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Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

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  • #16
    Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

    --- Home Lock - 38 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
    --- In - 28 (Field) ---
    BU 27 - 41 [1-9]
    UML 26 - 42 [1-9]
    MC 25 - 41 [1-9]
    BC 25 - 39 [1-9]
    ME 24 - 38 [1-9]
    UNH 17 - 31 [1-10]
    PC 17 - 33 [1-10]
    NU 16 - 30 [1-10]
    UMA 14 - 30 [1-10]
    --- Home Eligible - 25 (MC/BC) ---
    UVM 5 - 19 [7-10]
    --- Out - 16 (NU) ---

    Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
    BU - UMA, @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
    UML - MC, ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
    MC - @UML, UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
    BC - @UVM, MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
    ME - @PC, @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
    UNH - NU, @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
    PC - ME, @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
    NU - @UNH, PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
    UMA - @BU, PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
    UVM - BC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2

    Since UML and MC both won and the other three at the top were idle, the Home Lock line stays the same.

    BU could still lose out for 9th with a tie at 27 and be out on tbs, so they have yet to clinch and the In line will stay at 28.

    With the UML and MC wins, current 4th seed would have at least 25 points. Either MC or BC (but not both) could lose out and still be 4th at 25, so that's where Home Eligible rests tonight. If you can reach 25, you still have a shot at Home Ice.

    UNH jumps up two more spots by passing idle NU and having the tb on PC. They're currently a 6 seed, which is a good weekend for a team that was 9th and Out just over 24 hrs ago.

    On the national front, UNH's win tonight brought their RPI over .5000, made them a TUC and - however briefly - makes BU and UML the top two teams in the PWR.

    That win also leaves NU, at 16, the benchmark for 8th for the moment.

    After this weekend's results, with the remaining schedule, UVM's best chances just dropped by a notch to a possible high of 7th. They could catch any of the four in front of them, but they can't catch all of those four.

    Even if they get no points from anywhere else, the interlocking schedule and current point totals of BU/UML/MC mean that at least one of them has to reach 30. In that scenario, BC sweeping MC means BC at 29, but they could stay there. For teams still thinking of the top seed, 30 with a tb against at least one of those first three leaves you in the running.

    To hit their max of 30, UMA would sweep a weekend from MC, so could be top seed with MC at 30 and BU/UML/BC at 29. Likewise, for NU to hit 30, they would take a pair from BU, so swap BU at 30 and MC at 29 in the UMA scenario and NU could make it. Everyone else besides UVM could win out and pass 30 for an uncontested top seed.

    That leaves the group out of UVM's reach still at 1-9 and those that could be caught by UVM at 1-10.
    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
    cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
    smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
    MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
    Scarlet - What he said.
    brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
    TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
    Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
    David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
    Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

      Todd, if Sioux Sports has the right inputs I can create a 5-way tie for last which, naturally, includes vermont at 19 points

      unsure, what the breakers look like at the moment... may try to figure that one out

      edit: there's no way UVM could win such a breaker... 12 games between them and the most UVM would muster in the tie is 7 points (5 they have now, 4 against UNH... and 2 of the 5 came from Lowell)
      Last edited by Patman; 02-05-2012, 12:17 AM.
      BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

      Jerseys I would like to have:
      Skating Friar Jersey
      AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
      UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
      Army Black Knight logo jersey


      NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

        Yep, there are couple of points where logjams can be created and 19 is still one of them.

        In fact, at the same time that there is a five-way tie at 19, there can be a four-way tie at 36, with the remaining team in the middle at 29.
        The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
        cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
        smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
        MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
        Scarlet - What he said.
        brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
        TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
        Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
        Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
        Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
        David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
        Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

          After last night I just hope U Mass Amherst doesn't get any home games
          Rinks Visited
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          • #20
            Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

            Consistently, this is one of my favorite threads each season. Thank you for your efforts with this great breakdown.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

              Originally posted by Todd View Post
              --- Home Lock - 38 (BU/BC/MC/ME) ---
              --- In - 30 (NU) ---
              BU 25 - 43 [1-10]
              BC 23 - 39 [1-10]
              ME 22 - 38 [1-10]
              MC 21 - 43 [1-10]
              UML 20 - 42 [1-10]
              PC 17 - 39 [1-10]
              UMA 14 - 36 [1-10]
              UNH 13 - 33 [1-10]
              NU 12 - 30 [1-10]
              UVM 5 - 25 [3-10]
              --- Home Eligible - 24 (Field) ---
              --- Out - 13 (UNH) ---

              Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
              BU - ME, @MC, UMA, @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
              BC - @UNH, @UVM, MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
              ME - @BU, @PC, @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
              MC - PC, BU, @UMA, @UML, UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
              UML - UMA, UVMx2, MC, ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
              PC - @MC, @UNH/UNH, ME, @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
              UMA - @UML, @NU, MC, @BU, PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
              UNH - BC, PC/@PC, NU, @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
              NU - @UVM, UMA, @UNH, PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
              UVM - NU, @UMLx2, BC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2



              It’s usually easiest at this point in the year to look at the top and bottom, since the middle will still be muddled.

