in that respect.

        Goals and assists are both worth 1 point, but sometimes the goal-scorer contributes more than the player scoring the assists, and sometimes the reverse is true. Players who score fewer points may be better than those who have more, depending on the quality of the team around them, the quality of the opposition, and ice time.

        Power play percentages don't make sense given that an "opportunity" can be of varying lengths, and with the rule change that allows multiple goals to be scored during a major penalty, an infinite number of new "opportunities" are spawned, meaning a team whose powerplay would otherwise be considered "perfect" for scoring once for each penalty assessed and power play awarded now can never be.

        Shots on goal can be pretty subjective, and vary from rink to rink, and "scoring chances" doesn't really exist, and is even more subjective.

        How shall we assign postseason awards, then? Height and weight? At least we can be pretty sure of those.

        Heywood is a very good defenseman. He plays smart and poised-- like an upperclassman. His decision-making is excellent. Whether +/- is a "terrible" stat or just an imperfect one, Heywood deserves recognition for his play, certainly as an all-rookie team selection if not also a 2nd All-HE team selection.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

          Originally posted by RENCEB View Post
          J.D., absolutely agree that selection of 5 forwards is stupid; especially if you are only going to pick 2 d. Omission of MC's rookie d-man Jordan Heywood is egregious. A couple of comparisons:

          Clendening 17 pts, +6 and 74 penalty minutes (HE games only)
          Bitetto 16 pts, E, and 40 PM's
          Heywood 11 pts +18 (second among ALL HE D-men), and 37 PM's

          these awards are stupid and they obviously only go by points. sadly, the AA awards are no different
          “Unless you’re Boston College, you don’t get here every year.”

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          Admin, do you still hate BC? If not, will darin and MAV ever be freed? If you do still hate BC, why is SteveF allowed to post?
          Hockey East Champions: 1987, 1990, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012
          National Champions: 1949, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2012

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          • #20
            Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

            Originally posted by dmjossel View Post
            It's well known that it is an imperfect stat-- but it's hardly alone in that respect.

            Goals and assists are both worth 1 point, but sometimes the goal-scorer contributes more than the player scoring the assists, and sometimes the reverse is true. Players who score fewer points may be better than those who have more, depending on the quality of the team around them, the quality of the opposition, and ice time.

            Power play percentages don't make sense given that an "opportunity" can be of varying lengths, and with the rule change that allows multiple goals to be scored during a major penalty, an infinite number of new "opportunities" are spawned, meaning a team whose powerplay would otherwise be considered "perfect" for scoring once for each penalty assessed and power play awarded now can never be.

            Shots on goal can be pretty subjective, and vary from rink to rink, and "scoring chances" doesn't really exist, and is even more subjective.

            How shall we assign postseason awards, then? Height and weight? At least we can be pretty sure of those.

            Heywood is a very good defenseman. He plays smart and poised-- like an upperclassman. His decision-making is excellent. Whether +/- is a "terrible" stat or just an imperfect one, Heywood deserves recognition for his play, certainly as an all-rookie team selection if not also a 2nd All-HE team selection.
            I'm not arguing about Heywood's abilities or spot on the All-Rookie team, but he was clearly making a case based on +/- alone.
            BC Eagles Hockey East Champions: 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1990, 1987
            National Championships: 2012, 2010, 2008, 2001, 1949
            Beanpot Champions: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2004, 2001, 1994, 1983, 1976, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1961, 1959, 1957, 1956, 1954


            Bentley Falcons Hockey

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            • #21
              Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

              Originally posted by Eaglefan06 View Post
              I'm not arguing about Heywood's abilities or spot on the All-Rookie team, but he was clearly making a case based on +/- alone.
              Well, you can argue it now...I'm complete shocked that Heywood didn't get on the HE All Rookie Team...according to Jim Connelly's article, some awards have already been announced, including the All Rookie Team and some others...here they are...Heywood didn't make it...instead, Bitetto from NU and Clendening from BU did...not so sure I completely agree with that, but can ya do.

