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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    By my count there are still 11 teams alive for a #1 seed going into next weekend. Crazy.

    The bubble is: Cornell, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan and Merrimack.
    Teams that are in: BC, Michigan, UMD, Ferris State, Boston University, Minnesota, Miami
    Teams that are in barring the parlay: Lowell, Maine, Denver, Union, North Dakota
    Cornell needs one more TUC win to move off the bubble. 0-2 vs TUC sinks them.
    Last edited by Priceless; 03-12-2012, 12:01 AM.

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by Priceless View Post
      Denver, Union and Maine can be eliminated but it would take tremendous upsets to do it, including SCSU or Tech running the table in the WCHA, Colgate or Harvard winning the ECAC, Providence winning HEA and Bowling Green winning the CCHA.

      For brevity's sake, can we agree to just call it "the parlay"?
      "The parlay" isn't going to happen. Been enjoying the Bracketology thread (as long as DU is in the mix.)

      How are you doung Priceless?
      GO DU !!!

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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Originally posted by Priceless View Post
        By my count there are still 11 teams alive for a #1 seed going into next weekend. Crazy.

        The bubble is: Cornell, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan and Merrimack.
        Teams that are in: BC, Michigan, UMD, Ferris State, Boston University, Minnesota, Miami
        Teams that are in barring the parlay: Maine, Denver, Union, North Dakota
        Cornell needs one more TUC win to move off the bubble. 0-2 vs TUC sinks them.
        Priceless, I get the same, except that my 'parlay' also includes Western in place of BG. And, I am still awaiting Patman's scenario that puts Lowell out. I can't match the result he posted.

        Oh, and I thought I found a way to put Maine out without the PC part of the parlay in effect. Yes. Here it is:
        WCHA: SCSU over Denver in the final
        HE: BC over BU
        CCHA: Western over Michigan in the final.
        ECAC: Colgate over Cornell (Union wins conso)
        AHA: Air Force
        Last edited by Numbers; 03-12-2012, 12:07 AM.

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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by Numbers View Post
          Priceless, I get the same, except that my 'parlay' also includes Western in place of BG. And, I am still awaiting Patman's scenario that puts Lowell out. I can't match the result he posted.

          Oh, and I thought I found a way to put Maine out without the PC part of the parlay in effect. Let me try that again...
          I didn't know I had to

          edit: heh, in trying to re-create the situation I found one that puts Lowell 6th in the pairwise... as high as I've been able to manage.

          edit #2: I know I had one... the lowest I can get them at the moment is 12th (with the AQ line right at 12)
          Last edited by Patman; 03-12-2012, 12:14 AM.
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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Looks like the only scenario in which BC will not be the #1 overall is if tUMD wins the Final Five. If tUMD wins the Final Five they will be the #1 overall.

            One of you who knows the PWR better can now go prove me wrong...
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            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by MinnesotaNorthStar View Post
              Looks like the only scenario in which BC will not be the #1 overall is if tUMD wins the Final Five. If tUMD wins the Final Five they will be the #1 overall.

              One of you who knows the PWR better can now go prove me wrong...
              Easy. MN will win the F5. My work is done here.
              Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
              Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by MinnesotaNorthStar View Post
                Looks like the only scenario in which BC will not be the #1 overall is if tUMD wins the Final Five. If tUMD wins the Final Five they will be the #1 overall.

                One of you who knows the PWR better can now go prove me wrong...
                I believe this is right. No one can pass their RPI, because HE has no conso game. And, only UMD can reach them in the other parts of the PWR.

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                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                  I believe this is right. No one can pass their RPI, because HE has no conso game. And, only UMD can reach them in the other parts of the PWR.
                  WCHA has no conso game either, thank Parise. Dunno if that makes a difference.
                  Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                  Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

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                  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    Priceless, I get the same, except that my 'parlay' also includes Western in place of BG. And, I am still awaiting Patman's scenario that puts Lowell out. I can't match the result he posted.

                    Oh, and I thought I found a way to put Maine out without the PC part of the parlay in effect. Yes. Here it is:
                    WCHA: SCSU over Denver in the final
                    HE: BC over BU
                    CCHA: Western over Michigan in the final.
                    ECAC: Colgate over Cornell (Union wins conso)
                    AHA: Air Force
                    See below.

                    Originally posted by vizoroo View Post
                    "The parlay" isn't going to happen. Been enjoying the Bracketology thread (as long as DU is in the mix.)
                    Originally posted by vizoroo View Post
                    How are you doung Priceless?
                    Check your rep

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                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Here's one that puts Lowell home... really difficult to pull off... unsure about sensitivity.