              On its face, UVM could still tie BU and, with a pair at the Gut, have the tb. That, however, does not mean that UVM could finish in first. They would also have to worry about staying ahead of BC, and Maine, and so on.

              One unusual scheduling quirk in favor of catching the top three teams as a whole, is that after tonight’s ME @ BU game, they are done with each other, meaning that they could all lose on any given night. Of course, the flip of that is that they could all win.

              If you add current 4th place MC, they add a singleton w/ BU and a H&H w/ BC to the mix, but that’s still only three games between the top four teams in the season’s final five weeks.

              Traditionally, if you’re trying to move up in the standings by just a spot or two, it’s usually beneficial for you if the teams ahead of you are playing each other. For example, if your team is in 5th, trying to get the final home ice spot, you are often thought to be best off if 3 and 4 are playing each other. That way, if you win (which you will always need to do to move up – other teams losing doesn’t give you more points), you gain on at least one of the teams ahead of you. One could also argue that you’d be helped by 1 and 2 hosting 3 and 4, so that 3 and 4 would be at their least likely to win and perhaps both would lose – but that gets into matchups, playing styles, and other intangibles that get away from math.

              -----

              So, for UVM (and others chasing Home Ice), with all of the games that are still remaining, someone else – in fact, a bunch of “someone elses” – would pick up the points that BU, BC and Maine would need to drop and all those “someone elses” would stay ahead of UVM.

              I could, for example, get UVM into a favorable position against all of the top four, with the following results. BU loses out and UVM wins out. Tied at 25. Maine loses out except tonight vs. BU (mandated because BU must lose out in this scenario). Maine @ 24. Similarly, MC picks up 2 from BU. BC and MC split and each loses the remainder, leaving both at 25. Now UVM is in a 4-way tie w/ BU, BC and MC at 25 and ahead of Maine at 24.

              The problem for UVM at that point is that every other team in the league could have passed these five teams. In fact, if the team that is currently lower in the standings wins each of the remaining match-ups, UML, UMA, PC, and NU host, UNH is fifth and then we go to tbs to break up the log jam at 25 to see who is at each of 6 through 9.

              The other way to see how high UVM could get is to not try to catch everybody, but let some teams ahead of you win out, taking points from those closer. For example, if UVM gives up on catching BU and both BU and UVM win out (UVM taking the 2 BU games), with a BC/MC 1/3 split and everything else the same as before except these changes, all of a sudden UVM could be 6th on their own.

              Add in PC winning out and UMA losing to UML tonight or to Maine in mid-Feb, and suddenly UVM would be looking at Home Ice. The best path I’ve found so far for UVM is to let two of the teams at the top run away and suck up all the points with them. For instance, I can get UVM to a 3 seed with BU and MC taking all of their available points (who wins the BU/MC H2H is irrelevant to UVM), sprinkling in a couple of well-placed (for UVM) outcomes, and leaving UVM at 25 ahead of a logjam at 24 and 23.

              Therefore, I cap out UVM, after last night’s loss, at 3.

              Moving up to NU, I can still get NU into a 1 seed. One way is with a 3-way tie at 28 w/ PC and BU, whose tbs NU would pick up by sweeping out their season.

              Since NU can still get to first in that scenario, simply flipping the NU@UNH game in the same scenario over to the UNH column gives UNH a 1 seed at 29 pts.

              Give UMA the wins against NU and UNH in the current scenario and they jump up to 1, and so on.

              Basically, everyone except UVM could mathematically still get to a 1 seed, even with the remaining schedule factored in.

              -----

              Moving from the top down, let’s see how low we can drop BU.

              Well, taking where we just were and having BU instead lose out and having NU beat UMA, we’re in a situation with BU tied for last w/UVM @ 25. Since UVM would get the pair at home, that gives them the tb and BU is 10th.

              Take that as a starting point and have BC lose out and BC stays at 23, and at the bottom.

