UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

[JB]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

Well, that would explain why BC wasn't in first place until the end of they year and UNH was... and the gap between the two (was it 5 points at one time? I can't remember) closed as the schedules evened out.

Honestly the 2 extra against Umass was BC right for playing well all year. This just jumped off the schedule at me. I would say UNH had a harder end of year schedule, but it all evens out in the end. I had not noticed the schedule earlier in the year other than UNH's strange 5 out of 6 at home or 5 out of 7 on the road stretches that seemed really odd.

As for NU I would be surprised if NU wins. BC is the best team I have seen all year and I said that on some other thread around here somewhere. However, NU does the right stuff style wise to give BC a challenge. I see NU as "BU" style but with harder working and faster players (this year). That means an agressive "finish your checks" (hit the D-man after the puck is long gone) forecheck which will attack the one place I see a weakness in the BC "model". It seems that style of play - slowing the transition to the forwards - is what BC has the hardest time with in the last few years under York. If it gets clean to the forward you can be in a world of hurt. I haven't seen enough of BC against this style this year to see if there D-men get tense, but it looked like that a bit during the Beanpot.

I just hope for a good weekend of games.

[chickod]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

I think this game will be a let down. NU won't be able to sneak up on BC the way they did in the Beanpot. I think BC wins 4-1 in a snoozer. I think your game may be the best game in the country on Friday night.

I agree with this sentiment. BC will blow NU out. Everyone seems to think that because NU beat BU that they're in BC's class. Not so...that BU team had a lot of problems (see other threads). Neither will it be "stuck between the bluelines." NU will be spending the evening trying to catch up with BC.

[WildShawn]

I agree with this sentiment. BC will blow NU out. Everyone seems to think that because NU beat BU that they're in BC's class. Not so...that BU team had a lot of problems (see other threads). Neither will it be "stuck between the bluelines." NU will be spending the evening trying to catch up with BC.

No, people think that because they hung wth BC just over a month ago, has nothing to do with beating an average b.u. team. Of course this is bc's time of year...

[goblue]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

I want to go to Beer Works, but this also sounds like fun (top link, pre-game stuff):

http://unhwildcats.com/sports/mice/2...201103138rs17k

I go to the Garden to watch hockey, and frankly would rather be watching BC vs NU. A 6 p.m. meet-up isn't going to work for me. Then again, I have the advantage of a flexible work schedule, and can get to BBW early.

[unhpuckfan2001]

I go to the Garden to watch hockey, and frankly would rather be watching BC vs NU. A 6 p.m. meet-up isn't going to work for me. Then again, I have the advantage of a flexible work schedule, and can get to BBW early.

I was unaware (I didn't read) the 6pm start.

My groups intentions are to be at BBW by 4; eat, relax, and probably be inside for end of first period at the latest.

[unh1982]

I was unaware (I didn't read) the 6pm start.

My groups intentions are to be at BBW by 4; eat, relax, and probably be inside for end of first period at the latest.

Article yesterday written by moy has them in NCAA regardless of what happens.I would paste but on my cell phone.its also in the power thread copied by priceless

[RockTheWhit]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

UNH is in the ncaa's unless a ridiculous "doom's day" scenario occurs. For UNH to miss the tournament:
NU has to beat Merrimack in the HE Finals
CC, UAA or BSU have to win the WCHA (must win three games now to do so)
WMU has to win the CCHA
Cornell must lose to Dartmouth and then lose in the third place game

[JB]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

UNH is in the ncaa's unless a ridiculous "doom's day" scenario occurs. For UNH to miss the tournament:
NU has to beat Merrimack in the HE Finals
CC, UAA or BSU have to win the WCHA (must win three games now to do so)
WMU has to win the CCHA
Cornell must lose to Dartmouth and then lose in the third place game

Almost correct. Cornell must lose to Dartmouth and Colgate. A loss to Yale doesn't do it. Also I have UNH out the WMU not winning the CCHA just beating Michigan.

I posted this on the PWR thread.

*****************************
There are a bunch of ways to get UNH out but from what I can find all are tied to:
1) UNH not winning in the semi's
and
2) Cornell going 0-2 and must include a loss to Colgate in the Consolation game
and
3) BSU, CC or AA winning the WCHA
and
4) Northeastern winning hockey east
and
5) Western Michigan defeating Michigan

UNH not winning is pretty obvious

The Cornell piece is easy UNH is 1-0 vs Cornell. If Cornell stays a TUC that keeps UNH in. Only way for Cornell to fall out of TUC is to go 0-2 including a loss to Colgate even 0-2 with a loss to Yale keeps them in TUC Status.

