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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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  • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    It looks like Maine is in even if Providence or UNH win Hockey East because their inclusion as a TUC (Providence would rise to >.5 if they win HEA) would lift Maine above the cut line. It would take an additional upset to unseat the Black Bears.

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    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by Priceless View Post
      It looks like Maine is in even if Providence or UNH win Hockey East because their inclusion as a TUC (Providence would rise to >.5 if they win HEA) would lift Maine above the cut line. It would take an additional upset to unseat the Black Bears.
      What are Lowell's chances looking like after that atrocious performance this weekend?

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      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Originally posted by bottomdweller View Post
        What are Lowell's chances looking like after that atrocious performance this weekend?
        IMO, pretty good... some of it depends upon UNH staying above the line and BC ending the Friars season... I'll start going through some of the tools Monday night to generate worst cases but the one positive thing about the end of the season is that it can't get worse... or at least by that much... teams need to jump in front of you and at this stage many of those teams are already at home.

        On the other hand, location is up to the Wheel of Fate as it were. If you are a #1 you have your best advantage... #2 better... #3 becomes iffy. There's quite away to fall in order not to make the tournament... next weekend would have to be, frankly, flat out ridiculous.
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        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Now that the HE bracket is known, one very important piece of information for everyone here:

          If Maine beats BU, New Hampshire's RPI would fall below the TUC cut line. That has the effect of drastically changing BU's TUC record, and also slightly altering Lowell's TUC record. I know that sounds strange, but the reason is that New Hampshire played BU 6 times this year, and so a slight change in BU win% affects UNH's RPI that tiny bit.

          Please be aware of this, because it could affect several compares.

          Along with this: Please note that right now, the upper level of the PWR is quite confused. What I mean is, the PWR order doesn't follow the RPI order. And, many comparison wins are out of order. That means the top end - from about 3 to 9 or so, is very volatile, because the compares depend on TUCs and ComOpps, and those things move quickly.

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          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Originally posted by Patman View Post
            IMO, pretty good... some of it depends upon UNH staying above the line and BC ending the Friars season... I'll start going through some of the tools Monday night to generate worst cases but the one positive thing about the end of the season is that it can't get worse... or at least by that much... teams need to jump in front of you and at this stage many of those teams are already at home.

            On the other hand, location is up to the Wheel of Fate as it were. If you are a #1 you have your best advantage... #2 better... #3 becomes iffy. There's quite away to fall in order not to make the tournament... next weekend would have to be, frankly, flat out ridiculous.
            I agree Patman. I can get Lowell as low as 14th, if BU loses to Maine, and Western wins the Mason at the Joe. Several other things have to happen as well. But then, for Lowell to fall out of the field, 2 upsets among HE, ECAC, and WCHA would be necessary. HE of course is very unlikely, because in this scenario, we are creating an HE tourney like this: Prov over BC, Maine over BU, Prov over Maine. That's almost impossible. WCHA would require a strange list of things, because I am assuming good results for UND and DU to make Lowell lose those compares.

            All in all, I would say there might be a way to get them out, but it would be a one in a million scenario.
            Last edited by Numbers; 03-11-2012, 09:42 PM.

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            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              One more odd TUC situation. Right now, RIT qualifies as a TUC. If they would lose next Friday, they would fall from that status, and hurt Union College in the process. Specifically their compares to Lowell and UND.
              Last edited by Numbers; 03-11-2012, 10:51 PM.

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              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                So if Western loses to Miami and BGSU loses Friday, would Northern be in as long as no upsets occur?
                NMU

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                • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Originally posted by NMUFAN21 View Post
                  So if Western loses to Miami and BGSU loses Friday, would Northern be in as long as no upsets occur?
                  Northern has to pass Western in RPI. I believe CCHA has a consolation game. So, Northern requires Western to lose to Miami, and then on Saturday, if Western plays Michigan, they have to lose. If they play BG, lose or tie works for Northern. In the case where Western plays Mich on Saturday, BG would of course have to lose to Miami.