              Safe to say, at this point, anyone losing the rest of their games could still end up in 10th place. Current 10th UVM can’t get higher than 3 against the field, but they can get higher than your individual team.

              -----

              Also to be noted at this point is the games-in-hand situation. In most seasons, at this point the Beanpot schools (BU, BC, NU) have played more games and the other teams generally make up their games in hand over the two Beanpot weekends.

              This year, Maine is also ahead of the other teams in terms of Games Played (GP) because they have a non-conference pair coming up with UAH.

              So, when trying to figure out where teams really stand, and where their maxes are, note that BC and Maine have played 19 league games, leaving just 8 each. BU and NU have 18/9. UNH and UVM are at 17/10 and the other four are at 16/11. For perspective, that means that some teams (BC, ME) have played more than 70% of their HE schedule, while many others - essentially the whole current Home Ice bubble of MC, UML, PC, UMA – have played less than 60% of theirs.

              It’ll be interesting to see which teams, if any, in the middle use those extra games to move up.

              -----

              So, where do we set the marker lines to start?

              Well, BU and MC can each hit 43, but they can’t both hit it because they play each other. Similarly, PC plays everyone ahead of them except BU, so if they hit their max of 39, the rest of their opponents don’t. Factoring in the schedule, I place the Home Lock bar – where I can max out the points for 4th - currently at 38.

              On the flip side of that equation, the lowest I can get 4th – so that the most teams could reach the plateau – is the scenario above where UVM hits the 3 seed. In that case, the 4th seed is at 24.

              For the In bar, it’s simply a matter of staying ahead of #9’s (NU’s) max of 30.

              For Out, if you can’t catch 8th, currently UNH @ 13, you can’t make the playoffs.

              Everything else is still up for grabs.
              Great write up dude.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                --- Home Lock - 38 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
                --- In - 28 (Field) ---
                BU 27 - 41 [1-9]
                UML 26 - 42 [1-9]
                MC 25 - 41 [1-9]
                BC 25 - 39 [1-9]
                ME 24 - 38 [1-9]
                UNH 17 - 31 [1-10]
                PC 17 - 33 [1-10]
                NU 16 - 30 [1-10]
                UMA 14 - 30 [1-10]
                --- Home Eligible - 25 (MC/BC) ---
                UVM 5 - 19 [7-10]
                --- Out - 16 (NU) ---

                Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                BU - UMA, @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
                UML - MC, ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
                MC - @UML, UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
                BC - @UVM, MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
                ME - @PC, @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
                UNH - NU, @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
                PC - ME, @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
                NU - @UNH, PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
                UMA - @BU, PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
                UVM - BC, @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2


                Now it gets interesting.

                In the current Top Five - and the Bottom One:

                BU and BC play the bottom two for one each - UMA and UVM, respectively. A BU win would both raise their point total and drop UMA's max, each by two. That flip would put UMA permanently behind BU and BU would be (among?) the first to clinch a playoff spot. A BC win could bury UVM, depending on the rest of the night (or the next, or the next...).

                More fun is among the other three of this group.

                UML has the tough-on-paper task of facing each of the other two. At least they get to play both games at Tsongas.

                If Top Two BU and UML both win enough points to keep those positions, in either order, this weekend, then that sets up even more import on next weekend's H2H between the two. Following that, of course, are games two and three of the UML/MC series, which could have similar import. If UML stays around the top, they will certainly have earned it.

                The other games for MC and ME (UNH on Sat and PC on Fri, respectively) could help determine if anyone outside the Top Five will realistically continue the battle for Home Ice. UNH's max would drop to no higher than 29. PC would drop to 31 or lower by Sunday. With points being added to the Top Five, the Home Eligible line that those beneath it are chasing would move up from 25. That window wouldn't close, but it would become a tighter squeeze. Further, the interlocking schedule between those below the line would likely mean that those above it are going to be protected from some of the lower positions. While any of those below might be able to squeak in, they could no longer all do it.

                In the Other Four:

                Besides the games already mentioned, this group also has some key internal match-ups. UNH hosts NU for the Huskies' only game, and PC travels to Mullins where UMA is so tough. Next weekend, PC and NU play H2H. If anyone out of this group is going to make a move, they've got to start knocking off the competition in this group to move up to the other.