The next two are easy too. To bump UNH you need CC to jump UNH (only happens with CC winning WCHA) and 2 auto's qualifiers. Also it works with 3 auto qualifiers. Basically you need 3 from outside the current 16 (or 15 + Atlantic Champ) to get in.

The Western piece I am still playing with. It appears Western beating Michigan flips to UNH-WM comparison. However I found at least a couple cases where that exact comparison didn't flip but UNH had another flip that allowed Western to get past UNH.
*****************************

[unh1982]

UNH is in the ncaa's unless a ridiculous "doom's day" scenario occurs. For UNH to miss the tournament:
NU has to beat Merrimack in the HE Finals
CC, UAA or BSU have to win the WCHA (must win three games now to do so)
WMU has to win the CCHA
Cornell must lose to Dartmouth and then lose in the third place game

JB did you read moy from what I remember even with doomsday unh for some reason wins all the tie breakers.

[thecomicbookguy]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

JB did you read moy from what I remember even with doomsday unh for some reason wins all the tie breakers.

New Moy: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/20...on-the-bubble/

Lists what a poster found to be a very bad situation for UNH (it is very similar to what JB laid out below). They'd drop to 14th, with 3 auto-bids coming from below 16. Other than that, I think UNH is pretty safe. From what I've been looking at, I think Michigan winning their semi would virtually put UNH in.

[Darius]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

I'm glad for those more obsessive with less of a life than me. That's a compliment.

[JB]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

JB did you read moy from what I remember even with doomsday unh for some reason wins all the tie breakers.

Yup I read what he wrote. He is/was wrong, on this issue I am smarta than he is.... What I copied in, I posted on Monday in the PWR thread - it is now on page 3 of that discussion. Had Moy done some additional research he would have found the information.

His analysis was to simplistic and left him with poor conclusions. Moy looked at UNH "essentially" in a vacuum and simply picked of the comparison changes that would occur to UNH based on a UNH loss. He then compared UNH to the team close to it looking at them in a vacuum. He did not factor in the tricky aspect of PWR about TUC. For example Northeastern is currently not a TUC and UNH's record at 1-0-2 against NU is not counted in that factor. NU becomes a TUC with two wins this weekend. Likewise Cornell can stop being a TUC if they go 0-2 against Dartmouth and Colgate (teams are important based on RPI calcualtions). Cornell dropping from TUC status does significant damage to UNH between UNH not getting the 1-0 and other team improving by losses to Cornell coming out of that factor. Moy did not look at this in his analysis and this permutation is important to find UNH's problem scenario.

[C-H-C]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

Depending on which teams win and lose this weekend, this may by UNH's last opportunity to be the "home" team this season. Since they will be able to dictate which UNH lines play against each Merrimack line, I wonder whether it makes sense to send the Moses-Borisenok-Goumas line out against Merrimack's #1 line, Collins-Da Costa-Todd. I like the idea of having Borisenok shadowing Da Costa. The speed, tenacity, and stick-checking of this line might be more effective in keeping the Da Costa line off the board than the Thompson-DeSimone-Sislo line would be. Also, the T-D-S line could focus more on their offense, which is their natural tendency anyway.

[JB]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

Depending on which teams win and lose this weekend, this may by UNH's last opportunity to be the "home" team this season. Since they will be able to dictate which UNH lines play against each Merrimack line, I wonder whether it makes sense to send the Moses-Borisenok-Goumas line out against Merrimack's #1 line, Collins-Da Costa-Todd. I like the idea of having Borisenok shadowing Da Costa. The speed, tenacity, and stick-checking of this line might be more effective in keeping the Da Costa line off the board than the Thompson-DeSimone-Sislo line would be. Also, the T-D-S line could focus more on their offense, which is their natural tendency anyway.

That was a nice way of saying the 1st line has been play too much one way hockey as of late.

Like not back checking on the 1st UVM goal the other night...

[C-H-C]

Re: UNH Wildcats - 2011 Playoff Quest

That was a nice way of saying the 1st line has been play too much one way hockey as of late.

Like not back checking on the 1st UVM goal the other night...

Thompson-DeSimone-Sislo are capable of effective checking in all 3 zones, as they demonstrated in Game #2 against UVM. I was considering which line might be better at it. I'd give the nod to Moses-Borisenok-Goumas and would like to see them disrupting the Da Costa line. Also, after the bad blood generated by DeSimone's contact with Da Costa's knee, it might be prudent to avoid that distraction by keeping their lines apart.