                      WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
                      WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
                      WCHA Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
                      WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
                      WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver.
                      Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
                      Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College.
                      Hockey East Championship game: Providence defeats Maine.
                      ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
                      ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
                      ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.
                      ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
                      CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
                      CCHA Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan.
                      CCHA Championship game: Bowling Green defeats Miami.
                      CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
                      Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
                      Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
                      Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

                      #13 PWR... 4 AQ off-list (PC, BGSU, Harvard, Air Force)

                      edit: so far... WCHA can be flipped a bit and keep the result... flipping RIT for AFA puts UML back in... ECAC seems to be a no-touch zone... HEA needs to go in the order above. CCHA might be flippable... didn't test... BGSU is essential element though if WMU jumps at UML's expense I suppose it could be similar

                      There may be one or two other scenarios out there... hard to run them all down... but off of this base scenario there aren't a lot of additional cases.

                      edit: I can get Lowell out with WMU winning a few games. So far, it looks like AHA, HEA, and ECAC have to go exactly to plan (above)... the rest has some wiggle... but not a lot.
                      Last edited by Patman; 03-12-2012, 12:28 AM.
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                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by Patman View Post
                        Here's one that puts Lowell home... really difficult to pull off... unsure about sensitivity.

                        WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
                        WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
                        WCHA Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
                        WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
                        WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver.
                        Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
                        Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College.
                        Hockey East Championship game: Providence defeats Maine.
                        ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
                        ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
                        ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.
                        ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
                        CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
                        CCHA Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan.
                        CCHA Championship game: Bowling Green defeats Miami.
                        CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
                        Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
                        Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
                        Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

                        #13 PWR... 4 AQ off-list (PC, BGSU, Harvard, Air Force)

                        edit: so far... WCHA can be flipped a bit and keep the result... flipping RIT for AFA puts UML back in... ECAC seems to be a no-touch zone... HEA needs to go in the order above. CCHA might be flippable... didn't test... BGSU is essential element though if WMU jumps at UML's expense I suppose it could be similar

                        There may be one or two other scenarios out there... hard to run them all down... but off of this base scenario there aren't a lot of additional cases.

                        edit: I can get Lowell out with WMU winning a few games. So far, it looks like AHA, HEA, and ECAC have to go exactly to plan (above)... the rest has some wiggle... but not a lot.
                        Thanks, Patman. I noticed from this base as well, that WMU over Michigan in the CCHA final, and Miami over BG in the conso also leaves Lowell out. So, add them to Priceless' "parlay" list.

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                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                          Thanks, Patman. I noticed from this base as well, that WMU over Michigan in the CCHA final, and Miami over BG in the conso also leaves Lowell out. So, add them to Priceless' "parlay" list.
                          yeah... as far as I can figure ECAC and HEA has to go exactly as so... not sure that I'll play around with this much more... day job as a professional statistician and all that... DST isnt letting me sleep though. I figure if BC defeats PC then Lowell may as well be a lock.
                          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                          Jerseys I would like to have:
                          Skating Friar Jersey
                          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                          Army Black Knight logo jersey


                          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            Originally posted by Patman View Post
                            yeah... as far as I can figure ECAC and HEA has to go exactly as so... not sure that I'll play around with this much more... day job as a professional statistician and all that... DST isnt letting me sleep though. I figure if BC defeats PC then Lowell may as well be a lock.
                            Ok, so now that Lowell is in, do me a favor and put then in Bridgeport or Worcester.

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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              My favorite scenario is a slight modification of the one posted that gets Merrimack in:

                              WCHA - Minn over UMD
                              AHA - AFA over RIT
                              ECAC - Cornell loses twice, Union wins twice
                              CCHA - Michigan beats Miami, and BG beats WMU in the conso
                              HE - BC over BU in the final

                              This gives 2 interesting results.
                              1- A #1 from each conference
                              2- The #15 team (last at large bid) would be a tie between Merr and WMU. That's cool enough. However, this particular tie has the following quality: If the tie is broken by RPI, it goes to Merrimack. If the tie is broken by the comparison winner, it goes to WMU.

                              Wouldn't you love to be on that committee??
                              Last edited by Numbers; 03-12-2012, 12:59 AM. Reason: mispelling

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                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                                Wouldn't you love to be on that committee??
                                Clearly, this calls for a play-in game somewhere in the middle... like Indianapolis... who's up for it!
                                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                                Jerseys I would like to have:
                                Skating Friar Jersey
                                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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