                For example - similar examples apply to the other three - if NU can take out UNH and then two from PC, they'll find themselves at 22 points before ending the season hosting Maine for two, taking the "road" trip to BU, and then Senior Night against the Terriers. Three of the last four at Matthews and a T ride for their road game likely helps their cause. No one knows yet whether a 30 point max would still have NU in the running for Home Ice with two weeks to go, but with UML, BC and MC knocking each other about in the mean time, who's to say it won't?

                Well, this thread will, but not until then.

                In the mean time, let the seeding possibilities really begin...
                The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                Scarlet - What he said.
                brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                  --- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
                  UML 28 - 42 [1-8]
                  --- In - 28 (Field) ---
                  BU 27 - 39 [1-9]
                  BC 27 - 39 [1-9]
                  MC 25 - 39 [1-9]
                  ME 24 - 36 [1-9]
                  UNH 19 - 31 [1-9]
                  PC 19 - 33 [1-9]
                  NU 16 - 28 [3-10]
                  UMA 16 - 30 [1-10]
                  --- Home Eligible - 25 (MC) ---
                  UVM 5 - 17 [8-10]
                  --- Out - 16 (NU/UMA) ---

                  Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                  UML - ME, BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
                  BU - @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
                  BC - MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
                  MC - UNH, @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
                  ME - @UML, UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
                  UNH - @MC, UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
                  PC - @UMA, @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
                  NU - PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
                  UMA - PC, @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
                  UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2


                  After tonight's results, the highest I can get the 9th place team is 27.

                  That puts UML, at 28, no lower than 8th and In the HE Quarter-Finals. Congrats to the River Hawks.

                  While BU and BC are each at 27, neither has yet clinched, as they could lose out on tbs at 27. For example, BU could be tied w/ Maine and/or NU, losing the tb to both in that case. BC could be tied with any or all of ME, BU and/or UMA, already losing all three tbs at 1-2-0. Since both teams are done with HE play until next Friday, they can't gain any more league points until at least then. With limited league play on Saturday, I still see the In line needing tbs at 27 going into next weekend regardless of those outcomes, or 28 for a clean clinching of a playoff spot.

                  After this Saturday, most of the games-in-hand will have evened out, except that ME and UNH will have played one extra relative to the rest of the league. That disparity will continue until the final weekend, when the other eight teams pair up for two games, but UNH and Maine only play the final Saturday.

                  The Home Lock line drops two to 36.

                  Since MC is currently 4th at 25 and could lose out without being passed - although with a monstrous logjam at 25 - Home Eligible stays at 25.

                  The Out line is now split between NU and UMA at 16. Since they don't play each other, they could both stay there. With UVM's max at 17, the Catamounts could still sneak into 8th. However, UNH and PC winning tonight put them out of UVM's reach, so 8th is UVM's last shot at the playoffs.

                  UMA's max of 30 leaves them with the thinnest of chances for the 1 seed. With UML/MC x 2 and BC/MC x 2 and UML/BU x 2, the best the Minutemen could hope for is a four- or five-way tie at 30 where they hold the tbs. Perhaps surprisingly, if UMA were to reach 30 points, they would hold the tb with BC (already 2-1-0), ME (2-0-1), MC (2-1-0) and, after tonight, split w/ BU (1-1-1). The only tb they would lose among the top five would be UML (0-3-0). As long as UML is not in the 30-point tie group, UMA should come out on top. This far out, I'm not going to go through all of the combinations that would include UML and UMA and two or three others to see who wins that.

                  For similar reasons, NU's new max of 28 leaves them behind at least two of that same combination of four teams.
                  The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                  cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                  smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                  MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                  Scarlet - What he said.
                  brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                  TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                  Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                  Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                  Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                  David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                  Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                    --- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
                    UML 28 - 40 [1-8]
                    --- In - 28 (Field) ---
                    BU 27 - 39 [1-9]
                    BC 27 - 39 [1-9]
                    MC 26 - 38 [1-9]
                    ME 26 - 36 [1-9]
                    PC 21 - 33 [1-9]
                    UNH 20 - 30 [2-9]
                    NU 16 - 28 [3-10]
                    UMA 16 - 28 [3-10]
                    --- Home Eligible - 26 (MC/ME) ---
                    UVM 5 - 17 [8-10]
                    --- Out - 16 (NU/UMA) ---

                    Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                    UML - BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
                    BU - @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
                    BC - MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
                    MC - @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
                    ME - UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
                    PC - @NU/NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
                    UNH - UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
                    NU - PC/@PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
                    UMA - @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
                    UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2

                    Lots to talk about, so I'm breaking up the sections with ----

                    ----
                    With MC and Maine now tied at 26 for 4th, the Home Eligible line must move up to 26 with them. Since they don't face off, each could lose out and stay there. All of the teams below them, in combination, could fairly easily stay below them. That means that if you can get to 26, you still have a shot at Home Ice.