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                  • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    Northern has to pass Western in RPI. I believe CCHA has a consolation game. So, Northern requires Western to lose to Miami, and then on Saturday, if Western plays Michigan, they have to lose. If they play BG, lose or tie works for Northern. In the case where Western plays Mich on Saturday, BG would of course have to lose to Miami.
                    Alright, so say it's Western and Bowling Green in the consolation, a WMU win would knock Northern out?
                    NMU

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                    • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      pairwise predictor is up an running...

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                      • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by NMUFAN21 View Post
                        Alright, so say it's Western and Bowling Green in the consolation, a WMU win would knock Northern out?
                        Correct.

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                        • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by gscott13 View Post
                          pairwise predictor is up an running...
                          And from the looks of it, if North Dakota wins the WCHA and the rest of the top seeds win in the other conferences, the Sioux will be a #1 seed.

                          WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
                          WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
                          WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
                          WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
                          WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
                          Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
                          Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
                          Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
                          ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard.
                          ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
                          ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
                          ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
                          CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
                          CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
                          CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
                          CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
                          Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
                          Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
                          Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

                          Which results in...

                          1. BC
                          2. Michigan
                          3. North Dakota
                          3. Minnesota Duluth
                          3. BU
                          6. Union
                          6. Ferris State
                          8. Miami
                          9. Lowell
                          10. Minnesota
                          10. Maine
                          10. Cornell
                          13. Denver
                          14. Michigan State
                          14. Western Michigan
                          23. Air Force

                          North Dakota
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                          • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            First playing around with the predictor -

                            Minnesota appears safe. I can get them as low as tied with Cornell for the last 2 spots, but I can't get them out.

                            Denver and Cornell, on the other hand, are not totally safe. There is an odd scenario with Providence, Mich Tech, Western, and Harvard winning their conferences, as well as AF over RIT in AHA final, that puts Cornell and Denver out.

                            Denver, also, believe it or not, can still get as high as #3 overall.

                            UND the same potential upside.

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                            • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                              And from the looks of it, if North Dakota wins the WCHA and the rest of the top seeds win in the other conferences, the Sioux will be a #1 seed.

                              WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
                              WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
                              WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
                              WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
                              WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
                              Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
                              Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
                              Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
                              ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard.
                              ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
                              ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
                              ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
                              CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
                              CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
                              CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
                              CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
                              Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
                              Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
                              Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

                              Which results in...

                              1. BC
                              2. Michigan
                              3. North Dakota
                              3. Minnesota Duluth
                              3. BU
                              6. Union
                              6. Ferris State
                              8. Miami
                              9. Lowell
                              10. Minnesota
                              10. Maine
                              10. Cornell
                              13. Denver
                              14. Michigan State
                              14. Western Michigan
                              23. Air Force

                              FS23, Keep playing with that. I think you may find that NoDak is a #1 in almost any case where they win the Broadmoor. I want to take some time tomorrow, but I think the same is true for DU and Minnesota as well.

                              That would be something: If UND and DU win on Thursday, the rest of the weekend at the X would be a battle for a #1 seed.

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                              • Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                                Heading into championship weekend:

                                1. BC
                                2. Michigan
                                3. UMD
                                4. Miami
                                5. BU
                                6. Union
                                7. Ferris State
                                8. Minnesota
                                9. UML
                                10. Maine
                                11. Denver/UND
                                12. UND/Denver
                                13. Cornell
                                14. MSU
                                15. WMU
                                16. Air Force

                                Worcester:

                                1. BC
                                2. Ferris State
                                3. Maine
                                4. Western Michigan

                                St. Paul:

                                1. Michigan
                                2. Minnesota
                                3. UML
                                4. Air Force

                                GB:

                                1. UMD
                                2. Union
                                3. North Dakota
                                4. MSU

                                Bridgeport:

                                1. Miami
                                2. BU
                                3. Denver
                                4. Cornell

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