              Here are the rest:

              All-rookie team

              G: Dan Sullivan, Maine
              D: Anthony Bitetto, Northeastern
              D: Adam Clendening, Boston University
              F: Bill Arnold, Boston College
              F: Charlie Coyle, Boston University*
              F: Mike Collins, Merrimack
              F: Michael Pereira, Massachusetts*
              F: Brodie Reid, Northeastern
              * — unanimous selections

              Best defensive defenseman: Brian Dumoulin, Boston College

              Best defensive forward: Tanner House, Maine*

              Len Ceglarski Sportsmanship Award: Brian Flynn, Maine

              Turfer Athletic Award: Jeff Dimmen, Maine

              Three Stars Award: Paul Thompson, New Hampshire

              Goaltending champion: John Muse, Boston College (1.84 goals-against average, .933 save percentage)

              Scoring champion: Paul Thompson, New Hampshire (42 points)

              Charlie Holt Team Sportsmanship Award: New Hampshire



              Read more: http://www.uscho.com/2011/03/17/semi...#ixzz1Gr6M5k00
              As everyone knows... there was a crisis, as Justin (MCHOCKEY) went AWOL 4 minutes into the first game... and thankfully he wandered his way to the meet and greet in one piece... listening to Mike (Warrior51) tell this story was *** hilarious...

              -Redman after the first night of the HE Tournament(2004).

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              • #22
                Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

                Originally posted by Eaglefan06 View Post
                I'm not arguing about Heywood's abilities or spot on the All-Rookie team, but he was clearly making a case based on +/- alone.
                Fair enough, I agree it may be an imperfect stat, but +18 vs. E? I think I know who I want on the ice (not to say that Bitetto isn't a fine player).
                Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult

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                • #23
                  Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

                  plus/minus is a very flawed statistic or do you think Jeff Schultz was better than Duncan Keith last year?
                  Northeastern Huskies

                  Beanpot Champions: 2018, 2019
                  Hockey East Champions: 2016, 2019

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                  • #24
                    Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

                    It may be flawed, but it can also be quite accurate. Just look at Dumoulin's +/- last year compared to everyone else on his team.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

                      Originally posted by J.D. View Post
                      It may be flawed, but it can also be quite accurate. Just look at Dumoulin's +/- last year compared to everyone else on his team.
                      This is where it becomes useful. When you are comparing two guys on the same team.
                      BC Eagles Hockey East Champions: 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1990, 1987
                      National Championships: 2012, 2010, 2008, 2001, 1949
                      Beanpot Champions: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2004, 2001, 1994, 1983, 1976, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1961, 1959, 1957, 1956, 1954


                      Bentley Falcons Hockey

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                      • #26
                        Re: Hockey East Award Predictions

                        Originally posted by Eaglefan06 View Post
                        This is where it becomes useful. When you are comparing two guys on the same team.
                        If you can compare the two players to the rest of their team, then you can compare how they fit within those comparisons, and then compare the teams themselves.

                        Merrimack and BU had the same defense, statistically, in league play, tied for 3rd with 2.48 goals allowed per game. So any huge difference in individual player's plus/minus, when compared across teams, will result from MC's offensive output being higher.

                        Heywood's +18 was tops on the team, one better than the starting goaltender's +17, better than his defensive pair's +15 (senior and team captain Adam Ross). Heywood went 1-10-11 in league play.

                        Clendening's +/- in league play was +6, same as Boston Bruin draft pick David Warsofsky's. It's better than his defensive pair, Garret Noonan's +3, and better than starting goaltender Kieran Millan's +2. It was worse than Connolly's +9, Sahir Gill's +8, and Matt Nieto's +7. All three are forwards. Clendening went 3-14-17 in league play.

                        Bitetto went Even on a team defense rated fifth in the league, at 2.56 goals allowed per game, just a tick behind BU and MC tied for third. That's a far cry from fellow freshman defenseman Jame Oleksiak, who went +9. Bitetto does have three powerplay goals, though; so if Bitetto is playing on the powerplay and playing against better lines, that would account for it. Bitetto's Even rating is a bit better than starting goalie Rawlings' -2. Bitetto scored 3-13-16 in league play.

                        So BU and MC's team defense numbers were identical, with NU's a tick behind.

                        MC's offense was 4th in the league, just a hair (0.03 goals per game difference) behind 3rd place UNH, and significantly (.5 goals per game difference) ahead of BU, which was only slightly ahead of NU (.1 goals per game difference).

                        I think as often happens, point scoring matters quite a bit, even when talking about defensive players, and if your team scores a lot but you aren't a direct contributor, it hurts you. In comparison to the rest of their teams, all three of these players are statistically as good as each other, defensively, in comparison to how well their team does defensively overall. So with identical goals against figures, but MC's significantly higher offense, all other things being equal you'd expect Heywood's +/- to be higher. Add to that his lower scoring rate (Heywood gives away five points to Bitetto and six to Clendening). Add in that both Bitetto and Clendening have points on the power play (not reflected in their +/-) and I think that's what adds up to them getting the nod among rookies over Heywood.

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