                    ----
                    If the top five teams split internally and sweep externally, 4th seed would still be at 36 (37, 37, 36, 36, 34). Not a lot of wiggle room, but Home Lock is still at 36.

                    ----
                    UMA's loss keeps UVM on Life Support for the 8 seed. In fact, since UVM loses the tb to UMA (1-2-0) and to NU (0-3-0), and UMA/NU split at 1-1-1, there's no combination where UVM could come out on top of either or both teams if tied. With both NU and UMA already at 16 and UVM's max at 17, that means UVM's only path to the playoffs is to win out, and have both NU and UMA lose out. Anything else and UVM is done.

                    ----
                    As with NU before last night's games, UMA's max dropping to 28 makes them no higher than a 3 seed. With UML at 28, BU at 27 and four points still to split between the two, at least one of those teams must surpass 28. Similarly, BC is at 27 and MC at 26 with four points to split. Since either UML or MC could be the team(s) to pass 28 from their pairing and then take most/all of the points from their match-up the following weekend, that H2H does not yet drop NU and UMA down another notch. However, if BU and BC pass 28 and leave UML and MC under that mark, then the winner of that third series would be yet another team that NU and UMA could not catch.

                    Of course, both UML and BU could pass 28 next weekend, bumping the NU/UMA pair down another notch.

                    Also, NU loses the tb to both BC (0-3-0) and MC (0-2-1), so if either just reaches 28, that's enough to put them ahead of NU. A 2/2 or 1/3 split of the BC/MC series would mean NU would be behind both, barring a bizarre multi-way tb that I'm not going to calculate this far out.

                    UMA, on the other hand, wins the tb w/ BC and has two more w/ MC on the final weekend - which they would have to sweep (taking the tb) to hit 28 - so they are still safe from a tie at 28 with either of those two.

                    ----
                    UNH's max dropping to 30 leaves them in a best-case scenario as league co-champs, with a five-way tie with UML/BU/BC/MC.

                    But let's look at that more closely...

                    With their tbs within this group already decided at 1-2-0, 0-3-0, 0-3-0, 1-1-1, respectively, UNH would have a collective two wins. BU and BC already have at least three because of their sweeps of UNH (BU has seven and BC has six). UML has one win against each of the other three to add to their two with UNH, for at least five wins. MC also has just two wins so far, but has four left to play within the group. All of the other teams in the group have games pending within the mix. In a nutshell, that tie at 30 would let UNH raise a RS banner, but they'd be no better than a 4 seed, and quite possibly a 5.

                    They'd be better off, for seeding, to let one of the other teams go and aim to stay ahead of the others. For example, if UML soaks up most or all of the points from their BU and MC series, that would leave leeway for BC and MC to split and for UNH to come in solo at 30 and in 2nd place.

                    ----
                    At 33 max, PC can still come in 1st, by themselves.

                    ----
                    Lastly...

                    Even with UNH and UMA losing a collective three points, that still leaves the collective max of the 9th seed at 27, but by an increasingly slim margin.

                    Here's a simple look at why - or as simple as I can make it:

                    For NU and UMA to pass 27, they must win out, or take 11 of their remaining 12 available points to just reach 27.

                    Remember that UNH only has five games left, not six. Two of those games are vs. UMA. If UMA runs the table, that drops four from UNH's max of 30 - leaving UNH with a max of 26. If UNH and UMA split 1/3, that leaves both at 27. Let's assume that they otherwise win out and put them both at 27.

                    Providence and Merrimack have enough points to soak up from those already at or over 27 that they can comfortably - on paper - pass 27 without impacting the 9 seed max.

                    Now let's look at Maine. They only need one point to reach 27. They, like UNH, have only five games left. All of their remaining games are against the teams below them struggling to make 27. They cannot take any points from either UNH or UMA because of the inflexibility of the scenario above to get both of those squads to 27. That means they can only take 1 from NU, leaving both Maine and Northeastern also at 27.

                    Anything other than that exact combination from NU/UMA/UNH/Maine and the In line drops, putting at least BU and BC in the playoffs. Of course, one point for either of those teams would also put them In.

                    All of that would leave only UVM below the at-least-four-way jam at the 27 point mark. That logjam could grow with any of the following mutually-possible scenarios: BU loses out; BC loses out; PC gets swept by NU (required above), sweeps BC (required if BC loses out) and splits 2/2 w/ UML.

                    That would give us a seven-way tie for 3rd-9th. (UVM would have 13.)

                    In that case, first place would be decided by the UML/MC series. If MC swept, it would cause a tie at 34, w/ MC having the tb to earn the top seed. Anything else and UML would be 1 and MC 2.

                    To the extent it matters, I guess that we've shown that if the 3rd seed has 27 points, we know that UML is at least co-champs. OK, now we're officially down the rabbit hole...
                    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                    cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                    smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                    MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                    Scarlet - What he said.
                    brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                    TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                    Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                    David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                    Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                      That's just downright impressive. Complicated but impressive
                      Spaulding get your foot off the boat!

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                        I love this thread!
                        Originally posted by Bakunin
                        Learning the history and actually suffering through it are very different things. You simply can't appreciate a title as much if you don't suffer through a lot of failure beforehand. To put it another way, if MNS ever gets any, he'll appreciate the experience on a far deeper level than the rest of us did when it was our first time, simply because he's gone far longer and failed far more than we ever did.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                          --- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
                          UML 28 - 40 [1-8]
                          --- In - 28 (Field) ---
                          BU 27 - 39 [1-9]
                          BC 27 - 39 [1-9]
                          MC 26 - 38 [1-9]
                          ME 26 - 36 [1-9]
                          PC 21 - 33 [1-9]
                          UNH 20 - 30 [2-9]
                          NU 16 - 28 [3-10]
                          UMA 16 - 28 [3-10]
                          --- Home Eligible - 26 (MC/ME) ---
                          UVM 5 - 17 [8-10]
                          --- Out - 16 (NU/UMA) ---

                          Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                          UML - BU/@BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
                          BU - @UML/UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
                          BC - MC/@MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
                          MC - @BC/BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
                          ME - UMAx2, @NUx2, UNH
                          PC - @NUx2, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
                          UNH - UVMx2, @UMAx2, @ME
                          NU - PCx2, MEx2, @BU/BU
                          UMA - @MEx2, UNHx2, MC/@MC
                          UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @BCx2


                          Big weekend is at hand.

                          BIG weekend.

                          With BU holding the tb over BC (Beanpot final is not a league game) and MC owning the tb w/ ME, we have 1 playing 2 and 3 playing 4 for a very important set of H&Hs. Laying in wait is #5 who hosts #8/9 for a pair.

                          With the standings as close as they are among the top five, the ramifications of this weekend will be felt come seeding time, whether we get opportunistic sweeps, or failure-to-capitalize splits. With Maine having one fewer game left, and someone - actually, at least two someones - ahead of them not getting points each night, they really need to take advantage of the weaker-on-paper opponent in Bear-friendly Alfond otherwise this is a big opportunity missed.

                          Not to be overlooked is PC, just on the outside of the top group. The are playing the other #8/9 team for two. They are 5 points out of Home Ice, 6 back of BC and 7 back of UML. After this weekend, they play two with first BC and then UML. If PC can gain 2 or more on BC and 3 or more on UML, they would control their own destiny for Home Ice. In fact, with UML and MC facing off while PC is with BC, you could throw MC into the mix of teams PC could catch with little to no help if this weekend breaks right for the Friars. I've got to think that PC is rooting for BU and MC this weekend. Either that or, if the handwriting is on the wall, pulling for UML to take out both the Terriers and the Warriors over the next four games, but then PC would need help from others to break into the Top Four.

                          The point is that a PC sweep would put them only one point behind where MC and ME are right now. Whoever among the Top Five gets the short end of the points this weekend will not only be looking up at the other teams that left them behind, but also over their shoulder at PC.

                          UNH is only a point further back than PC, but is less of a direct threat for two reasons. One is that they only have five games left instead of six. That's two fewer points to gain, when there are so few points left to add for everyone. The other is that they don't face full weekends against the leaders, so they wouldn't control their own fate. That said, the flip side of not facing contenders means that they have arguably the weakest remaining schedule, so the points are at least as easy for them to gather - on paper - as they would be for anyone else.

                          What else...

                          Well, we have some rare non-ME/UVM both-games-in-one-location weekend series coming up. First, apparently PC is at Matthews for two this weekend, rather than the traditional H&H. Next weekend, UMA hosts UNH for a pair. That prompts two notes.

                          One note is that UNH is hosting Senior weekend against UVM and then plays the rest of the season (all three games of it) on the road. Considering that those road games are at Mullins, where UMA has been nigh-invulnerable (The Tick? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller...?), and at Alfond, UNH better beat up on UVM this weekend or risk joining them in three weeks in front of the TV. That could put a whole different impact on the UNH/UMA series.

                          The second note is that NU has five of their last six at home, with the "road" game being a T-ride away at Agganis. Remember that, last season, NU played four straight games at Agganis (RS final and QFs), taking three of those four to reach the HE Semis.

                          Elsewhere, the other teams rivaling UNH for easiest remaining SOS are BU and ME. After this weekend, BU would have the easiest road on paper. While UNH plays #10 UVM x 2 and tied-for-#8 UMA x 2 before facing Home Ice Contender ME, after BU is done with UML, they have #10 UVM x 2 and other-tied-for-#8 NU x 2. ME plays both tied-for-#8s for two each (UMA in ME, NU in Boston) before hosting #7 UNH for a final game. As much of a say as ME has on Home Ice, they may also help decide who misses the playoffs.

                          Remember, UVM has only one path to the playoffs. They must win out and have both NU and UMA lose out. Not an enviable position, especially with UVM having their final four against teams with "Boston" on their sweaters.

                          Four teams (BU, BC, MC, ME) are within striking distance of clinching playoff spots tonight. Whoever among that group doesn't do so tonight will be in a similar position tomorrow.
                          The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                          cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                          smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                          MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                          Scarlet - What he said.
                          brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                          TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                          Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                          Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                          Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                          David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                          Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                            --- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
                            BU 29 - 39 [1-6]
                            BC 29 - 39 [1-6]
                            UML 28 - 38 [1-7]
                            ME 28 - 36 [1-7]
                            MC 26 - 36 [1-8]
                            --- In - 26 (Field) ---
                            PC 22 - 32 [1-9]
                            UNH 20 - 28 [3-9]
                            --- Home Eligible - 28 (UML/ME) ---
                            NU 17 - 27 [5-9]
                            UMA 16 - 26 [5-10]
                            --- Out - 17 (NU) ---
                            UVM 7 - 17 [9-10]

                            Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                            BU - UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
                            BC - @MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
                            UML - @BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
                            ME - UMA, @NUx2, UNH
                            MC - BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
                            PC - @NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
                            UNH - UVM, @UMAx2, @ME
                            NU - PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
                            UMA - @ME, UNHx2, MC/@MC
                            UVM - @UNH, BUx2, @BCx2


                            So many changes, so little time...

                            BU, BC and ME winning puts all of them above the In line as it was before tonight, let alone now that it has lowered. That means all three join UML in the playoffs. Congrats.

                            In fact, four teams can now not catch BU and BC, meaning that each can fall no lower than 6th. For ME and UML, they can fall no lower than 7th. While either could/would win some tbs at 28, they would also lose some other possible ties - including some with UNH - so each could lose out and end up 7th. UNH could also pass both and be 3rd.

                            With two still to play between MC and UMA, that tb is yet to be set, so MC could still fall behind UMA. However, for UMA to catch MC, that would mean UMA swept UNH, dropping UNH's max to 24. So, while MC could fall below either UNH or UMA, they can't fall behind both. With UVM already buried, that means at least two teams have to fall behind MC. That means MC can be no lower than 8th and is in. Congrats to the Warriors.

                            In fact, because UNH and UMA play two, the highest that the 9th place team could be is 25. That puts the In line at 26 w/o having to figure tbs.

                            At the other end of the spectrum, UVM won and UMA lost, but NU tied. As noted previously, that single point that didn't go UVM's way means that the Cats are out.

                            The Home Lock line stays at 36. In fact, there can be a five-way tie at 36, meaning that you need to pass 36, or have the tbs go your way if just at 36. By the time someone gets close, the line will have changed, so with only five or four games left, it's really still just an indicator of how far anyone is from clinching Home Ice. That said, the Lock line should begin to drop tomorrow, even as the Eligible line rises.

                            Since four teams are now at or above 28, the Eligible line has to rise at least that far. Since ME doesn't face any other top teams, they could lose out and not impact any others. That means that current 5th could also lose out, keeping 4th place at 28. There is enough flexibility left that everyone else that could reach or pass 28 (that isn't already there) doesn't.
                            The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                            cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                            smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                            MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                            Scarlet - What he said.
                            brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                            TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                            Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                            Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                            Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                            David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                            Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2011-12 edition

                              Originally posted by Todd View Post
                              --- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
                              BU 29 - 39 [1-6]
                              BC 29 - 39 [1-6]
                              UML 28 - 38 [1-7]
                              ME 28 - 36 [1-7]
                              MC 26 - 36 [1-8]
                              --- In - 26 (Field) ---
                              PC 22 - 32 [1-9]
                              UNH 20 - 28 [3-9]
                              --- Home Eligible - 28 (UML/ME) ---
                              NU 17 - 27 [5-9]
                              UMA 16 - 26 [5-10]
                              --- Out - 17 (NU) ---
                              UVM 7 - 17 [9-10]

                              Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                              BU - UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
                              BC - @MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
                              UML - @BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
                              ME - UMA, @NUx2, UNH
                              MC - BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
                              PC - @NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
                              UNH - UVM, @UMAx2, @ME
                              NU - PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
                              UMA - @ME, UNHx2, MC/@MC
                              UVM - @UNH, BUx2, @BCx2
                              Once again things are amazingly tight. What's different this year, though, is that on the final weekend, there may not be any huge head-to-head battles for home ice. Instead, it will be a matter of scoreboard watching. (Gotta love the CHN smart phone app.) That makes tonight and the coming weekend all the more important as at least one of the top five teams will be looking for upset help elsewhere.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Todd View Post
                                --- Home Lock - 36 (BU/BC/ME+UML/MC) ---
                                BU 29 - 39 [1-6]
                                BC 29 - 39 [1-6]
                                UML 28 - 38 [1-7]
                                ME 28 - 36 [1-7]
                                MC 26 - 36 [1-8]
                                --- In - 26 (Field) ---
                                PC 22 - 32 [1-9]
                                UNH 20 - 28 [3-9]
                                --- Home Eligible - 28 (UML/ME) ---
                                NU 17 - 27 [5-9]
                                UMA 16 - 26 [5-10]
                                --- Out - 17 (NU) ---
                                UVM 7 - 17 [9-10]

                                Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
                                BU - UML, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
                                BC - @MC, @PC/PC, UVMx2
                                UML - @BU, @MC/MC, @PC/PC
                                ME - UMA, @NUx2, UNH
                                MC - BC, UML/@UML, @UMA/UMA
                                PC - @NU, BC/@BC, UML/@UML
                                UNH - UVM, @UMAx2, @ME
                                NU - PC, MEx2, @BU/BU
                                UMA - @ME, UNHx2, MC/@MC
                                UVM - @UNH, BUx2, @BCx2


                                So many changes, so little time...

                                BU, BC and ME winning puts all of them above the In line as it was before tonight, let alone now that it has lowered. That means all three join UML in the playoffs. Congrats.

                                In fact, four teams can now not catch BU and BC, meaning that each can fall no lower than 6th. For ME and UML, they can fall no lower than 7th. While either could/would win some tbs at 28, they would also lose some other possible ties - including some with UNH - so each could lose out and end up 7th. UNH could also pass both and be 3rd.

                                With two still to play between MC and UMA, that tb is yet to be set, so MC could still fall behind UMA. However, for UMA to catch MC, that would mean UMA swept UNH, dropping UNH's max to 24. So, while MC could fall below either UNH or UMA, they can't fall behind both. With UVM already buried, that means at least two teams have to fall behind MC. That means MC can be no lower than 8th and is in. Congrats to the Warriors.

                                In fact, because UNH and UMA play two, the highest that the 9th place team could be is 25. That puts the In line at 26 w/o having to figure tbs.

                                At the other end of the spectrum, UVM won and UMA lost, but NU tied. As noted previously, that single point that didn't go UVM's way means that the Cats are out.

                                The Home Lock line stays at 36. In fact, there can be a five-way tie at 36, meaning that you need to pass 36, or have the tbs go your way if just at 36. By the time someone gets close, the line will have changed, so with only five or four games left, it's really still just an indicator of how far anyone is from clinching Home Ice. That said, the Lock line should begin to drop tomorrow, even as the Eligible line rises.

                                Since four teams are now at or above 28, the Eligible line has to rise at least that far. Since ME doesn't face any other top teams, they could lose out and not impact any others. That means that current 5th could also lose out, keeping 4th place at 28. There is enough flexibility left that everyone else that could reach or pass 28 (that isn't already there) doesn't.
                                Lowell owns the tiebreaker against UNH and Maine. So if Lowell loses out and UNH wins out, Lowell would finish no lower than 6th I believe.
                                Lowell Forever
                                Forever Lowell

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